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This Week’s Top 10: Tesla grabs attention with its D model unveiling, More DOE funding rolling out

by Jon LeSage, editor and publisher, Green Auto Market

Here’s my take on the 10 most significant and interesting occurrences during the past week…….

Tesla Motors is masterful at getting people to impatiently wait for the electric carmaker to unveil a new technology. The “D” model announced on Thursday wasn’t a new electric car, but an all-wheel drive version of the Model S that will roll out in 2015. It will offer a semi-autonomous driving system that it calls Autopilot. Cameras and infrared sensors read speed limit signs and the speed of cars around the Model S; it also features collision avoidance and lane-keeping assist systems. Drivers can change lanes simply by switching on the turn signal. Tesla says Autopilot is able to park the car once you leave it. The Model S 85D will have 295 miles of range compared to 261 for the ordinary Model S, and it will be more energy efficient than previous versions of the Model S. “A system like this is inherently able to achieve better road holding,” Tesla CEO Elon Musk wrote in the company’s blog. “We were able to improve almost everything about the car.” Some media and stock market analysts found the hyped announcement to be overinflated; others have been fascinated.
More DOE funding rolling out. As part of its $25 billion Advanced Technology Vehicle Manufacturing (ATVM) low-interest loan program, the US Department of Energy may soon be awarding new loans. These new loans will probably go to parts suppliers and not OEMs, with one or two awards expected to be announced this year. Lighter-weight materials for fuel efficiency, such as aluminum alloy, may be part of the low-interest loans. There have been no new ATVM loans since late 2011, with more than $15 billion remaining in the coffer.
Another plug-in hybrid Cadillac. Cadillac will debut a plug-in hybrid version of its CT6 large sedan late next year, according to product chief Mark Reuss. It will get at least 70 mpg. The next CT6 will have a wide range of advanced technologies available – a six-cylinder turbocharged engine that goes up to 400 hp, a stop-start system, and an eight-speed automatic transmission. Lightweight construction will also help fuel economy, Reuss said – it’s going to be eight inches longer and 53 pounds lighter than the Cadillac CTS. Cadillac also has a battery electric sedan in the planning stages.
Green vehicle awards increasing even more. As reported in Green Auto Market two weeks ago, annual green vehicle awards are getting a bit more confusing. Along with Bobit Business Media adding the Green Fleet Car and Truck of the Year Awards during Connected Car Expo at the LA Auto Show, the annual Green Car of the Year award will be announced that same day by Green Car Journal. That magazine has started up another contest – the Green Truck of the Year award, which will be presented at the 2014 San Antonio Auto & Truck Show on November 6. The five nominated 2015 model pickups include the Chevrolet Colorado, Ford F-150, GMC Canyon, Ram 1500 EcoDiesel, and Ram 1500 HFE. “The significant efficiency and environmental improvements being made in the truck segment signal an important change in the industry,” said Ron Cogan, publisher of Green Car Journal and CarsOfChange.com. Maybe Green Auto Market should start its own award? Green Vehicle Innovations of the Year Award, or something like that?
New NGVA leader takes the helm. Natural Gas Vehicles for America has named Matthew Godlewski its new president. Godlewski succeeds Rich Kolodziej, who served as NGVAmerica’s president since 1996. Godlewski is an experienced trade association executive who has a proven ability to lead effective teams and collaborate with industry allies, said Ron Eickelman, chairman of NGVAmerica and president of Agility Fuel Systems. Statements of support have been released by a few colleagues, including Mitch Bainwol, president and CEO of Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers (where Godlewski had served in a leadership role), Andrew Littlefair, president and CEO of Clean Energy Fuels, Scott Perry, VP of supply management for Ryder Fleet Management Solutions, and Gordon Exel, president of Cummins Wesport.
Tesla Motors has opened up in a tough-to-enter market. Tesla Motors has opened up a retail store in a country that usually doesn’t allow outside automakers to sell domestically – Japan. Last month, Tesla CEO Elon Musk handed over keys to several new Model S owners during a ceremony in Tokyo. Musk praised Japanese electronics company Panasonic for supplying the battery pack in the Model S. One of these cars was delivered to Yoshi Yamada, a Panasonic executive vice president; Yamada said the Model S is only being taken for company use.
Zero emission buses had two major announcements. CALSTART has been given approval by the Federal Transit Administration to develop North America’s first-ever fuel cell/battery combination zero emission 60-foot electric bus. The bus will be built by New Flyer Industries, and it will be designed to provide daily urban service using a unique combination of fuel cell and batteries. The propulsion system will include a combination of batteries, a fuel cell, and hydrogen storage. The bus is expected to be completed in the middle of next year……… China-based BYD says it will unveil the world’s first pure battery electric 60-foot transit bus at the APTA Expo in Houston this month. The company said that representatives of major transit agencies have visited BYD’s factory in Lancaster, Calif., to see the electric bus.
SolarCity and Honda investing in solar power. During the SXSW Eco conference in Austin, Texas, SolarCity and Honda renewed their partnership with a new fund expected to finance $50 million in solar projects. The idea is to make solar more affordable and available to Honda and Acura customers and dealerships in the US. This fund is a follow-up to a $65 million fund the two companies created in 2013. They’ve completed their first wave of solar projects for homeowners, dealerships, and corporate facilities that now produces more than 12.5 MW of solar generation capacity.
Fuel economy pace slows down. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released its annual Fuel Economy Trends report. Average fuel economy increased to a record 24.1 mpg in the 2013 model year, a pace that slowed down compared to the two previous years. It saw a 0.5 mpg increase from the previous year, while the 2012 result had improved 1.2 mpg from the prior year. It’s expected to slow down even more – to just a 0.1 mpg increase for the 2014 model year. Federal regulators say – not to worry. They expect the pace to go back up as more powerful gasoline-saving technologies enter the market.
Give renewable natural gas the recognition it deserves. Joanna Underwood, president of Energy Vision, just had commentary pieces published in Triple Pundit and GreenBiz. Turning biogases into fuel has a dramatic impact. Fleets converting from diesel to renewable natural gas cut greenhouse gas emissions by 88% or higher. This exceeds U.S. goals of a 20% reduction by 2020 and an 80% reduction by 2050, Underwood wrote.

Cheaper, lighter, high-density lithium batteries: How close are we?

Lithium ion batteries are coming down in cost, but it’s all relative. Here’s a clear example…… The starting price on the Tesla Model S with a 60 kilowatt hours (60 kWh) lithium battery is $68,710; and the price goes up to $83,760 for the Model S with the 85 kWh option. The battery pack in a Model S costs about $30,000.

Analysts carefully watch what’s happening to the cost of lithium batteries, their weight, size, and storage capacity. Building a smaller, lighter and cheaper battery for Tesla’s upcoming lower-cost sedan has been at the heart of its $5 billion “Gigafactory” in Reno, Nev.

It’s going to take a few model years to see the price drop substantially. Here are some of the latest developments in electric vehicle batteries……….

Sakti3 says that its solid-state cell is close to doubling the energy density of today’s lithium-ion cell chemistries, at only one-fifth of their current cost. That technology will support a battery cost of just $100 per kWh – but that won’t be happening until the end of this decade. Satki3, led by University of Michigan engineering professor Ann Marie Sastry, has received investment capital from GM Ventures. That goes back to 2010, when Sakti3 received a lot of media coverage and exposure (such as Sastry speaking at the Bloomberg symposium in Los Angeles during the time the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volt were first being delivered to dealers in December 2010). The company went under the radar for a few years and has reemerged, with a recent article coming out in Fortune on the company.
Panasonic has created a new company to oversee its operations at the Gigafactory as it goes online over the next two years. Panasonic has made an initial investment of $92 million, and that payment is expected to be the first of many cash infusions. Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk says that as many as 500,000 battery packs per year could be built there by 2020. Tesla management will be in charge of the factory; Panasonic will provide the necessary manufacturing equipment and lithium-ion battery components.
Nissan has been building its own proprietary lithium-ion battery pack for the Leaf sedan. It’s been seven years since that battery technology started up, and it doesn’t look like Nissan will be bringing in LG Chem, Panasonic, Sakti3, or A123 Systems for its electric vehicles. At the Paris Motor Show, Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn shed more light on the topic. “With electric cars, we consider that the reason for which we got involved with batteries, at the beginning, is we couldn’t find batteries good enough for our cars—so we decided to assemble our own batteries,” Ghosn said. “And we will continue to do that as long as we don’t think there are enough good batteries on the market, or we don’t think there is competition to sustain the move on batteries.”
Bill Reinert, the recently retired national manager of Toyota’s advanced technology group – and a very outspoken, brutally honest speaker at industry conferences – is still more impressed with hybrids than electric vehicles. Here’s what he said to a Yale University journal, Yale Environment 360….. “There’s nothing promising beyond the lithium battery on the battery horizon. And the lithium battery has tremendous shortcomings for cars – for example, it doesn’t maintain a full charge in hot weather, which creates a battery degradation cycle. Even the Tesla’s Model S, with its biggest battery, when driven like a normal car can’t always deliver 200 miles of range, and the [company’s charging stations] are currently 200 miles away from each other. To give a Tesla much extra driving range, the battery weight required would greatly decrease the distance it could travel per kilowatt and also greatly increase its cost.”

Clean fuels and transportation hot topics at CleanTech OC annual conference

Along with federal and state incentives and low-interest loan programs, companies in clean transportation lately have been finding more available investment funds in the cleantech sector. Cleantech covers a broad spectrum of environmentally friendly, advanced technologies including zero emission vehicles, waste-to-energy, renewable energy, smart grids, and energy efficiency. Last week, I attended the CleanTech OC 2014 Annual Conference & Expo in Irvine, Calif. Clean transportation played a visible role including being the focus of the first speaker panel that day.

The “Cleantech Drivers –What Hot in OC” panel started with Tim Brown, co-founder and COO of First Element Fuel, which has been awarded contracts to deploy hydrogen fueling stations in California. Several more stations will be set up in the next year, usually at standing retail fuel stations. Right now, there are seven hydrogen stations in California; three of them are in Orange County.

Tom Koutroulis, district manager for Waste Management, talked about the refuse disposal company’s Continuous Organics Recycling (CORe) “wasted food, wasted energy” program. The company uses anaerobic digesters to manage waste and produce fuels. Waste Management works with agencies such as Los Angeles and Orange County sanitation districts to recycle and convert food waste into energy, such as renewable natural gas, and is setting up operations around the country. CORe ties into the refuse company’s campaign to reduce use of fossil fuels, which also includes switching over its fleet to natural gas vehicles.

Harrison Clay, president of Clean Energy Renewable Fuels, described the natural gas fueling infrastructure company’s renewable natural gas division as providing “expanding opportunities for low carbon fleet fueling.” Parent company Clean Energy Fuels now has about 700 fleet clients running about 35,000 vehicles on traditional and renewable natural gas. There are about 2,000 trucks in the Long Beach and Los Angeles ports using natural gas, with several trying out biomethane through Clean Energy’s Redeem brand renewable natural gas.

The Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) in California is a big driver in fleets becoming more interested in renewable natural gas. There have been about $10 million in LCFS credits sold for biomethane on the state’s cap-and-trade market, Clay said. Fleets using traditional natural gas are seeing significant reductions in metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) compared to gasoline and diesel; using renewable natural gas reduces GHG four times more than traditional natural gas as a vehicle fuel, he said. The federal Renewable Fuel Standard Program and California’s LCFS are growth drivers for renewable natural gas with about 20 million gallons being delivered this year – a number which should double in 2015 based on supply sources that have already signed up. One problem is that the LCFS carbon credit market can fluctuate dramatically and is an uncertain market, Clay said.

Dean Saito of South Coast Air Quality Management District said that there are a lot of cap-and-trade funds coming out of Sacramento lately. Cap and trade started in 2006 with passage of AB 32 in California under then-Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. LCFS was also created under AB 32. It’s taken a few years for the cap-and-trade exchange market to get underway; and implementation of LCFS rules for transportation and oil production are still undergoing review and public feedback by the California Air Resources Board. Saito encouraged people to track California clean vehicle funding programs – Clean Fuels Program; Goods (freight) Movement Program; Carl Moyer Memorial Air Quality Standards Attainment Program; Lower-Emission School Bus Program; and Enhanced Fleet Modernization Program.

Brad Timon, CFO of Quantum Technologies, presented one of the “OC Success Stories.” The Lake Forest, Calif.-based company has been publicly traded since 2002 and now has 160 employees. Lately, the company has been focusing primarily on tank vessels for high-pressure gases, which is getting a lot of play in the natural gas vehicle (NGV) sector from customers running heavy-duty trucks. In 2007, Quantum Technologies became the co-founder with Fisker Automotive of its powertrain system for the Karma plug-in hybrid. That client has gone through a well-known shakedown, which hurt Quantum Technologies’ business model. Switching over to its tank system for NGVs is driving business today. The company also provides a diesel hybrid electric system for the US military, Ford F150 extended range plug-in hybrids, and a hydrogen fueling system

One of the keynote speakers at the day-long conference was Greg Trimarche, outgoing chairperson of CleanTech OC. He said that the cleantech industry is going through a market trend similar to what was experienced by high tech in the early 2000s. What had been very hot on the stock market and with private investors went through a shakedown during 2001-to-2002. Cleantech saw a flood of investments from 2008 to 2010, until huge losses taken by companies including Solyndra became a “political football,” he said. Cleantech isn’t a hot-ticket item now for venture capitalists, but it’s seeing a more stable foundation for capital investments as analysts see which companies have survived the startup phase and look good for long-term investments.

Two days prior to the CleanTech OC conference, on October 6, another significant cleantech industry event took place. The 2014 Global Cleantech 100 companies were announced at a gala in Washington, D.C. Global Cleantech 100 is an annual list of the top 100 private companies in clean technology determined by Cleantech Group. Five US-based companies took awards in the Transportation segment – ChargePoint and its network of electric vehicle charging solutions; Proterra, a maker of battery-powered buses and other clean commercial transit solutions; RelayRides, a developer of a peer-to-peer car sharing platform; Streetline – smart parking solutions through wireless sensors located in parking spots and managed through a wireless mesh network; and Uber, the mobile-based car booking and payment system that’s arch enemy No. 1 to the taxi industry. Outside the US, France-based BlaBlaCar, a provider of a car-pooling online marketplace, and Germany-based Ubitricity, a developer and provider of a mobile metering technology and billing platform for EV smart charging infrastructure, also made the transportation list.

This Week’s Top 10: EV sales were down a little bit in September, Electric Drive Transportation Association joins up with ACT Expo

by Jon LeSage, editor and publisher, Green Auto Market

Here’s my take on the 10 most significant and interesting occurrences during the past week…….

Nissan Leaf continues to lead the pack. Electric vehicle sales saw a little bit of softening in September after two months of strong numbers – falling short of the recent 10,000 per month mark with 9,340 units sold last month. That was 15% greater than one year earlier; for the year, 88,149 units have been sold – a 30% gain over the first nine months of 2013. The Nissan Leaf continues to steam along, reaching its 19^th consecutive month of year-over-year increases. Hitting 2,881 units sold last month was nearly a 50% gain over last year’s 1,953. The Chevy Volt didn’t do as well – hitting 1,394, its lowest sales number since February and down from September 2013’s 1,766. The new 2016 Volt will be rolled out at the Detroit Auto Show in January, and current sales are expected to remain down for 2014 and 2015 models. The Tesla Model S isn’t reported but was expected to sell about 1,300 last month. Right behind the Model S is the BMW i3, which sold 1,022 last month – its second month over 1,000 sold. The company expects to roll out a higher share of i electric and plug-in hybrid models in the US in coming months. Tesla has raised interest with CEO Elon Musk’s recent tweet about unveiling its mysterious Model D on Oct. 9. Tesla also gained interest in its used car remarketing strategy in an Automotive News feature article. Tesla is developing a certified pre-owned (CPO) vehicle program for its off-lease Model S units. That should make it more competitive with pre-owned luxury models from BMW and Mercedes-Benz, the company said.
EVs will play a larger role at ACT Expo. Alternative Clean Transportation (ACT) Expo and Electric Drive Transportation Association (EDTA) have formed a new event partnership for 2015 ACT Expo, taking place May 4-7 in Dallas. The partnership signals a renewed focus on the rise of electric vehicles; it’s one more significant step that event manager Gladstein Neandross & Associates (GNA) has taken to expand the fuels and technologies being embraced by the clean transportation community.
RFS gets an impressive list of supporters. A group of 33 state governors is asking the US Environmental Protection Agency to increase blending mandates for its soon-to-be-announced ruling on Renewable Fuel Standard volumes for biodiesel and cellulosic ethanol. The Governors’ Biofuels Coalition says that decreasing RFS volumes could hurt production of biofuels from waste products.
Spiking gas prices is a scare tactic, UCS says. The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) says that the possibility of rising gas prices in California being warned by oil companies won’t take hold. With California’s cap-and-trade rule from AB 32 (California Global Warming Solutions Act) and the Low Carbon Fuel Standard coming from that legislation, oil companies are saying that with their increasing state taxes, they’ll have to pass that on to gas station pumps. A new report by UCS states that concerns about rising gas prices are overblown; the group thinks that any increases in transportation costs will be offset by savings from decreased oil consumption.
What happened at Paris Motor Show? Green Car Reports traveled overseas for the opening of the famous auto show. Here’s their list of impressive debuts…… Citroen C4 CactusAIRFLOW concept car…… 2016 Ford C-Max……… Infiniti Q80 Inspiration concept….. 2017 Jaguar XE diesel…….. 2016 Mitsubishi Outlander Plug-In Hybrid…….. Renault Eolab concept…….. Volkswagen Passat GTE Plug-In Hybrid and Volkswagen XL Sport.
USDA investing $91M in biofuel plant. Secretary Tom Vilsack said that the US Department of Agriculture is offering a $91 million loan guarantee to help finance an innovative advanced biofuel plant in Rapides Parish, La, with the Cool Planet corporation. The Cool Planet facilities will produce about eight to 10 million gallons of reformate per year at full capacity. Often referred to as a “drop-in” fuel, reformate is an ingredient in gasoline and jet fuel that can be added during the regular refinery process.
Full-size Transit van on propane. Roush CleanTech will be offering a propane-powered Ford Transit full-size van to fleets by the middle of 2016. The Transit is in development now with Roush, and will be certified under Ford’s Qualified Vehicle Modifier (QVM) program. For the latest on the benefits of bringing propane autogas into a fleet, see a recent Q&A article by Michael Taylor, director of propane autogas business development at Propane Education & Research Council.
Lamborghini enters EV space. Lamborghini announced at the Paris Motor Show it will roll out its first-ever plug-in hybrid vehicle. The Asterion LPI 910-4 concept car has a V-10 aspirated engine and three electric motors. The company said the Asterion can get 30 miles to the gallon on the lithium electric battery alone.
Green Across America Trip #2. The compressed natural gas (CNG)-powered Honda Civic road trip across the country that started in 2012 by Evelynn Corbitt and Curtis Martin, national chairman for Green Across America, will make its run this month in coordination with Alternative Fuel Vehicle Odyssey Day 2014. There will be scheduled stops in Lynden, Renton, Portland, Lebanon, Eugene, Medford, Saratoga, Paso Robles, Santa Maria, Los Angeles, Long Beach, and San Diego. The road trip will be supported by Clean Cities coalitions in Washington, Oregon, and California, the National Alternative Fuels Training Consortium (NAFTC), and CNGChat.com.
More propane conversion centers in Alliance AutoGas. Alliance AutoGas now has 100 member companies in its network with Virginia-based Better Fuels and Oklahoma-based CNG Interstate. CNG Interstate has traditionally specialized in compressed natural gas conversions for light- and medium-duty fleet vehicles and has become active in the propane autogas space.

Murky definitions of electric vehicles and hybrids make purchases more challenging

If you’re reading media coverage and market reports on electric vehicle (EV) and hybrid sales trends, it’s easy to get confused over what’s being described. One might think it would mean plug-in electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles – with plug-ins including battery electric (Nissan Leaf, Tesla Model S) and plug-in hybrid (Chevrolet Volt, Ford C-Max Energi); and hybrids representing models such as the Toyota Prius (not including the Prius Plug-in Hybrid) and Ford Fusion Hybrid. However, lately there have been reports and media coverage that make the categories more confusing; and make the prospect of marketing, selling, and purchasing these vehicle technologies even more murky and challenging.

For many consumers and fleets, buying either of these technologies is a new and confusing experience. The price differential compared to high fuel economy gasoline engine cars is one factor; and the need for charging stations and the amount of time needed for full charging are other questions that come up all the time. Why invest in a new technology when you can get cost-competitive traditional engines with higher mileage?

A new study by the University of Michigan’s Transportation Research Institute, “What Do Current Owners of Hybrids and Non-Hybrids Think about Hybrids,” speaks to that challenge. The survey received responses from 1,002 hybrid owners and 1,038 owners of non-hybrid cars. It focused primarily on their experience with current hybrids and plans for future vehicle purchases. About 80% of current hybrid owners will buy a hybrid with about one third of them intending to buy a plug-in hybrid. For those who won’t be buying another hybrid as their next vehicle, about one sixth of them will be buying an electric vehicle. This study defines and segments hybrids and electric vehicles differently than other sources have been in recent years. Most of the time, plug-in hybrids are listed as “electric vehicles” or “plug-in electric vehicles” in data reports, while Transportation Research Institute places it in the “hybrid” category. (To receive a copy of the University of Michigan report, email Michael Sivak at sivak@umich.edu.)

Early September saw a wave of media coverage on analysts stating that EV and hybrid sales were fizzling. Edmunds.com saw a stalled August market for battery-powered cars – including hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and battery electric vehicles. A drop in hybrid sales offset gains made in the plug-in hybrid and battery electric market. Hybrid sales were down 9.1% since August 2013, but plug-ins were up 9.5% since a year ago. The Edmunds study said that the drop in hybrid sales offset sales gains in plug-in hybrids and battery electric vehicles with hybrids selling a higher volume than that achieved by plug-in hybrids and battery electric vehicles. The study refers to all of them as “electrified vehicles.”

Here’s how leading sources of data on EV and hybrid sales are defining the numbers:

Electric Drive Transportation Association (EDTA) defines “electric drive” sales figures as covering light-duty hybrid vehicles and total plug-in vehicles (with plug-ins breaking out into plug-in hybrids and battery electric vehicles). In September, there were 31,285 hybrid vehicles and 9,340 total plug-in vehicles sold that month. Of the total plug-ins, 3,357 were plug-in hybrids and 5,983 were battery EVs.
Plug In America’s Plug-in Vehicle Tracker features battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. The difference here is that everything is covered – light duty passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, buses, motorcycles, and three wheelers. It doesn’t include sales figures, but it does offer pricing and driving range numbers.
HybridCars.com has changed its formatting this year – breaking out battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles into separate charts; they’d previously been featured in one category as plug-in electric vehicles. The HybridCars.com monthly report covers hybrids, plug-in hybrids, compressed natural gas (with only the Honda Civic Natural Gas featured on that chart), and diesel passenger cars (aka clean diesel).
AutoblogGreen considers them to be “green cars” in its monthly reporting, and includes hybrids, plug-in hybrids, battery electric, clean diesel, and a few fuel-efficient technologies like the Buick Regal eAssist and Chevrolet Malibu ECO mild hybrid. The sales figures are broken out by each brand and company. Analysis of sales trends is based on the total green car sales for the month in relation to recent months and year-ago numbers.

When looking at all of these sales figures and category definitions, here are a few things to keep in mind:

Purchase incentives are being offered on battery electric and plug-in hybrid models and don’t exist on hybrids anymore. Center for Renewable Energy’s website provides an example of what’s available on the market these days. This just covers California, but it also features federal incentives and information on carpool lane stickers – other sources that are taken seriously by car shoppers. Incentives used to be offered on hybrids until their sales volume increased and plug-ins entered the market.
It is a very good idea to have industry standards in place, as Society of Automotive Engineers would attest to. Having uniformity in industry terminology becomes important when it comes to government legislation and regulation, corporate policies, research studies, investors, and buyers of the products.
Simplifying the wording is a good idea. Extended range electric vehicle or plug-in hybrid electric vehicle? I prefer plug-in hybrid. Pure electric vehicle or battery electric vehicle? I vote for battery electric vehicle. Hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle or hydrogen fuel cell vehicle? I would take the word “electric” out of that one. Hybrid electric vehicle or hybrid? Hybrid is a good way to simplify it. And what to do about electric vehicle (EV). It seems to cover both battery electric and plug-in hybrid. Some say it should be plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) at all times; I’m fine with EV since that’s widely used and accepted – and I would rather use it regularly than throwing in “electric car” occasionally.
Automakers are still working out their definitions of “electrified vehicles” and sometimes group hybrids and EVs together. Ford offers hybrid and plug-in hybrid versions of its Ford C-Max and Fusion models – with the plug-in hybrids under the “Energi” label. Toyota is offering the Prius Plug-in Hybrid version of its popular Prius brand. The price is several thousand dollars higher than the traditional hybrid version of the Prius, but there are incentives on the plug-in version.
The experience can be confusing and stress-inducing. Survey researchers at Indiana University released an exhaustive study that found consumers are misinformed about EVs – with 75% incorrectly underestimating the benefits of the vehicles. I got a phone call recently from a friend shopping for a car with his wife. They’re open to owning a hybrid or plug-in, but confusion over the differences between hybrid and EV models doesn’t help; they could easily put off the purchase even longer.
Fleets that have yet to acquire any vehicles outside traditional internal combustion engine models have a similar experience and have definite concerns over their return on investments. Electrified commercial vehicles make their research a bit murky as well, especially with Smith Electric Vehicles and Boulder Electric Vehicles going through financial struggles.
While the total sales volume of EVs and hybrids isn’t growing by leaps and bounds, if you include clean diesel and natural gas as “alternative fuel vehicles” or “green cars,” the sales numbers represent their own segment gaining more credibility. Eventually, those sales figures will likely include hydrogen fuel cell, propane autogas, and biofuels.
Effective educational and question-and-answer materials are very much needed in the marketplace. EDTA and Plug In America are doing a very good job on this front, but stakeholders in clean transportation have a lot of work to do on getting the word out to consumers and fleets who will be making these acquisitions in years to come. Clear labelling of vehicle types would help simplify the process.

Resources to review on the cleantech investment front

Hey there, startup cleantech company executive, are you looking for investors? Would pitching to GM Ventures and other corporate investors on your advanced vehicle technology be of interest to you? If that be the case, check out Cleantech Group’s new online i3 platform. Beyond that announcement, what research tools are out there now for those seeking venture capital and corporate investors or IPOs?

The way i3 works is that start-ups are able to highlight key information about their business model, differentiators, financial backing, partnerships, and leadership team. This process facilitates executives in corporate strategy, R&D, and other business units being able to view a company’s profile in i3 and quickly assess a potential fit. With the new i3, corporate users are now able to get in touch with start-ups worldwide that might make for the best fit, and easily keep track of what their internal team is doing to build their innovation pipeline. Start-ups have more opportunities to find their next partner or investor. You can participate in a webinar on Oct. 15 or 16 to learn more.

CleanTech OC’s 2014 Conference & Expo will be taking place tomorrow, Oct. 7, in Irvine, Calif. I’ll be attending the event that highlights key technologies and drivers spurring economic growth in the Orange County clean technology industry. This is the only annual conference in Orange County dedicated to covering the clean technology space and connecting industry stakeholders throughout the region and state. The LA Cleantech Incubator is hosting its second annual Cleantech Global Showcase during that time – Oct. 6-7 at the landmark Los Angeles Theater.

If you’re interested in tracking stock in cleantech, clean transportation, renewable energy, biofuels, smart grid, and other related fields, check out Alt Energy Stocks and Seeking Alpha. It’s good to review market capitalization, stock price trends, earnings statements, and analyst commentaries on key players in green transportation. Green Auto Market – Extended Edition tracks publicly traded companies in green transportation, along with newsworthy items on private investments, mergers and acquisitions, and government incentives and loans.

“We see the tough realities that innovators face – the political, economic, and technology trends that, when fully understood, influence clean energy business strategies,” says Craig Shields, editor of 2GreenEnergy. Shields and his colleagues bring together investors and investment opportunities in clean, renewable energy and electrified transportation. You can sign up for the free “2GreenEnergy Alert” newsletter, which covers a wide range of topics from lessons learned at a wind energy conference to the latest on ocean acidification. You can also buy one of Shields’ books, including Renewable Energy – Facts and Fantasies.

Biofuels Digest is a good newsletter to sign up for and receive each business day; its editor, Jim Lane, is a name you’ll hear mentioned regularly. He and his staff dig deep into the geopolitical issues surrounding biofuels from the Renewable Fuel Standard to developments in growing overseas markets; and how biofuels are playing out in other markets like cosmetics, medical products, and jet fuels. Advanced Bioeconomy Leadership Conference (ABLCNext), organized by Biofuels Digest, will be taking place in San Francisco next month. Biomaterials, biogas, and ethanol will be among the topics discussed by leaders in the field.

It’s also a very good idea to get on the Navigant Research email list and find out about new market reports being released and events coming up. Smart is the keyword used by the market intelligence firm – smart energy, utilities, transportations, and buildings are tracked and analyzed. You’ll see reports on everything from autonomous vehicles and a forecast of global electric vehicles sales to challenges being faced in the charging infrastructure and making sense of the expanding business of nanotechnologies.

This Week’s Top 10: Selling alternative fuel vehicles as gasoline prices dip, UN Climate Summit in New York revives push for global standards

by Jon LeSage, editor and publisher, Green Auto Market

Here’s my take on the 10 most significant and interesting occurrences during the past week…….

While there are several challenges to increasing electric vehicle (EV) and other alternative fuel vehicle sales, I would say that gasoline prices are one that don’t get mentioned enough. The uprisings in Iraq and Syria caused analysts to forecast increases through this year, but that is not the case today. A survey by analyst Trilby Lundberg reported that gas prices have been down 34 cents since the beginning of summer. GasBuddy is predicting the downward trend will continue. The US Dept. of Energy (DOE) estimates the national average gasoline price for all of 2014 will be $3.46 a gallon, its lowest annual average since 2010. The DOE predicts the average will fall again, to $3.41, in 2015. Survey researchers at Indiana University released an exhaustive study that found consumers are misinformed about EVs – with 75% incorrectly underestimating the benefits of the vehicles. Softening gas prices tend to hit hybrids the hardest in new vehicle sales and used vehicle values. With gasoline prices staying down for now, the challenge increases on how to inform consumers and fleets about the gains available through EVs, hybrids, natural gas vehicles, propane, and hydrogen.
The UN Climate Summit took place last week at the UN Headquarters in New York City. It all started on Sunday, Sept. 21 with the People’s Climate March where more than 300,000 people took the streets in the largest-ever climate change rally. The purpose of the conference was to raise support for a worldwide climate agreement in Paris in 2015. In a speech at the summit, President Obama called for a more ambitious global approach to environmental issues; he talked about a new push to boost what the White House calls “global resilience” in the face of climate change. Environmental groups such as Natural Resources Defense Council and Sierra Club were pleased to see the street march on the 21^st, and have called on the White House and US Environmental Protection Agency to stay committed to reducing carbon at power plants and through energy and transportation policies.
US Department of Energy’s Clean Cities issued a reminder on fleets earning credits on the Alternative Fuel Transportation Program. Covered fleets can earn credits for some vehicles that don’t meet the Energy Policy Act of 1993 definition of an alternative fuel vehicle (AFV). The new policy adds half credits for certain hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in EVs, and fuel cell vehicles; and one quarter credit for neighborhood electric vehicles. Medium- and heavy-duty hybrids are also eligible for a half credit after a fleet has met its light-duty AFV acquisition requirements.
Well, well, well………. Tesla Motors officially exists in the auto industry. Automotive News, the “bible” of the auto industry, has asked Tesla CEO Elon Musk to be a featured speaker at Automotive News World Congress in January. Now, if anybody boos and hisses at him from the audience……..
Westport Innovations Inc. released its newest proprietary technology, the first generation of enhanced spark-ignited (ESI) natural gas system. The new natural gas combustion technology is designed to provide vehicle and engine original manufacturers (OEMs) with a “downsized” natural gas solution that is cost competitive while providing similar levels of power, torque, and fuel economy to a larger diesel engine.
Stevens Creek BMW in Santa Clara, Calif., is offering a good deal on a BMW i3 lease. It’s offering a $369 per month payment on a 36-month lease with $3,995 due at signing. Sales of the BMW i3 were about $350 a month for its first three months on the market before being increased. Sales have been very strong – 2,082 units sold from May to August, and a spike in numbers during August at 1,025. The Tesla Model S now has a direct competitor.
Hewlett-Packard, Lowe’s and Home Depot were among the 2014 winners of the US Environmental Protection Agency’s SmartWay awards. Freight transport companies are honored for improving fuel efficiency, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and reducing air pollution. The award honors top truck, intermodal, and rail carrier partners that are setting efficiency benchmarks in how they move products and supplies.
University of Michigan Energy Institute professor John DeCicco thinks that self-driving cars can make transportation much greener and more sustainable. Connecting cars to the infrastructure around them can make traffic flow much more efficiently, along with other gains. I think I might agree with him.
Former GM vice chair Bob Lutz made another interesting statement: Tesla Motors will only be a “fringe brand” until it introduces the smaller and less expensive Model 3 in late 2017. Lutz also thinks Tesla stock is “grossly overvalued” for now.
Standard Oil tycoon John D. Rockefeller’s heirs are divesting from fossil fuels. The $860 million philanthropic organization, the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, will be divesting from stock in fossil fuels because of its harmful impact on climate change. The announcement was timed to coincide with the UN Climate Summit.

Disruptive technology: What will we be doing to make a living in 25 years?

As covered last week, AltCar Expo keynote speaker Tony Seba made some outrageous statements about the future of transportation technology and economics. The Silicon Valley entrepreneur and Stanford University lecturer inspired humorous comments from panel speakers, and interesting conversations for attendees who had just heard him speak – inspiring for those supporting electrified transportation and solar power and ominous for those making their living in automotive, transportation, and other industries. A question that stuck in my mind: What will Ford Motor Co., Hertz, Mack Trucks, Manheim, and mega-dealers be selling 25 years from now?

The statistics and market analysis presented by Seba were fascinating. They came from his recently published book, Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation: How Silicon Valley Will Make Oil, Nuclear, Natural Gas, Coal, Electric Utilities and Conventional Cars Obsolete by 2030. Here are a few points he made……

The auto industry played an integral role in the development of “disruptive technology.” One interesting point was seeing photos of a street in New York City in 1900 and then in 1913 – with one car featured in 1900 and the street filled with them 13 years later. Seba thinks we’re full bore into another disruption cycle that will radically alter the products and services offered in automotive and transportation.
Lithium batteries are going down 14% in cost per year, and that’s expected to continue for the foreseeable future. Tesla Motor’s “gigafactory,” once it’s up and running, will be able to double the word’s supply of these batteries and will bring their prices down even further.
By 2018, automakers will be offering $40,000 battery electric vehicles (EVs) that can get 200 miles per charge. Disruption will continue – by 2020, that price will drop to $31,000 and its range will be comparable to, or better than, internal combustion engine (ICE) powered cars. By 2023, average EV prices will go down to $21,000. He says that by 2030, all mainstream cars will be electric and ICEs will be obsolete.
As for autonomous cars, disruptive technology will see a big price drop and become economically viable for the future of transportation. In 2012, a LIDAR (light radar) system cost $70,000 for a test self-driving car. That now costs $10,000 per driverless car. As for what consumers think about it, a recent Cisco Systems survey found that 95% of Brazilians are willing right now to use a self-driving car, and 60% of Americans are willing to do the same.
Autonomous vehicles, along with carsharing services like Zipcar and ridesharing services like Uber, will be game changers. Annual sales of new vehicles will shrink, highways will open up, and many of the parking spaces we have in our cities will go away. Highway capacity can be increased four times when autonomous vehicles show up on our roads; there will be no need for 80% of our parking spaces as autonomous vehicles show up exactly when and where they’re needed by the owner. The insurance industry will also take a big hit as the need for car insurance will diminish.
As for solar power, installation of solar panels has been increasing 43% per year worldwide since 2000. If this continues, all of the world’s energy will be solar by 2030, he says.
When the question of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles came up, Seba made comments that obviously didn’t go over too well with hydrogen advocates. Hydrogen is not a disruptive technology and works much the same way as gasoline in production and pipeline/trucking distribution. EVs are three-to-four times more energy efficient than hydrogen.

Seba may be way too off the mark on several of his conclusions, but he’s right about one thing: technology and economics are going through a historic shift right now. The role of automakers and transportation companies is changing – which is why we’re seeing automakers startup car sharing services and test out self-driving cars. It’s also a driving force behind nearly every automaker rolling out an EV and other alternative fuel vehicles.

Clean transportation has a very important role to play. It’s providing a channel for advanced vehicle technologies, reducing emissions and fuel consumption, and supporting economic advancement and job creation in a fast-changing world. Maybe you’ll get laid off by an automaker and go to work for a specialty EV maker, or lithium battery maker, or alternative fuel infrastructure supplier, or an advanced engineering and design firm. That sounds much better than taking drive-through orders at McDonalds. As my grandfather used to say, “Always be looking for another job.”

Who will name the greenest car of the year at LA Auto Show?

For those of us who regularly attend the Green Car of the Year presentation at the LA Auto Show, a very interesting announcement was made last week that caught our attention. Bobit Business Media will present the first-ever Green Fleet Car and Truck of the Year Awards at the 2014 Connected City Summit on Nov. 20, 2014, as part of the Los Angeles Auto Show’s Connected Car Expo.

Bobit Business Media publishes the flagship magazine in the fleet industry, Automotive Fleet, and a few years ago started up Green Fleet and its annual conference. The company will select three finalists in each category, car and truck fleet of the year, based on submissions by OEMs. The finalists will then be voted upon by the readers of Green Fleet, Automotive Fleet, Work Truck and Business Fleet magazines through an online ballot.

Deciding factors will include fuel economy, petroleum displacement, EPA air pollution score, EPA greenhouse gas emissions, Insurance Institute for Highway Safety Association ratings, and passenger capacity for cars and payload capacity for trucks. Bobit Business Media received input on the award criteria from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and Argonne National Laboratory.

“Fuel efficient, environmentally-friendly cars continue to be a hot topic,” said LA Auto Show President Lisa Kaz. “We are excited to include the Green Fleet Awards this year and shed some light on the cars and trucks that make the most positive impact on the environment.”

Per usual, the Green Car of the Year Award appears on the schedule on a Thursday morning during Press & Trade Days at LA Auto Show. At 8:35 am on Nov. 20, the award will be named. It’s not clear whether that will be the Bobit award or the one presented for several years at that day and time by Ron Cogan, publisher and editor of the Green Car Journal magazine. Last year, the winner of that Green Car Journal annual award was the Honda Accord ninth generation line-up, including gasoline, hybrid, and plug-in hybrid variants. The finalists for Green Car of the Year are usually announced in October.

Another confusing point is how close these two award presentations will come to crossing over each other. If the usual Green Car of the Year is handed out at 8:35 in the South Lobby of the convention center, will it clash with the Connected City Summit, scheduled to start at 9:00 that morning? The Bobit press release says it will take place that day at Connected City Summit, but the Connected Car Expo site doesn’t specify those details. It’s possible that LA Auto Show forgot to revise the schedule to say that the Green Fleet Car and Truck Award winners will be handed out at 8:35 in South Lobby. Maybe both awards will be given out that day. I guess I could always ask somebody involved with putting on the conferences to clear up my questions.

This Week’s Top 10: Events you should be scheduling to attend, Mercedes-Benz will roll out a plug-in hybrid version of every model

by Jon LeSage, editor and publisher, Green Auto Market

Here’s my take on the 10 most significant and interesting occurrences during the past week…….

As AltCar Expo reminded me and colleagues last week, going to one of these events is worth all the investment of time and money. It’s great to connect with others and build relationships necessary to move forward on the regulatory front and in getting the word out on innovative vehicles, fuels, and technologies; and to stay current on issues looming up on the horizon. As for what’s coming up next, here are four events to consider: Odyssey – National Alternative Fuel Vehicle Day launches on Oct. 17, 2014. Odyssey is a biennial event from the National Alternative Fuels Training Consortium (NAFTC) at West Virginia University and the U.S. Department of Energy’s Clean Cities. Events are held across the country and sometimes on other days, and are designed to bring national attention to alternative fuel vehicles and advanced technology vehicles as a cleaner and more efficient choice for transportation. For those in Southern California looking for an Odyssey event, consider attending Wings Wheels and Rotors Expo on Sunday, Oct. 26, at Joint Forces Training Base in Los Alamitos, Calif. Long Beach Clean Cities will have a booth there (where I’ll be tabling for a couple of hours). In other events…… For North American Green Fleet Forum & Green Fleet Expo in Sacramento, the early bird discount deadline is October 1st for the 50% off the two day registration for all events, tours, and NAFTC Petroleum Reduction Training. The conference will be held on Oct. 15-16……. Two other clean transportation events to consider: Green Fleet Conference & Expo is Oct. 29-30 in Schaumburg, Ill. Natural Gas Vehicle Conference & Expo will be held Nov. 11-14 in Kansas City, Mo.
Mercedes-Benz r&d chief Thomas Weber said that every M-B model will have a plug-in hybrid version in the next few years. This happened at a press conference for the automaker’s first plug-in hybrid, the S550 plug-in hybrid. As for other cars, it will cover the C class, E class, and replacements for the GLK class that will be called the GLC class and for the M class that will be called the GLE class. Timing hasn’t been released on the entire lineup yet, but Weber said 10 plug-in hybrids would be launched by 2017.
Electric trucks just lost another OEM – Boulder Electric Vehicle has closed down its production facilities in Lafayette, Colo., and Chatsworth, Calif. The company isn’t filing for bankruptcy and will be around to service vehicles that are in use with fleets primarily in Los Angeles, Texas, New York, and Chicago.
California Gov. Jerry Brown just signed bills that should help boost electric vehicle sales. The Charge Ahead California Initiative, introduced by Sen. Kevin de Leon (D-Los Angeles) has set the goal of seeing one million zero emission and near zero emission vehicles on the roads by Jan. 1, 2023; one way this will be supported is making the vehicles more affordable for low-income neighborhoods. The state Air Resources Board has been directed to draft a financial plan to hit the one million target while making sure that disadvantaged communities can participate. The clean-vehicle rebate program will provide an extra credit for low-income drivers; it will also provide assistance on using carsharing programs and installing charging stations in apartment buildings in those communities. Carpool lane stickers will be increasing through AB 2013 by Assemblyman Al Muratsuchi (D-Torrance). It raises the cap on the Green Sticker program for electric vehicles from 55,000 to 70,000 new cars.
Fisker Automotive’s owner Wanxiang Group is going to speed up re-launch of the Fisker Karma. Wanxiang will be using a design from the company’s last year of production in 2012 for reintroduction of the plug-in hybrid sports car by next year.
The Union of Concerned Scientists say that electric vehicles (EVs) are doing good – in much of the country, they’re cleaner in emissions per miles driven than even the best of the hybrids. However, the group said that EVs are cleaner than hybrids in only 45% of the country. The reason for that conclusion: the majority of the electricity used to charge the vehicles was generated at coal-fired power plants.
Tesla Motors took more action on legal battles with dealers. In New Jersey, Tesla filed in court arguing that New Jersey regulators don’t have the authority to shut down its direct sales. That goes against an April ruling by the New Jersey Vehicle Commission blocking sales at Tesla stores in New Jersey as of April 15, 2014, when their licenses expired. In Massachusetts, Tesla says that the high court’s recent ruling supports the automaker’s central argument about its right to set up retails stores and sell its electric vehicles directly to consumers. Dealer groups say that a ban on factory stores still exists despite the court’s ruling.
Propane use continues to expand as more public transportation fleets adopt it along with school bus fleets. Six US-based public transit fleets received awards last week from Metro Magazine and Propane Education & Research Council during BusCon Expo in Indianapolis. A Canadian bus operator has also joined the propane autogas community. Southland Transportation Ltd, which operates school, charter, and specialized buses in Alberta and Saskatchewan, has taken delivery of 101 new Vision propane-powered school buses from Blue Bird Corp.
A German court lifted the ban on Uber. The leading ridesharing company and its drivers had been banned from Germany. The temporary injunction had been imposed by the court at the end of last month before a hearing could be held.
California just issued 29 permits for testing self-driving cars in the state on public roads. Audi was proud to receive the first two of them, but 25 of them went to Google Inc. for testing 25 adapted Lexus SUVs. Two more went to Mercedes-Benz. Audi has taken a lead on test programs, being the first to be granted a permit in Nevada, and the first to test Florida’s “connected car” expressway.