alternative fuel vehicles Archives

Big Picture: Tesla becoming a top job creator, and Gigafactories could lead to hundreds of plant openings

With Toyota Motor Corp. announcing its plan to shut down at its US headquarters in Torrance, Calif., and then moving to Texas by 2017, Tesla Motors will become the largest auto industry employer in California. Tesla now employs more than 6,000 people in the state, mainly at its production plant in Fremont. Tesla will add at least 500 more workers by year’s end in California, according to a company spokesman……. Tesla CEO Elon Musk received more media attention last week on where “gigafactories” are headed. Speaking at the World Energy Innovation Forum, Musk said the need for lower-cost batteries for autos and power storage will bring hundreds of these advanced lithium battery plants like the one Tesla is planning with fellow investors. Musk thinks cost will be reduced for these lithium-ion cells initially by 30%, but that will only get better. In other news, Tesla is getting a perhaps temporary break in the state of Missouri in the franchised dealers vs. Tesla online sales battle. Legislators have put a bill on hold until its reintroduced next year.

And in other clean transportation news…….

Japanese automakers have formed a consortium similar to what’s been implemented in Europe – taking a big step forward in fuel-efficient powertrains. Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Daihatsu, Suzuki, and Fuji Heavy Industries (which makes Subaru vehicles) have pooled resources to jointly produce gasoline and diesel engines that are 30% more fuel efficient by 2020. It’s taking place through a newly created organization, Research Association of Automotive Internal Combustion Engines. The Japanese government is putting up half the budget, which combined totals out to 1 billion yen ($9.9 million).
Check out “Forty One New Models Coming,” an Automotive Digest video featuring AOL Automotive’s Steve Sturm, at the thinkLA, Automotive Breakfast 2014. Sturm thinks that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles rolling out in the next year will have a role to play in new vehicle sales.
Fisker Automotive will be assembling its cars in the US and maybe eventually in China, said Lu Guanqiu, chairman and founder of Fisker’s post-bankruptcy owner, major Chinese auto parts maker Wanxiang Group Corp. The Fisker Karmas out on the roads today were built at an assembly plant in Finland. Lu sounds very serious about building the next wave of Fisker plug-in hybrids. “I’ll put every cent that Wanxiang earns into making electric vehicles,” Lu said. “I’ll burn as much cash as it takes to succeed, or until Wanxiang goes bust.”
Last year’s controversy has subsided over Terry McAuliffe’s GreenTech Automotive company being the subject of a Securities and Exchange Commission for promises made by the electric carmaker while soliciting overseas investors. Its merger with VL Automotive is helping GreenTech Automotive to express optimism about delivery of electric city cars to the Chinese market. McAuliffe, now serving as governor of Virginia, started up GreenTech about five years ago. GreenTech President and CEO Charles Wang last year became embroiled in the governor’s race about the deal making McAuliffe had been part of.
In this day of five million General Motors recalls being announced, 276 Nissan Leafs is a mere pittance. Nissan is recalling 211 vehicles in the US and 65 in Canada to check for a problem with its front structural member assembly. The risk of injury during a crash goes up for these models as the assembly may be missing welds, which affects structural integrity during a crash. Nissan is notifying customers and their dealers to bring in their Leafs for inspection.
Lobbying for higher blends of ethanol at the national and state level is continuing. Legislators in Illinois have heard from a racing celebrity who supports the alternative fuel. NASCAR driver Kenny Wallace. “I’m here to let everyone know not to worry about it,” Wallace said. “I’ve got a lot of knowledge and it’s a clean-burning fuel. It’s good for the environment and it cuts down on emissions.” Wallace has been working with the Illinois Corn Growers Association to advocate blended fuels. Illinois currently provides tax credits for fuel with a 10% ethanol blend; the association wants to see the credit carry over to fuels with a 15% blend.
The 2015 Chevy Spark EV will have an entirely new battery pack. General Motors will bring assembly of the electric Spark’s battery in-house to the Brownstown, Michigan, plant that already builds batteries for the Chevrolet Volt, Opel/Vauxhall Ampera, and Cadillac ELR. The first 1,000-plus batteries were assembled by Compact Power Inc. at a different Michigan plant, then shipped to South Korea for installation in the Spark EV.
AT&T has deployed its 8,000th compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicle; the company is more than half way there to fulfill its 10-year, $565 million commitment to add approximately 15,000 alternative fuel vehicles to its fleet by end of year 2018. The 8,000th CNG vehicle – a 2014 Chevy Express van manufactured in Wentzville, Missouri – was delivered to a work center in St. Louis, Missouri, and will be used to provide entertainment and communications services in the St. Louis metropolitan area.
IHS Automotive sees EV sales performing stronger than early hybrids: IHS Automotive has become the leading market analyst on auto industry trends through its acquisition of Polk and all of Polk’s vehicle registration data. A new report by IHS Automotive says that despite the limitations that electric vehicles (EVs) have faced in its early development and market availability, these models have still sold better than hybrids did in the early years starting in 2001 with the Toyota Prius and Honda Civic and Insight. “Most EV drivers still own their first-generation electric vehicles,” said IHS Automotive analyst Ben Scott. “Furthermore, there have been insufficient product offerings to effectively legitimize the market and show to consumers that EVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) represent the way of the future.” The IHS Automotive study also says that early expectations and perceptions for EVs may been too lofty, which had a negative impact. It’s lead some people to think of early EVs as failures for not meeting their inflated expectations despite these models’ relative sales success in the global market.

Green Auto Market – Extended Edition offers market data and analysis on this new and growing industry

Here’s a summary of an article that was just published in Green Auto Market – Extended Edition………

Reaching more fleets and other stakeholders at clean transportation conferences
No doubt, ACT Expo 2014 was a success – with increased attendance and excellent keynote speakers and workshops. The challenge is reaching more fleets that need a lot more information, hands-on experience, and time with knowledgeable peers who can help them bring the right clean vehicles and fuels to their workplaces. Here are my thoughts on what could help events reach more stakeholders.

I invite you to take a look at another issue of the monthly subscription version of this newsletter – Green Auto Market – Extended Edition. This newsletter offers market data and analysis on this emerging global industry.

Topics/issues covered in Extended Edition include:

Monthly sales numbers for hybrids and electric vehicles.
Stock market performance on green transportation publicly traded companies.
Fuel prices on gasoline and diesel with comparisons to alternative fuels.
Infrastructure: US fueling and charging stations.
Government policies impacting the industry.
Introduction of car and truck offerings in EV, hybrid, fuel cell, natural gas, propane autogas, and other emerging alternative fuels and technologies.
Marketing campaigns that are reaching decision makers in consumer, business, and NPO segments.
Deployment of green vehicles and fueling/charging infrastructure networks.
Capital investments from public and private entities.
Developments in international marketplaces impacting clean transportation.
Smart transportation — including autonomous/driverless vehicles, telematics, carsharing, ridesharing, and connected cars.

It’s $75 per year for a subscription. Got to this page for more information, and the PayPal subscription link.

Consultant’s notebook: Forget Facebook, best deal on alternative fuels

It’s been about two months since I launched LeSage Consulting – thanks very much for the support and feedback. Here are some of my notes on the experience so far……

Social Media Hits and Misses: As internet marketing guru Bob Bly wrote about last week, social media has limited value for B2B marketing – especially Facebook (which somehow produced $7 billion in ad revenue last year). Facebook is great for photo galleries, “friending,” and reading about the fun one of your old high school chums is having standing in line at Starbucks. Everyone has an account on Facebook and, I would suspect, that in the next five years, there will be 10,000 more Facebook-type sites customized to a plethora of groups – special interests, hobbies, geography, politics, spirituality, environmental, business networking, etc. I’m seeing a lot more value in LinkedIn and Twitter. LinkedIn is very good for networking with like-minded professionals (check out my Clean Transportation interest group) and getting people to subscribe to your e-newsletter and take your survey. I’ve been surprised to see how important Twitter has become for business networking and special interest groups. Some companies are announcing new product and service offerings on webinars coordinated with tweets.

Compressed natural gas (CNG) is doing the best in transportation fuel prices; charging and alternative fuel stations are seeing growth and propane is still number two after charging stations (with E85 close behind propane). For those interested in receiving monthly reports on fuel prices, sales figures on hybrids and electric vehicles, and stock market performance of AeroVironment, Clean Energy, Tesla Motors, and others, you can opt for a paid subscription to Green Auto Market Extended Edition. You can also find a free sample copy of it there, too, on this site.

The Value of Time: Consultants need to have specialized expertise in their fields from work experience, education, accomplishments, and professional networking relationships – not to mention thousands of hours out in the trenches finding out what’s really going on out there. As a former consulting colleague (and current significant other) says to me all the time – What’s your time worth? Sending a proposal to a current or prospective client with fees based on project cost, or hourly estimate, or some variation, is one thing. But what about writing a freelance article? You could put in a lot of hours, and do a couple of rewrites, for $500 (or less – thank you, Elance). Perhaps that article goes out to a well-respected mass market publication, or to a very specialized niche publication read by managers in your field. Then, yes that’s worth the time and energy – it’s effective marketing and it doesn’t really cost you anything. But then there are other situations that come up that remind me that some of that time spent is not worth it. For example, I’ve had people contact me recently on LinkedIn for networking and promotion. They got something out of it, but I didn’t seem to – beyond the annoying learning experience of not doing that again.

PERC’s Roy Willis on propane’s major milestone with UPS

UPS, along with Frito-Lay, have become testing grounds for alternative fuel vehicles in delivery fleets. You may have noticed that UPS was given a lot of attention last week for adding 1,000 propane-powered delivery trucks to its US fleet – joining up with electric, hybrid, CNG, LNG, biomethane, and nearly 900 propane-powered trucks in its Canadian fleet, in the corporation’s sustainability initiative. UPS will also initially install 50 propane fueling stations at UPS locations mainly in rural areas in Louisiana and Oklahoma with other states pending. That $70 million vehicle and fueling investment will allow UPS to displace about 3.5 million gallons of conventional gasoline and diesel per year. Propane Education & Research Council (PERC), a non-profit propane technology incubator, is playing a key role in integrating propane autogas and refueling with the UPS fleet. UPS and PERC were able to secure certifications with the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the California Air Resources Board, in alliance with equipment manufacturers. UPS did a test run this past winter in Gainesville, Ga., with 20 propane-powered delivery trucks, and expanded its order with Freightliner Custom Chassis Corp.

“The opportunity to road test new propane vehicles and fueling equipment with one of the most sophisticated fleets in the country is a major milestone for the propane industry,” said Roy Willis, president and CEO of PERC. The UPS deployment of propane vehicles and refueling infrastructure is a smart move and good investment, Willis says – making greater use of clean, efficient energy resource with growing domestic supplies. Willis says that other fleets, such as beverage companies and bakeries, are starting to show a lot more interest in propane – as what UPS does is carefully observed. Fleet managers need to see a business case made that propane-powered vehicles are worth the investment. They know UPS takes logistics very seriously and tests out the technologies and fuels long before adding them to their fleet – such as the test fleet in Georgia.

PERC has been collaborating for several years with Freightliner, CleanFuel USA, and Powertrain Integration to build safe, clean, and efficient propane vehicles. UPS will be using CleanFuel USA’s Liquid Propane Injection (LPI) system in the planned purchase of the propane delivery trucks. CleanFuel USA will also provide several of the fueling stations out of 50 planned across the US. The UPS delivery truck is built on the Freightliner Custom Chassis MT-45 walk-in van with the LPI system, and a 6.0-liter engine by Powertrain Integration.

The school bus market has been adding a lot of propane-powered buses, Willis said. Bluebird sold about 3,600 of these propane school buses last year, and Thomas Built will be introducing a new model soon. PERC is also working on dual-fuel research projects combining diesel and propane. Direct injection of propane is also being tested by PERC with the Southwest Research Institute. Direct injection can bring better horsepower and torque, plus fuel economy improvements. While most propane vehicles have been deployed in medium-duty fleet vehicles, direct injection could be a bridge to bringing propane to more light duty passenger cars like taxis and police cars. It could be an OEM product with warranty coverage at its dealerships and may be announced by the end of the year, Willis said.

The technology is pretty well proven, according to Willis, with propane-powered vehicles widely used in fleets for several years. The fueling infrastructure is growing – such as school bus fleets adding them to maintenance yards and propane retailers bringing them to their local markets at public stations, which have been supported by state grants and incentives. The UPS announcement is probably a tipping point for more fleets to adopt propane in vehicle and fueling technologies.

Taking a deeper look at alternative fuel vehicle sales figures

Take a look at this chart, which WardsAuto published in late February showing something quite rare: detailed sales numbers on every type of alternative fuel vehicle sold in the US over the past five years in the light-duty passenger vehicle market. WardsAuto is getting these numbers from its own internal database of sales figures. I’m not sure what the “Unspecified Gas/Diesel” category means, and WardsAuto has not yet responded to my inquiry about it. However, looking at each of the vehicle categories offers a comprehensive view of market trends…….

Hybrids continue to make up the largest share of US new vehicle sales for alt-fuel vehicles, but “clean diesel” isn’t far behind – 3.2% of total market share for hybrids in 2013 versus 2.85% for diesel. Some would argue that diesel shouldn’t be analyzed at all as an alternative fuel – it still comes entirely from oil; regardless, it is getting considered as an alternative by a few analysts as more Americans are starting to own them for passenger cars for the first time ever in place of gasoline engine vehicles. Strong performance and fuel efficiency are helping German automakers sell them in this market, and US automakers are starting to get into that space.
Electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles made up .64% of new vehicle sales last year – only two thirds of a percent. However, the growth rate since starting plug-in sales in late 2010 is outstripping where hybrid sales, mainly from Toyota and Honda, were performing in their first years in the early 2000s. There are more EVs coming to market this year and beyond, which should help grow their sales numbers – along with pricing coming down and more charging stations being installed around the country.
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle sales are still very small; the Hyundai Tucson Fuel Cell vehicle is going to be on the market by early summer and has a production volume target of 1,000 units through 2015. There will be other models coming on the market through Toyota and Honda next year.
Hybrid sales are nearing 500,000 units per year, jumping up significantly in 2012. Forecasters, including JD Power and Associates, see hybrids growing in sales percentages in the next 10 years. There’s a lot more hybrid vehicle options at dealerships now than about five years ago, and that will continue to grow.
Compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicle numbers are very small with very little available on the retail market – the Honda Civic Natural Gas being about it. The Ford F-150 half-ton that can run on natural gas and propane came on the market last summer, and Chrysler and GM have heavier pickups more suited to commercial usage than passenger. Parent company Fiat Chrysler Automobiles has interest in more CNG-powered vehicles coming to the US, as natural gas has played an important role in Italian transportation since the 1950s.

What Green Auto Market readers are most interested in – and what needs to happen for this industry to move forward

Many thanks to readers who’ve taken the survey this month. Your responses were insightful and very similar to what I’ve learned from having conversations with stakeholders in the industry, reading media coverage, reviewing survey reports, and reading studies by market analysts. Overall, plug-in electric vehicles, hybrids, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and natural gas vehicles (in that order) have the most interest; the charging and fueling infrastructure is right up there, too. It was also rewarding to get feedback on what’s needed in the marketplace for my business, LeSage Consulting,– and to see that it fits in with what stakeholders have been saying to me for a long time about the need out there for effective educational content to address concerns about ownership costs and range anxiety – and if this new industry is making a real difference with environmental issues, governmental policies, and economics.

Educating market segments on the financial side of the question is top priority – acquisition costs and incentives, lifecycle ownership costs, and how it all compares to traditional gasoline ICE vehicles. Availability and accessibility of charging and alternative fueling stations was also high on the list. As for the most important stakeholder groups, consumers finished first, followed by fleets, government agencies, and OEMs (car and truck makers).

There is a lot of interest out there in what’s going on in other industries and technologies and how it will affect automotive and transportation. As for the top five related topics that readers want to stay current on: next generation batteries for electric vehicles and hybrids; global market conditions for alternative fuel vehicles and clean transportation; regulatory, political, and economic issues affecting alternative fuels and vehicles; futuristic advanced technologies used in fuels such as biofuels and biomass, hydrogen, methanol, dimethyl ether (DME), and renewable natural gas (also known as biogas); and how alternative fuels and energies are being used in other industries such as stationary units, air conditioning, power generation, and industrial applications.

So what’s the tipping point for getting green vehicle shoppers to make that purchase decision? What methods are most effective? Number one: vehicle specifications, pricing, and incentive data; Number two: ride and drives; Number three: answers to frequently asked questions; Number four: video interviews and presentations, and Number five: step by step guides making purchase decisions.

Special thanks to survey respondents who added open-end comments, which you can read below. There is fascination with advanced technologies and where vehicles are heading; creating the charging infrastructure that’s needed for electric vehicles to stride forward; and the source of energy – is that electricity really clean that’s fueling your zero emission vehicle? Here are the results from the reader survey……….

What topics are you most interested in reading about in Green Auto Market?

Plug-in electric vehicles
Hybrids
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles
Charging and fueling infrastructures
Natural gas vehicles
Vehicle ownership and operating cost savings
Research and development on advanced fuels and technologies
Government regulations and incentives
Vehicle emissions reductions
Fuel-efficient driving and reducing idle time

What issues do you think need to be addressed to gain more interest and purchase activity from vehicle owners?

Total cost of ownership – green vehicle versus conventional vehicle 79%
Availability and accessibility of charging and alternative fueling stations 71%
Lifecycle ownership experience including charging and fueling, maintenance, repair, and remarketing 62.5%
Purchase price and incentives 54%
Safety of drivers and passengers in green vehicles 29%
Manufacturing and fueling the vehicle with energy efficient and environmentally responsible methods 25%
Gains alternative fuel vehicles are making in environmental, energy, and economic issues 21%
Payment methods for charging and fueling stations 21%
Ride and drive opportunities 21%
Connectivity with mobile devices 12.5%

Other:

Education related to how new technologies will be adopted over time. People in general need to put into context the magnitude of the change/transition that comes with moving away from gasoline ICE’s.
Long range between refueling events.
There are many smaller companies trying to start EV companies; they need access to funding. Only these companies want to bring the price of EV’s down; gas OEM’s don’t want EV’s and are not working on affordable EV’s. HELP!
New charging technologies, I read something a couple of months ago about a girl winning a science fair with almost instant charging. Real??
Since most electricity comes from coal powered plants how are they positively effecting the environment
Workplace charging infrastructure and programs
Technology transfer from auto racing use of hybrid and all-electric vehicles

How would you rank these stakeholder groups in importance for shaping the future of alternative fuel vehicles and clean transportation?

Consumers
Fleets
Government agencies
Original equipment manufacturers (car and truck makers)
Transportation providers (such as delivery and trucking)
Corporations
Charging and fueling infrastructure providers
Energy companies
Auto dealers
Environmental groups

What are some of the related topics that you’d be interested in reading about in Green Auto Market?

Next generation batteries for electric vehicles and hybrids 87%
Global market conditions for alternative fuel vehicles and clean transportation 65%
Regulatory, political, and economic issues affecting alternative fuels and vehicles 56.5%
Futuristic advanced technologies used in fuels such as biofuels and biomass, hydrogen, methanol, dimethyl ether (DME), and renewable natural gas (also known as biogas) 48%
How alternative fuels and energies are being used in other industries such as stationary units, air conditioning, power generation, and industrial applications 48%
Renewable energy including solar, wind, and hydro power 43.5%
Futuristic advanced technologies used in aerospace, auto racing, bikes, and military vehicles 35%
Sustainability campaigns in corporations, non-profit organizations, and government agencies 30.5%
Energy efficiency in manufacturing and production, residential and commercial buildings, and other areas 26%

Other:

Historical context of previous technology transitions (preference to transportation, but doesn’t need to be)
Driverless vehicles!!
Finding investors for new start-ups. Introducing new startups to your readers? The big auto guys don’t want EV’s and none of them are making money on EV’s. We need innovators like new start-ups that can bring affordable EV’s to the market

What methods do you think would be most effective in promoting support for purchasing decisions and public perception?

Vehicle specifications, pricing, and incentive data 65%
Ride and drives 52%
Answers to frequently asked questions 48%
Video interviews and presentations 43.5%
Step by step guides making purchase decisions 39%
Newsletters and blogs 22%
Whitepapers and reports 22%
Industry metrics including sales figures and alternative fuel prices 13 %
Podcasts and internet radio 13%

Other:

Actual range performance
Vehicle performance, vehicle appearance and comfort
Pricing, Pricing and Pricing.
Safety
Television
Carpool stickers

What car shoppers have been asking dealer about their green car owner experience

It was a lot of fun to participate in a radio show on Saturday morning that focused on questions consumers are having about green cars. Special thanks to show co-host Jeff Miller of Mark Miller Subaru for inviting my participation on the Utah Car Cents radio show that broadcasts on Saturday mornings in Salt Lake City. The hosts shared a lot of valuable feedback about what dealers are hearing from car shoppers. Here are few of the points I made during the radio show……

Hybrids – are popular with a lot of people though they’re only about 2.75% of US new vehicles sales – but the Toyota Prius family makes up over 41% of hybrid sales. Subaru is rolling out its 2014 XV Crosstrek Hybrid AWD crossover SUV that gets 33 mpg highway and 25 city.

Tesla Motors is still waiting for the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to get clear about its Model S recall after four fires that took place last fall. Tesla has re-stated that NHTSA still gives the 2014 model-year Model S a five-star crash-test rating, and reminds everyone that the car remains far safer than the typical gas-powered vehicles. It sales are doing pretty well too, leading the way in January numbers…….

2013 Plug-In EV US Sales
Chevrolet Volt 23,094
Nissan Leaf 22,610
Tesla Model S 18,650
Toyota Prius Plug In 12,088
Ford C-Max Energi 7,154
Ford Fusion Energi 6,089

January 2014 Plug-in EV US Sales
Tesla Model S   1,300
Nissan Leaf   1,252
Chevrolet Volt   918
Toyota Prius Plug In   803
Ford Fusion Energi   533
Ford C-Max Energi   471

As for this year, the BMW i3 and plug-in hybrid crossover i8 are getting a lot of attention, along with the Cadillac ELR extended range luxury car. Fiat 500E is getting interest and rave reviews. The 2014 Mitsubishi Outlander plug-in hybrid crossover SUV coming out.

The general consensus among experienced EV drivers is that a charging station will cost around $600 to $700. Some installation jobs can cost as little as $200; it can run as much as several thousand dollars if a conduit needs to be run from another part of the house, or if new or upgraded electrical service is required at that home.

Federal tax credits are available for $7,500 on qualifying electric vehicles including the Chevy Volt; other plug-in hybrids usually have less of a credit such as Ford Fusion Energi and C-Max Energi at $4,007. Hybrid and diesel credits expired a few years ago.

It’s very popular to lease electric cars these days rather than buy – and it makes up most of the sales transactions now. You can get a three year lease on the $28,000 Leaf for $199 per month in payments after an $1,800 down payment. Chevrolet is advertising a $299 a month lease for 36 months on a 2014 Volt priced at $34,995. That requires $2,499 as a down payment.

The two most popular compressed natural gas vehicles for consumers are the Honda Civic Natural Gas and a version of the Ford F-150 pickup launched last year. There are other CNG vehicles out there including pickups from GM and Chrysler – Ford is the only half-ton CNG (and propane autogas) pickup out there and more suited for personal driving trips than for work in construction and other industries. The Civic varies in price from $18,190 for the traditional version up to $27,965 for the natural gas version. A federal 50 cent per gallon equivalent credit in refueling natural gas expired at the end of 2013, but it’s still being determined how this will affect CNG prices. So far it doesn’t appear to be changing them, which can be about one third the price of diesel. The range estimate is shorter on the CNG version – maybe 225 miles on the natural gas fill up and about 425 miles on a tank of gasoline in the regular version of the Civic. Though customers will pay about $10,000 more to buy the CNG version of the F-150, they could see a payback on their investment in as little as two to three years because natural gas prices are so much cheaper than gasoline or diesel fuel, according to Ford.

Clean Diesel – 2013 sales
Volkswagen Jetta Diesel 43,983
Volkswagen Passat Diesel 34,963
Volkswagen Golf Diesel 7,558
Mercedes GK Class Diesel 6,200
Porsche Cayenne Diesel 5,386
Mercedes ML Class Diesel 4,886

Top selling US clean diesel model:
Chevrolet Cruze Diesel 2,995

The price is higher than gasoline – about $3.31 regular gasoline and $3.94 for diesel on Wednesday. But the mileage is very strong – usually higher than the comparable gasoline engine vehicles, which offsets the gas pump price differential. The technology is becoming more trustworthy as more Americans are changing perceptions of diesel from large, smelly, and sooty commercial trucks to clean, high performance German passenger cars. Turbo direct injection on the VW and Audi models is helping. The Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel ruling in the fuel pumps has helped, too.

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles: That’s been a very popular topic in all types of media in the past few months – consumer, automotive, and business. The Hyundai Tucson Fuel Cell rolled out at the LA Auto Show and is initially being offering in the Los Angeles and Orange County region of Southern California staring this spring for $499 per month on a 36 month lease with $2,999 down. This includes the addition of a remarkable new addition to the Hyundai Assurance program –unlimited free hydrogen refueling. The problem is that there’s only 10 hydrogen fueling station in the US right now, with eight of them in Southern California. Honda has the FCX Clarity fuel cell car in small numbers and will be rolling out its next generation fuel cell car soon. Mercedes has the F-Cell but also on small numbers. Toyota will be rolling out its FCV model fuel cell crossover in the US in 2015. They are amazingly clean – water vapor and zero emissions and you can fuel it up four minutes. But the cost has been high and the volume low; and you have the range anxiety challenge with its lack of refueling stations.

I Betcha: My take on clean transportation trends to watch in 2014

Luxury extended range cars: Extended range, plug-in hybrids will see their next luxury models hit the market next year. The Fisker Karma was the first one, but those sporty luxury cars have been out of production for quite a while now. The two models to watch in 2014 will be the Cadillac ELR and the BMW i8. The 2015 Cadillac ELR will start showing up in January at dealer lots and will start at $75,955. The 2014 BMW i8 will go for $135,625, including a $925 destination charge, when it shows up in the US during the spring season. They’ll be competing with the Tesla Model S, BMW i3, and later in the year, Tesla Model X crossover, all of which are battery electric vehicles. The extended range models are pricy even after federal tax credits and state incentives but offer the benefit Fisker has been selling – reduced range anxiety. Their production volumes will be limited, but GM and BMW have a lot of experience in successfully making and marketing luxury models.

Pricing: MSRP pricing for electric vehicles dropped in the first half of 2013 to the extent that the “price war” label could be applied for the first time. I would expect to see more of that happen including the cost of buying a Level 2 charger and having it installed in your garage. Multi-unit Level 2 chargers installed in parking garages, condos, and workplaces, are becoming a little bit more cost competitive, too. Converting business vehicles over to natural gas or propane may take a while to see a significant price drop – it’s still small in transaction numbers. Perhaps seeing more pickup trucks from the Big 3 with those alternative fuel options will push the cost down in a more competitive marketplace.

Connectivity: Seamless and simple connectivity between the smartphone and dashboard is expected by car owners today and has huge potential for improving the driving experience – such as not getting lost and making the trip more fuel efficient. It also has a lot to do with finding the right charging stations and alternative fuel spots – ones that actually work and will accept your payment method.

Responding to a crisis as an opportunity: Check out this blog post by Roger Lanctot, associate director, automotive practice, at Strategy Analytics. He makes the point that Tesla’s software update after its Model S battery fires tells a story about the issues automakers are facing on responding to customer perceptions and working with their dealer networks. Tesla was able to announce a software update to raise the speed at which the car automatically lowers itself by an inch for better aerodynamics. Other automakers, including Chrysler and Toyota, can provide their customers with software updates via smartphones for app updates and installation. This has happened despite dealer resistance. Lanctot, who led a speaker panel in November at Connected Car Expo, makes the point that GM (and OnStar) and other OEMs could do well to learn something from Tesla’s solution for software updates and the marketing points the automaker can score (and, I would say, customer retention). I would also say that turning problems into opportunities is there for every clean transportation technology – finding enough alternative fueling and charging stations, lithium battery durability, range anxiety concerns, dependability of the engine while using the alternative fuel, bringing a new fuel or powertrain into the fleet, and justifying the investment.

Lightweighting: For automakers in the US and Europe to meet ambitious government mandates on fuel efficiency and carbon emissions, ligthweighting the vehicles is being tried out – bringing in more magnesium alloys (BMW), aluminum (Ford in the next F-150 pickup), and using more plastics (every OEM) being clear examples. The biggest concern has been safety – metal might be heavier than its alternative, but it’s more likely to retain its structure during a collision or once the vehicle is weighted down with a lot of cargo. Government safety standards are more stringent these days, but there needs to be more confidence in the testing procedures.

Infrastructure: It’s the classic quandary in clean transportation. Will people really buy enough of these green vehicles to turn a profit? Is there enough alternative fueling and charging infrastructure to alleviate their range anxiety? The numbers are getting better (as readers of the monthly Green Auto Market Extended Edition can confirm – where stats on charging and fueling stations are reported each month). One of the ways this is seeing improvement is through local market alliances, many times organized by Clean Cities coordinators. Infrastructure suppliers play a key role, too. In this Green Auto Market interview, Schneider Electric’s Mike Calise talked about an alliance bringing together stakeholders such as employers, a carshare service, Schneider Electric, and Toyota to set up train stations with EV charging, carsharing, and bike stands. The concerns of community stakeholders have to be addressed and integrated within the infrastructure planning to get the necessary buy-in.

A few other points to make. Don’t write off biofuels in the wake of the EPA’s Renewable Fuel Standard decision. Or with concern over the economic viability of the fuel, or whether environmental concerns offset their advantages. Check out Biofuels Digest – you may be astonished at how big advanced biofuels are becoming as an industry and what investors think about it. A lot of it has been going on outside of transportation, but that’s starting to change. Carsharing and van pooling are starting to take off in the US – Zipcar, City CarShare, Enterprise CarShare, Hertz 24/7, and Car2go (a Daimler subsidiary) are expanding in several markets, and I’m starting to see a lot more van pooling services out on the roads. Fleet managers are extremely important stakeholders and decision makers to follow. Pay attention to what Claude Masters, NAFA’s president, is up to including organizing workshops with CALSTART. Fleet management companies (such as ARI, PHH Arval, GE Capital Fleet Services, Wheels, Enterprise Fleet Services, and Donlen) are offering fleets more services in sustainability, clean transportation, and alternative fuel vehicles.

Don’t shoot me, I’m only the messenger! Why you should read John DeCicco’s commentary

There’s an article you should read, even though many of you are going to hate it.

John DeCicco gets very blunt and criticizes the Obama Administration’s push for electric vehicles and alternative fuel vehicles – along with presidential programs going back to Ronald Reagan that he says were a waste of taxpayer’s money. Government subsidies and mandates haven’t worked, he says. He lambastes Obama administration policies, which are usually considered to be very green. He thinks that the policies are “under the misguided presumption that alternative fuels emit significantly fewer greenhouse gases than gasoline, and goaded by green groups and alternative fuel business interests.”

I do think you should take DeCicco and his article in a Yale University journal very seriously. He’s a noted academic researcher, has been a senior fellow at Environmental Defense Fund, and he pioneered US green car ratings for the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy.

He thinks the best way to go will need a three-prong strategy: 1. Continue to raise fuel economy standards. 2. Implement policies that will reduce driving. 3. Control carbon upstream in energy and fuels used downstream in our daily lives.

As for the upstream/downstream argument, he thinks much of it boils down to the source of the energy. DeCicco makes the classic argument about the downside of EVs. About two thirds of the electricity that powers plug-in electric vehicles comes from fossil fuels – coal and natural gas – which removes the good side of EVs. Carbon emissions need to be cut down at electricity power plants – although he does acknowledge that this is included in Obama’s new climate plan.

And, of course, he rips into biofuels: “Similarly, for biofuels such as ethanol, any potential climate benefit is entirely upstream on land where feedstocks are grown. Biofuels have no benefit downstream, where used as motor fuels, because their tailpipe CO2 emissions differ only trivially from those of gasoline,” he wrote.

He’s painting a picture that can be bleak and depressing. At the end of the day, stakeholders in this field must stay well informed and effectively get the word out on their green transportation campaigns. That requires adopting strategies that have a good chance of accomplishing their intended goals. Using hybrids and highly fuel-efficient vehicles is part of reducing emissions. Natural gas, electricity, propane autogas, ethanol, biodiesel, and hydrogen – in their current realities – are far from perfect or ideal. You could think of it as “transitional fuels” that are a step forward away from petroleum and have their role to play in reducing carbon emissions, job creation and economic growth, and curing our addiction to oil. Electricity made from 100% renewables, algae and cellulosic biofuels, renewable natural gas, and hydrogen extracted from clean sources, are targets to aim for – but they’re still a long ways off.