clean transportation Archives

This Week’s Top 10: Keynote speakers announced for ACT Expo, Nissan Leaf takes narrow lead on Tesla Model S in February sales

by Jon LeSage, editor and publisher, Green Auto Market

Here’s my take on the 10 most significant and interesting occurrences during the past week…….

Keynote speakers announced for ACT Expo: Gladstein, Neadross and Associates, organizers of the Alternative Clean Transportation (ACT) Expo, announced the speaker lineup for the 2015 conference to be held May 4-7 in Dallas. Keynote presentations will be made by Gregg Rogen, SVP, productivity and sustainability, Frito-Lay; and David Steiner, president and CEO, Waste Management. Frito-Lay in its fleet has nearly 300 electric trucks, more than 200 CNG-powered trucks, more than 650 hybrids, and a growing number of propane autogas and biodiesel vehicles. Waste Management operates the largest fleet of heavy-duty trucks in North America, and Steiner will talk about the company’s investment in alternative fuels and infrastructure. Other speakers during the conference include Boone Pickens, founder, chairman and CEO, BP Capital; Mike Whitlatch, vice president, global energy and procurement, UPS; Elizabeth Fretheim, director of logistics sustainability, Walmart; and Drew Cullen, senior vice president of fuels and facilities services, Penske Truck Leasing. View the event’s full agenda here.
February plug-in sales. The Nissan Leaf took a narrow lead over the Tesla Model S in February’s US market sales – 1,198 for the Leaf versus 1,150 for Model S. Coming in at third was the BMW i3 with 1,089 units sold. The Chevrolet Volt continues to follow farther behind the Leaf and Model S with 693 units sold. Consumers might be looking forward to the all-new 2016 Volt coming out later this year. Overall US plug-in sales were down 80 units from January and February 2014.
Oregon testing road-usage program. Oregon and several other states are worried about losing tax revenue due to more plug-in electric and fuel-efficient vehicles entering their roads. So, Oregon is starting a test program staring July 1 where 50,000 registered vehicle owners will participate. Participating drivers will still pay the gas tax at the pump, but at the end of each month, mileage and fuel-consumption data from on-board diagnostics will be used to compare gas tax with a 1.5 cent-per-mile tax that would be charged under a road-usage charge. More than 10 states are in the process of drafting legislation for similar programs or test projects.
Volkswagen AG is working hard at becoming the top vehicle seller in the world and the industry’s technology leader, CEO Martin Winkertorn said during a Geneva Motor Show news conference. The automaker is debuting the Sport Coupe Concept GTE at the show as an example of technology innovation. The sports coupe has a plug-in hybrid drive system that pairs a 3.0-liter V-6 with two electric motors. In the European test cycle, the car gets a 118 mpg fuel economy rating.
California approves DME as a vehicle fuel. California’s Division of Measurement Standard’s issued a formal approval to Oberon Fuels for its dimethyl ether (DME) as a vehicle fuel, which will help with the fuel’s commercialization. “The State of California’s approval builds upon the growing body of certifications that demonstrate DME is a low carbon fuel that meets both industry standards for performance and environmental standards for compliance,” Oberon Fuels president Rebecca Boudreaux said.
Kia pleased with Soul EV sales. Stronger-than-expected customer interest has inspired Kia to accelerate its roll-out plan. It’s the first electric car Kia has sold outside of Korea, and wants to make sure its suppliers, distributors, and dealers are ready in the US. The Soul EV first went on sale in October in California, with plans to expand to Oregon and a few East Coast markets later. The company hopes to announce a plan in April that will include wider availability than had been originally planned.
Audi reveals plug-in offerings: Audi, which previously had only offered a plug-in hybrid option for its A3 compact car, now has two more plug-ins coming up. Audi will offer its Q7 sport-utility vehicle with two plug-in hybrid powertrains: a diesel option for Europe and a gasoline version for the U.S. and China. Audi has also announced that it will offer a battery electric version of its newly redesigned sports car, the R8 e-tron. The sports car will be able to travel about 280 miles on a single charge.
More clean fleet vehicles: Four vehicle roll-outs sound good for fleets interested in bringing in more alt-fuel vehicles. Motiv Power Systems is launching a battery electric drive compatible with the Ford F59 chassis and has received an initial order for six vehicles for AmeriPride in Fresno, Calif. BioCNG will be upgrading a landfill gas-based compressed natural gas fueling station for the St. Landry Parish Solid Disposal District in Louisiana; and will be adding a second facility at the District’s recycling center in Opelousas. Coca-Cola has converted 39 GM Express vans to hybrid electrics using XL3 systems from XL Hybrids. It’s tied into an executive order last year by the California Air Resources Board and brings Coke’s total number of XL Hybrid-fitted vans up to 211. Efficient Drivetrains, Inc. (EDI) has announced the availability of a Class 3 utility plug-in hybrid truck. EDI says that it features an extended range of 300 miles and 50-to-120 kW of grid reliable export power.
Two 350Green executives face fraud charges. Mariana Gerzanych and Timothy Mason – the two former top ranking executives of electric vehicle charging station supplier 350Green – have been accused in a federal court of falsely obtaining almost $3 million in grant money for a project, The Chicago Tribune reported. 350Green had been working with the city of Chicago to install its charging network. Gerzanych and Mason have been charged with obtaining funds by falsely claiming they’d paid subcontractors and vendors for work on the charging stations.
Tesla cutting jobs in China. Tesla Motors Inc. may be reducing its staff by 30% in China as it makes structural changes in the market. The Chinese newspaper Economic Observer reported Tesla will eliminate 180 of the 600 positions in China because sales haven’t met expectations.

California cap and trade sees $1 billion in carbon credits after vehicle tailpipe emissions were added

California’s cap-and-trade program, which began quarterly auction sales in late 2012, hit a benchmark last month. Companies invested $1.02 billion in carbon emissions credits, the largest auction event since it all started. Analysts think that had to do with the state significantly increasing the pool of credits available for sale to meet the 2015 addition of motor vehicle tailpipe emissions into the cap-and-trade program.

The cap-and-trade auctions have become a central aspect of the state’s AB 32 climate change law enacted in 2006. Under the state’s regulatory structure, large polluters buy carbon credits that come from businesses generating surplus allowances. Collected funds from the auctions go toward other emission-reducing endeavors, including sustainable energy projects and rebates for electric vehicles and solar panels. While China and the US are working on an agreement to mutually reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, their governments and those of states across the country and other nations around the world, are tracking how well California’s program may reduce carbon emissions.

In its earliest phase, the state’s cap-and-trade system affected other industries beyond oil companies. The state doesn’t disclose which companies made allowance transactions during the quarterly auctions, but its list of qualified bidders includes Chevron USA, BP Energy Co., and Exxon Mobil Corp. Oil companies, refineries, and retail gas station owners, have warned that adding transportation fuel to the state program will be increasing the price at least 10 cents a gallon. Low gas prices have taken some of the weight out of that argument, but California officials have taken the warning seriously. The California Air Resources Board, which oversees the auctions, dramatically increased the volume of available credits. Credit prices did stay steady with that volume increase – participants paid $12.21 per credit for the right to emit carbon this year, which was similar to prices paid at previous auctions.

Environmentalists, such as a representative from the Environmental Defense Fund, think the market is functioning properly. Oil companies are not as pleased with the regulatory structure that comes from AB 32. In addition the cap and trade, the state has enacted the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) that calls for a reduction of at least 10% in the carbon intensity of California’s transportation fuels by 2020. Last month, the California Air Resources Board held a hearing on whether the regulation is working out. A decision is expected to be released this spring or summer. Environmentalists and alternative fuel producers argued that the state should stay its course; oil industry representatives disagreed.

Nick Economides, manager of state fuels regulation at Chevron Corp., said the state’s mandate relies heavily on the development of alternative fuels, many of which haven’t yet panned out. He joined up with other oil industry executives who argued that the LCFS needs to be adjusted. “We have invested heavily (in alternative fuels) and regretfully, we have not been successful,” Economides said.

Others make the argument that oil companies are not taking alternative fuels seriously at all – investments in biofuels, hydrogen, and other alternative energies are being done to “look good” with regulators and the general public, but are only being addressed at superficial levels. Similar arguments are made by electric vehicle advocates who talk about investments made in the past 30 years by major automakers for electric drive and other clean technologies – only to see these projects gathering mothballs.

This Week’s Top 10: Clean Cities announces research resources, Tesla Model S and Toyota Prius take Consumer Reports awards

by Jon LeSage, editor and publisher, Green Auto Market

Here’s my take on the 10 most significant and interesting occurrences during the past week…….

The US Dept. of Energy’s Clean Cities has issued several research resources for stakeholders in the past week. The Clean Cities 2015 Vehicle Buyer’s Guide offers vehicle selection, pricing, infrastructure, and emissions information on a wide selection of alternative fuel vehicles. Categories include propane, compressed natural gas, biodiesel, plug-in electric, plug-in hybrid electric, hybrid electric, and ethanol flex-fuel. Clean Cities also said that it’s moving forward on its request for information (RFI) project announced in November on purchasing and procurement for bulk vehicle orders. The RFI is soliciting feedback from industry, academia, research laboratories, government agencies, and other stakeholders on issues related to purchasing/procurement processes designed to coordinate and consolidate bulk alternative fuel vehicle, advanced vehicle orders, and vehicle subsystems. Responses are due no later than 5:00 pm eastern time on March 13, 2015. This announcement was coordinated with a public meeting for Clean Cities stakeholders to collect input in a new Clean Cities five-year strategic plan. Clean Cities encourages stakeholders to continue to give written comments through its Strategic Planning Meeting website until March 13.
The Tesla Model S and Toyota Prius take best of awards from Consumer Reports. For the second year in a row, the Model S has taken the “best overall” category for its “innovation, magnificence, and sheer technological arrogance.” The testing team likes the fact that Tesla’s over-the-air software updates keep the 2013 model up to date with many of the same features as the new models. The Toyota Prius took the “green car” category again, which has been the case consecutively since 2004. Testers haven’t been that impressed with ride comfort, cornering, and interior, but the affordability, fuel economy, packaging and “blue-chip reliability” make it the “perfect economical transportation solution.” Rating indicators for all Consumer Reports categories are based on overall road-test performance, reliability, and safety.
AltCar has announced dates for its two 2015 events. For the Northern California event, the City of Oakland AltCar Conference & Expo will be held May 28. The 10^th anniversary of the City of Santa Monica’s AltCar Expo will take place on Sept. 18-19. For participation, you can contact Platia Productions at (310) 390-2930, ext. 3.
Toyota started production of Mirai fuel cell sedan at its Motomachi Plant in Toyota City, Japan. The fuel cell car can travel 400 miles on a fueling and has been very important in Toyota’s green vehicle strategy; however, the production numbers are limited to 700 units this year, 2,000 in 2016, and 3,000 in 2017.
Daimler joins other automakers selling in the European market by implementing more material cost efficiencies to meet stringent European Union emissions targets. Daimler Chief Financial Officer Bodo Uebber says that in 2014, the automaker offset the burdens from the variable cost for its carbon reducing measures with material cost efficiencies such as sharing more commonality among its different car lines. Uebber expects to do the same this year through at least 2017.
The Propane Education & Research Council (PERC) is funding $600,000 to Icom North America to support development of its propane autogas technology in the Ford 3.5L EcoBoost engine. That should assist Icom receiving both US Environmental Protection Agency and California Air Resources Board certifications for the 3.5L EcoBoost platform. Icom’s JTGhp direct-injection system can be applied to the Ford F-150, Explorer, and Taurus vehicle platforms. PERC also announced last week that it will be displaying at the NTEA Work Truck Show in Indianapolis. Fleet managers are invited to interact with PERC’s dimensional displays for calculating lifetime operating costs, and seeing cost savings that comes from using propane autogas.
Volvo Cars is joining the autonomous vehicle test driving movement by placing 100 self-driving cars on Gothenburg, Sweden streets by 2017. Local residents will be using these autonomous Volvo XC90 crossover test vehicles commuting to work on a controlled 31-mile route. That test is expected to run through the spring of 2019 and will use sensors, cloud-based positioning systems, intelligent braking, and steering technologies through a new Volvo autopilot system.
Texas state grants had pretty good return on investment with grants issued to natural gas vehicles (NGVs), according to a study by the University of Texas San Antonio’s Institute for Economic Development. Three state grants, totaling $52.9 million, supported construction of new natural gas fueling stations and the adoption of NGVs. That generated $128 million in economic impact, $52.9 million in gross state product, and supported 927 full-time jobs in 2014. The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality administered the three grants that went out to the Clean Transportation Triangle, the Alternative Fueling Facilities Program, and the Texas Natural Gas Vehicle Program.
As biofuel supporters wait for the US Environmental Protection Agency to get around to announcing its 2014 volume standards, another action was taken in Washington. A bill introduced last week by Senators Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) and Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) would repeal the corn ethanol mandate in the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). Feinstein is especially concerned about corn prices increasing if that mandate continues. They’re misunderstanding the facts, according to Bob Dinneen, president of the Renewable Fuels Association. “Corn is less expensive today than when the RFS was passed,” Dinneen said.
Solar power will see substantial growth in 2015, according to a new study by GTM Research. Solar installations will grow in 75% of US states, with incremental growth in Arizona and Massachusetts but significant growth in Georgia and Utah.

This Week’s Top 10: Nissan sees Leaf sales slip, Bryant Gumbel and Katie Couric are perplexed by how the BMW i3 works

by Jon LeSage, editor and publisher, Green Auto Market

Here’s my take on the 10 most significant and interesting occurrences during the past week…….

Plug-in sales: There’s been a wide range of estimates on Tesla Model S sales in the month of January, but they’re all ahead of what Nissan reported for the Leaf. Whether those Model S numbers might have been 1,100 units sold, 1,300, or 1,500, they’re all higher than 1,070 Nissan Leafs that were confirmed as being sold. The Leaf was down 14.5% from January 2014, ending a 23 month cycle of sales increases. The Chevrolet Volt was way down from a year ago – 41%. That likely had something to do with the refreshed model coming out later this year. com reported that plug-in hybrid sales were down 45.4% from December and down 28% from January 2014; battery electric vehicles were down 46.4% from December and were up 33.9% over January 2014.
Boy, things have changed. A TV commercial for the BMW i3 shows NBC reporters Bryant Gumbel and Katie Couric in 1994 discussing this “newfangled” internet thing. Fast forward to 2015, Gumbel and Couric are now confused about riding in a car with no engine with its power somehow coming from a wind turbine. It was one of the TV ads shown during the Super Bowl game on Feb. 1.
General Motors will begin building a production version of its Chevrolet Bolt battery-electric concept vehicle in October 2016, according to inside sources. That will put GM into direct competition with California EV start-up Tesla Motors, Nissan, and BMW. GM’s production target for the Bolt is about 25,000 to 30,000 cars a year.
CALSTART hosted its annual Low-Carbon Fuel Summit in Sacramento on Feb. 3. More than 150 people attended, representing the state legislature, clean fuels producers, and consumers. Low gasoline prices held a lot of attention during discussions, along with the California Air Resources Board’s low-carbon fuel standard.
Google may be going after Uber’s ridesharing market with its self-driving car technology. Uber executives have seen screenshots of what appears to be a Google ridesharing app that is currently being used by Google employees. Google’s venture capital division, Google Ventures, had invested $258 in Uber in August 2013.
The Obama administration may turn the federal tax credit for electric vehicles into a rebate program as part of its proposed budget. That idea was first put out by the administration in 2011, but it’s taken a while to gain enough Congressional support. That $7,500 tax credit could be turned into a $10,000 rebate if enough support is gained.
University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute reported that average fuel economy of light vehicles purchased in the U.S. improved last month for the first time since August, increasing 0.3 mpg and coming in at 25.4 mpg. January’s 0.5 jump from a year earlier marks the 12th consecutive month that average fuel economy has been above 25. Average fuel economy is up 5.3 mpg from October 2007, according to the report.
Oklahoma-based organization Alternative Fuels Technology Center is now offering online courses for training on alternative fuel vehicles. The courses are self-paced and take between two to three weeks to complete. Available online courses include: CNG Vehicle Code; CNG Compressor Operator Safety and Code; LPG Vehicle Code; and Introduction to Hybrid Vehicles.
Natural gas fuel-storage company Agility Fuel Systems and Clean Energy Fuels have announced a joint compressed natural gas (CNG) fuel system sales program to reduce the incremental cost of heavy-duty natural gas trucks. Under the program, Agility and Clean Energy will work with trucking customers and offer CNG fuel systems installed at a substantially reduced cost when there is a natural gas fueling agreement.
The Mercedes-Benz C350e plug-in hybrid is launching in Germany this month with a price tag of $57,645, a fuel economy rating of 112 MPGe (though not by US EPA standards), and an optional wagon version.

West coast ports face labor union shutdown, congestion, and more air pollution

If you live anywhere near the Ports of Long Beach or Los Angeles – or any of the 29 west coast ports – you might notice that the cargo ships appear to be backed up farther down the coastline than usual. While the global economy is getting better, that extension of ships has more to do with bitter contract negotiations over the past nine months. It was backed up even more this past weekend after a shutdown by port operators.

The International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) says that employers are not managing the supply chain efficiently; the Pacific Maritime Association, which represents shippers and terminal operators, says that union works have intentionally been slowing their work speed by about 50% to put pressure on management to settle the contract. Pacific Maritime Association put out a “best offer” proposal on Feb. 4 and is waiting for the union to respond.

Union members have been offered a 3% wage increase, 11% higher pension benefits and no pressure to make concessions on the contract. For workers in the region, it’s usually the highest paying job out there. Longshore workers are now approaching $150,000 in annual wages and pensions that average $80,000 a year. There is a price for living that life – injuries can be severe for ILWU members, air quality can cause respiratory health problems, and the traffic congestion in and around the ports has been getting worse.

Port of Long Beach Chief Executive Jon Slangerup said during his State of the Port address on January 29 that congestion is becoming a serious problem at the port. It goes back to about 18 months ago when ocean carrier lines formed alliances combining their cargo ships. These ocean carriers got out of the truck trailer chassis side of the business; three local leasing companies took on the work but didn’t have large enough fleets to cope with increasing demand from these massive vessel carriers. Storing containers and getting them to trucks and trains became more complicated and dragged out as well.

The Port of Long Beach has been in discussions with the unions and the Port of Los Angeles on finding solutions to these gridlock problems. Capital investments are underway such as the Middle Harbor Redevelopment Project and the Gerald Desmond Bridge Replacement Project have been underway, and Slangerup expects them to generate about 5,000 construction jobs over the next few years.

The ports have been considering other capital investments in recent years, including one that would efficiently stack cargo containers and load them onto railroad cars that would deliver them to trucks near downtown Los Angeles. That proposal has been based on air pollution and traffic congestion building up on the I-710 and I-110 freeways. There’s also been the I-710 Corridor Project that’s expected to start up in the next five years. That 12-mile project is still seeking buy-in from cities along that stretch of the freeway and government agencies overseeing the region. The concept is to launch the corridor project in 2020 and complete it in 2030; it’s expected to create 500,000 project jobs and to help reduce harmful emissions.

The Port of Long Beach last night celebrated the 10 year anniversary of its Green Port Policy – which has been embraced and replicated by other ports around the world; the board voted to continue supporting the Green Port Policy through its next phase. The Port of Long Beach has invested more than $500 million to reduce the port’s environmental impact and meet ambitious goals improving air, water, soil and sediments, wildlife, sustainability, and community engagement. Slangerup emphasized the goal of making Long Beach the world’s first zero emission port. Much of that is coming through what the port calls “Energy Island,” a fully self-sustained energy grid powered by solar, wind, fuel cells, natural gas, and potentially with other technologies currently in development.

Trucking has been a big part of the Green Port Policy for the second largest source of air pollution after cargo ships. The Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles enacted their Clean Trucks programs that have brought the trucking fleets up to newer, cleaner diesel engines and reduced air pollution 80% compared to older truck models. Both ports are supporting test projects for port drayage trucks and other vehicles – such as battery electric trucks.

There’s much hope out there for peaceful settlement of the union contracts, and relief from congestion in the ports and nearby areas. The next 20 years will see several ambitious projects enacted to deal with these challenges and the health risks from increasing air pollution. The opportunities are there for all port stakeholders willing to take them on.

Greenest of the green cars by fuel economy, emissions, sales, and overall value

Last week, the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) released its 18th annual comprehensive environmental ratings for vehicles. As you can view in this list of the 12 Greenest cars in 2015, battery electric vehicles did the best, taking the top three spots. The Smart ForTwo Electric Drive took No. 1 for the second year in a row, this year taking the highest Green Score ever. Plug-in electric vehicles took six out of 12 places on this year’s list. The Toyota Prius did well this year with its Prius C taking 4^th place and the Prius liftback, and Prius Plug-in jointly took No. 6. The Nissan Leaf finished in fifth place.

ACEEE assigns each vehicle a Green Score that incorporates lifecycle greenhouse gas and criteria pollutant emissions. The announcement of this year’s winner coincides with the release of ACEEE’s brand new greenercars.org website that will now offer subscription-free access to all vehicle scores from model year 2000 and later. Another new feature this year is analysis of where the electricity powering the electric vehicle comes from. “A car that is charged using electricity generated from natural gas or renewables is going to have significantly less impact on the environment than one charged on a coal-heavy grid,” said ACEEE lead vehicle analyst Shruti Vaidyanathan.

ACEEE also looks at the other end of the spectrum – acknowledging vehicles that are the least friendly to the environment. Number one on this year’s list is the Dodge Ram 2500 (Class 2b), followed by the Chevrolet/GMC G2500 Express/Savana cargo conversion vans.

Looking at the selection of “greenest of the green car” awards released around this time of the year begs the questions: What is a green car? What makes it the best? Overall, the BMW i3, Nissan Leaf, and Volkswagen models performed very well in the rankings.

Fuel economy is one that always comes up in consumer polls, fleet acquisitions, and government rating systems. Take a look here at Fueleconomy.gov’s Top Ten EPA-Rated Fuel Sippers (2015); these are based on fuel economy measured in miles per gallon equivalent (MPGe) for electric vehicles where 33.7 kilowatt hours is equal to one gallon of gasoline. The combined rating is weighted at 55% city and 45% highway driving.

The 2015 BMW i3 is having a very good year – taking the top spot in the Fueleconomy.gov rating, Kelley Blue Book’s (KBB) Green Car of the Year for 2014, and winning the 2015 Green Car of the Year award at the LA Auto Show.

Volkswagen has seen positive results as well, with the Golf product lineup taking Green Car Reports’ Best Car to Buy for 2015. The compact five-door Golf, now in its seventh generation, is both lighter and more spacious inside. The Volkswagen e-Golf, the German automaker’s first-ever all-electric car and zero-emission vehicle, also helped bump it up on the list. The Volkswagen Jetta Diesel and Passat Diesel were among the top 10 best-selling green vehicles in the US last year.

The Nissan Leaf didn’t take any of the top spots this year, but finished well in the top 10 on several lists. It was the top-selling electric car in the US during 2014, whether or not the Tesla Model S started stealing the thunder. As you can see on this top 10 list of 2014’s best-selling hybrids, electric vehicles, and clean diesel cars, the Leaf isn’t selling anywhere near the volume of the Toyota Prius liftback (the non-plug-in hybrid version of the Prius), but it is far ahead of the second highest-selling plug-in model from last year, the Chevrolet Volt.

ALG’s Eric Lyman on what’s next in green car sales and residual values

With gasoline prices expected to stay low for the near-term future, new vehicle sales figures for plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrids are expected to stay stagnant for now along with softening residual values. What might it take for these numbers to see an increase? Green Auto Market spoke with an expert on the subject – Eric Lyman, VP, industry insights at ALG – to gain insight on key market indicators to follow.

The phone conversation with Lyman came out of a meeting with John Krafcik, president of TrueCar at NADA 2015 in San Francisco. There’s been a strong correlation between full-size pickups doing much better in sales and the Toyota Prius seeing a decline in the hybrid’s sales numbers with gas prices dropping since last summer. When asked what it might take to reach interested consumers beyond the issue of gas prices, Krafcik thought it would make sense to check in with Lyman for more perspective from ALG (a TrueCar company).

Beyond the early adopters and new-technology first-in-line buyers, ALG finds the interest is there for EVs and hybrids, but car shoppers today are not that willing to pay for it. For now, consumers are responding best to two themes, it’s an environmental statement and it’s a statement of affluence, Lyman said. ALG surveys have shown that for the overall consumer market, the “efficiency is great and less time is spent at gas stations,” Lyman said. “But they’re still not willing to pay for it.”

Car shoppers in affluent communities have been willing to switch from driving a Mercedes S Class to a $125,000 Tesla Model S out of fascination with the new technology. It also appeals to their statement of success and affluence, and making a positive difference in the environment, according to Lyman.

Beyond that niche market, incentives and gaining access to carpool lanes in states like California have helped gain consumer interest in EVs. The $7,500 federal tax credit is applied to lease payments by captive finance companies like Nissan Motor Acceptance Corp. on the all-electric Nissan Leaf. State rebates are built into the lease just like the federal tax credit, he said. For those purchasing their own Leafs or other EVs, the federal tax credit adds to the complexity of the car buying experience, Lyman said, as the consumer decides how to add the credit into their tax payment by April 15.

ALG conducted a three-year study on the perceived quality of alternative powertrains, with the third edition being released in late 2012. At the time, there were several new automaker brands out there vying for attention and credibility on the market. “There were several brands emerging at the time, such as Zenn, ZAP, Coda, Fisker, and BYD, but they had no history in the marketplace,” Lyman said. “Consumers were almost indifferent to the brands – interest in innovative, new technology was a bigger issue.”

Much has changed since that time – with some of those brands gone from the market or put on hold. Mainstream brands had a substantial advantage in perceived quality at that time, though alternative powertrain manufacturers were improving in the study. Tesla was the most highly rated alternative powertrain brand. For several major automakers, EVs were perceived as a “side project,” Lyman said.

For residual values, Tesla has been the only solid EV performer so far. “They’ve done an amazing job of building the brand with early adopters, achieving a cult status,” he said. Tesla Motors took a non-traditional path in funding. For the original Tesla lease program on the Model S, no federal tax credit could be applied, according to Lyman. Now the agreement with US Bank has made that incentive available for the Model S.

For consumers, the “breakeven point” is a bit long in this period of low gasoline prices, Lyman said. “It can take five-to-six years for hybrids to break even” with comparable non-hybrid models, he said. “Diesel can take 10 years.” Lyman has seen diesel up about 70 cents a gallon over gasoline in some markets, making it a tougher sell for US consumers.

Here are some other points Lyman made to keep in mind:

Maintenance is a strong selling point for EVs compared to internal combustion engine vehicles. “It’s a real opportunity – they don’t have the same maintenance components such as oil changes and moving parts,” he said.
Fleets are still very new to EV drivetrains. “EV technology doesn’t really apply to daily rental,” he said. “Commercial and government fleets amortize vehicles down to zero, which could take 10 years.”
Consumers are “extremely well informed” and have done their research on the green car technology they’re shopping for. It creates a “situation” for dealers when consumers know more.
Green cars still make up a small percentage of new vehicle sales – about 5% for hybrids, EVs, and diesel passenger cars. It’s going to take a while to gain confidence in new technologies by consumers, he said.
It will take a few years for EVs to see more strength in residual values. A good example of how this happens comes from the first years of the Toyota Prius, Lyman said. “The first generation Prius appreciated about $4,000 over the first six months after introduction of the second-gen Prius.”

Cheap oil raises the bar on Obama policies and alternative fuels gaining support

As oil barrel and gas pump prices stay down, adopting and enforcing environmental policies and gaining support for alternatives like electric, hydrogen and advanced biofuels are seeing higher hurdles to cross over. Here’s a look at what effect it may have in Washington – along with forecasts from Navigant Research on where electric vehicle sales are likely to be heading……….

Automakers are expressing concern about meeting the 54.5 mpg corporate average fuel economy mandate by 2025; and oil companies say the decline in oil revenue means the industry can’t afford stringent climate regulations. OEMs and “big oil” might be more resistant to supporting these policies in the US and abroad.
Sales have been increasing for pickups, minivans and SUVs that they’d shunned when gasoline as $3 or more a gallon. Automakers have been counting on stronger demand for hybrids and EVs to meet the 54.5 mpg target.
Climate change had been a key theme during Obama’s two presidential campaigns. Reducing carbon emissions at power plants has been a leading policy initiative, along with funding for clean energy and renewable-energy projects on public land. As for fuel efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions reductions in passenger vehicles, EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy says the administration isn’t willing to ease off fuel economy and sees it as a “long-term investment” for the industry.
While light-duty vehicle sales will continue increasing with global demand, studies by International Energy Agency (IEA) and ExxonMobil see efficiency leveling out the playing field. Exxon projects passenger vehicles will rise from 825 million in 2010 to 1.7 billion in 2040, with sharp gains in fuel efficiency offsetting the rise. That will come from an increase in global average fuel economy going up to 45 mpg in 2040, up 60% from 2010. New vehicle technologies like turbocharging will have a lot to do with the increase; increased hybrid sales will also contribute to those numbers.
Commercial transportation will cause energy demand to grow during that time. Exxon expects that by 2025, heavy-duty vehicles are likely to surpass light-duty vehicles as the largest energy-consuming segment in transportation. China and India are expected to account for about 30% of the global growth in demand for energy for heavy-duty vehicles, and the US and Europe combines should account for only about 10%. Economic growth will drive demand for heavy-duty vehicles, marine, aviation, and rail.
Navigant Research expects the total for light-duty electric vehicles to grow from 2.7 million electric vehicles sold by the end of 2014 to at least 6.4 million by 2023. Fuel efficiency advances being deployed within internal combustion engines like stop-start technologies and lightweight materials will play its competitive part in the market. On the commercial vehicle side of the business, Navigant expects global sales of electric drive and electric-assisted trucks and buses to grow from less than 16,000 in 2014 to nearly 160,000 by 2023.
Reading these media and research reports illustrates that making the case for clean transportation can be most effectively stated by emphasizing a few themes: reducing greenhouse gas emissions and petroleum consumption; accessing more stable energy markets and pricing trends such as electricity, natural gas, and propane; being less dependent on foreign oil imports and vulnerable to price volatility; and supporting US job creation and cleantech and clean transportation industry growth through vehicle acquisitions, infrastructure, and capital investments.

This Week’s Top 10: More news from the Detroit Auto Show, Rick Sikes and Keith Leech announce their retirements

by Jon LeSage, editor and publisher, Green Auto Market

Here’s my take on the 10 most significant and interesting occurrences during the past week…….

Unveiling the Chevrolet Bolt and 2016 Volt changes stole the thunder last Monday at the North American International Auto Show. As for the rest of that week…….. Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk was a keynote speaker at the Automotive New World Congress and said that Tesla will boost production of its electric vehicles from less than 40,000 last year to at least a few million by 2025. The company may not be profitable until 2020. Chinese sales were weaker in the fourth quarter of 2014 than the company had expected; Musk said city-dwelling Chinese consumers have misperceptions about the difficulty of charging their electric cars. On Thursday of last week, Musk traveled to Texas and urged state legislators to ease restrictions on selling Tesla electric cars there, and the possibility of setting up a new car factory or test facility for his “hyperloop” fast train…… Volkswagen debuted its five-seater Cross Coupe GTE. The plug-in hybrid has a maximum output of 355 horsepower and an all-wheel-drive system. It has a manufacturer-estimated fuel economy rating of 70 MPGe…….. Honda showcased its FCV hydrogen fuel cell vehicle concept with US availability of the production vehicle in 2016. The company also announced plans to offer several next-generation, advanced powertrain vehicles, including a new battery-electric model and plug-in hybrid model by 2018………. Ford unveiled the all-new GT, an ultra-high-performance supercar that serves as a technology showcase for top EcoBoost performance, aerodynamics and lightweight carbon fiber construction……… Hyundai revealed a plug-in hybrid version of the Sonata midsize sedan that will go on sale this year. Hyundai said it plans to start by selling the 2016 Sonata PHEV in California and nine other U.S. states that mandate sales of zero-emission vehicles.
Two prominent fleet managers have retired. Rick Sikes, fleet superintendent for the City of Santa Monica, and Keith Leech, fleet manager for the City of Sacramento, announced their retirements this month. Sikes is known for leading Santa Monica’s fleet for more than 25 years and bringing it up to 85% alternative fuel including electric, propane, compressed natural gas, hydrogen, and biodiesel. Sikes has served on the leadership team for the city’s AltCar Expo since its inception in 2005. Leech served as Sacramento’s fleet manager from May 2006, where he promoted fleet sustainability with alternative fuels and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. Leech has served as President of the Sacramento Regional Clean Cities Coalition; his fleet has been honored several times with awards including taking #1 Government Green Fleet in North America by “100 Best Fleets” and Green Fleet
Former GM product czar Bob Lutz says that Via Motors delivered its first 40 plug-in hybrid Chevrolet Silverado converted pickups to fleet customers, and 200 retrofitted Chevrolet Express vans are in the works. Lutz plays a leadership role with Via, and he says the company expects to sell 50,000 vehicles per year by 2018.
Cheap gasoline prices make it harder to sell electric cars, says Ian Robertson, BMW’s head of sales and marketing. He expects sales to dip in a few countries due to declining gas prices. Maybe a 60-second spot during the Superbowl will help move the metal. The i8 plug-in hybrid is only available in limited production and is quite expensive with a list price of $137,450, but the interest in strong. People are waiting about a year to receive their i8, doubling the delivery this year to 1,000 plus compared to last year. Ludwig Willisch, CEO of BMW of North America, said those i8 models won’t be in the US until October.
Roush CleanTech has earned California Air Resources Board (CARB) retrofit certification for all Ford 6.8-liter vehicles for model years 2012 to 2015 – and is the first company to receive this certification for propane autogas. Any 2012 – 2015 model year Ford E-450, F-450, F-550, F-650, F-53 and F-59 vehicles can now be converted to run on propane autogas in all 50 states.
A recent JD Power and Associates study found that fuel economy has been the top vehicle buying decision for consumers for the past four years; and it should stay high on their consideration list even with the huge drop in gasoline prices, a JD Power analyst said.
The California Energy Commission approved more than $12 million for alternative fuel vehicle projects during its first business meeting of the new year. Regents of the University of California will receive $11.2 million for a natural gas vehicle incentive program; US General Services Administration will receive $600,000 to install 50 electric vehicle charging stations at federal facilities in California; and Linde LLC is receiving $300,000 for a new hydrogen fueling station in West Sacramento.
Uber will provide the City of Boston with data on its ridesharing service trips as part of Boston’s plan to ease traffic congestion and assist in smarter city planning. Uber will provide a quarterly report with trip logs with details on the ride – pickup days and times, distance travel, and zip codes where passengers were picked up and dropped off. That follows new rules from the state of Massachusetts officially recognizing Uber and other ridesharing services as valid modes of transportation. Question: could carsharing services track and report trips to cities and fleets?
Tom Saxton, chief science officer for Plug In America, analyzed how things are going for workplace electric vehicle charging in a blog post. One of the challenges is finding the “just right” fee for charging costs. Free charging is a good thing for kickstarting awareness of electric vehicles but it’s not going to last forever. Free charging can lead to oversubscription and reduce charging availability for those needing charges; that would discourage EV adoption from people who could most benefit from charging at work, Saxton says.
While the price drop at gasoline pumps was a leading topic last week at the Detroit Auto Show, it’s not going to last forever, says Bob Carter, the head of US automotive operations for Toyota. Carter is in agreement with most other automotive executives that those prices will go up; but the question continues on what impact it may have in 2017 during the industry-government review of the 54.5 mpg corporate average fuel economy by 2025 mandate.

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Your company may be ready to contribute clean transportation and cleantech to your community – electric vehicle charging stations powered by solar energy; electric trucks perfect for urban deliveries; a propane dispenser ideal for fleets; a mobile device for finding alternative fueling and charging stations; or an advanced vehicle technology R&D project such as a NextGen lithium battery that needs the right seed capital to make it work.

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Crowdfunding is being used by startups as well as by companies and investment firms looking for the right partners. A clear example of the strength of crowdfunding comes from Hyperloop, the high-speed transit system announced in August 2013 by Tesla Motors and SpaceX chief executive Elon Musk. That launch led to the creation of Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, Inc., which was founded by JumpStarter Inc. utilizing JumpStarter’s crowdfunding and crowd collaboration platform JumpStartFund.

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