Government officials, DMVs, Google, and automakers (especially Nissan) are much more excited about autonomous, driverless cars than are American consumers. A new study by Harris Poll found that 88% of US adults (18 and older) are nervous about riding around in a driverless car. Some of their concerns focus on equipment in a driverless car failing such as a braking software glitch or failed warning sensor alerting the robot driver about upcoming danger. Nearly 60% are worried about liability issues – primarily who’s responsible for the crash if one were to happen. More than half are worried about hackers taking over the car and playing dangerous games. There’s also concern by 37% of the respondents that personal data will be extracted from the car that could be used against the owner. Another news item from last week about automated cars came from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration; the agency announced it’s moving forward on V2V (vehicle-to-vehicle) technology as a key to saving lives and improving traffic flow in congested urban areas. It represents the next generation of safety improvements for NHTSA, and eventually will enhance development of autonomous vehicles that automakers want to put on US roads starting in 2020.

And in other clean transportation news…….

• Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Volt sales were down in January. At 1,252 units sold, the Leaf was way up over a year ago but down from the 2,529 units sold in December. The Volt saw 918 units sold in January, down from 2,392 units in December and 1,140 from January 2013. January has been a tougher month for sales and bad weather through much of the US hurt sales, too.
• President Obama voiced support for natural gas vehicles during his State of the Union speech last week. He urged Congress to support construction of natural gas fueling stations for American cars and trucks. It’s part of his “all-of-the-above” energy strategy to create new jobs in America, reduce US dependency on foreign oil, and help curb climate change.
• AltCar Expo will make its Northern California debut on March 14-15, 2014, at Craneway Pavilion in Richmond, Calif. Similar to AltCar Expo conferences in Santa Monica and Dallas, this one will start with an Industry/Fleet day and then will be followed by a Public Day; ride and drives will be available.  Partners include: Honda, Nissan, California Fuel Cell Partnership, San Francisco Clean Cities, and East Bay Clean Cities.
• Happy birthday to Green Car Reports, which just celebrated five years and 9,800 articles. According to senior editor John Voelcker, “many people worked long hours for very little reward to tell the stories and spread the word that green cars come in a variety of forms and can be propelled by many different forms of energy.”
• At the Washington Auto Show last week, US Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz said that nearly $50 million will be available to accelerate research and development of new vehicle technologies. This new funding includes support for the Energy Department’s EV Everywhere Grand Challenge, a broader initiative launched in March 2012 to make plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) more affordable and convenient to own and drive than today’s gasoline-powered vehicles within the next 10 years.
• Clean Cities just released its 2014 Vehicle Buyer’s Guide – a comprehensive list of 2014 hybrids and vehicles that run on propane, CNG, electricity, E-85, and biodiesel. Like its previous reports, the guide focuses on fuel economy, emissions, information on fuel types, and vehicle pricing.

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If you’ve been on a conference call with stakeholders, or had a coffee at Starbucks with a few of them, questions always come up:

• What will it take to grow sales of electric vehicles, natural gas vehicles, and other alternative fuels and vehicles?
• Where is the charging and fueling infrastructure going?
• How do you deal with misinformation being thrown out over the internet on alternative fuels and vehicles?
• Are government incentives going away?
• How do you educate regulators (and voters and consumers) on what it really takes for these technologies to work in the marketplace?
• How are automakers going to comply with stringent fuel economy and emissions standards?
• How many years away are we from advanced batteries, fuels, and technologies becoming more economically viable?

Green Auto Market is featuring its first reader survey with the goal of making the newsletter more reader friendly. The survey questions are also designed around gaining insights on your ideas and experience in what it’s going to take for alternative fuel vehicles and clean transportation to move forward in sales, public support, and the regulatory and economic environment.

When you click on the survey link, you’ll find five questions asking for your input on:  topics of interest; issues that need to be addressed to gain more purchasing interest; the importance of stakeholder groups in shaping the industry’s future; related topics you’d like read more about such as renewable energy and futuristic, advanced technologies; and marketing and education methods that you think would be most effective in promoting support for purchasing decisions and public perception.

Results from this survey will be presented soon in an upcoming issue of the newsletter. Your privacy will be respected – survey respondents will not be revealed in coverage of the survey results. Readers of Green Auto Market tend to be active in the new and growing industry – your feedback would be much appreciated. Click here to take the survey.

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The US State Department issues its long-awaited report Friday on the proposed 1,700-mile Keystone XL pipeline from Alberta, Canada to gulf coast refineries in Texas. The State Department report said the pipeline would not substantially worsen greenhouse gas pollution. Once it’s built, the pipeline could carry 830,000 barrels of oil a day; the report says that this volume of oil would still be extracted from oil sands fields in Alberta and delivered to US refineries to have the oil extracted by rail instead.

Here are a few points I would make about this decision:

• President Obama is likely to support the 1,700-mile Keystone pipeline; in a speech last summer, he said his administration would approve the pipeline if it didn’t “significantly exacerbate” the problem of greenhouse gas emissions. Secretary of State John Kerry is in a tough position as he studies his department’s 11-volume report and issues a statement about it in weeks or months ahead. Kerry has been a clear advocate of fighting climate change, and many significant environmental leaders are putting the pressure on Kerry and Obama to reject the Keystone pipeline.
• The US has been working hard on reducing imports of foreign oil in recent years, and this is one way it’s being done. Canada is, by far, the largest provider of foreign oil imports to the US, and Mexico is also one of the top suppliers of oil to the US. The Mexican government recently passed a sweeping energy reform bill allowing foreign investors in their market instead of the state-run oil giant controlling all of it. The Keystone pipeline, changes in the Mexican regulatory environment, and substantial growth in US oil and gas fields, means that there’s more oil coming to this country from North America and not from OPEC countries. Canada and Mexico are NAFTA partners and are much closer than other markets in the Middle East, Africa, and South America. Shipping the oil is faster and cheaper than from other markets, and the US has strong alliances with these two neighboring countries.
• Gasoline and diesel prices have been softening in the US and they should stay down this year. As mentioned above, the oil supply in North America is growing and that’s likely to keep prices down. That’s also likely to have some effect on market demand for electric vehicles, hybrids, and alternative fuel vehicles that usually cost more than comparable gasoline-engine vehicles. If you look at the surveys and marketing campaigns for green vehicles, gasoline prices are usually a top issue. That will need to change to get average consumers interested in making that purchase. Early adopters already own their green cars, and now it will probably take a revised marketing message to grow the market. Long-term cost savings and environmental benefits (emissions reductions) usually go over well with consumers, fleets, and transportation companies.

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Electrified transportation has major challenges to overcome with one of them being where the electricity comes from. Your car could be zero emission, but if the energy source used to generate the electricity powering your motor is spewing carbon, then what’s the point? Or so the thinking goes. One bright spot is that new power plant capacity is seeing big growth in renewable energy and natural gas, and steep decline in coal-fired plants. A new report from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s Office of Energy Projects says that renewables (such as solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, and hydropower) made up 37.16% of new domestic electrical generating capacity during 2013 for a total of 5,279 milliwatts (MW). Natural gas led 2013 with 7,270 MW of new capacity (51.17%). Renewable energy made up for three times that of coal (1,543 MW or 10.6%); oil (38 MW – 0.27%); and nuclear power (0 MW – 0.00%) combined.

Electricity production accounts for about 33% of greenhouse gas emissions in the US, according to US Environmental Protection Agency. Natural gas is a fossil fuel, just like coal, but it’s a much cleaner source of power – the EPA says its produces less nitrogen oxides and carbon dioxide than coal, and half as much carbon dioxide, less than a third as much nitrogen oxides, and only one percent as much sulfur oxides at the power plant. As you can see in the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission chart above, coal still makes up for a large share of US power plant operations at 28.57% last year. It used to be right above 50%; natural gas has been taking some of that share away for the past two years. Water and wind make up the biggest part of the renewable category; solar gets a lot of attention but is still in an early stage of development – but if you look at the new roll outs last year, solar is looking better. Solar led the way with 266 new units totaling 2,936 MW, followed by wind with 18 units producing 1,129 MW. Biomass provided 97 new units totaling 777 MW; water had 19 new units and 378 MW; and geothermal steam had four new units and 59 MW.

And in other clean transportation news:

• Along with the new fuel economy standard, the US Environmental Protection Agency began working more closely and cooperatively with automakers in 2011 on tailpipe smog emission standards. At the Detroit Auto Show, EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy told automakers that the agency will take final action on its “Tier 3” standards next month; it’s putting stricter limits on tailpipe emissions and will have a mandate for oil companies limiting the amount of sulfur that can be used in gasoline. The rule will cost less than a penny a gallon and bring improved health protections to the public, McCarthy said to Automotive News. Automakers are pleased with the prospect of making and selling the same vehicles globally with better emission controls, as long as the oil industry does its part. The negotiations in 2011 appear to have been the start of ongoing cooperation between government and the auto industry. Technology is now in a place to provide solutions to barriers that used to be insurmountable.
• Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk thinks leasing is the answer for electric vehicle acquisitions, and just about all other types of vehicles out on the roads. Tesla guarantees the future value of its cars during the lease, allowing it to bring down monthly payments for the luxury, sporty sedan, the Model S. The premise of the guaranteed residual value has been based on the Mercedes Benz S Class as the benchmark – Tesla promises the Model S won’t depreciate any lower than the S Class; and Tesla will buy back the car at the agreed price. It will be very interesting how Tesla and its finance department do in the future; automakers get a lot of flexibility in how they report profit and loss from leasing within their captive finance divisions; some would call it “creative finance.” The Model S will cost much more in China – about $121,000. There’s bound to be very competitive lease deals in that country, which Tesla is counting on for pushing forward in its unit sales.
• The 2015 Cadillac ELR took the Green Car Technology of the Year award. That extended range plug-in hybrid luxury car just rolled out last month and has only sold a handful of units. Winning the award should help, just like cars have done winning Green Car Journal’s sister award, the Green Car of the Year award, which is given out in November at the LA Auto Show. Ron Cogan and the other award judges were particularly impressed with the ELR’s paddle shifters used to increase the amount of energy it’s able to regenerate and store in its battery pack. That helps increase its range.
• More students are being called on for breakthroughs in green vehicle technologies. Not long after Ford showed off its Fusion Hybrid automated research vehicle, Ford announced two alliances with impressive universities. Ford has projects started with Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Stanford University to research and develop solutions to some of the challenges that come up with automated driving. The teams will explore Ford’s Blueprint for Mobility, where driverless, automated driving is expected to bring long-term social contributions.
• Going green is becoming more appealing to auto dealers around the country as a marketing message and as a strategy to build employee and customer loyalty – something to be proud of contribute to the local and global community. Rossi Honda of Vineland, NJ, says it’s the first-ever US dealer to become “Electric-Grid Neutral” and that happens through using no net electricity from its local utility. Rossi Honda installed solar panels during 2012 that took care of 90% of its need for electricity; the other 10% and its neutrality rating came from replacing metal halide lamps with LED lamps. Installing canopies outside for weather protection was also part of it neutral program.
• Via Motors has made an $80 million purchase agreement with Sun Country Highway, a Canadian company that’s bringing electric vehicle charging stations to the nation’s highways. The deal will bring 1,000 of Via’s extended range plug-in hybrid Vtrux vans as shuttle vehicles for the Best Western hotel chain.
• The Smart ForTwo Electric Drive was named the most environmentally friendly vehicle on American roads, according to the 2014 Greenest Vehicles list released by the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy; an assortment of battery-electric vehicles, plug-ins, hybrids – and one natural gas model – rounding out the Top 10. Toyota and Honda overwhelming dominated the ACEEE list of “Greenest” models.

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I would suggest that you take an hour and listen to the webinar from last week sponsored by 2014 ACT Expo and featuring Rick Sikes, feet superintendent for the City of Santa Monica, and Joe Stergios, area sales manager for Enterprise Fleet Management. Their experience and expertise is quite impressive, and it points toward what can be shared at ACT Expo in a few months. Sikes has been at it since the early 1990s and now has a 78% green vehicles in its 800 unit fleet, with natural gas vehicles making up about half of its fleet and electric vehicles (EVs), propane, hybrids, and hydrogen making up the rest of the green vehicles. Stergios works for Enterprise, which has the world’s largest private fleet with about 1.4 million vehicles on roads; the company serves about 9,000 commercial and government fleet accounts. Hybrids, EVs, and compressed natural gas vehicles are what Enterprise has been testing out on the rental and fleet sides. Enterprise’s alternative fuel vehicle experience increased four years ago when the company adopted an environmental stewardship initiative with the assistance of the CICS sustainability consulting agency.

Here are some of the more interesting points they made:

• Sikes: Having a written policy on alternative fuels is important tied into strategic objectives like reducing fossil fuel consumption and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. With that, keeping an accurate inventory of the vehicles and their fuel use is important. Where and how its fueled onsite and offsite; making better use of under-utilized assets can free up capital and make operations more efficient.
• Stergios: Creating a total cost of ownership (TCO) model is an important part of managing the assets. There are five aspects that need to be analyzed – acquisition, funding, compliance, operation, and remarketing. Those go into the TCO model and show you where the best fleet decisions are being made for the vehicle’s lifecycle. Stergios showed a chart with an electric vehicle, plug-in hybrid, clean diesel, hybrid, and fuel efficient car for comparison – they came out very close to each other. Trucks are in the same realm lately – where gasoline, bi-fuel CNG, and diesel are very close to one another on a financial level.
• Sikes: Grant funding is bringing down the lifecycle costs of these vehicles, so you need to do your research. When asked whether he’s seeing the 50 cent per gallon equivalent for natural gas affecting fuel prices, he’s not seeing that happen. His fleet doesn’t buy off local pumps; they may see it in the future but he doesn’t have a sense of how much they’re passing it on to customers lately.
• Stergios: Enterprise managers turn about 700,000 vehicles a year and most all of them are at risk units; it’s still a bit early to get accurate readings on where green vehicles are going in resale values – if anyone has insight on that one, he’d like to hear from them. (Santa Monica keeps its vehicles 12 to 14 years, so Sikes doesn’t have much to share on this topic, though five-to-eight year turn-ins are common for other fleets, he says.)
• Sikes: Santa Monica is looking at bringing in extended range trucks from Via Motors. He likes the low maintenance that EVs have to offer, but is concerned about the range anxiety, so the 40 miles on electric and then the extended range on Via pickups and vans are interesting to him.
• Stergios: Complying with California regulations can be tricky especially when a green vehicle might lack CARB and EPA conformity. Certification with CARB is starting to get a bit easier with more engines passing the certification process.

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The US Environmental Protection Agency’s open comment period on its proposed revisions for the Renewable Fuel Standard will close at the end of today. The public comment sessions have been heated and comprehensive, and have come from a long list of federal and state elected officials, industry association leaders, and advocacy groups. However, if I had to put money on it, I would bet that the EPA will stick to the proposal that it issued in mid-November; that’s the way it usually goes. Beyond that, the battle between the biofuels industry and “big oil” (oil companies and refineries) is likely to continue. Here’s the latest:

• The oil industry would like to see gasoline avoid the E15 (15% ethanol) blend, along with seeing renewable identification number (RIN) credit prices dropping or going away entirely. More recently, a bigger issue seems to be the cellulosic biofuels mandate requiring oil refiners to blend a specific amount of advanced biofuels from grasses, trees, and crop waste into gasoline. The American Petroleum Institute and American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers petitioned the EPA to reduce its target, stating that advanced biofuels producers were failing to delivery on production schedules to meet the federal target. That was the case in 2013 when the cellulosic biofuel industry could only deliver one million of the six million mandated gallons. EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy said that her agency will reconsider its 2013 cellulosic biofuel mandate after viewing the objections raised by the oil industry.
• A large number of US senators have called on the EPA to revise its 2014 mandate proposal. McCarthy received a letter signed by 31 senators who called on the EPA to revise its proposal to stimulate growth in next-generation biofuels and infrastructure. The letter was led by Senators Dick Durbin (D-Ill.). Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), Al Franken, (D-Minn.), Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), and John Thune (R-S.D.). “Without a revised proposal, the EPA’s rule will bring severe economic consequences, and prevent the growth of the renewable fuel sector,” the letter said.
• Speaking this month at the Biodiesel Conference & Expo, National Biodiesel Board CEO Joe Jobe called on President Obama to stand tall with his support for alternative energy industries. Jobe said that “big oil” has been misleading Americans about fuel policy, and gave his perspectives on misconceptions in how Americans think about energy.  “Strong government policy support along with a unique spirit of innovation, entrepreneurship, and risk-taking are the primary reasons that so many major modern industries had their start in America,” Jobe said.
• Fuel stations are rolling out more E15, regardless of where the federal policy goes. MAPCO Express Inc. will be offering E15 at 100 of its mega stores in the Southeast.  American Freedom Energy has become the first retailer in Ohio to offer the E15 blend at its pumps. Seeing retailers like American Freedom Energy, MAPCO, Murphy Oil, and Minnoco offering E15 continues to make the case for the fuel blend, says Growth Energy CEO Tom Buis. “When given the choice, consumers will seek the fuel that costs less, improves the performance of their vehicles and is better for our environment,” Buis said.

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For those of you who enjoy good webinars, register immediately for an Alternative Clean Transportation (ACT) Expo session coming up tomorrow, January 22 at 11:00 am PT / 2:00 ET (though it’s possibly filled up by now). Two seasoned experts will share their experience and insight on “How to Integrate Alternative Fuels into Your Fleet Operations” – Rick Sikes of City of Santa Monica and Joe Stergios of Enterprise Fleet Management. Sikes has been in the trenches with alternative fuel vehicles for about 25 years and has played a leading role in organizing AltCar Expo in Santa Monica each year. Stergios has worked closely with fleet clients who want to integrate clean, efficient technologies into their fleets; he’s played a valuable role in the monthly stakeholder calls for Green Auto Market, shedding light on what’s actually happening out there. These two speakers will talk about evaluating economic and environmental benefits of AFVs in their fleet operations, selecting the right equipment and fuel options, securing funding and tax credits, and maintaining and operating equipment safely and cost-effectively. Click here to register.

AIRNow shows you five major pollutant categories in air you’re breathing

Interested in gauging the quality of the air you’ve been breathing lately? Visit the AIRNow website, which offers Air Quality Index (AQI) reporting on 300 major US cities with links to more detailed state and local air quality website. It’s been coordinated by the US Environmental Protection Agency and partner federal agencies (such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration).  Its maps are updated daily by the hour. The AQI focuses on health effects you may experience within a few hours or days after breathing polluted air. It measure five major pollutants listed under the Clean Air Act – ground-level ozone; particulate pollution (aka particulate matter); carbon monoxide; sulfur dioxide; and nitrogen dioxide.  The data is collected by federal, state, local, or tribal monitoring agencies to enforce the act.

And in other news……

Speaking of air pollution, Utah resident want to see tougher air pollution requirements on industry. They said they’re more concerned about air pollution today than they were five years ago, according to a survey conducted for The Salt Lake Tribune. Researchers found that residents favored stricter laws for industry emissions on a 3-to-1 basis.

Two Chinese companies will square off in bankruptcy court on February 12 to determine the fate of Fisker Automotive. An auction will take place that day and Wanxiang Group will be competing with investor Richard Li of Hong Kong and his Hybrid Tech Holdings partner. Hybrid has said its initial bid would be worth $55 million – so the numbers are more than doubling over the initial bid.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been getting into squabbles with NHTSA over how the Model S investigation should be conducted, what’s going to be investigated, and what it will be called. Musk has been upset that the word “recall” has been issued when customers as of yet don’t have to bring their cars in to a Tesla retail location. The garage fire caused by house wiring was another slap to Musk in having it defined as a recall. “What are they supposed to do about that, issue a recall for the house?” he asked.

Strong fuel economy was a key them at the Detroit Auto Show especially for Ford Motor Co. and its new F-150 pickup with an all-aluminum body that weighs 700 pounds less. Chrysler emphasized its Ram 1500 pickup with an eight-speed transmission and a 2015 Chrysler 200 with a nine-speed gearbox, which gives it 35 mpg on the highway. Toyota will be rolling out even more hybrids and will bring its hydrogen powered car to market a year earlier than previously announced – now it will be 2015. During the Automotive News World Congress, Brian Kesseler, president of Johnson Control’s battery division made a strong statement. He thinks it’s entirely possible for the auto industry to reach the lofty 54.5 mpg by 2025 directive from the federal government. He thinks it will come from a mix of stop-start systems, turbochargers, direct injection and other cutting-edge technologies.

Overall sales slowed down last for Toyota Motor Corp, but hybrid electric vehicles continued to see strong numbers. Toyota sold over one million units for the second year – this time reaching 1.279 million units sold. That’s up over 1.219 million hybrids sold in 2012, which was the first year Toyota passed the one million annual mark for hybrids. There were several new hybrid models introduced in late 2012 and through 2013 in different global markets – the Crown Hybrid, Avalon Hybrid, Lexus IS 300h, Corolla Axio Hybrid, Corolla Fielder Hybrid, Crown Majesta Hybrid, and the Lexus GS 300h. It’s an impressive lineup – 24 hybrid models and one plug-in hybrid in about 80 countries. The automaker says it will roll out 15 more hybrid models in the next two years.

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January 21, 2014 – Alternative fuel vehicles are playing an increasingly vital role in environmental issues, government policies, and economics. LeSage Consulting now offers services to support stakeholders in alternative fuel vehicles and clean transportation – education and public awareness, informative content, and market research services designed to assist clients in accomplishing their missions.

“Electric vehicles, hybrids, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles – and natural gas, propane autogas, and advanced biofuels – are starting to see real numbers in vehicle offerings, sales figures, and infrastructure,” said consultant Jon LeSage. “Consumers, fleets, automakers, charging and fueling companies, governments, and other stakeholders, are making the necessary investments and commitment to meet what I would call the E Benchmarks – emissions, energy, economics, and efficiency.”

Stakeholders in this emerging field have been calling out for years on helping consumers better understand and make informed decisions. Education and public awareness services provided by LeSage Consulting – including online and onsite seminars, ride and drives, and educational materials – are vital for answering frequently asked questions and breaking through range anxiety and other concerns. LeSage Consulting will provide education resources to three audiences:  automakers and dealer networks informing car shoppers and customers; stakeholder alliances deploying fuels and infrastructures; and conferences and events presenting educational seminars and hands-on experience with the vehicles.

LeSage Consulting also provides informative content ideal for websites and blogs, articles and newsletters, webinar presentations, and public information campaigns. The firm’s market research services will support education, awareness, and analysis of what’s happening in this industry; these services include industry metrics, surveys, focus groups, in-depth interviews, and analytical reports on emerging trends impacting stakeholders in the field.

Jon LeSage is known in the industry as a writer/editor covering alternative fuel vehicles for Green Auto Market, AutoblogGreen, and Automotive Digest. In addition to media, LeSage worked in market research serving clients in automotive, transportation, and consumer products. LeSage Consulting is a logical continuation of his professional experience and skillset – and his passion for clean transportation – in an engaging, insightful format.

“There’s so much to follow these days with breakthroughs in vehicle technologies, alternative fuels, and renewables, along with new ways of thinking about transportation such as carsharing and autonomous, driverless cars,” LeSage said. “Every one of the alternative fuels and vehicles has a series of challenges to break through to see real growth. LeSage Consulting works with clients to turn these challenges into opportunities that will help clean transportation move forward.”

Stakeholders served by LeSage Consulting will include:

• OEMs, automotive suppliers, and dealerships
• Fleet managers, fleet management companies, and transportation companies
• Charging and fueling infrastructure providers
• Government agencies and research centers
• Industry associations and environmental groups
• Marketing agencies
• Energy companies
• Carsharing and ridesharing providers
• Telematics and connected car providers

More information on LeSage Consulting products and services is accessible on LeSage’s website including current and back issues of Green Auto Market; subscribers can choose the Extended Edition with industry metrics including hybrid and EV sales, alternative fuel prices, stock market performance for companies in the field, and US charging and fueling stations. In the next few months, LeSage Consulting will release the Green Vehicle Database with specifications, pricing, and incentive data on passenger and commercial vehicle offerings for the 2014 and 2015 model years. Jon LeSage can be contacted at (562) 505-6380 and jlesage@jonlesage.com.

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Green Auto Market – December 2013 Extended Edition

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