What to watch for in 2020, Changes in GAM email distribution list

Here are 10 trends and developments that are bound to have a big impact on clean transportation and other sectors — including the presidential election, European emissions rules, and what’s next for car sharing and autonomous vehicles.

1. No continuation of federal EV tax credit
The federal tax credit for purchasers of electric vehicles is ending for automakers selling the highest volumes and hitting their caps on allowable sales — and it appears that won’t be extended. The cap is at 200,000 units sold by brand of battery electric vehicles with a $7,500 tax credit. Tesla and General Motors have already passed that mark, and just had their pleas for extension ignored by the Trump administration and Congress in the new federal budget. Nissan will be next in line, followed by Ford and BMW. Automakers and EV advocates will need to turn to state incentives. The Top five sales states in EV sales during 2018 — California (about 45 percent of total), New York, Washington, Florida, and Texas — have their own state incentives that will have to be tapped into more.

2. Trump campaign clear about environmental and energy issues
The Trump administration continues to campaign for 2020 re-election, regardless of the president’s impeachment. The odds are that the US Senate, with its Republican majority, will not vote to remove Donald Trump from office — making him the third US president after Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton to be impeached by the House but failing to reach the two thirds (67 votes) needed to be removed from office. Trump says he’s ready to continue on as president, and the Democrats are continuing to wend their way through candidates. For now, Joe Biden is the leading candidate, according to polls taken of regular voters.

As for the policies, Democratic candidates aren’t mentioning specific issues like the EV tax credit or incentives for fleets to acquire alternative fuel vehicles. As for taxing carbon emissions to get businesses to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Julian Castro, John Delaney, and Andrew Yang, support it. On extending a cap-and-trade program such as the one started years ago in California, only Tom Steyer is endorsing it for now. As for the Trump campaign, you can review the campaign website and see that the administration will continue it’s crusade to gut environmental regulations, softening fuel economy and emissions rules, and denying climate change exists — statements that can be validated and detailed by environmental groups. Here are a few of the Trump 2020 campaign website statements………

“President Trump and his administration acted aggressively to increase exports of energy resources to the global market. This allowed financing for coal and fossil energy projects………. President Trump has approved the infrastructure and provided the resources needed to unleash oil and gas production in the US……… The Trump administration reversed President Obama’s moratorium on new leases for oil and gas development on federal lands………. President Trump rescinded President Obama’s costly Clean Power Plan and instead has proposed the Affordable Clean Energy Rule……… The EPA has rescinded President Obama’s methane emissions rule that would cost American energy developers an estimated $530 million annually……… 
The EPA is reviewing a rule that if rescinded would relax costly fuel standards and save $340 billion in regulatory costs……… President Trump announced his intent to withdraw the US from the unfair Paris Climate Agreement.”

3. Long-anticipated emission rules starting in Europe
Light-duty vehicle manufacturers will see more stringent emissions standards take effect in Europe in the new year with a phase-in period extending into 2021. Automakers will have to sell a lot more hybrid and electric vehicles in European Union member countries or they’ll pay costly fines, a situation similar to China. Scientists say that about 20 percent of Europe’s carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases come from light-duty vehicles, and heavy-duty trucks add to that emissions share even more. Shareholders worry that profit will be hurt as these green cars can’t be sold at higher prices than conventional gasoline and diesel models, which means they won’t be profitable until battery costs come down. The regulations will eventually cover heavy-duty trucks, albeit with a longer timeline. In Europe, commercial trucks will have to emit 30% less greenhouse gases by 2030. The US will have to continue to wait and see how the Trump administration is ruling on light-duty vehicles and later on medium- and heavy-duty vehicles — though it certainly will be at a less strict standard.

4. Going from NAFTA to USMCA
The House of Representatives voted Dec. 19 in favor of a new trade deal replacing NAFTA. The new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) was passed by an overwhelming bipartisan vote of 385 to 41, with a large majority of Democrats approving the deal — a day after House Democrats voted to impeach the president. The Senate plans to ratify USMCA next year, potentially after it holds a January trial on whether to remove Trump from office. According to the new USMCA rules, 75 percent of car or auto parts need to have originated in a country partnership. Under NAFTA’s rules, the floor was 62.5 percent. Additionally, 70 percent of a car’s steel and aluminum purchases must be made in North America.

The new rules also require that a certain percentage of vehicles imported duty-free must be made in a place where employees make an average of $16 per hour. But the critical question remains to be seen — if the new agreement will force enough changes to shift production of vehicles from Mexico to the US. While the U.S would likely replace some of its duty-free imports with its own production, it will still need to rely on more expensive imports. It will cost automakers nearly $3 billion over the next ten years, according to budget projections made by the Congressional Budget Office. And it won’t face the reality of globalization of automotive manufacturing and distribution, and that new vehicles sold in the US already display a mix of foreign-made parts and components. As for now, General Motors and Ford support the new USMCA rules, as does the American Automotive Policy Council, which lobbies for Ford, GM and Fiat Chrysler. Labor unions had been pushing for the bill, too, to protect domestic workers.

5. Tesla bucking downward sales slump in China
While new vehicle sales in China — including electric vehicles — continued to see a downward slide in November, Tesla broke that cycle with a 14-fold gain in new-vehicle registrations. Registrations of Tesla vehicles climbed to a five-month high of 5,597 in November, compared with 393 vehicles sold a year earlier. The China-built Model 3s are set to start at about $50,000, slightly cheaper than imported versions. Tesla thinks it can lower that price by 20 percent or more next year as it starts using local components and parts, reducing costs. There’s much at stake for Tesla as China accounts for about half of the world’s electric-vehicle sales — and with the company seeing the country becoming its largest global market after the US. The electric carmaker needs to see another burgeoning market as EV tax incentives will be going away soon in the US for Tesla and other makers.

6. New EVs that are gaining the most interest
In recent weeks following the LA Auto Show and announcements on 2020 product offerings, a few electric vehicle models have been getting much of the attention. One interesting question is will Tesla’s new Cybertruck will cannibalize sales of the upcoming Tesla Model Y crossover SUV………. Electric truck maker Rivian has raised $1.3 billion for the R1T pickup in a new financing round led by T. Rowe Price. Prior investors including Amazon, Ford, and BlackRock participated in the deal. Amazon, of course, will be buying a lot of the trucks………… Ford’s Mustang Mach-E electric SUV was very hot at the LA Auto Show. It will start arriving in late 2020, and Ford will only make 50,000 units globally in the first model year……….. The 2022 Fisker Ocean crossover SUV can be secured with a $250 down payment. It will offer 250 to 300 miles of range and will feature recycled materials from the ocean……… Volvo and its Polestar subsidiary will only be sending out its Polestar 2 electric car to select dealers in the network. It’s so popular that dealers in Illinois are fighting the Polestar Automotive USA’s plans to limit the dealer distributions…………. Watch for battery- and hydrogen-powered commercial trucks and buses to make a splash in 2020.

7. The latest in autonomous vehicle regulations
Autonomous, light-duty trucks can now be used for commercial purposes on public roads in California. The state’s Department of Motor Vehicles announced the proposal this month, which outlines a permitting process for companies wishing to test or deploy driverless trucks for commercial use. The new rule only applies to autonomous vehicles weighing less than 10,001 pounds — Class 1 and 2 trucks that would include minivans, pickup trucks, utility vans, and step vans. This would be ideal for delivery companies………. At the moment, all autonomous vehicles undergoing testing must have a few controls in place, those being steering wheels and backup drivers. General Motors wants to roll out a small fleet of autonomous vehicles that don’t have these two things. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says it will have a decision soon on the automaker’s request.

8. Will female CEOs carry over to automakers?
Enterprise Holdings announced earlier this month chief operating officer Chrissy Taylor would take on the role of chief executive in a planned succession. Taylor, the granddaughter of company founder Jack Taylor, will take the wheel on January 1. She’ll replace Pam Nicholson, the No. 23 person on the Fortune Most Powerful Women in business list who had served as CEO of the car rental giant since 2013. They join Hertz president and CEO Kathryn Marinello, making for two of the three US car rental conglomerate chiefs. In the auto industry — US and global — General Motors CEO Mary Barra is the only woman to run one of these companies. For now, it’s still a boys club — although women make up a third of the technology team on Ford’s Mach-E.

9. Car-sharing continues to be a tough business
Daimler and BMW have called it quits on Share Now, its joint car-sharing unit. A low adoption rate was citied. Share Now will exit the North American market and cease operations in London, Brussels and Florence, at the end of February. Another sad story also came this month, that BlueIndy will cease operations four years after the electric-car-sharing program arrived in Indianapolis. Members of the car-sharing network were told by email that financial reasons were behind the closure. The collaboration with the City of Indianapolis will end on May 21, 2020. BlueIndy said in a news release that 11,000 members took about 180,000 rides over the course of four years, but “Indianapolis drivers have been slow to adopt alternative transportation options and car ownership remains extremely high.”

10. Impact of sulfur emission rules on fuel prices
With the International Maritime Organization (IMO) ready to release its regulation on sulfur emissions on January 1, concerns are being raised over the impact on fuel prices and the economics of transportation. The ocean shipping industry accounts for 90 percent of global trade, and the IMO’s international mandate to reduce “bunker fuel” sulfur content in marine fuel oil from 3.5 percent to 0.5 percent is expected to have a major impact. That will go for maritime shipping and trucking.

According to an IMO analysis at Wood Mackenzie, the global refining system is not equipped to produce the volumes of low sulfur fuel needed to power the world’s shipping industry by the time the regulation goes into effect. While there are existing stockpiles of low sulfur fuel available, the consulting firm expects that existing supply will likely not be enough to buffer global reserves until supply eventually catches up with demand. That consumption rate was about 3.5 million barrels a day from the global maritime sector in 2018. The shipping industry can be turning to diesel products instead of bunker fuel as the supply runs out and bunker fuel goes up in price. Higher prices are expected to be carried over to the trucking industry and other segments. That increased demand would bring higher diesel prices globally, having a profound impact on the trucking industry — especially in the US where trucking provides the lion’s share of freight transportation from these ships to buyers.

Changes at GAM reader subscriber list
Green Auto Market has stopped working with its distribution partner, and the subscriber box will be changing. Until that’s done, new subscribers or those with changing email addresses will need to contact the editor at jlesage378@gmail.com to be placed on the new email distribution list.

Feds in talks with California on fuel economy rules, On-demand mobility a very tough business to succeed in

Feds changing fuel economy rules:  Federal efforts to coordinate fuel economy
standards between its departments and with the state of California will be clarified in weeks ahead. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Acting Administrator Heidi King said Tuesday at the Detroit auto show that a proposal would be released on March 30 with new fuel economy standards for light duty vehicles. President Donald Trump last year reinstated a review of NHTSA and Environmental Protection Agency rules for fuel economy and emissions to cover model years 2022 through 2025, which was part of his campaign to cut federal regulations. News of more talks between California and the Trump administration also came out this week. California Air Resources Board will be meeting in Washington this month with federal officials in an effort to reach agreement on phase two revisions that could sort out differences and avoid legal battles between automakers, the White House, and California.

Infiniti electrifying most of its upcoming cars:  Infiniti is joining Volvo and other near-luxury and luxury brands by electrifying its fleet by 2021 (with the exception of a few large SUVs). For these models, the company isn’t specifying whether it will include hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and batter electric vehicles in the electrified lineup. It will include BEVs that will have at least 200 miles of range, according to Infiniti and Nissan CEO Hiroto Saikawa. That range would be slightly farther than the new Leaf can go from parent company Nissan. “We are trying to position Infiniti as the premier electrified brand” as part of the five-year plan that will extend through 2022, he said.

On-demand mobility a very tough business to succeed in:  Another sad tale is being told in the less-than-a-decade old business of on-demand mobility. See Jane Go, a ride-hailing app for women riders transported by women drivers, closed its shutters on Tuesday, January 9.

“As a young start-up, we have been unable to secure the necessary capital funding to continue our operations,” wrote CEO Cassandra Miller in a note posted on Facebook. “I know discontinuing our service will be a significant loss for many that we serve.”

The service was created by Laguna Niguel, Calif., residents Savannah Jordan and her father, William Jordan, in 2016 to offer women a safer alternative in the ride-hailing market.

Just as Facebook has inspired hundreds of social networking startups targeted to special interests, mobility services are seeing a wave of specialized services emerge. You can have your kids picked up and taken home after their music lesson. Someone else can do all your grocery shopping that will be delivered to your front door or kitchen. Meals can be delivered quickly and cheaply to you at home, work, or a social gathering. Then there’s always the Uber and Lyft model of having convenient, quick, affordable rides – taking away the hassles of being stuck behind the wheel in traffic and having to find a parking space.

Ride-hailing giant Uber has been the Facebook of mobility, following its beta launch in 2010 and San Francisco rides starting up in 2011. The past year has been a near-death experience for Uber, with newly hired CEO Dara Khosrowshahi now expected to revive the company.

Navigant Research recently published an analysis piece comparing the challenge Netflix faces competing with Disney to what companies like Uber and Lyft face compared to global automakers. Netflix is burning through a great deal of cash in creating its own catalogue of films and TV series to compete. Uber faces competition from companies like General Motors, Volkswagen, Daimler, and Ford, which are starting up and acquiring their own mobility service business units.

Green Auto Market Extended Edition subscribers this week can view a study on where 10 leading mobility companies stand with investors in the number of funding rounds and total funding amount raised so far. Companies reviewed include Airbnb, Didi Chuxing, DoorDash, Gett, GrubHub, HopSkipDrive, Instacart, Lyft, Postmates, and Uber.

What’s next for fuel economy and emissions mandates: Who’s fighting the fight

President Donald Trump’s statement on Wednesday reopened the fuel economy and emissions midterm review through the next year, possibly up to the original deadline of April 2018. It’s expected that the Trump administration will weaken the mandate, which when set in 2012, was to double average fleetwide fuel economy to 54.5 mpg by 2025. That mandate was actually based on real-world window sticker average mpg in the high-30s when factoring in automakers’ ability to trade credits and other factors that go into the corporate average fuel economy numbers. The midterm review was included in the 2012 negotiations, with automakers pushing to take a look at how the 2022-25 phase-two period would be going.

The Obama administration and Environmental Protection Agency’s decision in January to finalize the rules before Trump took office intensified the conflict. Automakers had begun lobbying Trump right after he won the election to extend the review and soften the mandate; and organizations that had advocated for the fuel economy standard and its enforcement issued statements supporting the Obama administration’s move.

Here’s a look at the roles that several parties to the matter are expected to play:

Automakers: Ford, General Motors, Toyota, and Volkswagen have led the argument that the numbers aren’t there. Low gasoline prices have supported record demand for SUVs, crossovers, and pickups and dragged on demand for hybrids and small, fuel-efficient vehicles. Plug-in electrified vehicle sales have grown to about 1% of the total market, but the growth rate over the past year isn’t helping on the fuel economy front. In Michigan last week, Trump met with the CEOs of GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, and top U.S. executives from Toyota, Nissan, Daimler, others.

Mitch Bainwol, chief executive of the Auto Alliance, which represents 12 major automakers, including GM, Ford and Toyota, applauded the Trump administration’s decision last week. “We applaud the Administration’s decision to reinstate the data-driven review of the 2022-2025 standards. By restarting this review, analysis rather than politics will produce a final decision consistent with the process we all agreed to under ‘One National Program’ for GHG and fuel economy standards,” Bainwol said.

He said the industry will work with the EPA, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and the California Air Resources Board “in carefully determining how we can improve mileage and reduce carbon emissions while preserving vehicle safety, auto jobs and affordable new cars and trucks.”

Truckmakers:  In August, the EPA issued phase-two standards to reduce greenhouse gas emissions coming from commercial trucks, buses, and vans, in three phases by 2027. The regulation is intended to cut carbon emissions by about 25% compared to the current rules. The trucking industry has not asked the Trump administration to reverse those rules, according to Sean McNally, spokesman for the American Trucking Associations.

Legislators: As expected, this decision continues to be more of a Republicans vs. Democrats debate. Republicans support the Trump administration’s decision, and like his argument on supporting American automakers grow their companies and create more jobs here. “We’re going to work on the CAFE standards so you can make cars in America again,” Trump said. “We’re gonna help the companies and they’re gonna help you.”

U.S. Senator Edward Markey (D.-Mass.) has been a vocal critic of the move. The action will lead to needless uncertainly for the auto industry, and consumers will end up having to pay more at the fuel pump, he said. He and other Democratic senators criticized the EPA emissions review before it had been issued. Senator Jeff Merkley said that its bad for the economy, environment and middle class families.

Consumer groups: In late February, Consumers Union (which publishes Consumer Reports) and the Consumer Federation of America sent a letter to Trump asking the administration to maintain the strong fuel economy standards – to help to lower fuel costs for middle class families across the country, support job creation and innovation, and improve air quality. Consumers Union’s research shows that consumers will have net savings of $3,200 per car and $4,800 per truck, over the life of a vehicle that meet the 2025 standards, even at today’s low gas prices. If gas prices rise, which two organizations expect they will, the savings would be significantly higher. Consumers will have more money to spend in other parts of the economy.

The two consumer organizations also make the case that automakers are already ahead of the standards through developing innovative, fuel-efficient technologies. “Thanks to fuel economy standards, the automakers have invested in innovative technologies to improve fuel economy, and their efforts have paid off. Automakers have not only met today’s fuel economy standards, but they have exceeded the standards in many cases, all while enjoying record profits and record sales,” the letter said.

Environmental groups:  These groups see the announcement as part of a larger move by the Trump administration to overturn the Obama administration’s policies on climate change, and disregard for long-term air pollution standards like the Clean Air Act. Environmentalists have vowed to sue if the Trump administration weakens the rules, which they expect to happen.

Natural Resources Defense Council thinks it makes no sense, since the mileage standards would save consumers money at the gas pump, make the U.S. less dependent on oil, reduce carbon pollution, and advance technology innovation. It was also one of the ways GM was able to go from bankruptcy and return to financial strength.

The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy said that the Trump administration’s move was a bad one. Best known for its “Greenest and Meanest” awards, the organization usually stays out of public policy. This time, the ACEEE released findings from its study: it would reduce fuel consumption more than two million barrels of oil by day by 2025; eliminate six billion tons of greenhouse gas emissions over the lifetimes of vehicles of model years 2012-2025; and would save consumers over $1 trillion at the gas pump.

California:  Trump didn’t mention California’s role in the future of the national standards. He won’t seek to revoke California’s clean car rules and zero emission vehicle mandate, according to a White House official. However, the official didn’t rule out the administration seeking to withdraw California’s authority on the matter in the future. Nine states and the District of Columbia have adopted its zero-emissions vehicle mandate, which uses a credit system that will require automakers to sell about 1.5 million passenger by 2025. These include battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell vehicles.

Governor Jerry Grown and California Air Resources Board chair Mary Nichols have made strong statements that California will move forward on ZEV mandates regardless of what the federal government decides to do. They are taking things seriously, though. The state has hired former Attorney General Eric Holder in anticipation of legal challenges, according to the Sacramento Bee.

Market dynamics:  Automakers and advocates of clean vehicles have for years been debating the structure behind the federal mandates. Under the rules, automakers have to hit fuel economy standards for manufacturing fuel efficient vehicles, but will enough of them be sold to meet the fuel economy and emissions targets?

That debate brings up the commonly cited conundrum of which economic side has to lead the way: supply or demand? It could bring up the “If you build it, he will come” line to call in Shoeless Joe Jackson during the Field of Dreams movie. Or, what comes first, the chicken or the egg? Or, putting the cart before the horse.

On the consumer side, the U.S. has seen hybrid sales soften and stagnate, but PEV sales increase at a faster pace than hybrids did 15 years ago. That’s been driven by passionate Tesla fans, PEV advocates well represented by groups like Plug In America, and consumers who like to lead the way as one of the first to adopt new technologies, and others who like the deals they’re getting through incentives and fuel savings.

Fleets will be playing an increasing important part of the PEV sales drive. Beyond a few major fleets like UPS, most had taken a very hesitant approach to electrified cars and trucks. That will be getting a major boost by the campaign taken on by 30 U.S. cities, led by Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, to get good deals from automakers. They have about $10 billion in acquisition funds for about 114,000 PEVs for their city fleets. These could go to vehicles like police patrol cars, street sweepers, trash trucks, and other applications. Buying that many PEVs would increase the segments U.S. sales by about 72%.

Market forecasters see PEV and hybrid sales staying at about this level for now. However, that’s expected to increase dramatically in the near future, with one noted analyst expecting to see PEVs and hybrids making up 10% to 15% of total U.S. sales in the next 10 years. State incentives and federal tax credits play into it, along with extended range, improved performance PEVs coming to market. Ford said it will bring an all-electric SUV with 300-miles of range to market by 2020, GM started doing well selling the 238-mile range Chevy Bolt; Nissan has said a new generation Leaf with 200 mile range will be rolled out; and in January Tesla started making batteries at its Gigafactory for the Model 3 to roll out later this year.

China:  That country has been another important market for global automakers to consider for its PEV sales strategy. The numbers have been huge in recent years as China beat out the U.S. as the leading global PEV market. Government policies are starting to change, which appear to be softening that lead. Sales of “new energy vehicles,” the term China uses to refer to battery-electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids and fuel-cell cars, dropped 74% in January from a year earlier to 5,682 units, according to China’s auto association. The government had cut subsidies more than a fight at the beginning of the year. Rules may be revised that had mandated automakers to produce and sell certain volumes of PEVs in the market.