autonomous vehicles Archives

This Week’s Top 10: Model S pulling ahead of Leaf in EV sales, Autonomous vehicles take over SAE World Congress

by Jon LeSage, editor and publisher, Green Auto Market

Here’s my take on the 10 most significant and interesting occurrences during the past week…….

EV sales in April: The Tesla Model S secured its top spot in front of the Nissan Leaf for the month of April – 1,900 for the Model S versus 1,553 for the Leaf (according to HybridCars.com and Baum & Associates). For 2015, the Model S is leading US the electric vehicle (EV) segment – with 6,800 units sold compared to No. 2 Leaf at 5,638 sold this year. The Leaf is still leading the pack as the highest-selling EV ever – nearing almost 78,000 in the US and expected to cross the 200,000 mark in global sales sometime this summer. The Chevrolet Volt saw 905 units in April, its highest monthly total since last December. There were a few surprises in the top 10 in April EV sales – one of them being the best-selling month for the Chevrolet Spark EV at 920 units sold. The Ford C-Max Energi also saw a big increase on the list, and the BMW i3 saw its first sales drop since entering the US market.
Autonomous vehicles take over SAE World Congress: Automakers are running the gamut on self-driving cars – similar to alternative fuel vehicles. No one technology is winning but several are being considered. “There are many schools of thought and many concepts being tried,” said Cadillac spokesman David Caldwell, during the annual SAE World Congress in Detroit. German automakers have been taking the lead – including BMW unveiling the i3 hybrid version equipped with Traffic Jam Assistant two years ago, which allows the vehicle to accelerate, brake and steer at speeds up to 25 mph. Keynote speaker Ray Kurzweil, director of engineering at Google and a recognized futurist, says that the days are approaching when an inexpensive computer outperforms a human at a task such as driving; reasons for self-driving cars moving forward include their role in drastically reducing road fatalities and freeing people up to do something useful during their dreaded commuter trips.
Demand strong for CNG/propane F-150: Ford Motor Co. says the 2016 F-150 pickup will be available with a 5.0-liter V8 engine that can run on compressed natural gas or propane. Ford says demand for these trucks has been steadily increasing for the past five years. Ford sold a record 16,821 commercial/fleet vehicles with CNG/propane gaseous engine-prep packages in 2014, and the automaker thinks that 2015 will be even stronger. Customers have been asking for more trucks and vans that run on these alternative fuels because it lowers their fleet operating costs and reduces greenhouse gas emissions.
Vouchers in Chicago: VIA Motors has gained an exclusive voucher program for Chicago area fleets and business owners. VIA says it will dramatically reduce the initial costs of owning a VIA Motors extended range pickup truck, extended range electric passenger van, or extended range electric cargo van. The extended range pickup is now eligible for a $41,200 voucher, the passenger van is eligible for a $39,460 voucher and the cargo van is eligible $42,892.
Price coming down for Volt: The 2016 Chevrolet Volt will be priced from $33,995 when it goes on sale sometime this fall; the price, which includes delivery, is $1,175 lower than that of the outgoing 2015 Volt. The 2016 Volt also offers appealing features – extended range, out to 50 miles on the battery and a fifth “seating position” in the car. That will put the Volt more in line with average transaction prices of light vehicles sold in the US.
Sources for utility power changing: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that 91% of a forecasted 20 gigawatts (GW) in new generating capacity will come from wind, solar, and natural gas. By the end of 2015, EIA forecasts that 9.3 GW of new wind generating capacity, 6.3 GW of natural gas, and 2.2 GW of solar. Coal’s share of the electricity-generating load will continue to decrease.
Toyota EVs in China: While Toyota has been shifting away from electric vehicles (EVs) in markets such as the US in favor of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, the Chinese government would like to see a different approach adopted. China wants to see automakers roll out more EVs to meet its “new energy” targets. In joint ventures with Chinese partners Guangzhou Automobile Group and FAW Group, Toyota will introduce the Leahead and Ranz all-electric brands this year in that market. It’s probably for show to please the Chinese government, analysts say.
Hybrid and EV commercial vehicles: Navigant Research predicts that global sales of electric drive and electric-assisted commercial vehicles will grow from less than 16,000 vehicles in 2014 to nearly 160,000 in 2013. The size and weight of battery packs in electric vehicles can limit usability for several fleets, but their products choices are becoming more versatile in the next few years for trucks, vans, and buses. Vehicles that qualify for these Navigant Research study categories fall under a broad definition. That includes hybrid vehicles used in commercial applications (medium-to-heavy duty); and niche applications for plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles that can use onboard electrical energy to replace idling diesel engines or provide temporary power to buildings or tools at remote sites.
Wrightspeed launches turbine generator: Wrightspeed Inc., a manufacturer of range-extended electric vehicle powertrains, has launched the Fulcrum, a turbine generator and electric vehicle range extender. Utilizing a proprietary set of advancements, the Fulcrum’s design could represent a breakthrough that challenges today’s piston engines and existing turbine generators. Wrightspeed is hopeful that the 80 kilowatt Fulcrum turbine generator sets a new standard as the company works to evolve electric vehicle propulsion. Located in Silicon Valley, Wrightspeed was founded by Ian Wright, a co-founder of Tesla Motors back in its startup days.
Tesla enters CPO market: Tesla Motors has launched a certified pre-owned (CPO) website page, but it might be a bit early in the process to see much inventory there. During a recent media conference call, Kelley Blue Book’s Alec Gutierrez said that with current monthly sales of the Model S in the 1,500 to 1,700 range, it’s still early in the remarketing process. It does make sense to get started now, though, he said. “They want to have enough certified pre-owned inventory out there to help give consumers something in between the Model 3, whenever that arrives, and the full blown Model S or Model X, when that arrives,” Gutierrez said. “So to me, it’s a good play, but a long-term strategy for sure.”

Reading my notes on the best parts of attending AltCar Expo 2014

Now in its ninth year, AltCar Expo 2014 held in Santa Monica, Calif., on Friday and Saturday, was a must-attend for several stakeholders in clean transportation. Those of you who’ve receive this newsletter have previously read all about it. As for this year, here are a few highlights from my notes.…………

The conference format was different this year. The panel topics were broken out into three sections on Friday – Fleets Track, Policy Track, and AltBuild Energy Track. NAFA Fleet Management Association presented workshops with Katherine Vigneau, professional development strategist, and Bryan Flansburg, director of transportation at University of Colorado and NAFA vice president, educating attendees through the association’s Certified Automotive Fleet Manager (CAFM) program. The role of state and local governments in converting over to alternative fuels, and the role that PEV Collaborative has played in California, were discussed during the policy track. AltBuild Energy co-located with AltCar Expo for building planners and designers to collaborate and discuss energy efficiency and the alternative fuel infrastructure.
One of the highlights was listening to Tony Seba, Silicon Valley entrepreneur and Stanford University lecturer, making far-reaching forecasts about electric transportation, autonomous vehicles, and solar power. The statements were “outside the box” enough to be humorously mentioned by panelists during later presentations. One interesting point was seeing photos of a street in New York City in 1900 and then in 1913 – with one car featured in 1900 and the street filled with them 13 years later. That’s what is meant by “disruptive technology,” and Seba thinks Tesla Motors and the “gigafactory” are leading the way in this century. By 2030, Seba thinks that all mainstream cars will be electric and internal combustion engines will be obsolete; he based that radical assumption on a model analyzing the technology’s growth rates in the market. Another good one: it wasn’t Henry Ford who invented the modern automobile industry. Seba thinks a key enabler was General Motors and DuPont offering the very first car loans so that average income people could own their very first cars.
NAFA’s Sustainable Fleet Standard Program may be rolled out for fleets in January 2015 or soon thereafter, according to Flansburg. NAFA and CALSTART have been working with 14 fleets on developing the measures for the certification program. Participating fleets will be asked to adopt standards based on core metrics (air quality, fuel efficiency, fuel usage, and emissions reductions) and supporting metrics (fleet plan, baseline fuel use, vehicle deployment, and vehicle operations). For measuring the data, CALSTART is utilizing metrics from the US Environmental Protection Agency, US Department of Energy, and the California Air Resources Board. Fleets will be advised to establish a baseline for measurable data with goals of reducing emissions from that point. One fleet might set 2013 emissions and fuel consumption as the starting point for meeting a certain percentage point in emissions reductions for the next few years. There’s no one alternative fuel or technology being recommended; fleets might hit their targets by reducing the numbers of vehicles in the fleet, converting over to natural gas vehicles, increasing driver efficiency, or other methods.
Mike Britt, international fleet director at UPS, spoke during a case study panel on the delivery company being a test lab for nearly every type of alternative fuel and technology – CNG, LNG, hydraulic hybrid, propane, biomethane, electric, and hybrid electric. For the 100,000 vehicle fleet, 5% of them are targeted to be alternative fuel by the end of 2015 and 8% by the end of 2016; he thinks the vehicles will have driven one billion miles on alternative fuels by the end of 2017. During that panel, Michael Brylawski, CEO at Vision Fleet, described the challenges of getting fleets to consider electric vehicles (EVs). The company is working with fleets on improving their usage of EVs. For example, Chevrolet Volts used in fleets are only being plugged in to 30% of their potential. Vision Fleet is working with them on upping it to 50%. He says the company will be making a very big EV deployment announcement in about a month from now.
It was very good to actually talk face-to-face with a few folks I’ve been on conference calls with and have exchanged emails with. They see AltCar Expo as an important conference to attend, but the decision is getting trickier than it used to be. As one automaker executive said, the challenge is deciding on which conference to attend. AltCar Expo has spun off two other conferences (Dallas and the bay area) and seems to have fueled a number of copy cats around the country tied to car shows, green conferences, etc. Companies have limited budgets for travel and time spent at events.
Driving the Mercedes-Benz B-Class Electric Drive. While Mercedes-Benz would argue with me placing its B-Class in other another vehicle category, I would say that it’s the very first ever electric crossover, or SUV, to go on the market. I thought it was going to be the Tesla Model X, which is rolling out next year. It was also interesting to drive the B-Class F-Cell; about 70 of them are coming off lease and are available as certified pre-owned vehicles.
Mike Calise, senior director, electric vehicle solutions, partner business at Schneider Electric, shared his “its cooler than” marketing method while introducing speaker Tony Seba. He thinks owning a BMW i3 will be cooler than owning a BMW 7 Series luxury car. Early adopters like to make a statement in their purchases.
Southern California Gas Company showed the 2015 bi-fuel CNG Chevrolet Impala in the exhibit tent. The bi-fuel Impala will go on sale late this year with a starting price of $38,210; it’s the first manufacturer-produced bi-fuel sedan to come on the North American market.

“Hands off the Steering Wheel” white paper on driverless cars launched

Driverless cars – also known as self-driving cars and autonomous vehicles – have recently become a heated topic in the US. In the wake of Google’s launch of a test project featuring its own self-driving pods, debate has gone viral on the internet. There’s fear of privacy being violated, hackers taking over control of the car, and loss of personal freedom behind the wheel. On the other side, there’s been much enthusiasm for the technology solving huge problems coming from car crashes and worsening traffic congestion and gridlock.

The polarized debate calls up two images – computerized artificial intelligence system HAL 9000 becoming an antagonist murderously attempting to take control of the spaceship in “2001: A Space Odyssey;” and there’s KITT, a black Pontiac Firebird Trans Am that safely transports do-good action hero Michael Knight in “Knight Rider.” A new white paper on the subject, “Hands off the Steering Wheel – The state of autonomous vehicle government policies, testing projects – and when these vehicles will likely make it to roads,” explores these polarizing issues and what to expect in coming years.

Since Google’s announcement in May of this year, there’s been a wave of debate and analysis over this ground-breaking technology and when it’s likely to show up in large numbers on our roads. Beyond Google, Nissan and other car and truck makers are making bold statements about it, and studies have been released this summer sharing perspectives from consumers and transportation and technology experts. Highlights of this white paper include details on states that have adopted autonomous vehicle testing programs and policies, along with where it stands in the US government and other nations; and the role Google has played in self-driving cars being tested in states, and the company potentially entering the automotive business with its own car. General Motors has played a key role in the history of autonomous vehicles dating back to its 1956 short movie, “Key to the Future.” Technology suppliers like Cisco and Continental are also playing an important role in developing these autonomous vehicle systems.

“Hands off the Steering Wheel” also presents the latest in academic, engineering, and policy studies on the subject matter from organizations including IEEE, SAE, and Navigant Research. Public opinion trends are explored that will likely influence autonomous vehicle resistance and support in the near future.

The white paper was written by Jon LeSage, editor and publisher of Green Auto Market, and media consultant at LeSage Consulting. The consulting practice creates content, marketing communications, and market intelligence in clean transportation, advanced and autonomous vehicles, and urban mobility. Green Auto Market delves into these issues on a weekly basis.

“Hands off the Steering Wheel” digs deep into the subject matter that readers are very passionate and opinionated about – and need to stay current and well informed on where it all stands. While the characters of HAL 9000 and KITT come from science fiction, the topic of self-driving, autonomous vehicles has lately been stirring more passionate comments on social media, blogs, and editorial think pieces than anything else seen for years in the automotive and transportation space. Click here to read more about the white paper.

“Hands off the Steering Wheel” white paper on driverless cars coming out this week

Driverless cars – also known as self-driving cars and autonomous vehicles – have recently become a heated topic in the US. In the wake of Google’s launch of a test project featuring its own self-driving pods, debate has gone viral on the internet. There’s fear of privacy being violated, hackers taking over control of the car, and loss of personal freedom behind the wheel. On the other side, there’s been much enthusiasm for the technology solving huge problems coming from car crashes and worsening traffic congestion and gridlock. A new white paper on the subject, “Hands off the Steering Wheel –The state of autonomous vehicle government policies, testing projects – and when these vehicles will likely make it to roads,” explores these polarizing issues and what to expect in coming years.

The white paper was written by Jon LeSage, editor and publisher of Green Auto Market, and media consultant at LeSage Consulting. Since Google’s announcement in May of this year, there’s been a wave of debate and analysis over this ground-breaking technology and when it’s likely to show up in large numbers on our roads. Beyond Google, Nissan and other car and truck makers are making bold statements about it, and studies have been released this summer sharing perspectives from consumers and transportation and technology experts. Highlights of this white paper include details on states that have adopted autonomous vehicle testing programs and policies, along with where it stands in the US government and other nations; and the role Google has played in self-driving cars being tested in states, and the company potentially entering the automotive business with its own car. General Motors has played a key role in the history of autonomous vehicles dating back to its 1956 short movie, “Key to the Future.” Technology suppliers like Cisco and Continental are also playing an important role in developing these autonomous vehicle systems.

The topic of self-driving, autonomous vehicles has lately been stirring more passionate comments on social media, blogs, and editorial think pieces than anything else seen for years in the automotive and transportation space. The white paper will be released on Thursday of this week, and an announcement will go out to Green Auto Market readers.

Facing perplexed looks on what LeSage Consulting actually has to offer

While attending Plug-In 2014 Conference last week in San Jose, I learned something beyond the state of the charging infrastructure: how people perceive what I do. That usually came across as a perplexed look on a person’s face – during an interview, seated for lunch, or during a conversation while standing outside a seminar room. As I left San Jose McEnery Convention Center, I had the same question. What is it that LeSage Consulting offers?

I think some of the confusion deals with a perception gap between me playing a press/media role and a consulting role. In the past few years, people have known me through doing video interviews with Automotive Digest, phone interviews, sitting in on stakeholder conference calls, or chatting at a conference – while wearing my media badge. Several people congratulated me earlier this year after starting the consulting practice, and could see the logic behind it – industry expertise, market analysis, and the ability to pull it all together in content such as this weekly newsletter. For some of us, there is a crossover between the research and editorial sides. I spent a few years in market research/intel and have met a number of people who’ve been in media and now work in market research and analytics. Jobs have been changing for many of us in recent years. I think it’s my duty to keep Green Auto Market accurate and thorough – but it does come from my perspective on what’s taking place and worth paying attention to. That’s one of the more rewarding trends in the internet age for writers like me.

Since launching LeSage Consulting in January of this year, the game has changed for me. I’ve learned much more about where companies and organizations are heading in the next few years, and how my skillset and resources are perceived. I understand that for key stakeholders in automotive and transportation, it’s about much more than deciding what alternative fuel vehicle to build or buy. The landscape will be changing radically in the next 20 years, driven by growing concern over traffic congestion, emissions, safety, and what types of jobs will be available as the technology changes.

Clean transportation involves electric vehicles, hybrids, fuel cell, and other alternative fuel vehicles, and the charging and fueling infrastructure that drives it. There’s also the question of producing fuel-efficient vehicles that will meet federal mandates; and building them in environmentally sustainable factories. Advanced vehicle technology is the baseline, and is leading toward autonomous vehicles in the not-too-distant future. The theme of urban mobility is also another deciding factor, which several automakers are preparing for, in the context of carsharing and ridesharing, parking, and other aspects of making ground transportation work in a fast-changing, crowded world.

When I returned from Plug-In 2014, I revised my mission statement and service offering descriptions to get more clear about all of it, and to articulate that to colleagues. Here’s the latest…..

Mission Statement: LeSage Consulting creates content, marketing communications, and market intelligence serving stakeholders in clean transportation, advanced and autonomous vehicles, and urban mobility. Content channels include the Green Auto Market weekly e-newsletter and through an alliance with Automotive Digest.

How it works:

Content creation:

Feature articles
Newsletters
Websites and blogs
Webinars and speaking engagements
Video and audio
Green Auto Market and Green Auto Market Extended Edition
Information products including white papers, reports, and e-books

Marketing communications:

Promotional content such as coverage of company news, product launches, and special events
Social media placement
Multiple content channels including articles, newsletters, press releases, video, audio, and webinars
Direct marketing through postal and email
Public information and marketing campaigns
Green Auto Market and Extended Edition sponsorships and event promotions

Market intelligence:

Surveys
In-depth interviews with stakeholders
Analytical reports focusing on emerging trends, vehicle acquisitions, technology innovations, legislative and regulatory environment, and global markets
Consulting and research services to clients with sustainability targets
Industry metrics including hybrid and EV sales; alternative fuel prices; stock market performance for companies in clean transportation; US charging and fueling stations; and green vehicle specifications and incentives.

Thanks very much for the questions and perplexed looks. I realized that it had to start with me getting clear on my purpose. Some of the main reasons I chose clean, advanced transportation as my main focus in recent years has been passion for the topic; seeing its integration with environmental and economic issues; and facing big changes in the media landscape. I’ve truly enjoyed connecting with several of you during conversations on these topics. That’s driven me in starting and building LeSage Consulting – supporting people who are passionate and committed to their mission statements in clean, advanced transportation.

Bill Ford shares ideas on the transformation of automakers into personal-mobility companies

“With a growing global population and greater prosperity, the number of vehicles on the road could exceed two billion by midcentury. Combine this with a continuing population shift toward cities, with a projected 54% of the global population in cities by 2050, and it becomes clear that our current transportation model is not sustainable. Our infrastructure cannot support such a large volume of vehicles without creating massive congestion that would have serious consequences for our environment, health, economic progress and quality of life.” — Bill Ford, Executive Chairman, Ford Motor Co.

Bill Ford’s comments, which you’ve just read, were featured recently in The Wall Street Journal’s 125^th anniversary issue where leaders were asked to predict what’s coming up. Ford is in a unique position in the auto industry – being the great-grandson of Henry Ford, who “redefined mobility for average people,” along with articulating bold, forward-thinking ideas on where automakers need to go in the next 20 years. Bill Ford understands the inner working and challenges faced by global automakers in moving forward, along with the market dynamics that will likely cause automakers to transform their identities.

Ford Motor Co. has been on the front lines with these issues – whether that be through having to clean up another miles-per-gallon overstatement, or producing lightweight aluminum-body pickup trucks and selling more hybrids and plug-in hybrids. Bill Ford sees the landscape changing overall for the global auto industry in addressing these potential solutions………

Space-efficient vehicles that run on gasoline or alternative energy sources.
Beyond the energy fueling the vehicles, Ford says that using materials and manufacturing processes committed to sustainability are very important. Aluminum is a good example, as is carbon fiber, in approaching the life-cycle supply chain from a new perspective.
Rethinking the role of vehicles in transportation – making them “smarter and more integrated into the overall transportation system.” OEMs will no longer be just car and truck makers, but will redefine themselves as “personal-mobility companies.”
Cars will need to be able to interact with each other in a city’s infrastructure, networking with other transportation modes like trains, buses, and bikes.
Ridesharing and carsharing companies like Lyft, Uber, and Zipcar symbolize a major shift in thinking – from individual ownership to transportation alternatives.
Bill Ford is a believer in connectivity – with “wireless communication, infotainment systems and limited functions for automated driving and parking” being of much importance.
Autonomous driving is becoming possible, and is already starting to show up in technology features making cars safer and easier to drive. Beyond completely driverless cars, Ford says that some entrepreneurs are looking into the feasibility of flying cars.
The auto industry has entered a new phase in its history. “The next 20 years will see a radical transformation of our industry, and will present many new ways of ensuring that my great-grandfather’s dream of opening the highways for all mankind will remain alive and well in the 21st century and beyond,” Ford wrote.