For Today: Polestar 1 could be longest range plug-in hybrid, Toyota showing long range fuel cell vehicle

Polestar 1 could be longest range PHEV:  Volvo Car Group took a step forward on its commitment to electrify its fleet through the new Polestar division. The Polestar 1 plug-in hybrid is scheduled to roll off the production line in mid-2019. It’s a two-door, 2+2 seat coupe with an ‘Electric Performance Hybrid’ drivetrain capable of going about 93 miles on battery power. That could be less in the U.S., with Polestar not specifying whether range is based on European or U.S. standards. If it is 93 miles, it would be the longest range plug-in hybrid electric vehicle on the market. It will have a lot of power, with an output of 600 horsepower and 1000 Nm of torque, appealing to the high-performance car buyer. It will be built on Volvo’s Scalable Platform Architecture (SPA) but approximately 50% is new and created by Polestar’s engineers. A carbon fiber body reduces bodyweight. The company confirmed plans are in place for three Polestar models to be built at a production facility in China. Polestar 2 will be a battery electric vehicle, mid-sized to compete with the Tesla Model 3. It’s slated to start production in late 2019 and will have higher production volumes than the Polestar 1.

Autonomous Bolts in NYC:  General Motors will be testing out self-driving Chevy Bolts in New York City through its Cruise Automation subsidiary. The automaker will be the first to test Level 4 autonomous vehicles in the state, according to Governor Andrew Cuomo; Level 4 allows the car to go into fully autonomous mode with the driver capable of taking control. GM engineers will travel along in the driver’s seat to monitor performance, with a second person riding in the passenger seat. The state of New York has taken a cautious approach to testing out self-driving cars, with its current rules expiring on April 1, 2018. Participating automakers need to list specific vehicles being used for the tests in their application, and each tested vehicle must be covered by a $5 million insurance policy. Another rule under the state’s law is for each testing company to pay for a police escort to accompany the autonomous test vehicle. Other states are taking a more flexible approach to testing autonomous vehicle, with New York requiring the most oversight.

Toyota showing hydrogen-powered concept:  Toyota will be showing the Fine-Comfort Ride fuel cell concept vehicle next week at the Tokyo Motor Show. The company claims it can be refueled at a hydrogen station within three minutes, and will have 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) of driving range. That would be double the U.S. rating of 312 miles of range for the Toyota Mirai; however, Toyota said that the 1,000 km range rating is based on Japan’s JC08 test cycle, which would likely be farther than the U.S. rating. The concept car will also come with artificial intelligence and automated driving features, Toyota said. The “premium saloon” will have room for six passengers. The seat layout can be flexibly adjusted to make the vehicle as comfortable and user-friendly as possible.

    For Today: Tesla Model 3 slowdown may come from steel, EVS30 successful in Stuttgart

    Why Model 3 slowed down:  What’s been slowing down an expected higher Tesla Model 3 production volume? Auto analysts say that Tesla is struggling with welding together a mostly steel vehicle with the Model 3, which has differed quite a bit from the mainly aluminum bodies of the Model S and Model X. That showed up with the electric carmaker falling short on its third quarter production target for the Model 3. The Wall Street Journal had reported on the slowdown and more light was shed on it during a video about the Model 3 production line posted on Twitter by CEO Elon Musk. Tesla is in a tight spot, pinning much of its future on the Model 3 production line ramped up to big numbers starting at the end of this year. Automakers such as General Motors with the Chevy Bolt, and several other automakers with their long-range EVs, have been anxiously waiting to see the impact of the Model 3 on the market.

    RNG at ports:  You can watch a new video from the California Natural Gas Vehicle Coalition (CNGVC) to learn more about how renewable natural gas is being tried out in near-zero emission trucks at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. “Powering with the Cummins-Westport ISX12N Natural Gas Engine” shows how a new 12-liter natural gas engine vehicle from Cummins-Westport is being tried out by the ports. A Class 8 heavy-duty truck carries loads from the ports to drop-off points in Southern California. “For us, having an engine that can haul the loads in these conditions, while offering us the emissions benefits of a near zero natural gas engine, is essential to the future success of our business,” said Victor LaRosa Jr., operations manager of port drayage trucking company Heavy Loads Transfer.

    Startups competing with Tesla:  You can get a good idea of the challenges of competing with Tesla as small startup company getting into the high-performance electric vehicle race. Automotive News takes a look at how Faraday Future, Lucid Motors, Bollinger Motors, Local Motors, and Elio Motors (not to mention, Karma Automotive and Fisker Inc.) are taking on a very big challenge with Tesla; along with entering the auto manufacturing business in the first place. Starting from scratch will cost hundreds of millions of dollars without any revenue, and recruitment of talented professionals to design and build the electric cars while passing strict government safety tests.

    EVS30 successful in Stuttgart:  Electric Vehicle Symposium (EVS30) had been going strong in Stuttgart, Germany, with more than 1,700 participants attending panel discussions from Oct. 9-11. Overall, about 9,500 people have been in attendance as participants and trade fair visitors. Panelists and those visiting exhibits have been discussing the future of mobility at the 30th EVS. The mood was positive, and discussions focused on the next phase of the EV industry’s future coming together this year. “Technological prerequisites have been created and some electrification products are already available, as demonstrated by the 353 exhibitors…….” according to conference planners.

      For Today: Mahindra investing $600M in EVs, Tesla fires hundreds of workers

      Mahindra investing more in EVs:  India’s electric vehicle market is seeing more support coming from Mahindra & Mahindra, which just announced a $600 million investment in the technology. Electric versions of its current crossover SUVs will be scheduled in the near future. Mahindra had just lost a bid for a 10,000 EV contract with the government’s Energy Efficiency Services Limited agency to its main Indian competitor, Tata Motors. Mahindra was awarded part of the contract after lowering prices to match Tata’s lowest bid; the company admitted it won’t make any profits off the sales of its eVerito electric sedan to the Indian agency. Tata was able to win the majority of the contract even though it has yet to manufacture any EVs. Mahindra has been in the segment for a few years with its e20 and e20 plus small electric hatchback models, the eVerito electric sedan, the eSupro electric van, and the e-Alfa Mini three-wheeler. The government wants to stop sales of fossil-fuel powered vehicles and is supporting electric vehicle development. The company’s subsidiary, Mahindra Electric, will operate as a separate entity supplying components to the Mahindra & Mahindra company, which will manufacture the EVs. The company currently operates a battery manufacturing plant and hopes to set up another larger facility soon.

      Paris saying goodbye to fossil-fuel cars:  The city of Paris wants to speed up the elimination of gasoline- and diesel-powered cars by ending their sales starting in 2030. France had already set a target date of 2040 for banning sales of cars running on fossil fuels. The nation’s capital, which will host the summer Olympics in 2024 and not long ago hosted a worldwide agreement on climate change, had already been moving toward banning diesel cars by the time of the Olympics. City officials said it will probably not be a formal ban, but will be introducing a deadline to phase out internal-combustion engine vehicles. “This is about planning for the long term with a strategy that will reduce greenhouse gases,” said Christophe Najdovski, an official responsible for transport policy at the office of Mayor Anne Hidalgo. “Transport is one of the main greenhouse gas producers…. so we are planning an exit from combustion engine vehicles, or fossil-energy vehicles, by 2030.”

      Tesla employees terminated at crucial time:  Tesla has fired hundreds of employees, according to a recent report in the San Jose Mercury News, as pressure mounts to build more of the Model 3 sedans. Workers estimated between 400 and 700 employees have been fired, including engineers, managers, and factory workers. Tesla wouldn’t say how many employees were let go, although the company expects employee turnover to be similar to last year’s attrition. They were not layoffs, the company said, but were dismissals based on a company-wide annual review. In interviews with the newspaper, former and current employees said there was little or no warning was given prior to the dismissals. “As with any company, especially one of over 33,000 employees, performance reviews also occasionally result in employee departures,” a Tesla spokesman said. “Tesla is continuing to grow and hire new employees around the world.”

        For Today: Tesla recalling Model X electric SUV, Richard Branson investing in Hyperloop One

        Tesla Model X recall:  Tesla is recalling about 11,000 Model X electric SUVs to correct a problem in the second-row seats. For the Model X units manufactured between Oct. 28, 2016, and Sept. 1, 2017 with a second row seat that folds down flat, Tesla will be correcting an error that could mean the second row seats would move forward in a crash. The problem stems from incorrectly adjusted seat cables and was discovered through internal testing. It only affects about 3% of those vehicles. The electric automaker is taking on the voluntary recall through a 10-minute procedure done by mobile service operators. The company hasn’t received reports of any issues or accidents related to the problem; customers were to be alerted starting yesterday.

        What Ford learned from workplace charging:  Ford Motor Co. will be tripling its electric vehicle charging stations available to its employees in North America from 200 to 600 chargers over the next three years. The first 200 have been in place for three years and have been the source of data on charging habits used by the automaker in its electrification strategy. Ford reported that access to workplace charging appears to be crucian for EV owners and can influence their purchase decisions. Bringing more workplace charging will be part of mass market adoption of EV technology for Ford and the overall industry, the company said. Through early August, Ford’s charging network had provided about 2 million miles of electric driving to its employees.

        VW electric trucks and buses:  Volkswagen Group’s truck and bus division will be investing about $1.7 billion into new technology to support battery electric commercial vehicles targeted at urban markets with growing concern over poor air quality. Andreas Renschler, head of the unit, said Wednesday that the investment will go into electric drivetrains, autonomous systems, and cloud-based software. The new technology will end up in systems used by the company’s U.S. truck affiliate, Navistar International. In Europe, it will go to the company’s MAN and Scania nameplates for all-electric buses that will come to European cities next year, he said. That goes with offerings to bus operators that include biodiesel, hybrid systems, and natural gas vehicles.

        Clean vehicle jobs:  A new interactive map shows that the Midwest, Northeast, and California have been at the heart of job creation and economic growth in clean vehicles. As the federal standards for fuel economy and emissions are under review, the BlueGreen Alliance Foundation issued a study looking at what’s happened since the federal standards were finalized five years ago. The map highlights advanced vehicle, component, and material manufacturing facilities, and jobs across the U.S. It was done to provide a local-level view of innovation across the industry that supports energy security, economic growth, and global competitiveness.

        California supports more clean vehicle programs:  On Tuesday, California Gov. Jerry Brown signed several bills to strengthen California’s zero- and near-zero-emission vehicles. One of them, A.B.739, requires at least 15% of specified heavy-duty vehicles newly purchased by state agencies to be zero emission vehicles beginning in 2025; and at least 30% of those vehicles to be ZEVs beginning in 2030. S.B.498 will require at least 50% of the state’s light-duty vehicle fleet to be ZEVs by 2025, up from the current goal of 25% by 2020. The bill also requires the California Air Resources Board to develop policies and programs that will increase ZEVs in private-sector fleets. Several other assembly bills were signed into law, including one that allow certain clean vehicles to access high-occupancy vehicle lanes, and another authorizing local jurisdictions to dedicate on-street parking spaces for electric vehicle charging.

        USPS going electric:  The U.S. Postal Service is getting ready to bring in electrified delivery trucks, according to photos received by Trucks.com. One of the publication’s readers sent in photo of a road tests being done about 30 miles northwest of Washington, D.C., of a USPS badged mail delivery truck likely coming from Workhorse Group and truck body manufacturer VT Hackney. They’re among five entries into the USPS’ Next Generation Delivery Vehicle Program. Workhorse confirmed it was their truck in a tweet Monday after the story was first published in Trucks.com. Workhorse will supply the powertrain and chassis, and VT Hackney will build the body if they win the contract with USPS.

        Richard Branson investing in Hyperloop One:  Hyperloop One has gained funding from billionaire Richard Branson and will be changing its name to reflect it. The company announced Thursday it will be renamed Virgin Hyperloop One, and it followed a significant but undisclosed investment by the Virgin Group founder. Based in downtown Los Angeles, Hyperloop One comes from a concept released a few years ago by Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk. The transport system will carry passengers and cargo in pods through tubes at speeds of more than 250 miles per hour; and that could eventually go as high as 750 miles per hour. The company has been testing its pods in Nevada. Branson’s Virgin Galactic has been setting up office space in Southern California and will be directly competing with SpaceX in the space transport business.

          For Today: Finalists named for Green Car of the Year award, Tata Motors wins first contract to supply electric vehicles

          Green Car of the Year nominees:  Five finalists have been named for the 2018 Green Car of the Year award, which will be presented on Nov. 30 during the LA Auto Show’s partner event, AutoMobility LA. Honda received two of the nominations. The 2018 Honda Accord comes with three now powertrain options – two direct-injected and turbocharged 4-cylinder engines and the third generation of Honda’s two-motor hybrid powertrain. The Honda Clarity comes in all-electric, plug-in hybrid, or hydrogen fuel cell options. The Hyundai Ioniq comes in three versions – hybrid, battery electric, and plug-in hybrid. The all-new Nissan Leaf comes with a redesigned look, longer driving range, and Nissan Intelligent Mobility technologies, Toyota’s eighth generation Camry is available with three new powertrains – a 2.5-liter 4-cylinder, 3.5-liter V-6, and a Hybrid powered by the automaker’s next-generation Toyota Hybrid System. The winner will be named at 8:00 am PST on Nov. 30 inside the Technology Pavilion.

          BMW forging China JV alliance:  BMW may be forging another alliance with a Chinese automaker to serve that market, which will likely focus on electric vehicles. The German automaker is now creating a joint venture agreement with Great Wall Motor in China, according to two sources familiar with the matter. BMW previously set up a JV in China with Brilliance China Automotive Holdings; the partners produce cars at two plants in Shenyang. The company is now it talks with Great Wall about setting up a JV company to manufacture cars in the eastern city of Changsu, a BMW executive said.

          EV sales in India:  Tata Motors has won a major contract with the Indian government to supply an order for 10,000 electric cars. It will be the very first EVs that the major Indian automaker has sold. The country is making efforts to reduce emissions and curb fuel imports. Prime Minister Narendra Modi sees the EV acquisition as a way to support the country’s pledge to ban the sale of internal combustion engine light-vehicles by 2030. Mahindra and Mahindra has so far been India’s only domestic carmaker that currently makes EVs. India is far behind China in EV sales, with China selling about 336,000 units last year versus about 450 in India, according to the International Energy Agency.

           

            For Today: Tesla semi-tractor is being delayed yet again, Waymo promoting the safety of self-driving cars

            Another delay on Tesla truck:  The Tesla semi-tractor heavy-duty truck is being delayed yet again, this time until mid-November. Resources will go instead to fix production bottlenecks for the Model 3. Another priority, in which Musk tweeted about, is diverting resources to help bring Puerto Rico back through battery production to help the island recover from hurricane devastation. Residents have been going without electricity. Tesla was below its production target to build more than 1,500 Model 3 units in the third quarter. The company had just delivered around 220 Model 3 sedans and produced 260 during the quarter. Earlier this week Tesla reported that “production bottlenecks” had left it behind the planned ramp-up for the Model 3.

            Charging study:  The National Renewable Energy Laboratory has published a study on the state of charging stations in the U.S. The study looked into best practices for avoiding wasting funds on charging equipment that could be the wrong type or located in the wrong places. There are quite a few variables to consider including the ratio of plug-in hybrid to battery electric vehicles. Plug-in hybrids have smaller battery packs than all-electrics; they charge faster and become depleted more quickly. Drivers do have the advantage of running out of battery power and getting there powered by a gasoline engine.

            Waymo public education drive:  Waymo is teaming up with non-profit groups to talk Americans into believing in the safety of self-driving cars. Google’s self-driving car company is teaming up with Mothers Against Drunk Driving, the National Safety Council, and the Federation for Blind Children in a campaign called “Let’s Talk Self-Driving.” Waymo also emphasizes that autonomous vehicles can eliminate most alcohol-related fatal crashes, and would offer the blind a transportation option. The company said the public awareness ad campaign will begin in Arizona on Monday. That’s where Waymo has been doing a lot of its self-driving car testing. The ad campaign will be delivered through digital ads, outdoor billboards, fuel pump advertising, and radio spots.

             

              For Today: Continental testing out robo-taxi technology, Proterra announces longer range drivetrain

              Continental joins robo-taxi movement:  Major auto supplier Continental is making moves to join the futuristic robo-taxi world, starting with an autonomous shuttle called CUbE at its Frankfurt corporate campus. Continental won’t become a manufacturer – CUbE is a testing ground for automated technology that can be supplied to OEMs. The German supplier is watching several OEMs – including General Motors, Ford, Renault-Nissan, and Daimler – making moves toward autonomous mobility services. That might be through an alliance with Lyft, Uber, Maven, Waymo, or another partner committed to the new technology and ride services it has to offer. While the robo-taxi label has stuck in the past year, it’s much more than a taxi ride. This will include shared rides, point-to-point short trips, transporting groups, taxi rides, and shuttle services.

              Propane-powered Ford E-350:  Roush CleanTech is now offering a propane-powered Ford E-350 single-rear-wheel and dual-rear-wheel cutaway targeted to buyers of transit shuttles, Type A school buses, and delivery trucks. The company has delivered over 1,000 Ford E-450 propane autogas cutaways to fleets across the country. For agencies and companies looking for smaller, lighter clean vehicles, the new propane Ford E-350 will be available at the beginning of the 2018 model year. They will be certified by the Environmental Protection Agency and California Air Resources Board and compliant with heavy-duty onboard diagnostics.

              Proterra makes two announcements:  Electric bus maker Proterra just introduced the DuoPower drivetrain for its Catalyst all-electric vehicles. The Catalyst bus will be five times more efficient than a standard diesel bus with a lot more horsepower and acceleration. It offers a 20% increase in efficiency over Proterra’s standard ProDrive system. For the Catalyst E2 max model, the DuoPower drivetrain enables a nominal range of 426 miles on a single charge, which the company says far exceeds the average distance of North American transit routes. Separately, the company announced that major bus and coach manufacturer Van Hool has selected Proterra to provide its highly efficient battery platform for Van Hool’s first all-electric motor coach. Van Hool’s CX Series electric vehicle will utilize the E2 battery technology.

               

               

                For Today: Amazon competing with UPS and FedEx, Possible spy photo of Tesla semi truck

                Amazon ramping up for delivery services:  Amazon.com is getting ready to take over deliveries that it had counted on UPS and FedEx to take care of. The company is trying out a new delivery service that will offer free two-day delivery and reduce overcrowding at its warehouses, according to two people familiar with the plan. Testing the new service, called Seller Flex, began two years ago as a trial project in India. The company has been marketing the service to U.S. merchants to prepare for national expansion. It started out this year in west coast states with a broad rollout scheduled for 2018, according to the sources. It’s tied into heavy-duty and medium-duty delivery trucks that will service its Amazon Prime and Amazon Flex units. Amazon last year launched Seller Fulfilled Prime, which lets merchants in the Amazon network who don’t stow items in Amazon warehouses still have their products listed with the Prime badge. That gives these merchants the opportunity to tap into the two-day delivery service. Amazon is gaining control over these deliveries, though it may still use third-party couriers to carry out deliveries with their own fleet vehicles.

                Fuel economy stays flat:  Brandon Schoettle and Michael Sivak, of the University of Michigan’s Transportation Research Institute, reported that average fuel economy (window-sticker value) of new vehicles sold in the U.S. in September was 25.3 mpg. That was unchanged from August and below the 25.5 mpg peak reached in August 2014. The value for September is up 5.2 mpg since October 2007, the first month of the monitoring. Emissions have improved. The University of Michigan Eco-Driving Index (EDI), which estimates the average monthly emissions of greenhouse gases generated by an individual U.S. driver, improved to 0.81 in July 2017; that’s down from 0.83 in June 2017.

                Tesla truck photo:  A possible spy shot photo of Tesla’s soon-to-be-launched Class 8 semi-tractor heavy-duty truck was spotted and posted this week on the Reddit social media site. It was posted then abruptly removed on Tuesday morning after showing what could be the Tesla truck on a delivery truck bed in the California desert. It does look similar to a design teaser released earlier this year by Tesla. The EV-maker declined to comment on it. Tesla plans to reveal the truck later this month – on Oct. 26. It’s scheduled to be operating on public roads by 2020.

                  For Today: September sees great electrified vehicle sales, Green Commuter bringing Tesla Model X carsharing to LA

                  September plug-in sales:  Hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles had a strong U.S. sales month in September over August and September 2016. BEVs had their highest month ever, beating out the previous leading month of December 2016. Tesla led the way with the Model S and Model X doing exceptionally well and the Chevy Bolt having its highest month ever. On the plug-in hybrid side, the Toyota Prius Prime led the category at 1,899 in September, versus 1,453 for the Chevy Volt. BEVs came in at 13,421 units sold in September, versus 7,719 for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.

                  Solar leading renewable source:  Solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity grew at a fast rate last year and is expected to be higher in capacity growth than any other renewable technology in the world by 2022. PV capacity grew by 50% last year, according to a market analysis and forecast report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). This year, solar power plant additions are higher than that of the other leading global energy power sources – wind, coal, natural gas, and nuclear. For those concerned about where energy comes from, solar is starting to catch up with the most polluting energy source out there, coal. “We see renewables growing by about 1,000 GW (gigawatts) by 2022, which equals about half of the current global capacity in coal power, which took 80 years to build,” Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director.

                  Green Commuter offering Model X shared rides:  An electric vehicle carsharing service utilizing the Tesla Model X just opened in Los Angeles. Green Commuter has brought its service offering vanpoolers the opportunity to lease the electric SUV for daily commutes during typical hours, and to offer the EVs for carsharing by individuals or companies for fleet replacement the rest of the time. The startup company launched a 20-vehicle car-sharing program in Chattanooga last year, and implemented its vanpooling program in Los Angeles earlier this year. Users download the Green Commuter app, where they can rent a Model X by the hour or weekend. “Angelenos understand the impacts of congestion; L.A.’s bad traffic is an enormous waste of time and carries high human costs in terms of public health and the environment. Ridesharing and carsharing with electric vehicles brings tremendous benefits in terms of reduced traffic and improved air quality, while providing mobility and commuting savings to its users,” said Gustavo Occhiuzzo, CEO of Green Commuter.

                    For Today: GM and Ford move the electrification revolution a few steps further

                    A well-known automotive market analyst last year told me that he expects sales of battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles to make up 10% to 15% of U.S. new vehicle sales about a decade from now. That will mean that plug-in vehicle sales will have a real impact on manufacturing, marketing, infrastructure, and aftermarket products and services. The days of early adopters have come to an end, and the next phase is beginning – as made evident yesterday by announcements from General Motors and Ford Motor Co.

                    GM plans to launch 20 new electric vehicles by 2023. Two new all-electric cars will come out in the next 18 months. Whether that’s coming from upcoming fossil fuel bans in several countries, the popularity of Tesla, China’s new energy vehicle market, launching the Chevy Bolt, the emergence of other long-range all-electric vehicles, and a long list of EVs in manufacturer product pipelines, the future is here now.

                    “General Motors believes in an all-electric future,” said Mark Reuss, GM Product Development, Purchasing and Supply Chain EVP. “Although that future won’t happen overnight, GM is committed to driving increased usage and acceptance of electric vehicles through no-compromise solutions that meet our customers’ needs.”

                    The automaker is also developing hydrogen fuel cell technology as part of its zero emission vehicle drive. One of these is the Silent Utility Rover Universal Superstructure (SURUS), a four-wheel drive concept vehicle that runs on fuel cells. These provide power to electric motors, making it an ideal ZEV platform for delivery trucks, ambulances, and other applications. Yet EVs will be gaining most of the automaker’s focus and support.

                    Ford is on track to deliver 13 electrified vehicles over the next five years. Seven have been announced, including a 300-mile range crossover EV that will come out in 2020.

                    Sherif Marakby, Ford’s head of electrification and autonomous vehicles, said that the automaker will increase the number of all-electric vehicles it will offer, but did not provide details.

                    Ford is establishing an internal team its calling “Team Edison” to study and develop battery electric cars.

                    “We see an inflection point in the major markets toward battery electric vehicles,” Marakby said. “We feel it’s important to have a cross-functional team all the way from defining the strategy plans and implementation to advanced marketing.”

                    Here’s my take on a few trends and developments to watch for:

                    • Battery electric vehicles will likely win out over plug-in hybrids in the next decade. While the Chevy Volt and Toyota Prius Prime will continue to do well, automakers tend to use plug-in hybrid variations of existing models as a way to transition car owners over to plug-in vehicles. EV range will be getting better, and all-electric vehicles are easier to maintain and keep in operation than internal combustion engine vehicles and plug-in hybrids. They use a lot less parts and components and are easier to maintain. Tires and brakes have to be replaced but there isn’t much else to changeover, given that the electric drive train is well made for EVs that are strong in sales.
                    • Tesla is playing a leading role in public perception and experience with the technology. The Tesla Model 3 is expected to play a leading role in mass adoption, but the upcoming Model Y electric crossover will be built at mass scale, too. There will be other models coming out including the semi truck aimed at buyers of heavy-duty commercial vehicles. Tesla’s stock performance continues to stay strong and validates that institutional and individual backers believe in the business model. (As a side note, GM and Ford stock prices did well after announcing strong September sales and serious electrification campaigns.)
                    • German automakers may be just as important as Tesla in moving the product development and sales trend forward. Volkswagen, Daimler, and BMW made big announcements a year ago in the wake of the “Dieselgate” scandal, and with growing pressure from German regulators and from a few other countries. Tesla was taking the lead in the luxury EV side, but an impressive list of pre-orders on the Model 3 opened up the playing field. The product pipeline is covering the bases from Tesla-competitive automakers – electric sedans, SUVs and crossovers, and luxury vehicles.
                    • Car buyers want to see realistic, real-world numbers on per-charge driving range, charging time, fast charging, option and trim levels, resale value forecasts, top speeds, horsepower, and torque. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency range ratings are gaining more confidence than the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC), with the NEDC using a very different cycle analysis and much longer range.
                    • Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles won’t reach mass adoption, with EVs winning out. They won’t be going away, with automakers such as Toyota, GM, Honda, Hyundai, Daimler, and BMW committed to the technology. They’ll probably stay at a low level in passenger vehicle sales with a few of the automakers going over to military and commercial vehicle applications. But the barriers will be hard to cross – having enough fueling stations, the cost of the technology and sticker prices coming way down, and finding broad support and trust in the technology. The typical pump price for fueling with hydrogen isn’t known yet, and concerns are being expressed on how expensive it will be to collect and extract hydrogen from natural gas and other sources; and to deliver it by truck and pipelines to gas stations. The ZEV aspect makes hydrogen fuel cell vehicles very attractive, but where is the hydrogen coming from? And EVs are getting cheaper and better all the time, along with the charging infrastructure.
                    • Countries adopting fossil-fuel bans will likely have to back off those holistic mandates. It’s much more likely to take several more years (another half century?) before ZEV adoption becomes accepted at that level. It will be tied into radical transformation in how we drive and get around town. An integration of autonomous vehicles, mobility services, and electrification will be behind it, but that is going to take decades to meet thorough testing and safety standards, insurance and liability issues, and to gain enough confidence and trust to reach mass scale. I expect that governments will go back to mandating a certain percentage of new vehicle sales meet their mandates; incentive programs will probably have to be deployed in China and other markets.
                    • There’s also the issue of fleet and commercial vehicles used in transport, delivery, and moving employees and customers from Point A to Point B. Fleets are likely to integrate the fuels and technologies – with trucks and buses powered by renewable natural gas and renewable diesel, electrification, and propane and natural gas; and hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and all-electric passenger vehicles used by law enforcement agencies, administrative vehicles, and other functions. Fleet operators make decisions based on economic and environmental factors, along with functionality and ease of use, as do consumers.