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Making the case for natural gas vehicles

It was interesting to read a Houston Chronicle reporter’s account of the Natural Gas Vehicle USA conference, which just took place in that city. Ryan Holeywell’s conclusion in “The road ahead still isn’t clear for natural gas trucks,” is that companies are quite skeptical about investing in natural gas vehicle (NGV) conversions.

Holeywell cites some impressive sources; UPS can’t get a return on investment in natural gas-fueled tractors unless they travel 500 miles a day, according to Jeff Yapp, UPS vice president for global automotive engineering and operations. Dennis Beal, vice president of global vehicles at FedEx Express, said that trucks that run on natural gas cost much more than their gasoline and diesel counterparts.

I would say there are a few points about the alternative fuel missing from that article………

Fuel cost savings: Compressed natural gas has been costing users about $2.25 recently in gasoline-gallon equivalent (GGE) pricing compared to diesel, which has been in the $3.90 range recently; gasoline has been about $3.65 in the national average price. Diesel and gasoline prices are likely to go up in the wake of the conflict being experienced in Iraq and instability within other key suppliers of oil to the US market. Energy analysts expect natural gas pricing to remain stable in the US over the next 10 years due to the abundant supply. Several fleets are in the process of making or reinstating contractual agreements with CNG suppliers to lock in the fuel price over a period of time. While alternative fuel tax credits expired at the end of 2013, businesses would be able to take another $0.50 to $0.75 GGE off that price if the tax credits come back; that could bring the cost of CNG down to as low as $1 GGE in some locations, said John Coleman, fleet sustainability and technology manager at Ford Motor Co.

UPS and FedEx are supporters: UPS does see natural gas as the “big game changer,” according to Scott Wicker, the company’s chief sustainability officer. The transport company can save 40% in fuel costs running its long-haul semi-tractor fleet on natural gas instead of gasoline or diesel. Reducing gasoline and diesel is part of the company’s mission to cut emissions and operate more efficiently, Wicker said. FedEx is testing out CNG and liquefied natural gas (LNG) vehicles in its fleet; Frederick Smith, chairman and CEO of FedEx Corp., expects 5% to 30% of all US long-distance trucks to be fueled by CNG or LNG over the next 10 years – as the cost of the trucks come down and fueling stations become more common.

Incentives: While federal tax credits expired at the end of 2013 on the fuel, there are several state programs out there that can reduce the cost of vehicle conversions and fueling. If you look at the US Department of Energy’s Alternative Fuels Data Center, there’s a map of the US by states to click on. In Texas, when the new fiscal year begins in September, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) will administer its next NGV Grant Program. Qualifying vehicles must be on-road vehicles with a gross vehicle weight rating of more than 8,500 pounds and must be certified to current federal emissions standards. TCEQ can also award grants through the Clean Transportation Triangle Program, which supports the development of a network of natural gas fueling stations along the interstate highways connecting Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, and Forth Worth.

Fueling infrastructure: Besides privately held CNG and LNG fueling stations, publicly accessible stations are starting to see the light of day. The US Department of Energy’s Alternative Fuels Data Center reports there are now 713 CNG stations and 53 LNG stations in the US. These numbers tend to increase each month and are expected to provide a refueling infrastructure alongside the nation’s highways in the near future.

Emissions reductions: As panelists talked about at the Natural Gas Vehicle USA conference, the challenges and costs to deploy NGVs can be pervasive. Building NGV refueling stations can be up there in cost, and conversions can be in the $8,000 to $18,000 range depending on the vehicle’s weight and other factors. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions by about 25% compared to diesel and gasoline engines does help make the case. Waco-Texas based Central Freight Lines has 114 CNG vehicles in its 1,600 unit fleet; driving range has fallen short of that needed for fleet operations that were estimated when installing 75-gallon CNG tanks into its trucks. All that being said, the company remains committed to the technology and has 50 more NGVs on order. “We’ll continue to invest in CNG because we’re committed that it’s the right thing to do and the right way to go,” said Mari Borowski, director of business development for Central Freight Lines.

Big Picture: Great month for EV and hybrid sales, Your opinionated comments are requested

Automakers experienced their highest monthly US sales figure ever in May for battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and their second highest month for hybrid vehicle sales. Overall plug-in sales reached 12,453 – with 5,802 of them battery electric vehicles and 6,651 plug-in hybrids. For hybrids, 52,227 units were sold in the US during May, its second highest sales month on record. Plug-in vehicles hit the 211,097 sales mark in the US by the end of May; that’s more than double the total recorded one year ago. Nissan had a particularly good month for Leaf sales, hitting 3,117 units for the month – it’s best month ever and the first time Leaf sales passed the 3,000 mark. It also brought the Leaf past the 50,000 mark for its US sales – 52,511 sold, to be precise. The Leaf is still behind the Chevrolet Volt for overall sales and highest monthly sales number. The Volt continues to be sold at a lower level this year, coming in at 1,684 sold in May – only marginally up from the 1,607 sold one year ago. Sales were thin for other EV models including the Cadillac ELR at 52 units sold in May, the Honda Fit EV at 33, and the plug-in hybrid Accord selling 46 units in May. Toyota saw a much better month for its Prius Plug-in, which sold 2,692 units in May.

Hey there, opinionated people: I would bet that several of you readers have interesting perspectives on clean transportation – cool new technologies, geopolitics, economics, environmental issues, how something could succeed, why another is bound to fail…….. Your opinions are requested – and you’ll find the “Leave a reply” link at the top of every post in Green Auto Market. I have met some interesting people through reader comments, along with what I regularly post on LinkedIn and Twitter. So please keep it coming!

And in other clean transportation news…….

Renault-Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn has an opinion that a lot of people would disagree with – driverless cars could be on roads four years from now. Most of the forecasts think it will actually take longer (maybe 10 years), but Ghosn and Google have more ambitious expectations. The real stumbling block, according to Ghosn, is regulatory red tape. “The problem isn’t technology, it’s legislation, and the whole question of responsibility that goes with these cars moving around … and especially who is responsible once there is no longer anyone inside,” Ghosn said at a French Automobile Club event on Tuesday.
Freightliner and Hino Trucks have been approved for the New York Tuck-Voucher Incentive Program. Freightliner’s M2 106 diesel electric-hybrid truck and Hino Trucks’ 195h and 195h-DC diesel electric hybrid Class 5 cabover engine trucks have been approved. New York’s program provides $19 million in incentives for clean vehicle technologies. The goal is to promote clean air by encouraging the adoption of advanced vehicle technologies in commercial trucks and buses.
Renewable Energy Group Inc., the nation’s largest biodiesel producer, announced the acquisition today of Dynamic Fuels LLC, which operates the first US large-scale renewable diesel facility. Dynamic was formed in 2007 by Tyson Foods Inc. and Syntroleum Corp. as a 50-50 joint venture. The facility in southeast Louisiana has the potential of producing 75 million gallons a year of renewable diesel made from animal byproducts.
Lux Research reports that China and India dominate Asia’s alternative fuels landscape, but there’s still a lot of work to be done to hit government targets. China followed the US’s 10% ethanol mandate, but will only reach 4% of its gasoline by 2017. India is pushing for jatropha as its biodiesel blend; the Indian government wants to see it reach a 20% biofuels mandate by 2017, but the nation is way off – biofuels will only account for 0.6% of its diesel and 0.3% of its gasoline by 2017, according to Lux Research. Natural gas vehicles (NGVs) in China and India are being driven by cutting fuel expense – the fuel is costing nearly half that of gasoline – and the need to cut air pollution. India currently has the sixth largest volume of NGVs in the world, mostly in its public transportation.
Clean diesel passenger vehicles are selling much more than what I would have thought, according to an R.L. Polk & Co. research report commissioned by Diesel Technology Forum. The report states that diesel passenger vehicle registrations rose 11.5% from 6.3 million to almost 7.1 million between 2010 and 2013. During that same timeframe, hybrid vehicle registrations leaped 64.6% from 1.7 million to 2.8 million. It does seem a bit confusing, as recent new car data reports have shown hybrids to be a much higher sales volume than clean diesel cars. I would imagine that has to do with quite a few diesel pickups being included in the R.L. Polk numbers, versus other market reports that just include diesel passenger cars primarily sold by German automakers in the US market.
US fuel economy of new vehicles sold went up 0.4 miles per gallon in May to 25.6 mpg. That took place event the sales of trucks and utility vehicles were strong last month.
Toyota’s hydrogen fuel cell vehicle will go into production earlier than originally announced, with production planned for mid-December 2014. Toyota says that will lead to sales starting before the end of this year instead of the original intention of starting some time in 2015.
Ford Motor Co. has an affiliate relationship with Samsung Group that will install lithium-ion batteries and regenerative brakes on non-hybrid cars. This will be done to reduce carbon emissions; Ford also unveiled the prototype for a super-lightweight version of its Fusion.
BMW just began deliveries of its i8 plug-in hybrid sports car at 126,000 euro ($135,700). It’s built on a lightweight carbon-fiber frame, is more fuel efficient than a Toyota Prius and can go faster than a Porsche 911; BMW refers to it as a “brand shaper.” But it faces stiff competition from the Tesla Model S, which starts at 65,740 euros in Germany.
Speaking of Tesla, CEO Elon Musk said he wants to name its third planned model, a compact battery electric car, the Model E. Ford got wind of it and threatened to sue, making reference to a 2010 agreement where Tesla agreed not to register or use Model E, which is part of Ford’s trademark. Musk explained it to CNNMoney: “A friend asked me at a party, ‘What are you going to name the third-generation car?’ Well, we have the S and the X, so we might as well make it the E.” Ford heard about Musk’s idea and called him, saying it would sue Tesla for using its Model E trademark. “And we’re like, Ford’s killing SEX … that’s terrible. So, OK, fine, we won’t use the Model E,” Musk said
Nissan has offered more insight on its plug-in vehicle strategy. Andy Palmer, the company’s head of global product development, said that start of plug-in hybrid production for Nissan remains slated for late 2015, presumably coming to market in one or more model-year 2016 vehicles. Nissan will be selling its second electric vehicle in Japan starting in October – the e-NV200 compact commercial van. It will cost between 3.88 million yen and 4.79 million yen in Japan (between $37,900 and $46,700). It’s not coming to North America anytime soon or possibly forever due to vehicle range and charging network concerns. It will be a slow start – selling about 500 units a month in Japan, where it qualifies for up to 850,000 yen ($8,295) in government incentives.

What leasing means for Tesla Model S and other electric vehicles

Tesla Motors has been getting a lot of attention in the auto industry lately as it attempts to bypass state franchise laws and sell directly to consumers. With Tesla going outside the traditional dealer system, the company has come up with its own creative leasing program – what it calls a guaranteed “buy back” program where Tesla offers to buy back the electric sports car between 36 and 39 months. Leasing, whether through buyback or traditional leasing, has played a dominant role in sales of the Tesla Model S, Nissan Leaf, Chevrolet Volt, and other EVs.

Scot Hall, Executive Vice President at Swapalease.com, has been closely watching what’s going on with Tesla’s leases – and other EV leases through OEM captive finance arms. Swapalease.com helps its customers exit their vehicle leases early by marketing their car lease to lease buyers seeking a short term lease assumption or lease transfer; it’s the world’s largest automotive lease marketplace and monitors every type of lease out in the marketplace.

Hall thinks that leasing makes quite a lot of sense for consumers interested in trying out the new technology in EVs. “It’s a little but unknown,” Hall said. “Leasing resolves it.”

Tesla’s guaranteed residual value on the Model S has been based on the Mercedes Benz S Class as the benchmark – Tesla promises the Model S won’t depreciate any lower than the S Class; and Tesla will buy back the car at the agreed price. It’s not a lease as the car owner has to finance and pay taxes on the full vehicle. The $7,500 federal tax credit is only available when you lease an electric vehicle through a local dealership. Tesla has a direct sales model and does not sell through dealers, essentially preventing them from offering a standard lease program.

Beyond the Tesla Model S, EV leases through other automakers have been standard and very similar to any other lease transaction, Hall said; they’re usually carried by OEM captive finance arms. The Model S has been outside the Swapalease program, though there were a few Tesla Roadsters in Swapalease. Hall said that for Nissan Leaf lessees participating in Swapalease, they have found the payment offering attractive, and overall, it’s been a satisfying experience for them.

Some automotive analysts wonder what residual values will look like for EVs coming off-lease. While there’s been concern over their market values expressed by Kelley Blue Book and NADA Used Car Guide, Hall doesn’t it expect it to be a significant problem. He hasn’t seen dramatic changes yet in plug-in EVs or hybrids coming off-lease, and consumers are shielded from residuals when they go off-lease. Used car prices are expected to go down this year, and EVs could potentially see an even greater challenge than other vehicle categories, he said. It is a bit early in the used car market off-lease cycle to know for sure.

Some of the EV leases may have been structured with overly optimistic price valuations to make the EVs more price competitive; but captive finance arms are being more realistic than they were 10-to-15 years ago on residual values overall, Hall said. Used EVs can also present OEMs and dealers with an opportunity for certified pre-owned vehicle programs as well, he said.

While some of the lease prices are up there (especially for the Model S), ownership cost isn’t necessarily a deal breaker for consumers interested in EVs, Hall said. Some of them have environmental concerns and don’t just look at competitive pricing on the market. EVs can be more profitable for OEMs long term.

Swapalease’s staff have had access to two Chevy Volts, and they’ve enjoyed the experience. They are looking forward to the next generation Volt coming out, which should double the battery driving range, Hall said.

What EPA electric power rules will cost automakers, DOE fuel cell vehicle grants, and other news from Capitol Hill

It’s always good to stay current on what’s happening in Washington, DC, with new regulations and funding programs regularly rolling out. Last week, more details came out on the latest in electric power regulations, grants for fuel cell vehicle projects, renewable fuel requirements for ethanol, and on the impact of the federal standards on heavy-duty truck mileage and emissions………..

The US Environmental Protection Agency’s announcement last week Monday on electric utilities reducing carbon 30% (coming mainly from coal-powered plants) had some good news for automakers. While German automakers have been hit hard financially by government mandates that they convert their power over to renewable energy sources, that doesn’t appear to be the case for US-based production plants. Jim Doyle, president of Business Forward, and Debra Menk, an automotive economist, gave a teleconference presentation last week on that issue (coming from a report released by Business Forward). By the time utilities convert over to renewables (by 2020), it’s expected to only cost automakers an additional $7 per car or truck to utilize that clean energy. Electricity only makes for about 1% of an assembly plant’s total expenses, so automakers won’t see much of an impact that they feel compelled to pass on to consumers.
The US Department of Energy will issue $7 million for hydrogen fuel cell vehicle development. Meteria, based in Pasadena, Calif., will get $2 million to for its new resin system that will reduce the cost of hydrogen storage systems; $1.2 million goes to Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Sandia National Laboratories, and San Francisco-based Ardica for hydrogen storage system improvements (each one gets $1.2 million); and HRL Laboratories of Malibu, Calif., will receive around $1 million of the funding.
The EPA appears to be putting the ethanol compliance issue on the backburner. Refiners have been given a compliance extension – from June 30 to Sept. 30 of this year – on blending 16.55 billion ethanol-equivalent gallons of renewable fuels into petroleum. That comes from the EPA ruling on 2013 renewable fuel requirements; EPA thinks refiners should know the 2014 requirements before the end of the 2013 compliance year. This will affect the decisions of refiners to bank renewable fuel credits for use in the future, according to the EPA. It may give the White House some breathing room on a battleground between oil companies and refiners and corn growers and ethanol producers.
Federal fuel economy and emissions standards for heavy-duty trucks will lead to significant fuel savings and are likely good for the trucking industry, according to Jim Sweeney, vice president of capital equipment for AmeriQuest Transportation Services. “The increase in overall maintenance costs for this new technology is undeniable — but looking at the big picture, the economic and operational benefits that come along with these initiatives seem to far outweigh the bad,” Sweeney wrote in his blog. Similar to passenger cars, the EPA and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration adopted the first phase of this program in 2011 for heavy-duty vehicles coming out in model years 2014 to 2018. The second phase is being worked out now by the federal agencies with truck makers.

Big Picture: EPA’s new ruling on power plant emissions will be battleground, Eight states offer sweet incentives and perks to draw in car shoppers to zero emission vehicles

The first phase of a national policy that’s as big as the 54.5 mpg by 2025 rule and the Keystone XL pipeline debate was announced yesterday: the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed that carbon emissions be reduced 30% from 2005 levels by 2030 at US electric power plants. That means more than 600 existing coal-fired plants will see some big changes transitioning over to renewable sources like solar and wind; natural gas is cleaner than coal and has been replacing a lot of coal in recent years – and may likely see an increase if added to the rules. The EPA will finalize the carbon pollution rules a year from now, and it will also cover particle pollution, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide reductions. Transportation is said to produce somewhere around 25% (and up to 30% depending on the data source) of greenhouse gas emissions in the US; coal-fired plants are thought to produce one third of greenhouse gas emissions in the US – taking away the benefits of electric vehicles and energy efficient buildings. If adopted, the EPA regulations can be implemented through a state-federal partnership; states can work alone or they can develop multi-state plans. Environmental groups such as the Sierra Club and Natural Resources Defense Fund love the plan, and groups such as the National Association of Manufacturers hate it; some electric utility companies have deep concerns over whether systems are in place to transition over to renewables. There will be a classic debate on whether the environmental or economic aspects are more important, though some experts say that these two disciplines can be combined if done the right way when adapting to the new EPA energy policy.

And in other clean transportation news…….

The eight-state zero emission vehicle (ZEV) coalition wants to offer incentives and more perks to get car shoppers to buy more battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. California, New York, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Vermont, said in a report that they’ll be offering more vehicle purchase incentives (like rebates and tax credits) and other enticements like carpool lane stickers and preferential parking.
The Green Parking Council (GPC), an affiliate of the International Parking Institute (IPI), launched the Green Garage Certification program yesterday. It will be similar to the US Green Building Council’s LEED certification, and recognizes and inspires high standards in sustainable parking facility design, technology, operations, and management.
More green car awards were announced: The 2013 Tesla Model S won top scores in the AAA Automotive Club of Southern California’s 2014 Green Car Guide. Following the Model S were the 2012 Toyota RAV4 EV, the 2014 Audi A7 TDI, the 2013 Lexus GS Hybrid, and the 2013 Nissan Leaf on the top five. Half of the top 10 were clean diesel models. Hyundai and Kia took the crown away from Honda (which had been No. 1 since 1998) in the Union of Concerned Scientists’ (UCS’s) annual rating of the greenest cars and manufacturing process. Smaller, turbo-charged engines and adding hybrid versions of their most popular models – the Hyundai Sonata and Kia Optima – are going in the right direction, according to the UCS. The United State’s eight bestselling automakers are all improving their environmental performance thanks to new technologies and stronger standards for fuel efficiency and tailpipe emissions, the UCS said.
SolarCity is trying out a discount program to get more consumers to adopt solar panels on their houses – the company now has an alliance with Groupon to get consumers interested in making the purchase in 84 US markets. Under the limited-time offer, customers can earn a $400 discount on their SolarCity contract; that would come out to about three-to-four months of free electricity on top of a no-cost rooftop solar installation.
Google Inc. will be working with Roush Enterprises Inc. near Detroit to assemble Google’s self-driving prototype vehicles. Roush is expected to retrofit a yet-to-be-identified existing model at its Allen Park, Mich., prototyping facility near Detroit to help Google take another major step on the road to driverless cars. Roush is also known for high-performance racing gear and propane autogas vehicle conversions.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk is staying busy – he said that his SpaceX company will be making a reusable Space Taxi capsule within two years that can transport astronauts to the International Space Station. SpaceX’s Dragon V2 spaceship can carry as many as seven people and as much as four tons of cargo, Musk said at the SpaceX factory and headquarters in Hawthorne, Calif.
Can the 2014 Honda Accord Hybrid really get the mileage on its window sticker? Depends on who you ask. Consumer Reports says that it was just averaging 40 mpg in the EPA Combined Cycle – seven gallons below what’s on the window sticker. The Green Car Reports team found the opposite – its 47 mpg rating (50 mpg city and 45 mpg highway) is realistic – and it’s the main reason these editors named it the Green Car Reports’ 2014 Best Car to Buy.

Why I’m passionate about (and obsessed with) clean transportation and alt-fuel vehicles

“When written in Chinese, the word crisis is composed of two characters – one represents danger, and the other represents opportunity.” U.S. Senator John F. Kennedy said in a 1959 speech.

I’ve been fortunate to have fascinating conversations with several readers of this newsletter in recent years. That could have happened while preparing for an Automotive Digest video interview, during an article interview, while seated near each other at industry conferences, or while standing in line at ride and drive events. Some people in my social circles tune out while I sermonize on the benefits of clean transportation being deployed in the US and around the world. Other people have their share of passion on the topic – including personally driving a hybrid, electric vehicle, natural gas car, or something similar. Sometimes they manage hundreds of these vehicles in their fleets.

Beyond the bells and whistles of a particular green car, here are typical points that I, and many of my peers, make during these conversations………

Reducing tailpipe and carbon emissions. As the article on China covers this week, the number of vehicles on roads is increasing and bringing serious ramifications to urban centers around the world. Ground transportation makes up a big chunk of carbon emissions and air quality impact – whether that be through passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, or buses. I tend to be “technology neutral” about how we do it. Some advocate plug-in electric vehicles as the only way to go, or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, or natural gas vehicles, or clean diesel, or small cars that get high mileage, or……. you name it. I tend to support all of them – as long as the case can be made that they’re all built on scientifically tested, safe technologies and fuels that meet government rules.
Turning problems into solutions. As you read the quote from JFK above from my consulting website, it points to a realistic assessment of global conditions. China, India, and Brazil are the emerging economic markets – the US no longer plays its dominant role, nor does Europe. All of these economies are becoming more interlinked and dependent on each other (as was clearing demonstrated by the Japanese earthquake of 2011). For the US, clean transportation and alternative fuel vehicles represent four huge opportunities: job creation; research and development for advanced technologies; breakthrough technology and fuel innovations; and capital investments. It is definitely tough to gain support from venture capitalists in Silicon Valley and other regions for green vehicles compared to smartphones and tablets – but there’s a lot of growing interest out there in clean transportation and for cleantech overall. Turning waste into energy also points to another problem-into-solution, such as renewable natural gas being made from sewage and garbage.
Training and development opportunities. There are a lot of Millennials/GenYers out there who’ve had great, expensive college educations but are working at Starbucks; along with talented service technicians who want good paying jobs. There a quite a few people in their 40s and 50s who’ve burned out on their office jobs or have been laid off during the Great Recession. How about getting them into automotive and charging and fueling infrastructure jobs? There’s a need for engineers, designers, service technicians, charging station installers, renewable energy technicians, alternative fuel station and storage tank experts, vehicle service and repair departments, emergency first responders, battery makers, dealers, vehicle remarketers, and others to make clean transportation thrive. And don’t forget educators – there are some excellent training and development programs out there that need our support.
Recovery from fossil fuel addiction. As 2GreenEnergy’s editor Craig Shields depicts in blog posts and books, fossil fuels used in electricity and transportation dominate decisions in Washington and in corporate boardrooms. That is starting to change, but the challenges are enormous. While Shields would likely not get along with former president George H.W. Bush, they would agree on one thing: “We’re addicted to oil,” as Bush said in his State of the Union speech in 2006. Former oil tycoon and natural gas champion T. Boone Pickens would agree with that statement and always talks about how many barrels of foreign oil the US imports every day. As for me, I would go back to the JFK quote – turn problems into opportunities. Whether you believe in climate change or not, how about cleaning air quality, creating jobs, and recovering from oil addiction through clean transportation and alternative fuel vehicles? That sounds pretty darn good to me.
This isn’t just a momentary fad. All of the technologies and fuels have gone through spurts of possibility in the past before quickly fading away – natural gas vehicles (NGVs) in the early 1990s, electric vehicles (EVs) in the late 1990s, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in the early 2000s, and flex-fuel vehicles in the second half of the past decade……… This time, none of them are likely to go away. EVs have recently hit an overall sales trend stronger than the early days of hybrids; there are more green vehicles being announced by OEMs or in the pipelines than ever before; the charging and fueling infrastructure is moving forward at public and private stations; incentive programs aren’t going away anytime soon; gasoline and diesel prices are high enough for consumers to take notice; corporations, government agencies, and non-profit organizations are adding clean transportation to their sustainability programs and policies, and they seem to be expecting that their employees comply; and sales figures for EVs, hybrids, clean diesel, NGVs are still small, but nearly all the forecasts say the numbers will be growing through the next 10 years along with hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, propane autogas, and biofuels. And take a look at media coverage in a given week, such as what gets summarized in Green Auto Market. There are always significant, substantial vehicle launches, studies, government policies and incentives, partnerships, and innovations. It appears that clean transportation and alternative fuel vehicles are here to stay.

China a great market for green vehicles as its urban air pollution worsens

The Chinese government will soon release details of its plan to remove six million vehicles from its roads as air pollution worsens. The government recently acknowledged failing to meet its pollution reduction goals for 2011-2013 as its cities continue experiencing dramatic growth trends. Chinese cities such as Beijing have strict emissions standards in place, but enforcement has been lax and has not really addressed the problem.

Chinese citizens have been moving from small towns and rural communities to mega-cities and buying their first-ever cars; and Chinese industries have been acquiring their share of passenger and commercial vehicles. There are about 240 million vehicles in operation there today, with half of them being passenger cars.

The six million vehicles will likely be older – registered before 2005, according to the Chinese government. The US government addressed this problem with the successful Cash for Clunkers program in 2009, where owners of nearly 700,000 older, low mileage vehicles were given cash rebates as they traded in their gas guzzlers for newer, more fuel efficient vehicles.

In China, the first five million vehicles will be taken from Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Guangzhou and surrounding regions; the government will later announce where the remaining one million of these vehicles will come from. The government’s plan will also likely address bringing the cleanest grades of gasoline and diesel to Beijing, Shanghai, and other major cities where most of these vehicles subside.

China has been adopting other policies and programs to deal with air pollution and carbon emissions as its vehicle sales hit record numbers (it’s the largest new vehicle sales market in the world today). Taxi fleets and public buses in major cities are now required to switch to natural gas or battery power. Electric vehicles (EVs) have been a focal point of government policies, though these sales numbers have so far been slim.

BMW Group and Tesla Motors think that will be turning around sometime soon. Karsten Engel, head of BMW’s China operations, expects China to become the world’s biggest market for EVs in at most five years. More charging stations will be deployed and government policies are promoting clean, light vehicles to reduce its air pollution problem. “We expect that the Chinese car market for electromobility will become the largest markets for those cars in a few years,” Engel said. “Because you have supply now, there are cars coming on the market. We are coming with ours, others are coming as well.”

Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently traveled to China to deliver the first eight Model S sedans that were sold to Chinese owners. Musk thinks Tesla’s future in China looks very good – and other automakers are planning on bringing several new EV models to China in the near future.

Big Picture: GM wants auto industry to go sustainable, California carbon credit webinar coming up

General Motors Corp. is taking on something beyond one of the largest recalls in auto industry history — GM is challenging its industry peers to do the right thing – build cars in a sustainable, energy efficient, responsible manner. “People care about more than the cars,” said GM CEO Mary Barra in the automaker’s corporate environmental and sustainability report. “They care how we build them, and how we engage with the world around us. This knowledge, and the discipline that flows from it, is transforming our approach to product design, manufacturing, safety, quality, the environment, customer care and a host of other areas at a remarkable pace,” Barra said. For several years, GM has taken on that challenge in its manufacturing plant landfill and energy efficiency campaign; that saved the company $162 million in combined energy costs last year. Good examples of it came from removing coal-fired boilers at its Detroit-Hamtramck assembly plant, and saving $10 million in annual energy costs by using landfill gas at its Fort Wayne and Orion assembly plants. Another recently announced accomplishment was the installation of its 401^st electric vehicle charging station at its US production and business facilities. More than 20% of the stations use electricity powered by solar canopies so that employees can cleanly charge their Chevrolet Volts, Spark EVs, and Cadillac ELR plug-in hybrids.

And in other clean transportation news…….

Interested in earning California cap-and-trade credits, or entering the California Air Resources Board’s (CARB) cap-and-trade carbon credit auctions? ICIS and Environmental Leader are hosting a one-hour carbon market webinar on June 4, 2014, at 2:00 EDT. That came out of California’s Assembly Bill 32 and is still in its early phase, and transportation is part of it. CARB has set up several market instruments to help companies manage their carbon compliance obligations, which means purchasing California Carbon Allowances. Learn more and register here.
Green Auto Market now has an affiliates shopping page linking readers to participating services. Affiliates include the Zipcar car sharing service, the TrueCar pricing and information website, TigerGPS driving navigation, K-Tor Generators human powered portable energy, Advance Auto Parts, and others.
Electric Drive Transportation Association (EDTA) held its annual conference last week in Indianapolis. One of the central topics was the EV Everywhere Grand Challenge; that’s the US Energy Department’s 10-year vision to enable the US to be the first nation in the world to produce plug-in electric vehicles that are as affordable for the average American family as today’s gasoline powered vehicles by 2022. And read the feature article below on EDTA’s partnership with Andretti Formula E.
BMW is banking on carbon fiber to make its plug-in and other models more energy efficient, but carbon fiber does have its share of critics. They’re saying that the supply chain is too long and isn’t eco-friendly. BMW makes the case that its lightweight material holistically reduces its carbon footprint.
Hands-free, wearable computer eyeglass Google Glass is working with SemaConnect in offering an app that locates electric vehicle charging stations. But that only applies to SemaConnect’s ChargePro network that only has about 300 US and Canada charging stations so far.
The bad news from Navigant Research is that light-duty vehicle sales will grow from nearly 84.1 million in 2014 to about 127 million in 2035. The good news is that the market analyst firm predicts that less than half of them will be conventional internal combustion engine vehicles. Light duty stop-start, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, natural gas, and fuel cell vehicles will make up a large share of it.
Navigant Research also predicted that biofuels will make up 7.5% of the fuel mix for road transportation by 2022. That percentage will be made up of ethanol blends, cellulosic feedstock biofuels, biodiesel, drop-in biofuels used in aviation, and other advanced biofuels. It’s coming from concerns expressed by many governments, corporations, and individuals who see biofuels as a promising solution to solving the energy security, environmental, and economic challenges associated with petroleum dependency.

More good news for green racing enthusiasts

Green racing events continue to be a strong platform showing off breakthrough vehicle technologies and clean fuel potential. They’re helping increase public awareness (and coolness) for green vehicles and are vital testing grounds for the technologies. Last week saw two public announcements that were likely very good news for green racing enthusiasts; and a feature article on the latest developments in NASCAR’s green campaign; and part three of the EcoCAR college competition is underway.

Andretti Formula E has created a strategic alliance with Electric Drive Transportation Association and its member companies. The alliance’s goal is to collaborate on initiatives to advance and promote the use of electric drive technologies in mainstream applications. In addition, Andretti Formula E has named GoElectricDrive to its list of official charity initiatives. “The opportunity for EDTA and the GoElectricDrive Foundation to join forces with one of the most prestigious and successful organizations in racing history is an important milestone for the electric drive industry, and for the future of sustainable transportation across the United States,” said EDTA President Brian Wynne.
Andretti Formula E will be part of the first American team named to a group of 10 racing organizations worldwide that will compete next year in the new electric vehicle FIA Formula E Championship. Last week, the city of Long Beach, Calif., announced that it will be one of 10 cities that will host the Fédération Internationale de l’Automobile (FIA) Formula E Championship series. Formula E Long Beach ePrix will be round seven of the world’s first all-electric racing series. It will take place on April 4, 2015 – about two weeks ahead of the annual Long Beach Grand Prix, which has been scheduled for April 17-19, 2015. Formula E Long Beach ePrix will take place on a shortened version of the Long Beach Grand Prix circuit in downtown Long Beach – though these electric racers will be much quieter than the usual loud and roaring engines used in Grand Prix racers.
GreenBiz executive editor Joel Makower recently attended the NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race at the Charlotte Motor Speedway. During the racing event, Mike Lynch, vice president, green innovation for NASCAR, presented findings on the latest data from the NASCAR Nation survey of its rabid racing fans. The 2014 study (which updated its 2011 study) found that NASCAR fans are big supporters of renewable fuels, such as ethanol blends; 80% of NASCAR fans recycle, 66% have replaced incandescent light bulbs with more efficient ones, 60% buy energy-efficient appliances, 40% drive or own energy-efficient vehicles, and 25% use public transportation or ridesharing. Two-thirds of NASCAR fans support buying solar panels for use at home, though only 11 percent have done so to date. Compared to non-fans, NASCAR fans are about twice as likely to say their household is “very green” and seeking ways to positively impact the environment. Four out of five NASCAR fans believe climate change is taking place, and three out of four agree they have a personal responsibility to do something about it.
For college students eager to participate in advanced clean technologies, part three of the national four-year competition is about to launch. EcoCAR 3 is the latest US Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Vehicle Technology Competition (AVTC) series and considers itself to be North America’s premier collegiate automotive engineering competition. DOE and General Motors Corp. are “challenging 16 North American universities to redesign a Chevrolet Camaro into a hybrid-electric car that will reduce environmental impact, while maintaining the muscle and performance expected from this iconic American car.” During the four-year program, teams will follow the EcoCAR Vehicle Development Process aligning with GM’s vehicle development process and establishing a plan for research and development, analysis, and validation of the EcoCAR 3 vehicle design.

Prius parent Toyota shifting from EVs to FCVs and advanced hybrids

Toyota Motor Corp. has been carefully watched by advocates of clean vehicles – its Prius became the symbol of innovation in the hybrid space even though several other competitive hybrid models were launched around that time. When Toyota made an agreement in 2010 with Tesla Motors to integrate its electric motor and batteries into the Toyota RAV4 EV, along with Toyota’s $50 million investment in Tesla and Tesla’s takeover of the shuttered NUMMI factory in Fremont, Calif., the working relationship looked very promising. It also helped strengthen Tesla’s promise to become a thriving automaker (which was also supported around that time by Daimler’s investment). The Toyota and Tesla relationship seemed to sour this month when Toyota announced that it will phase out an agreement from 2012 for Tesla to deliver 2,600 battery packs for Toyota’s electric RAV4 over three years.

Since then, a Toyota executive has said that the two companies will continue working together on battery technology even though the initial battery-supply agreement will be ending this year. Osamu Nagata, president and CEO of Toyota Motor Engineering & Manufacturing North America, acknowledged that Tesla has a clear business strategy for developing a better battery. Automakers and their suppliers do need to work together on developing better batteries, he said. Nagata also talked about the future of fuel-cell vehicles, which Toyota has indicated will become a top priority for the company in coming years.

Jim Lentz, CEO of Toyota’s North American region, said during a an interview after Fortune magazine’s Brainstorm Green conference that hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and fuel cell vehicles hold greater promise for Toyota. Battery-electric vehicles make sense in a select way as short range urban vehicles, he said. “But for long-range travel primary vehicles, we feel there are better alternatives, such as hybrids and plug-in hybrids, and tomorrow with fuel cells,” Lentz said.

Hydrogen fuel cells have become cheaper on a cost-per-vehicle basis and are more efficient on a well-to-wheel basis; that’s a primary reason Toyota has turned away from a long-term effort to create a viable battery-electric vehicle. Toyota will soon be launching a fuel cell vehicle in California and is investing $7 million in the FirstElement Fuel campaign to bring hydrogen refueling stations to the state.

Toyota also has high hopes for hybrids and will be expanding its vehicle offerings in years to come. The automaker has developed a new semiconductor it says can boost fuel efficiency in hybrid cars such as the Prius by up to 10%. Test models have so far shown a 5% increase, and Toyota thinks it can commercialize the 10% more efficient semiconductor by 2020.

The new semiconductors will manage the flow of electricity through the power control unit that integrates a hybrid vehicle’s battery, motor, and generator. As competition in the hybrid space increases each model year, Toyota wants to strengthen its position marketing the Prius family and its list of other Toyota and Lexus hybrid models. Hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be an integral part of Toyota meeting government emissions standards and strengthening its image as a leader in advanced, clean vehicles.