This Week’s Top 10: Low emission NGVs and RNG big at ACT Expo, Ports urged to clean up truck air pollution

by Jon LeSage, editor and publisher, Green Auto Market

Here’s my take on the 10 most significant and interesting occurrences during the past week…….

  1. Low emission NGVs and fuels highlighted at ACT Expo: A new jobs study was released on the opening day of ACT Expo 2017 in Long Beach, Calif., predicting that deploying trucks fueled by renewable natural gas could create up to 130,000 new jobs and add $14 billion to California’s economy. The ‘RNG Jobs Report’ examines the economic potential of fueling heavy-duty trucks with renewable natural gas produced in California, instead of being powered by petroleum-based diesel. The study was released jointly by the Coalition for Renewable Natural Gas (RNG Coalition) and the California Natural Gas Vehicle Coalition (CNGVC). A switch to renewable natural gas trucks could quickly help California achieve its air quality, greenhouse gas emissions, and climate change-related goals, the two coalitions say…….. Cummins Westport introduced new 2018 model year natural gas engines for regional haul truck / tractor, vocational and transit, school bus, and refuse applications. The new B6.7N, L9N, and ISX12N engines feature Environmental Protection Agency and California Air Resources Board Optional Low NOx certification, on-board diagnostics, closed crankcase ventilation (CCV) systems, and performance and reliability improvements. The new ISX12N features a redesigned fuel system with fewer parts and improved performance. All CWI engines offer customers the choice of using compressed natural gas (CNG), liquefied natural gas (LNG) or renewable natural gas (“RNG”) as a fuel.  Using low carbon intensity RNG fuel provides significant well-to-wheel GHG reductions and is an important aspect of a move to zero emissions strategy, the company said.
  2. ACT Now Plan: Members of the California Natural Gas Vehicle Coalition (CNGVC) yesterday urged the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach to develop and implement an aggressive clean truck program as part of the updated 2017 Clean Air Action Plan (CAAP). To accelerate the CAAP, the Coalition developed the Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) Now Plan, which offers a cost-effective opportunity, using proven technology, to drastically and immediately reduce emissions from the 13,000 heavy-duty trucks serving the two ports. Coalition members outlined the ACT Now Plan at ACT Expo 2017. The plan calls on port leaders to immediately increase the number of zero- and near-zero emissions trucks to improve regional air quality, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and drive job growth. “The latest generation of low-NOx, zero-equivalent natural gas engines powered by renewable natural gas exceed the required air quality standard by 90 percent and they are available today,” said Thomas Lawson, president of CNGVC. “There is no reason to wait to clean Southern California’s air.”
  3. Tree planting for Earth Month: Ford and Zipcar planted 20,869 trees on Saturday through One Tree Planted as a result of their college Earth Month campaign. The program further encouraged the use of sustainable transportation on campus by committing to plant one tree for every reservation made in a Ford Zipcar, and an extra tree for students who carpooled and shared a picture using the hashtag #FordZipsters. The campaign was open to over 500 college and university campuses with existing Zipcar programs from April 13-23. The resulting trees were planted through One Tree Planted, a non-profit on a mission to reforest the planet and provide education, awareness and engagement on the importance of trees. The trees were planted in the Ochoco National Forest in Oregon as part of the McKay Creek Floodplain Reconnection Project. Zipcar members can reserve any of the company’s more than 12,000 self-service vehicles across the globe, including a variety of Ford models, by the hour or day, including the cost of gas, maintenance and insurance.
  4. Fuel cell delivery vans: UPS showed the world’s first hydrogen fuel cell Class 6 delivery truck today during ACT Expo. The van, developed as part of a $10-million federal Department of Energy program, is the first of 17 hydrogen fuel-cell vans the company will be deploying in the U.S. by the end of 2018. The initial van showed today at ACT Expo will start in service later this year serving the Sacramento market.
  5. EVs for Uber rides in Oregon: Uber drivers in Portland, Ore., are being encouraged to switch over to electric vehicles for rides. Similar to a program launched in London, this one will start in late May and taps into a combination of incentives and educational programs. Uber says it has about 6,000 drivers in Oregon now; while about 100 of them drive EVs now, the company wants to utilize the program to bring the number up to around 600 EVs by 2019. The company is working with Drive Oregon, a nonprofit dedicated to getting more EVs on the state’s roads. The organization will work with Uber drivers on how to share the benefits of EVs with their riders. In separate news, Drive Oregon announced that its name has been changed to Forth. After being a big part of helping bring together leaders for the state to become the nation’s “living lab” for electric mobility, the organization is expanding beyond its home state, expanding to other regions and incorporating smart, shared mobility technology. You can visit the new website to learn more about the new look, expanded mission, and new Go Forth Electric Vehicle Showcase.
  6. Audi’s sustainable suppliers: Audi AG introduced sustainability ratings for its automotive suppliers last month. The Volkswagen subsidiary is increasing its commitment to achieving a sustainable value chain. The ratings are based on checks carried out at the suppliers’ production plants as well as on company reporting. The premium car manufacturer is starting the ratings system with the selection of suppliers for the new Audi e-tron electric SUV and for the successor to the Audi A3.
  7. ZEV fees and fuel taxes jumping up in CA: California will raise $52.4 billion over the next decade to repair its roadway infrastructure through zero emission vehicle fees and raising taxes on gasoline and diesel. Owners of all-electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell vehicles will have to pay an annual $100 fee to the state starting on July 1, 2020. That’s expected to raise $200 million for the state funding program. Gasoline taxes will go up another 12 cents a gallon from the current 30 cents per gallon as of Nov. 1, 2017. Diesel taxes will go up another 20 cents from the current 13 cents per gallon, and a sales tax for diesel vehicles will go up another 5.75% on that date. These tax increases are expected to bring in tax revenue of $24.4 billion, $7.3 billon, and $3.5 billion, respectively. Funds from the new Road Repair and Accountability Act just signed into law by Gov. Jerry Brown will cover various projects such as $15 billion in “Fix-It-First” local road repairs, including fixing potholes; $7.5 billion to improve local public transportation; and $4 billion in bridge and culvert repairs.
  8. Tesla dealing with safety rating ding: Tesla started an over-the-air update to reinstate the emergency automatic braking (AEB) feature in all of the Model S and Model X vehicles produced since late October without AEB. The company started adding it fully autonomous vehicle technology and had temporarily set aside AEB and other functions. Consumer Reports has dropped the Model S sedan’s overall score to 85 from 87, down from the top of the luxury vehicle list into third place behind the BMW 7 Series and Lexus LS. The Tesla Model X also took a hit, dropping from 58 to 56, putting it near the bottom of the midsized luxury SUV segment. Consumer Reports says that Tesla had been making promises to upgrade the software and deal with the safety problem since late 2016, but had not yet taken action.
  9. Total SA sees EVs taking off: A leading oil producer predicts that electric vehicles could make up to 30% of global new vehicle sales by 2030. Speaking recently at the Bloomberg New Energy Finance conference in New York, Total SA’s chief energy economist, Joel Couse, predicted that EVs will make up 15 to 30 percent of global new vehicle sales by that year. Oil demand used in transportation will flatten out after 2030 and possibly even decline, he said. That’s the most aggressive forecast ever made by a major oil industry company, said Colin McKerracher, head of advanced transport analysis at Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
  10. VW settlement in California: Automakers have expressed concerns that Volkswagen is being give a competitive advantage in California over how the German automaker will be spending $200 million in the state through its diesel emissions settlement. The California Air Resources Board has taken public comments and is reviewing VW’s proposal on how the $200 million will be spent in the first 30 months on plug-in vehicle infrastructure and other zero emission vehicle projects. Competitor automakers said that VW has chosen several locations that already have many electric vehicles in place, and support should go elsewhere in California to spur more EV interest and sales. Toyota, Honda, and Hyundai also filed a statement asking the state to direct a “significant portion” of the funds into hydrogen fueling stations to meet zero emission vehicle goals. Sierra Club in its CARB filing asked the automaker to “rethink its infrastructure proposal to include more investments in community-based charging in disadvantaged communities.”

 

    Tesla seeking joint venture partner and other interesting news from China

    If you take a look at which global automakers have joint ventures with government-backed Chinese companies, you’ll notice only one missing: Tesla. Even Chinese automaker BYD, the global leader in electric vehicle sales, has a JV partnership with Daimler through Shenzhen DENZA New Energy Automotive Co., Ltd.

    Tesla’s place in China may be changing soon. Last week, Tesla CEO Elon Musk met with Chinese vice premier Wang Yang. China’s Xinhua news service posted a photo from their meeting on Twitter. It’s the first time that Wang has met with only one automaker executive, according to Li Anding, a former automotive reporter for Xinhua and now a consultant with automakers doing business in China. “Wang usually meets with groups of people,” he said.

    Li predicts the meeting and Twitter post are part of talks between the carmaker and government about creating a joint venture partnership for Tesla to manufacture electric cars locally.

    A high-level official from China’s auto lobby said that Tesla has been holding meetings with potential partners in Chinese cities. Musk’s meeting with Wang, who previously headed the Guandong province, suggests that the province is a potential region for Tesla to build another plant beyond Fremont, Calif., and its Nevada “Gigafactory” battery plant.

    Going this route would eliminate the steep 25 percent tariff Tesla currently pays to China on its imported cars selling in that country. The market has become the most important in the world for plug-in vehicle sales, and it’s going that way for Tesla as Musk has said in the past. Tesla earned $1 billion in revenue there last year, compared to $4.2 billion in the U.S.; and the electric carmaker has been exploring building a new factory in China in recent years.

    Tesla could be well positioned in the near future to reach China’s two market segments for plug-in vehicle sales:  wealthy consumers looking for luxury vehicles, and workers who’ve moved to the city and need their first car.

    Luxury carmakers see China as being vital. The BMW Brilliance alliance is the German luxury performance carmaker’s platform in China. On the affordable end for new car buyers, the Tesla Model 3 is expected to be very competitive against BYD and others in the China market. Taking away the 25 percent tariff by establishing a JV production plant would be part of bringing down the price of all Tesla vehicles sold in China – and offering a much more profitable prospect for the U.S. company.

    As covered last week in Green Auto Market, the Chinese government may very well enact a steep mandate that is making automakers quite anxious – and is moving them to increase their plug-in vehicles sales volume in that market.  China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology proposed last fall that “new energy vehicles” make up at least 8% of new vehicle sales as soon as 2018, and that would go up to 12% by 2020. Included in those zero emissions vehicle numbers (based on California’s ZEV structure) would be all-electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell vehicles covering light, medium, and heavy duty vehicles. That includes all new cars, trucks, and buses sold in the country.

    The national government is considering blocking or delaying these proposed measures after industry feedback concluded that the targets are overly ambitious. It may be finalized one way or another by June, according to a government official. Even if that measure fails, the move toward solidifying China as the world’s largest plug-in vehicle market isn’t expected to go away, but demand has started to soften this year.

    Sales of plug-in hybrid and battery electric cars fell nearly 5% in January to March compared with the same period a year ago, China’s Association of Automobile Manufacturers said. Analysts say that demand has dropped this year from the dramatic increases over the past three years due to a 20% cut in subsidy payouts by the national government this year, barriers being raised for entry of new car models, and debate over easing the proposed sales mandate for new energy vehicles.

    Another sign that foreign companies won’t be backing away from China came last week from Tesla’s battery partner, Panasonic. The Japanese company announced last week that it had an opening ceremony for a new automotive lithium-ion battery factory in Dalian, China.

    The company says that the factory is Panasonic’s first automotive battery cell production site in China, and it’s part of a corporate goal to have strong footing in the plug-in vehicle battery market. “Panasonic will further strengthen its global competitiveness in the automotive battery industry by the establishment of production sites in Japan, the U.S., and China,” the company said.

      This Week’s Top 10: VW paying $4.3B in fines, Tesla speeding up Model 3 production

      by Jon LeSage, editor and publisher, Green Auto Market

      Here’s my take on the 10 most significant and interesting occurrences during the past week…….

      1. VW settles criminal charges:  Volkswagen’s guilty plea to three felonies in March resulted in the automaker being sentenced Friday to pay $4.3 billion in fines for importing 59,000 polluting diesel vehicles into the U.S. beginning in 2009. The charges were for conspiracy, obstruction of justice, and introducing imported merchandise into the U.S. by means of false statements. Without the plea deal, VW would have faced potential criminal fines in the cases of between $17 billion and $34 billion. In a federal courtroom in Detroit, U.S. District Judge Sean Cox called VW’s actions a “deliberate, massive fraud perpetrated by VW management. We don’t know how far up the corporate ladder it goes. Hopefully, the DOJ, and more hopefully, the German government, will continue to investigate and prosecute” those responsible. That ends prosecution by the federal government, but buybacks aren’t yet completed and civil suits continue in the U.S.; criminal investigations continue in other countries, including Germany.
      2. Speeding up Model 3 production:  Tesla will begin volume production of the Model 3 in September by streamlining the tooling process, which runs the risk of facing recalls or warranty repairs. On an investor conference call last month, CEO Elon Musk said the company would skip the usual auto manufacturing procedure, which he called “beta,” to speed up production. Musk said he would instead use “advanced analytical techniques,” which are computer simulations, to speed up the process. Automakers usually test a cheaper prototype model to make sure parts and components fit correctly, adding time and cost to the process but also guaranteeing a higher level of vehicle reliability. Musk has promised to ramp up vehicle production fivefold next year, producing and selling 500,000 vehicles a year by 2018 as the Model 3 enters the market.
      3. More Pacifica plug-ins going to Waymo:  Fiat Chrysler Automobiles is providing another 500 Chrysler Pacifica plug-in hybrid minvans to Waymo’s self-driving vehicle test project. Last year, FCA delivered 100 of these vehicles that Waymo that both companies equipped with its autonomous technology. Waymo had worked with FCA engineers at a Michigan facility to modify the vehicle’s with the technology. Waymo is also planning on opening up test rides to the public, starting in Phoenix.
      4. Amazon goes autonomous:  Amazon is entering the autonomous technology sector by testing out applications to make its product deliveries become faster and more convenient for customers. Details aren’t coming out yet on what the team of a dozen employees is working on but it could be an autonomous fleet of delivery trucks. The internet giant is interested in autonomous trucking for its own deliveries and possibly to sell transport services to other companies such as UPS and FedEx. In January, the company secured a patent for a network that helps autonomous vehicles adjust in changing driving environments.
      5. AAA study on EV interest:  A new AAA study found that 30 million Americans say they’re likely to buy an electric vehicle, with members of the Millennial generation especially interested with 20% wanting to go that route. But the study also found that the interest level hasn’t yet turned into EV sales for most of them. AAA said that concerns include range anxiety, lack of charging stations, and running out of battery power before the end of their drive. Low ownership costs and emerging technologies will improve their sales in the future, according to AAA.
      6. EV Roadmap in Portland:  EV Roadmap 10 invites participants to “test drive the future,” learning from industry leaders as well as the leading communities and regional markets. The conference will be held June 20-21 in Portland, Ore., and will be organized around three tracks: Cars, focusing on the accelerating adoption of electric cars and other EVs. Charging infrastructure, which is evolving quickly to meet the needs of millions of new electric vehicle drivers. Community will focus on the broader “ecosystem” needed for the market to expand. Sessions will include an in-depth discussion of the Electrify America plan, programs designed to bring electric mobility benefits to underserved communities, and analysis of how electric vehicle adoption can lower electricity rates. You can register for the event online.
      7. Penske again named to SmartWay winners:  Penske Truck Leasing has, for the fifth straight year, been given the SmartWay Affiliate Challenge Award by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Penske is one of nine organizations to receive this honor. The SmartWay Affiliate Challenge is a national challenge developed by the EPA to acknowledge organizations that are contributing to a clean energy economy by reaching out to inform and educate businesses, their communities, truck drivers and other stakeholders about steps they can take to reduce freight emissions and their other environmental impacts. Here’s the list of winners. “EPA commends the SmartWay Affiliate Challenge honorees for their extraordinary level of commitment and enthusiasm in supporting more efficient and sustainable business practices in moving goods,” said Christopher Grundler, director of the EPA’s Office of Transportation and Air Quality. “These organizations represent diverse industry sectors and stakeholders who believe that American prosperity can be preserved while protecting the environment.”
      8. Next Generation Mobility Challenge:  Toyota and Net Impact announced three finalist groups for the Next Generation Mobility Challenge, which focuses on developing solutions for critical mobility needs in local communities around the world. The winning team will be announced in early summer, and finalists were named to the list based on project design, feasibility, and social impact. The finalists are: “The Hub” – a carpooling concept based in school communities that would be more efficient than public transit and allow commuting parents to spend more time with their families, featuring students from California College of the Arts and UC Berkeley; “Project Mobius” – a company-sponsored employee transportation system for low-income individuals to help them acquire and retain jobs while boosting employee loyalty and reducing environmental impact, featuring students from University of Colorado; and “Para Pickup” – a service that gives people with disabilities safe, affordable and flexible ways to get home, improving on current options which can be inflexible and slow, featuring students from Georgia Tech.
      9. Fuel cell truck test:  Toyota announced “Project Portal,” a hydrogen fuel cell system designed for heavy duty truck use at the Port of Los Angeles. The zero-emission truck proof of concept will take part in a feasibility study examining the potential of fuel cell technology in heavy duty applications. The study will begin this summer and contribute to the Port’s Clean Air Action Plan, which has dramatically reduced harmful emissions from operations at the Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles since 2005.
      10. Propane autogas in Europe:  European Alternative Fuels Observatory (EAFO) published a special edition of its report on the role propane autogas vehicles have played in the region in recent years. It’s the most widely used alternative fuel in Europe now with more than 12 million passenger vehicles placed in fleets as of 2015. Turkey has 35% of these vehicles with over four million vehicles. Italy and Poland join Turkey in being the only countries with over one million propane-powered passenger vehicles on their roads. Turkey also has the largest number of propane fueling sites, with over 10,000 stations. Germany has the second highest number of propane autogas stations despite having only the fourth largest propane-powered fleet in the region.

        Looking at the numbers behind China and California’s zero emission vehicle mandates

        Auto Shanghai 2017 has been full of “new energy vehicle” announcements for the Chinese market from major and startup automakers. General Motors has plans to launch 10 all-electric and plug-in hybrid models by 2020. Ford, Volkswagen, and Nissan, all have aggressive plans for the market. Chinese startup NextEV displayed 11 vehicle concepts from its all-electric NIO brand.

        Behind all of it is the top global market for plug-in electrified vehicle sales and proposed government mandates for increasing those sales. China is interested in following California’s zero emission vehicle (ZEV) structure mandating an even higher percentage of sales to hit these targets with a credit trading scheme backing it up. But how realistic is it for China to meet its mandates – and for California?

        China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology proposed last fall that ZEVs represent 8% of new vehicle sales as soon as 2018, and that would go up to 12% by 2020. Included in those numbers would be all-electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell vehicles covering light, medium, and heavy duty vehicles. That includes all new cars, trucks, and buses sold in the country.

        Companies that fail to meet the 8% requirement would face fines or have to buy credits from those that exceeded the minimum. That percentage score comes from weighted averages assigned to various zero- and low-emission vehicles. As in California, automakers that fail to meet the requirement face fines or have to buy credits from those that exceeded the minimum.

        Average production of new energy vehicles last year may have contributed only about 3% of the score required, 5 percentage points short of the proposed 2018 target, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

        During 2016, there were about 507,000 new energy vehicles sold in China. As for total new vehicles sold in the country, there were about 28.03 million sold. As for the percentage of sales, NEVs accounted for about 1.8% of new vehicles sold; the government’s weighted averages brought it up to 3% in the scoring system.

        China is considering blocking or delaying these proposed measures after industry feedback concluded that the targets are overly ambitious. It may be finalized by May or June, according to a government official.

        Automakers are backing China’s goals, but are feeling a lot of anxiety about getting anywhere near close to selling 8% of total sales as ZEVs by 2018 – even if credit trading and a flexible point system helps ease the burden.

        For those consumers and fleets making vehicle purchases in China, large sedans and SUVs are quite attractive. Many of these consumers are experiencing their first-ever high incomes, and are supporting China’s economic growth by spending a lot of it on vehicles, housing, mobile devices, entertainment, travel, and personal investments.

        For now, buying vehicles that consume a lot of fossil fuel is just fine with car shoppers. A clear example of this is that first quarter 2017 SUV sales soared 21% from a year earlier to 2.4 million in China, while electric vehicle purchases declined 4.4% to just 55,929, reports Associated Press. Incentives were down on NEVs after the first of the year, which was thought to have an impact on NEV sales. If the current rate continues, it could finish the year below last year’s 507,000 plug-in vehicles sold.

        Last year, California saw 62,166 plug-in electrified vehicles sold. Overall, the state had 2.1 million in new vehicle sales, with PEVs making up about 2.96% of total sales.

        California Governor Jerry Brown’s ZEV goal is for the state to have 1.5 million ZEVs on its roads by 2025. That means about 15% of new vehicle purchases will need by to be ZEVs by 2025, or about 12% of sales higher than where it is now.

        Commercial vehicles, such as medium- and heavy duty trucks, vans, and buses, are included in California’s ZEV sales data, similar to China. Both governments also include hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in those totals. Those sales volumes are quite small, but California is still leading the way on fuel cell vehicles and fueling stations. China has yet to see any fuel cell vehicle sales, though Toyota and other automakers plan to enter that fuel cell market.

        China’s national government has been cracking down on vehicle manufacturers committing fraud in their NEV production and sales numbers to tap into generous government subsidies. That’s always been a concern for advocates of emission reduction targets around the world – that subsidies could be a scam and that credit trading can water down the end goals of the mandates.

        China and the European Union are expected to keep strict mandates in place for the sale of ZEVs in those markets. The U.S. is expected to soften fuel economy and emissions rules under the Trump administration, though some analysts expect that consumers and fleets will increase demand in fuel efficient vehicles and that the nation’s current level of about 1% of new vehicle sales going to PEVs will be seeing an increase soon.

        Most of the studies on ZEV goals being met point to a few recommendations:

        • Staying with subsidies including low-interest loans and rebates to vehicle manufacturers, and rebates and tax incentives available to consumers and fleets. These will need to be supported by cash-back incentives and finance programs from OEMs sometimes tied to dealer programs.
        • Continuing to bring down acquisition cost by making the battery packs and electric drives more affordable and cost competitive.
        • Increasing the range of all-electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell vehicles.
        • Speeding up charging time through faster charges and an infrastructure spreading through workplaces, public chargers, homes, and multi-unit dwellings.
        • Wireless charging is also raising hopes for wide adoption of PEVs.
        • Adding more hydrogen fueling stations.
        • Seeing more diversified and attractive offerings in plug-in and fuel cell vehicle launches for both passenger and commercial vehicles.
        • Globalizing new vehicle launches for efficiency and sales growth – with variations built in by automakers based on government regulations, left- or right-side steering wheels and pedals, types of electric outlets in each country, and consumer and fleet expectations.
        • Public awareness and education programs tied to larger greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets including ride and drive events, public chargers and hydrogen stations, and powering PEVs and fuel cell vehicles through renewable energy sources.

          This Week’s Top 10: Ford wants to electrify China market, White House wants to pass cost of EPA vehicle emissions testing over to automakers

          by Jon LeSage, editor and publisher, Green Auto Market

          Here’s my take on the 10 most significant and interesting occurrences during the past week…….

          1. Ford joining China EV market: Ford Motor Co. is now in agreement with Daimler, Tesla, and General Motors on the importance of China in the global electric vehicle market. Ford is launching the Mondeo Energi plug-in hybrid in China early next year and an all-electric small SUV in that market within five years. The EV will go more than 280 miles on a charge, and will also be sold in the U.S. and Europe. The automaker said that 70 percent of all Ford nameplates will have an electrified option in China by 2025; that will include hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and battery electric vehicles. That lineup will include all vehicles manufactured jointly through Changan Ford JV, which is a collaboration with Changan Automobile. EV sales are expected to stay strong in China, whether or not the government cuts back on its generous subsidies. “The time is right for Ford to expand our EV lineup and investments in China,” said Ford CEO Mark Fields. “We are prioritizing our electrification efforts on China to reflect its importance as a global electrified vehicle market and to make lives better, simpler and more cost effective for Chinese consumers.”
          2. EPA lab fees: The White House would like to see automakers pay for testing in the Environmental Protection Agency’s emissions testing lab. The Trump administration is proposing a $48 million budget cut that would close down the lab and cut 168 jobs. It would mean “pretty much shutting down the testing lab,” said Margo Oge, who led the EPA’s Office of Transportation and Air Quality under the Obama administration. Funding would come in by increasing fees that automakers and engine manufacturers would be required to pay for testing.
          3. Cap-and-trade protected for now: California’s cap-and-trade system was solidified by a state court – at least until 2020. The state program allows companies to purchase carbon credits through an auction or a secondary market and has produced millions of dollars in funding programs for clean transportation and fuels. A state appeals court has found that it’s not an illegal tax due to voluntary participation and the purchase of something with value, which keeps it from being a tax, according to the ruling. The program will stay in place through 2020 before becoming vulnerable to legal challenges. Since its launch in 2012, California has taken in about $4.4 billion on auction proceeds to be spent on clean energy, low-carbon transportation, and other programs supporting reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
          4. 4 in I.D. lineup: According to Volkswagen design chief Klaus Bischoff, the fourth I.D. all-electric vehicle, a concept sedan, will be revealed at the Frankfurt Motor Show in September. It won’t be revealed before then, but it got a lot of “wows” from VW colleagues when they saw it for the first time, he said. That’s the fourth in the I.D. series to be built on the new MEB modular electric platform. The I.D. hatchback compact concept, unveiled in September at the Paris auto show, was the first and is scheduled for production in 2020. The I.D. Buzz microbus concept was revealed in January at the Detroit auto show, and the automaker will be showing the third one, an I.D. SUV concept, soon at the Shanghai Motor Show. The company recently told analysts that the I.D. concept hatchback is expected to have its design approved this August for a 2020 launch.
          5. Hybrid police car: Ford is rolling out the first hybrid police car, which was designed to meet certification standards law enforcement agencies require to meet their full pursuit ratings. The Police Responder Hybrid Sedan is being built on the Fusion Hybrid. The automaker designed the pursuit vehicle for agencies to cut fuel costs and decrease emissions while driving and idling. Ford received an EPA-estimated mpg of 38 combined city and highway, more than double that of the Ford Police Interceptor with its 3.7-liter, V6 engine and 18 mpg combined EPA rating. The police departments in Los Angeles and New York City will be taking deliveries this summer.
          6. AutoDrive Challenge: General Motors is sponsoring AutoDrive Challenge, a university competition with SAE International in autonomous vehicles. At SAE World Congress Experience in Detroit, they announced these universities will be demonstrating automated Chevy Bolts during a three-year challenge. Kettering University, Michigan State University, Michigan Tech, North Carolina A&T University, Texas A&M University, University of Toronto, University of Waterloo, and Virginia Tech are now competing. GM and SAE have been heavily involved in student competitions for advanced vehicle technology for years. Formula SAE race car design competition started in 1980, and GM is now sponsoring EcoCar 3 with the U.S. Department of Energy.
          7. TurboDock chargers: AeroVironment Inc. announced today that Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport will install 102 of its TurboDock EV charging stations in the airport’s parking structures. Packed with features specifically designed to make it ideal for airports, including modular charging configurations, 120V capability and mobile app based access control, TurboDock helps EV drivers proceed with certainty, the company said. The installation is the most recent effort by the City of Atlanta and the Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport to turn ATL into one of the greenest airports in the world.
          8. March EV sales: Tesla took No. 1 and No. 2 in U.S. electric vehicles sales, with about 3,100 and 2,500 units sold, respectively. The Chevy Volt came in third with 2,132 units sold and has been the top performing plug-in hybrid in U.S. sales through the first quarter. The Prius Prime was fourth on the list with 1,618 units sold.
          9. ACT Expo autonomous vehicle panel: “The Future of Intelligent Transportation: Connected & Autonomous Vehicles” will be one of the speaker panels at the upcoming Advanced Clean Transportation Expo (ACT Expo 2017). Attendees can learn more about the latest advancements in innovative vehicle technologies that are disrupting the way vehicles interact with other vehicles, the environment around them, and drivers. Featured speakers include Mike Roeth, North American Council for Freight Efficiency, an industry leader who understands the phases of truck automation and the expected ROI; Bill Burns, City of Columbus, Ohio, who played an integral role in combining electric and automated technology to win DOT’s Smart City Challenge; and Joanna Wadsworth, City of Las Vegas on launching the first electric autonomous shuttle on U.S. public roads. For further details on vehicle displays at the conference, you can view the vehicles list.
          10. ZEV mandate not going away: Read all about Plug In America’s history, along with the film “Who Killed the Electric Car?”, that goes back to 2003 and the California Air Resources Board’s controversial decision to become heavily influenced by pressure from automakers and scale back the zero emissions mandate. Times have changed, with CARB unanimously deciding to stay with the ZEV program as planned without any changes through 2025.

            Cleantech stock prices beyond Tesla, plus options if the IPO doesn’t work out

            If you’re looking to add cleantech stock to your portfolio, is there anything to buy beyond Tesla Inc. (TESLA)? If you’re a startup cleantech or clean transportation company, is going public viable for your financial future?

            Tesla’s stock price and market valuation grabbed a lot of attention last week, with the irony of its market capitalization rising over $49 billion versus Ford Motor Co. (F) being at $44.63 billion (as of late Friday). Ford’s shares were trading at $11.23 and Tesla closed Friday at $302.54. Not bad for a company that’s never earned a quarterly profit.

            It continued into yesterday with the Tesla stock climbing 3.3% Monday to $50.9 billion in market capitalization, eclipsing General Motors (GM) to become the highest ranking automaker in the U.S. – not in vehicle sales but it market valuation. Tesla is within $1 billion of Honda and making it into the top five global automakers in market value.

            “Tesla engenders optimism, freedom, defiance, and a host of other emotions that, in our view, other companies cannot replicate,” said Alexander Potter, an analyst at Piper Jaffray Cos., who upgraded the stock Monday. “As they scramble to catch up, we think Tesla’s competitors only make themselves appear more desperate.”

            Some critics worry that Tesla has become a cult of personality around charismatic CEO Elon Musk; while others see the real value coming from the quality and performance of the Model S and Model X and the impressive figure of bringing in over 400,000 pre-order down payments last year on the Model 3; not to mention Superchargers and Tesla Energy. A few Wall Street analysts are worried Tesla won’t be able to hold a stable financial position in the next couple of years as it ramps up to produce more than 500,000 vehicles a year and increases its debt. There’s also the big question of whether the SolarCity merger was a wise way to go. The latest stock surge is a clear sign that electric vehicles are being seen as an integral part of transportation’s future – with Tesla well positioned to tap into it.

            If you look at cleantech stocks or take a visit to Alternative Energy Stocks, you’ll find it difficult to locate stocks that are growing in price and have market valuation anywhere near Tesla’s. Leading solar power company SolarCity had been doing very well in stock market performance up to about a year ago, but then started seeing its stock value plummet. The company was facing a few serious hurdles, which prompted the company to merge late last year with Tesla. That meant SolarCity stock was no longer listed in NASDAQ market quotes.

            Green Auto Market Extended Edition tracks stock performance on a monthly basis. Tesla is the only publicly traded company on the list that has over a billion in market cap, though SolarCity used to be on that list. Vivint Solar, the second largest solar power company in the U.S., was looking very good about two years ago in stock price increases and market value. It had been split off from parent company Vivint Smart Home and was doing well after its IPO. SunEdison was going to acquire the company last year, but the deal fell apart, which brought stock prices down. The two Vivint companies are partnering now to go after more market share dominated by Tesla’s SolarCity; and that includes increasingly popular smart-home tech offered by companies like Vivint.

            Some companies tracked in Alternative Energy Stocks have only a small portion of their business in cleantech. AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) is a good example. While it plays a leading role in bringing electric vehicle charging stations to the U.S., that segment of the company’s revenue pales in comparison to AeroVironment’s role in aerospace.

            About 10 years ago, cleantech stock and private equity funding was a hot commodity with renewable energy and electric car startups gaining backing. That took a dive after the Great Recession grabbed hold and venture capitalists and institutional stock fund managers started looking elsewhere, such as mobile device applications and Silicon Valley tech firms.

            Government grants, especially through the U.S. Department of Energy, filled some of that void for a few years. It became a battleground in Congress, and 2012 Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney used the public funding and bankruptcies of solar startup Solyndra, plug-in hybrid sports carmaker Fisker Automotive, and lithium battery company A123 Systems as campaign fodder against President Obama.

            Private equity has filled some of the void, with much of it coming from China. Wanxiang Group, a major auto parts supplier, has helped salvage and rejuvenate Fisker and A123 Systems through post-bankruptcy acquisitions. Karma Automotive is now using the Fisker Karma drive train system in its Karma Revero plug-in hybrid sports car. A123 Systems has switched over from lithium iron phosphate to nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) technology to meet the market demand for advanced battery chemistries in high energy applications, some of which will include plug-in vehicles. A lot of the company’s focus lately has been on 48-volt batteries.

            Some of the investments coming from China aren’t working out so well. U.S.-based startup Faraday Future is owned by LeEco and Chinese tech entrepreneur Jia Yueting. LeEco has faced its own set of financial problems and may be backing away from Faraday Future at this time.

            LeEco is a major investor in another electric car startup grabbing a lot of attention these days. California-based Lucid Motors is looking for $700 million to establish its Arizona factory and build the “Air” electric luxury sedan. Lucid claims that the Air will go 400 miles per charge through two AC induction motors capable of producing 1,000 in combined horsepower.

            Lucid Motors is now working on a Series D financing round. Once that funding is secured, ground will be broke on its production plant. It will carry out the process gradually in three phases.

            For those interested in filling out their stock portfolio with companies getting good marks in sustainability performance, it might be a good idea to look at the supply chain and tech company partnerships.

            Johnson Controls International (JCI) is getting strong sustainability ratings, and is considered to have tangible value on the stock market. The company has been included in 40 sustainability indices in recent years and claims to have reduced its greenhouse gas emissions intensity 41% from 2002 to 2014. JCI is a leading supplier of batteries for hybrids and EVs, along with being a recycler of lead-acid batteries; and a large producer of automotive electronics and parts such as seats and instrumental panels. It’s also well known for being a leading provider of energy management products and HVAC for buildings.

            Renewable Energy Group (REGI) has been finding supporters, including a stock market analyst making annual recommendations to Renewable Energy World. The company has becomes a leading producer and seller of biomass-based diesel in the U.S. Turbulence over renewable fuel standard credits and low oil prices have hurt the company and many others, though the company’s fuel and stock prices are finding more backers in the market. The company is also doing well through a Services department that provides facility management and operational services to biofuel and cleantech facilities.

            Several major automakers and their supply chain partners have been working on using less energy and water in their factories and other facilities. Ford just made the World’s Most Ethical Companies for the eighth year. The automaker was acknowledged for making Partnership for a Cleaner Environment (PACE) part of its ethics and sustainability drive. That program was set up to encourage sustainability practices, including water and energy conservation, throughout its global supply chain. General Motors (GM) now has 122 landfill-free facilities around the world that recycle, reuse or convert to energy all waste from daily operations, about three fourths of which are manufacturing plants. The company has committed to using 100% renewable energy by 2050.

            Last year, Toyota Motor Corp. (TM) launched a six-phase sustainability initiative through 2050. Along with clean energy and water efficiency, the company says that 100% percent of its new vehicles sold that year will be zero emission.

            Tech companies like Apple, Google, and Facebook have gained a lot of backing supporting their share prices. They’re also heavily engaged in powering their facilities with clean energy, as detailed in a 2GreenEnergy blog post. Apple and Facebook clouds are powered by renewable energy. Amazon’s web service, which hosts Amazon.com, Pinterest, Netflix, Spotify, and many other major websites, said it will utilize 100% clean energy for its global network.

            You can also take a look at Cleantech Group’s list of companies and weightings for those included in the Cleantech Index. There are no automakers on the list, but a few suppliers and tech companies are being followed including Siemens, ABB, Schneider Electric, Johnson Controls, Borg Warner, Trimble Navigation, Intertek Group, and engineering firm Ricardo.

            Tesla has been wise to tap into just about every imaginable source of funding out there, short of crowdfunding (unless you want to put the $1,000 down payments for the Model 3 in that category). The electric carmaker took a Department of Energy loan that it paid back early. Its stock market value continues to be strong with Musk continuing to be the largest shareholder in the company.

            Musk has said that Tesla could likely have disappeared if it weren’t for significant investments made by global automakers Daimler and Toyota in 2009 and 2010. Both of these companies have sold their shares in Tesla for excellent profits. They did tap into Tesla’s electric drive system for some of their first steps into electric vehicles before ending the partnerships.

            Like many automakers, China will be a vital growth more for Tesla in the future. Musk had said China will someday become Tesla’s largest market, and the company just reported making $1 billion sales last year in that market.

            A Chinese company has also become one of the largest investors in Tesla. Chinese tech giant Tencent Holdings just invested $1.78 billion, or about 8.2 million shares, making it Tesla’s fifth-largest shareholder. The first four largest shareholders are Musk and investment companies Fidelity, Baillie Gifford, and T. Rowe Price.

            Tesla needs strong cash flow to get the Model 3 launched in high volume. Tencent wants to diversify its portfolio and is a big believer in how sizable EVs and the charging infrastructure will be. The company has been investing in Chinese EV startups. One of these, NextEV, also has a U.S. office near Tesla’s Palo Alto, Calif., headquarters, and is committed to rolling out an electric supercar that will be Tesla-competitive.

              This Week’s Top 10: CARB stays with clean car program, Keystone pipeline backed by Trump administration

              by Jon LeSage, editor and publisher, Green Auto Market

              Here’s my take on the 10 most significant and interesting occurrences during the past week…….

              1. California stays with it:  The California Air Resources Board has approved the Advanced Clean Cars (ACC) program, which reaffirms vehicle emissions standards set through 2025 should stay on track. The approved measure also mandates development of stronger requirements for vehicles manufactured in subsequent model years. It was created in 2012 in conjunction with the federal fuel economy and greenhouse gas rules, which may be weakened in Washington by the Trump administration over the next year. It could be the start of a clash between California and the federal government. California’s zero-emission vehicle regulation requires auto manufacturers to produce an increasing number of plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and fuel-cell electric vehicles. CARB also approved the South Coast Air Quality Management District’s comprehensive air quality plan.
              2. Keystone pipeline approved:  The U.S. State Department’s approval of the Keystone XL pipeline is expected to face a series of hurdles in states directly affected and which have yet to approve. President Donald Trump had committed to Canadian oil company TransCanada to lift the Obama administration’s ban on the pipeline. The 1,200-mile pipeline will transport heavy crude oil from tar sands mines in Canada to a second existing pipeline, which will deliver the crude oil to specialized refineries in Louisiana and other parts of the Gulf Coast. Environmental groups such as the Sierra Club are expected to file legal challenges to final approval and building of the pipeline.
              3. Tesla gets new investor:  Tesla Inc. reported that Chinese tech giant Tencent Holding has taken a 5% stake in the electric automaker for $1.78 billion. Tencent has been playing a role investing in U.S. and Chinese mobility startups in self-driving, electrified vehicles. The company has been best known for its WeChat mobile messaging app. Other EV-maker investments include NextEV, a Shangai-based startup which recently renamed itself Nio. That company has a Silicon Valley office not far from Tesla’s headquarters. Future Mobility is another Chinese startup Tencent has funded.
              4. Uber crash:  Uber is returning part of its autonomous test fleet to San Francisco after experiencing a collision Saturday that ended up grounding the fleet. Uber has been cleared from the accident in Tempe, Ariz., with police saying the crash occurred because a human-driven vehicle failed to yield to the autonomous Uber test vehicle. Uber’s test vehicles are able to travel autonomously, but the company keeps a human driver in the passenger seat ready to take over the car if necessary. Uber, as a company, continues to deal with a wave of bad news.
              5. Musk backs artificial intelligence venture:  Tesla CEO Elon Musk has taken on another passion: Neuralink. Musk is backing the startup venture that, as he says, will merge “biological intelligence and digital intelligence.” The business will be centered on creating devices that can be implanted in the human brain. The end game will be helping human minds partner with software and keep pace with advancement in artificial intelligence. Memory could be improved, and the capacity for human minds to interface with computing devices will be tested. The new system will explore how brain interfaces might alleviate the symptoms of dangerous and chronic medical conditions such as epilepsy and severe depressive disorder. Musk is excited about being part of the “neural lace,” which is a sci-fi term for a brain-computer interface humans could use to improve themselves. He’s been known for debating other entrepreneurs in the artificial intelligence community, which is tied into SpaceX, robotic manufacturing, autonomous vehicles, and other topics.
              6. New York EV incentives:  New York has set up an incentive program for purchasing electric vehicles that supports longer range, affordable cars. Only a few vehicles, like the Tesla Model 3 and the Chevy Bolt EV, will take advantage of the full $2,000 incentive. Requirements for the full incentive are selling electric cars with a range of over 120 miles and a price tag at less than $60,000. Expensive electric cars like the Tesla Model S and Model X, and the BMW i8, can only receive a $500 incentive.
              7. Aerovironment and eMotorWerks:  AeroVironment will be integrating eMotorWerks’ JuiceNet smart-grid electric vehicle charging platform into AeroVironment’s line of charging products. The worked relationship is aimed at helping consumers find increased charging capabilities utilities to assist in managing demand load aggregation. EV drivers will be able to tie in their smartphones, web, and Amazon Alexa voice control over charging. They’ll also be able to tap into other features like looking at real time and historic energy usage for charging and notifications of charging status and other resources for lowering their utility bills.
              8. ACT Expo keynoters:  The speaker lineup has been announced for ACT Expo 2017. Thom Shea, President and CEO of Adamantine Alliance, will share his experience on navigating through challenging times based on his experience as a highly decorated U.S. Navy SEAL, author, and leadership and human performance coach. With a number of policy and budget changes at the federal level, and the always present oil price roller coaster, the advanced technology and alternative fuels sectors face continued uncertainty and possible headwinds. Other speakers announced by ACT Expo include: Pete Melin, Director of Zero Emission Technology, Metro Transit of King County on managing a transit fleet integrating 120 battery electric buses into its operations; Kathryn Garcia, Commissioner, New York City Department of Sanitation on the world’s largest sanitation department testing DME and other efficiency measures; Sandra Berg, Vice Chair, California Air Resources Board on the agency’s role in advanced clean transportation policies; Kary Schaefer, General Manager, Marketing and Strategy, Daimler Trucks North America on leading the way in technology development for advanced clean trucking; Rob Neitzke, President, Cummins Westport on the company’s experience launching the game changing .02g NOx engine. Plus dozens more. See the full agenda and you can get a good look at the display vehicles.
              9. MUD chargers:  A new report by UCLA’s Luskin Center for Innovation identifies multi-unit dwellings (MUDs) that could be targeted for outreach as they exhibit high latent demand for plug-in electrified vehicles (PEVs) and low-cost installation of charging equipment. In order to reach California’s goal of 1.5 million zero emission vehicles by 2025, residents of apartments, condominiums and other MUDs need to be assured that they can charge their PEV at home, writes, Alex Turek, Project Manager, at Luskin Center.
              10. Cost of fuel economy standards:  International Council on Clean Transportation, an independent research group, released a report stating that automakers costs could be reduced by 34 percent to 40 percent per vehicle in the 2022 through 2025 phase of the federal fuel economy standards if enacted from what was approved in January by the Obama administration. Much of that is already happening with automakers utilizing new technologies like turbochargers and advanced transmissions, and lighter weight materials such as aluminum. ICCT has played a role in the Volkswagen diesel emissions scandal investigations, and worked closely with California Air Resources Board and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on the findings.

                Looking beyond the White House for strategic planning in clean transportation

                The Trump administration is keeping the president’s campaign promises supporting fossil fuels and pushing back on clean energy and efficient, clean transport. The State Department’s approval of the Keystone XL pipeline last week raised hackles further for many. Low-to-moderate gasoline and diesel prices aren’t helping make the business case for clean fuel and technologies, either.

                Breakthroughs in vehicle fuel efficiency and emissions reductions, clean fuel infrastructure, battery range, renewables, and electrified vehicles sales, are helping solidify the business case for policy and funding support; but, it isn’t the right time to gain broader support.

                Fleet operators and suppliers attending the Work Truck Show and Green Truck Summit recently in Indianapolis reported on mixed results for sales. Interest in alternative fuel trucks rose from 2011 through 2013, when fuel prices approached $4 a gallon nationally, but has stayed down since then. Customers are harder to see with payback on the investment taking longer. Perception of things changing in Washington also played into the mood.

                Some companies and fleets had good news to report. California-based Motiv Power Systems has been seeing an uptick for electric delivery trucks and school buses built on a Ford truck chassis. State-based incentive programs are taking the pressure off likely cuts in federal subsidies, the company said. California continues to be strong, and the New York and Chicago metro areas have paid off with similar purchase incentive programs in place. AmeriPride Services, a linen and uniform supply company, will bring 30 Motiv trucks to its fleet.

                Daimler AG’s Mitsubishi Fuso division said it will bring a new line of electric work trucks to North America this year. A lease program will be offered for its eCanter medium-duty electric truck. The company said it will also rollout a second generation model within two years. Fuso forecasts growing market demand for urban electric trucks as cities in Europe consider banning fossil-fuel trucks by 2030 through climate change policies; and pressure by cities to reduce congestion, pollution, and noise is helping grow demand.

                UPS, known for having the largest and most diverse alternative fuel fleet, announced it will spend $90 million to add six more CNG fueling stations and to purchase 390 CNG and 50 LNG trucks.

                Ohio-based Workhorse Group showed its all-electric pickup truck that will come to market next year. Recently, the company announced it has received Letters of Intent from fleets totaling 2,150 of the Workhorse W-15 electric pickups. Deals are being made with Duke Energy, Portland General Electric, the city of Orlando, Southern California Public Power Authority, Clean Fuels Ohio, and one other utility.

                Soon after the Work Truck Show, a port trucking company announced it will bring in low carbon natural gas engine trucks using Cummins Westport’s new ISX12 G natural gas engines. Total Transportation Services Inc., a large drayage trucking company serving the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, has started using one of the trucks to move cargo containers around the port complex.

                An 8.9-liter version of the Cummins Westport engine has been certified by the California Air Resources Board to produce 90 percent less NOx than permitted in diesel engines under the current guideline of 0.2 grams per horsepower-hour; a 12-liter variation is also expected to gain CARB approval. If run on renewable natural gas, heavy-duty trucks can reduce greenhouse gas methane emissions by 70%, the company said.

                On the passenger vehicle side, several auto analysts see Trump rolling back fuel economy mandates as having limited effect – with other market forces leading the way. Aggressive targets Europe and China will have more impact on the globalized auto industry than it would have had years ago. Strong and growing consumer expectations for increasing fuel efficient vehicles is another market dynamic that can’t be ignored, they say.

                California, Oregon, and eight states in the northeast, are following California’s zero emission vehicle mandates. Collectively, these states make up 30 percent of U.S. auto sales. Automakers have faced many years of resenting California’s rules going back to catalytic converters and the first gas stations with E-10 gasoline. Now they’re concerned over high targets being far ahead of consumer demand for all-electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell vehicles.

                Tangible growth in clean transportation and energy appear to need a combination of long-term strategic planning more common in Asia, and with technology innovations usually seen first in the U.S. and Europe. Automakers like Toyota and Honda are leading-edge in engine performance, efficiency, electronics, and alternative powertrains; but they tend to take a more conservative and gradual approach to rolling out zero emission vehicles and automated systems. That said, Toyota’s kaizen philosophy of “change for better” has influenced other global automakers and suppliers and brought improvements in quality, safety, and integrating its technologies with partners such as dashboard infotainment features.

                Luxury automakers are committing to roll out futuristic and electrified vehicles in large volumes much sooner, but they’ll need to gain sustained support from board members, shareholders, and customers. There is a great deal of concern about making electric vehicles more profitable.

                BMW’s “A new era has begun” video released last week says it all. Strategies are described for the company’s Vision Next 100 models from its BMW, Mini, Rolls-Royce, and BMW Motorrad motorcycle brands. The Motorrad Vision looks like it was designed for the next “Batman” movie; the three car models look like they won’t be released for a long time. Everything will be connected and automated, and most of them electrified.

                Commercial vehicle makers (heavy trucks, work trucks, vans, and buses) are in a similar spot, complying with stricter emissions standards and convincing buyers to reach a tipping point and make acquisitions taking longer to justify in return on investment.

                Europe and China emissions targets don’t appear to be lowering. EU headed there for years with concern over diesel with VW scandal pushing it over the edge. Daimler and BMW have taken on huge goals for sales with these markets being critical and Tesla’s presence and public awareness spreading globally.

                China is starting to cut back on manufacturer and car buyer subsidies, but the government stays committed to reducing emissions in the country. It’s plug-in vehicle sales boom is a sign of that, and China may take on a regulatory structure similar to California’s. While down at the beginning of the year with softening incentives, they seem to be going back up.

                Most of the experts speaking on industry panels, and writing white papers and policy on the issues, do see transformational technologies and mobility models moving along much faster than expected.

                The Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California-Davis just released survey results tied into the ITS-Davis’ new policy initiative, “Three Revolutions: Sharing, Electrification and Automation.” That report features a set of policy briefs written by transportation policy experts; and in-depth survey interviews with 40 experts on the subject from government and nonprofit organizations, and representatives from automakers and technology companies. About 70% think that by 2040, fully autonomous vehicles will make up more than 20% of vehicles sold in the U.S. Shared rides will go from 5% of all passenger miles by 2030 to more than 20% of miles driven by 2040, according to about 80% of the respondents.

                Most vehicles used by ridesharing and carsharing firms till be zero emission vehicles by 2050, about 70 of survey respondents said. That includes battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel-cell vehicles.

                “This survey shows us that without thoughtful collaboration and community-facing policies, these changes would lead to increased inequities, vehicle travel and greenhouse gas emissions. We need to be creative to steer these innovations to the public interest,” said ITS-Davis Director Dan Sperling.

                BMW outlined its experience in carsharing services in its new corporate sustainability report. The German automaker reported that more than 853,000 customers worldwide used the BMW Group’s carsharing services in 2016 – an increase of 45% compared with the year before. In Europe, BMW’s DriveNow fleet has more than 5,400 vehicles with all-electric i3s making up about 15% of the fleet. Around 190,000 customers have already driven approximately 6.5 million emission-free kilometers with the fleet’s electric BMW i3

                The European DriveNow fleet currently comprises more than 5,400 vehicles, of which 15.4% are pure electric BMW i3s. As of 31 Dec. 2016, DriveNow served around 607,000 customers in Germany and roughly 815,000 Europe-wide (2015: over 580,000 Europe-wide). DriveNow is one of the main driving forces for electro-mobility in Germany. Around 190,000 customers have already driven approximately 6.5 million emission-free kilometers (about 4.04 million miles) with the fleet’s electric BMW i3.

                  This Week’s Top 10: Trump cutting DOE grant funding, Ford launches electrified QVM program

                  by Jon LeSage, editor and publisher, Green Auto Market

                  Here’s my take on the 10 most significant and interesting occurrences during the past week…….

                  1. Federal funds cut:  If the Trump administration’s 2018 proposed budget passes in Congress, two important federal funding programs for green vehicles and cleantech will go away. The proposal would eliminate the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Technology Vehicle Manufacturing Loan Program (ATVM) and Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E). To absorb Trump’s proposed $54-billion increase in defense spending, big cuts will be made to other federal agencies. These two Department of Energy funding programs have been able to tap into DOE-sponsored university programs and public/private alliances with vehicle makers and tech suppliers. The first-ever mass market electric vehicles in the U.S. – the Chevy Volt, Nissan Leaf, and Tesla Model S, had benefited from federal backing.
                  2. Ford eQVM program: Ford is adding OEMs in electrified vehicles to the Advanced Fuel Qualified Vehicle Modifier (QVM) program. These vehicle modifiers and upfitters develop and install electrified and hydraulic hybrid powertrains for Ford trucks and vans. The eQVM program kicks off with three developers – XL Hybrids, Motiv Power Systems and Lightning Hybrids. These companies offer electrification or hydraulic hybrid solutions for a range of Ford vehicles popular with fleet and commercial customers, including F-150, F-250 to F-550 Super Duty, F-650 and F-750 medium-duty trucks, Transit and E-Series vans and chassis, and F-53/F-59 stripped chassis.
                  3. Uber upheaval: Jeff Jones, the president of Uber, is quitting the ridesharing company after only being there about six months. The move by the No. 2 exec, sources say, is directly related to the multiple controversies there, including charges of sexual harassment. Uber’s list of controversies is long and complicated, including the Waymo lawsuit on Uber stealing its technology for self-driving cars. The company said it plans to review and commit to diversity goals and publish results from a sexual harassment investigation over the coming weeks. Arianna Huffington, a company board member, said a probe into the company’s culture and harassment claims is likely to be completed by the end of March. Huffington will help oversee the investigation along with Eric Holder, the former U.S. attorney general.
                  4. VW MEB product launches:  Volkswagen is preparing to launch its first all-electric I.D. car in 2020 on the new MEB modular electric platform. The company is concerned that increasingly strict emissions rules in China and Europe will need to be taken very seriously. VW brand CEO Herbert Diess told analysts last week that the I.D. concept hatchback shown at the Paris auto show last year is expected to have its design approved in August for the 2020 launch; followed by an electric SUV coming out after 2020, with a concept being revealed next month at the Shanghai motor show. The I.D. Buzz minibus concept previewed at the Detroit auto show in will be the third EV and should come out in 2022. China will play the most important role for VW meetings its ambitious EV sales target over the next decade.
                  5. Lucid Air pricing:  Lucid Motors has revealed the pricing of Lucid Air, the company’s all-electric supercar that was unveiled in December. Lucid says it will charge $60,000 for a 400-horsepower, rear-wheel drive version of the sedan, which will have 240 miles of range. The company is currently taking $2,500 reservation down payments; the car is scheduled to begin shipments in 2019.
                  6. VW settlement:  Volkswagen’s Electrify America subsidiary will be installing 320 kW fast chargers in California as part of the $2 billion settlement from the diesel emissions scandal. The chargers will not be proprietary to VW and will use Combined Charging Systems, CHAdeMO, and open protocols like Open Charge Point Protocol (OCPP) in the chargers being placed. In total, the company plans to install between 2,000‐3,000 chargers (mostly Level 2 and 50 kW DC chargers) at 400 or more individual stations.
                  7. NextEV finds another backer:  Chinese search engine giant Baidu will be investing about $600 million in Chinese startup NextEV. NextEV already has the backing of tech giant Tencent Holdings and Hillhouse Capital. The startup launched the world’s fastest electric car, the Nio, at a bay area event. Both NextEV and Baidu have licenses to test out there self-driving cars in California, so electrified autonomous vehicles should be part of the alliance.
                  8. NGVs in Europe:  European Alternative Fuels Observatory released a special edition report on the natural gas vehicels in that market. This edition is dedicated to the use of natural gas vehicles in Europe. Some facts about the NGV market in. The latest figures show that there are about 1.3 million NGVs in Europe. They fuel up at more than 3,600 CNG stations in Europe with the top five infrastructure countries being Italy, Germany, Sweden, Netherlands, and Austria. There are more than 50 different models of CNG and LNG vehicles available in Europe. NGVs are years ahead in Europe as these vehicles and fuel played an important role in several decimated countries like Italy recovering from World War II.
                  9. Goodbye Model S 60: Tesla’s Model S 60 will go away after April 16 orders as Tesla cuts out the least popular, and least expensive, electric motor and battery pack option. The cheapest option will be the S 75 and the starting price will go from $71,300 to $77,800. There will be a wider gap between those looking for the cheaper Model 3 and pricey Model S and Model X.
                  10. Hydrogen station webinar:  Today at 12 noon (PST), you can join the California Fuel Cell Partnership for a brown-bag webinar update about hydrogen station network development in California. This webinar will provide general, non-technical overview about: retail fueling network development status; next retail stations ready to come online; proposed CEC funding of 16 additional stations; and SOSS system updates​. To participate from 12 noo to 1:00 pm PST, register here. You can also participate in a Q&A after the presentations.

                    What’s next for fuel economy and emissions mandates: Who’s fighting the fight

                    President Donald Trump’s statement on Wednesday reopened the fuel economy and emissions midterm review through the next year, possibly up to the original deadline of April 2018. It’s expected that the Trump administration will weaken the mandate, which when set in 2012, was to double average fleetwide fuel economy to 54.5 mpg by 2025. That mandate was actually based on real-world window sticker average mpg in the high-30s when factoring in automakers’ ability to trade credits and other factors that go into the corporate average fuel economy numbers. The midterm review was included in the 2012 negotiations, with automakers pushing to take a look at how the 2022-25 phase-two period would be going.

                    The Obama administration and Environmental Protection Agency’s decision in January to finalize the rules before Trump took office intensified the conflict. Automakers had begun lobbying Trump right after he won the election to extend the review and soften the mandate; and organizations that had advocated for the fuel economy standard and its enforcement issued statements supporting the Obama administration’s move.

                    Here’s a look at the roles that several parties to the matter are expected to play:

                    Automakers: Ford, General Motors, Toyota, and Volkswagen have led the argument that the numbers aren’t there. Low gasoline prices have supported record demand for SUVs, crossovers, and pickups and dragged on demand for hybrids and small, fuel-efficient vehicles. Plug-in electrified vehicle sales have grown to about 1% of the total market, but the growth rate over the past year isn’t helping on the fuel economy front. In Michigan last week, Trump met with the CEOs of GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, and top U.S. executives from Toyota, Nissan, Daimler, others.

                    Mitch Bainwol, chief executive of the Auto Alliance, which represents 12 major automakers, including GM, Ford and Toyota, applauded the Trump administration’s decision last week. “We applaud the Administration’s decision to reinstate the data-driven review of the 2022-2025 standards. By restarting this review, analysis rather than politics will produce a final decision consistent with the process we all agreed to under ‘One National Program’ for GHG and fuel economy standards,” Bainwol said.

                    He said the industry will work with the EPA, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and the California Air Resources Board “in carefully determining how we can improve mileage and reduce carbon emissions while preserving vehicle safety, auto jobs and affordable new cars and trucks.”

                    Truckmakers:  In August, the EPA issued phase-two standards to reduce greenhouse gas emissions coming from commercial trucks, buses, and vans, in three phases by 2027. The regulation is intended to cut carbon emissions by about 25% compared to the current rules. The trucking industry has not asked the Trump administration to reverse those rules, according to Sean McNally, spokesman for the American Trucking Associations.

                    Legislators: As expected, this decision continues to be more of a Republicans vs. Democrats debate. Republicans support the Trump administration’s decision, and like his argument on supporting American automakers grow their companies and create more jobs here. “We’re going to work on the CAFE standards so you can make cars in America again,” Trump said. “We’re gonna help the companies and they’re gonna help you.”

                    U.S. Senator Edward Markey (D.-Mass.) has been a vocal critic of the move. The action will lead to needless uncertainly for the auto industry, and consumers will end up having to pay more at the fuel pump, he said. He and other Democratic senators criticized the EPA emissions review before it had been issued. Senator Jeff Merkley said that its bad for the economy, environment and middle class families.

                    Consumer groups: In late February, Consumers Union (which publishes Consumer Reports) and the Consumer Federation of America sent a letter to Trump asking the administration to maintain the strong fuel economy standards – to help to lower fuel costs for middle class families across the country, support job creation and innovation, and improve air quality. Consumers Union’s research shows that consumers will have net savings of $3,200 per car and $4,800 per truck, over the life of a vehicle that meet the 2025 standards, even at today’s low gas prices. If gas prices rise, which two organizations expect they will, the savings would be significantly higher. Consumers will have more money to spend in other parts of the economy.

                    The two consumer organizations also make the case that automakers are already ahead of the standards through developing innovative, fuel-efficient technologies. “Thanks to fuel economy standards, the automakers have invested in innovative technologies to improve fuel economy, and their efforts have paid off. Automakers have not only met today’s fuel economy standards, but they have exceeded the standards in many cases, all while enjoying record profits and record sales,” the letter said.

                    Environmental groups:  These groups see the announcement as part of a larger move by the Trump administration to overturn the Obama administration’s policies on climate change, and disregard for long-term air pollution standards like the Clean Air Act. Environmentalists have vowed to sue if the Trump administration weakens the rules, which they expect to happen.

                    Natural Resources Defense Council thinks it makes no sense, since the mileage standards would save consumers money at the gas pump, make the U.S. less dependent on oil, reduce carbon pollution, and advance technology innovation. It was also one of the ways GM was able to go from bankruptcy and return to financial strength.

                    The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy said that the Trump administration’s move was a bad one. Best known for its “Greenest and Meanest” awards, the organization usually stays out of public policy. This time, the ACEEE released findings from its study: it would reduce fuel consumption more than two million barrels of oil by day by 2025; eliminate six billion tons of greenhouse gas emissions over the lifetimes of vehicles of model years 2012-2025; and would save consumers over $1 trillion at the gas pump.

                    California:  Trump didn’t mention California’s role in the future of the national standards. He won’t seek to revoke California’s clean car rules and zero emission vehicle mandate, according to a White House official. However, the official didn’t rule out the administration seeking to withdraw California’s authority on the matter in the future. Nine states and the District of Columbia have adopted its zero-emissions vehicle mandate, which uses a credit system that will require automakers to sell about 1.5 million passenger by 2025. These include battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell vehicles.

                    Governor Jerry Grown and California Air Resources Board chair Mary Nichols have made strong statements that California will move forward on ZEV mandates regardless of what the federal government decides to do. They are taking things seriously, though. The state has hired former Attorney General Eric Holder in anticipation of legal challenges, according to the Sacramento Bee.

                    Market dynamics:  Automakers and advocates of clean vehicles have for years been debating the structure behind the federal mandates. Under the rules, automakers have to hit fuel economy standards for manufacturing fuel efficient vehicles, but will enough of them be sold to meet the fuel economy and emissions targets?

                    That debate brings up the commonly cited conundrum of which economic side has to lead the way: supply or demand? It could bring up the “If you build it, he will come” line to call in Shoeless Joe Jackson during the Field of Dreams movie. Or, what comes first, the chicken or the egg? Or, putting the cart before the horse.

                    On the consumer side, the U.S. has seen hybrid sales soften and stagnate, but PEV sales increase at a faster pace than hybrids did 15 years ago. That’s been driven by passionate Tesla fans, PEV advocates well represented by groups like Plug In America, and consumers who like to lead the way as one of the first to adopt new technologies, and others who like the deals they’re getting through incentives and fuel savings.

                    Fleets will be playing an increasing important part of the PEV sales drive. Beyond a few major fleets like UPS, most had taken a very hesitant approach to electrified cars and trucks. That will be getting a major boost by the campaign taken on by 30 U.S. cities, led by Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, to get good deals from automakers. They have about $10 billion in acquisition funds for about 114,000 PEVs for their city fleets. These could go to vehicles like police patrol cars, street sweepers, trash trucks, and other applications. Buying that many PEVs would increase the segments U.S. sales by about 72%.

                    Market forecasters see PEV and hybrid sales staying at about this level for now. However, that’s expected to increase dramatically in the near future, with one noted analyst expecting to see PEVs and hybrids making up 10% to 15% of total U.S. sales in the next 10 years. State incentives and federal tax credits play into it, along with extended range, improved performance PEVs coming to market. Ford said it will bring an all-electric SUV with 300-miles of range to market by 2020, GM started doing well selling the 238-mile range Chevy Bolt; Nissan has said a new generation Leaf with 200 mile range will be rolled out; and in January Tesla started making batteries at its Gigafactory for the Model 3 to roll out later this year.

                    China:  That country has been another important market for global automakers to consider for its PEV sales strategy. The numbers have been huge in recent years as China beat out the U.S. as the leading global PEV market. Government policies are starting to change, which appear to be softening that lead. Sales of “new energy vehicles,” the term China uses to refer to battery-electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids and fuel-cell cars, dropped 74% in January from a year earlier to 5,682 units, according to China’s auto association. The government had cut subsidies more than a fight at the beginning of the year. Rules may be revised that had mandated automakers to produce and sell certain volumes of PEVs in the market.