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This Week’s Top 10: Apple stirs up frenzy as potential EV maker, EPA refining fuel economy testing procedures

by Jon LeSage, editor and publisher, Green Auto Market

Here’s my take on the 10 most significant and interesting occurrences during the past week…….

Is Apple becoming an electric automaker competing directly with Tesla and the majors? The answer is yet to be determined, but it stirred up a media frenzy last week as big as Google’s self-driving car venture last year. The stories were captivating: lithium battery maker A123 Systems sues Apple for allegedly stealing away top engineers to build its own battery pack – and these and other Apple engineers are likely to apply for several patents protecting the new technology. Sources told media that Apple is working on an electric car that may roll out by 2020. The Wall Street Journal piece that started the wave of coverage said that Apple’s secret project has been named “Project Titan,” and hundreds of Apple employees have been assigned to design the electric minivan. Apple has large cash reserves and could be positioning itself to offer cutting-edge technologies for cars that could be as significant as the iPhone has been in the smartphone space. Former General Motors vice chairman Bob Lutz doubts Apple will be setting up vehicle manufacturing assembly plants. “Do I think they are going to work with vehicles? Yes,” Lutz said. “Do I think they intend to produce entire cars? No.”
The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is updating fuel economy test procedures to make them more accurate than they’ve been criticized for being in the past couple of years. The revision focuses on testing rolling resistance and aerodynamic drag of vehicles as they roll from 70 mph to a stop on a straight, flat track. These calculations are used to program dynamometers that determine fuel economy ratings in EPA test cycles. The new standards will need to more accurately address the effects of road load levels over a broad range of speed. The EPA will be meeting with automakers in the next few months to discuss their testing procedures, said Chris Grundler, director of the EPA’s Office of Transportation Air Quality.
West coast ports may see their work stoppage go away and shipping go back to normal. The International Longshore and Warehouse Union and Pacific Maritime Association have reached tentative agreement on a new labor contract that had been backing up cargo carriers in long lines in recent weeks. Japanese automakers had been feeling the squeeze, especially Honda which said that the backup cost the automaker about 25,000 vehicles in lost production. US Labor Secretary Thomas Perez last week brokered a deal in San Francisco between the union and a group of shipping companies.
Fisker Automotive is considering three options for its company name: eLux Technology, Elux Automotive, or keeping its current name. According to an inside source, including “Lux” in the name could commemorate the company’s chairman, Lu Guanqui; the Chinese billionaire and founder of Wanxiang Group Corp. acquired Fisker about a year ago in bankruptcy court for $149.2 million in cash.
For those interested in working with the US military on advanced vehicle technology projects…… the US Marine Corp. issued a Request for Information (RFI) for its next Expeditionary Energy Concepts technology demonstration that will be held June 23-25, 2015, at Camp Lejeune, NC. Three vehicle technology areas will be included in this year’s demonstration: hybrid/electric all-terrain vehicles; advanced batteries and energy storage; and fuel cells up to 10 kW. The deadline to respond to the RFI is Friday, March 6.
Tesla Motors has a diverse group of backers in its fight against franchised dealers. Ten public-interest groups have signed a letter to US governors and legislators supporting Tesla’s right to directly sell its electric vehicles at retail stores across the country. Among the 10 groups were the environmentalist Sierra Club and Americans for Prosperity – a political action group founded by the Koch brothers. In other news, Tesla may be granted permission to open up to 12 stores in Texas. Six state legislators have filed bills that would give permission to Tesla to directly sell to customers.
Navigant Research expects electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) to see big gains in coming years. Global revenue for EVSE charging services should grow from $81.1 million in 2014 to $2.9 billion in 2023. That would include residential and commercial electric vehicle charging for Level 1, Level 2, DC fast charging, and wireless EVSE.
Volvo will be launching an autonomous vehicle pilot program by 2017. The Drive Me project will use Volvo vehicles equipped with a variety of sensors designed to detect weather and traffic, pedestrians, and other safety and mobility factors. Some of that data will come from a combined radar and camera system mounted at the top of the windshield.
Ryder System has set up an online natural gas vehicle maintenance program for all of its North American maintenance network with more than 6,000 employees at Ryder’s 800 facilities. Technicians will learn about the entire spectrum of all natural gas vehicle platforms and configurations. Ryder trucks have put in more than 30 million miles driven as natural gas vehicles for the commercial transportation industry; the company has 14 natural gas vehicle maintenance facilities and 260 natural gas vehicle trained technicians.
California Air Resources Board received a letter signed by about 100 businesses, organizations and individuals, highlighting key benefits of the state’s six-year-old Low Carbon Fuel Standard. Key benefits mentioned in the letter included diversifying the state’s fuel supply and increasing independence from fluctuating oil prices and gas pump prices; spurring greater use of clean alternative fuels and vehicles; and cutting air pollution and improving public health.

Electric power expert talks about the changing business model of utilities

In this age of smart grids and electrified transportation, the role of electric utilities is going through widespread change. Two news stories on major utilities this month offer a look at the new landscape. Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) submitted a proposal to the California Public Utilities Commission asking for permission to build 25,000 new charging stations for electric vehicles in its Northern California territory. Duke Energy has made a $225 million investment in REC Solar for a majority stake in the commercial solar company.

What’s behind these moves? Green Auto Market spoke with utility expert Dr. Peter Fox-Penner, author of Smart Power: Climate Change, the Smart Grid, and the Future of Electric Utilities, for more perspectives on these issues. Dr. Fox-Penner, principal of The Brattle Group, has also served as a senior official in the U.S. Department of Energy and the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.

Economic conditions are changing for utilities with much of it based on two market factors, Fox-Penner said. While electricity prices went up in recent years, utility bills are stabilizing. Supporting energy efficiency (and producing less electricity) is becoming common now for utilities as well. Investing in new segments such as charging stations and solar power would also offer additional revenue streams and profit centers for utilities. All of this means that utilities are looking at new channels for growth – and not all of it will be as tightly regulated by public utility commissions, he said.

Areas of growth for utilities include offering more energy efficiency services, demand response services, and development of smart grids, Fox-Penner said. “Grid resilience” is now a buzzword in the industry, he said, with demand response offering users more stability in pricing during periods of peak demand; or at other times when reliability of the grid is threatened – with Hurricane Sandy offering an example of how volatile conditions can become.

Smart grid systems allow end users to have more control of energy use in their homes and commercial properties. That can come through new technologies like measurement sensors, computing, micro-generation, and geothermal heat pumps, Fox-Penner said. Converting over to the smart grid will take quite a few years, he said. The Eastern US has quite a lot of decades-old copper wire that does need to be replaced. There are also several aging distribution systems in the US that will take decades to replace, he said.

Generating electricity through renewable energy sources like solar, wind, and hydro, is a big part of the environment shaping the future of utilities. California and other states have ambitious targets in place. Renewables do benefit from having access to energy storage through electric vehicle batteries and stationary storage units to address intermittent conditions – but they’re not necessary for renewables to succeed. “Certain standards can be met even without battery storage by integrating traditional energy with renewables,” Fox-Penner said. “Europe is doing it without much battery storage.”

Concern over climate change is helping renewable energy see growth, he said. “There’s been enormous growth in wind power, and coal has trended downward,” Fox-Penner said. Not long ago, coal powered 55% of US electricity and lately it’s hovered around 45%. Natural gas is the other fastest growing source of power with wind.

Solar still doesn’t make up much of the total supply, but it is “growing at a healthy clip,” he said. Nuclear makes up about 20% of electricity produced in the US with that coming from aging plants. We could see nuclear go away in the next 10-to-20 years, Fox-Penner said.

Electric vehicles have gone mainstream enough to draw Apple Inc. into the game

Apple Inc. has enough interest in vehicle technologies and electrification to fund an Apple-branded electric vehicle, according to sources familiar with the matter. Apple has a secret lab to test out a vehicle that looks like a minivan, sources told The Wall Street Journal. According to the article, several hundred employees are now at work on the project.

Like Google Inc.’s move into self-driving cars, the Apple test project likely has more to do with providing advanced connected car technologies in upcoming model years. Apple plunged into the automotive space nearly a year ago, unveiling CarPlay that lets drivers access contacts on their iPhones, make calls, and listen to voice mails without taking their hands off the steering wheel. Google has acknowledged that it’s seeking partnerships with automakers and tier-one suppliers and won’t be entering the business of making cars. Apple will likely do the same, with electric vehicles offering an excellent opportunity to serve a wide range of vehicle technologies. The Apple rumor is stirring up a lot of buzz in tech journals, with speculation that Apple is getting ready to take on Tesla Motors.

Chrysler has been on the sidelines with electric vehicles for several years, running a few test models in Michigan but not going much further. That is going to change, according to Al Gardner, president and CEO of the Chrysler brand within the recently named FCA. Chrysler’s new family of minivans will include a plug-in hybrid version, Gardner said. That will be part of an unveiling at next year’s Detroit Auto Show. The new minivan is another vehicle that FCA hopes can change the perception of Chrysler through the offering of sophisticated technology.

Mitsubishi will be adding to its plug-in lineup with a concept car unveiled at the Chicago Auto Show. The automaker showed off its Grand Cruiser-Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle (GC-PHEV), built on an Outlander-style SUV. It will offer a wide range of digital technologies include an “augmented reality” windshield and an all-wheel drive system. Its electric motor uses a 12 kWh lithium-ion battery. The electric drive system shares many of its components with Mitsubishi’s battery-electric vehicle, formerly known as the i-MiEV.

General Motors gained most of the media attention at the Detroit Auto Show unveiling its refreshed Chevrolet Volt – and also through surprising everyone with the announcement of its all-electric Chevrolet Bolt hatchback. Last week, GM confirmed that it will invest about $200 million in two suburban Detroit plants to build the Bolt. GM said it will spend $160 million on new tooling and equipment at its Orion assembly plant, and another $40 million for new dies at its Pontiac Metal Center plant.

The automaker had been taking a fairly conservative approach in production volumes and marketing spend on its Volt and Cadillac ELR plug-in hybrids and Chevrolet Spark battery electric car. There’s hope the Bolt might take off with its 200 mile range on a single charge and costing about $30,000 after tax credits. That could give GM a competitive advantage in going after the buyer segment Nissan is reaching with its Leaf and that Tesla Motors will be going after when it releases its more affordable Model 3 electric car in 2017. “We are putting the Bolt EV concept on the fast track to production, because reaction to the concept was overwhelmingly positive,” Alan Batey, president of GM North America, said in a written statement. “It has the potential to quickly shake up the status quo for electric vehicles. It’s an EV aimed at everyday drivers.”

Reporter’s Notebook: The state of auto dealers at NADA 2015 in San Francisco

For franchised dealers and their suppliers, attending the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) Convention is a must. I attended NADA 2015 on Friday and Saturday with two colleagues from Automotive Digest at the Moscone Center in San Francisco. Here are a few thoughts from my notebook:

The industry seems to be healthy, with attendance at 22,000 to 24,000 people – up from last year and about 550 exhibitors in the three separate Moscone Center halls. As for car sales, NADA’s chief economist Steven Szakaly forecasted US new vehicle sales will go up from 16.5 million sold in 2014 to 16.9 million sold this year. Economic growth is behind it with an improving housing market and job expansion leading to a surge in demand; low gas prices are a factor and that should tip the scale to more demand for pickup trucks and SUVs.
Michelle Krebs, senior analyst at AutoTrader, expects electric vehicle (EV) sales to continue softening this year. Some of that has to do with internal combustion engines having stronger fuel economy and performance through stop/start systems, direct injection, turbocharging, and other factors. Limitations on EV charging stations are another part of it. As for hybrids, there’s still a lot of online shopper interest in them, but that’s many times diverted over to fuel-efficient vehicle purchases. Krebs was very impressed with the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) this month, where automakers for the first time played the dominant role. CES could be the leading auto show of the future, Krebs said. Mercedes stole the show on driverless cars, and BMW and Volkswagen stood out demonstrating their self-parking car systems. One AutoTrader survey showed that while consumers are not that supportive of self-driving cars, they do have interest in connected car technology features currently available on cars – and which are leading the way toward autonomous vehicles.
Jennifer Weaver of National Biodiesel Board said that the association’s annual conference this month in Fort Worth, Texas, was well attended. There’s still concern about the US Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) final ruling on the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) being delayed. Biodiesel is the only advanced biofuel on the RFS list of supported fuels that’s reached commercial scale production and sales. Nearly all diesel vehicles allow consumption of biodiesel, with much of that in the B5 to B20 range. While some biodiesel producers were hit hard by the EPA’s delay of its production schedule, there are several large and stable biodiesel companies, Weaver said. Having stringent ASTM fuel specifications has set a standard for bringing clean biodiesel to fueling stations. Fleets are gaining more interest in biodiesel since it reduces greenhouse gas emissions by more than 50% compared to petroleum diesel; the cost is comparable and sometimes less than diesel; you can run biodiesel without having to make any engine conversions; and public fuel dispensers providing biodiesel are becoming widespread throughout the US.
As for big news breaking at the convention, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush attacked the Consumer Federation Protection Bureau (CFPB) for coming down too hard on dealer sales tactics. Some think Bush is likely to announce his candidacy for president in 2016 – one year after keynote speaker and potential presidential candidate Hillary Clinton gave a keynote speech at the NADA convention. Another hot topic being discussed is what’s going to happen to dealer corporate buyouts and mergers now that Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway have invested their way into the dealer world. Another interesting news development took place during NADA when billionaire investor George Soros, who has a lot of experience in auto industry capitalization, was said to be considering acquiring a dealer network.
John Krafcik, president of TrueCar, sees a strong correlation between gas prices and Toyota Prius sales, which continue to be down. Full-size pickups are doing much better than hybrids as gas prices stay down. On the subject of clean diesel passenger vehicles, Krafcik sees that greenhouse gas emissions present a strong challenge for diesel vehicles. Diesel vehicles release 14% more CO2 than gasoline; some of these clean diesel cars may be about 10% to 15% more fuel efficient than comparable gasoline engine cars, but they end up breaking even with diesel cars usually costing more than gas engine models.
Going mobile in San Francisco means accessing transportation alternatives such as riding in a cabled electric bus, or a BART train, or taking Uber across town. I rode with Uber to and from the airport to save money off the usual taxi fare of around $50 from SFO to the center of the city. One of my trips cost $34 and the fee on the return trip to the airport was only $16. Why that was so much cheaper the second time wasn’t explained to me.
Millennials are getting serious about buying cars. “Millennials, like other generations, see car ownership as a way to establish independence,” Berj Kazanjian, Senior Vice President of MTV’s Ad Sales Research, said about study findings at a presentation during NADA 2015. They “also see car ownership as a way to craft their unique adult identity.” (I would also remind you to keep in mind that several studies in recent years have shown young people have a lot of interest in plug-in electrics, hybrids, and other alternative fuel vehicles. Just make sure you can reach them on their mobile devices.)

So who is actually leading the EV sales race – the Leaf or the Model S?

If you had read “This Week’s Top 10” a week ago in Green Auto Market, you might have assumed that the Nissan Leaf took top spot in US electric vehicle (EV) sales during December. It’s possible that the Leaf didn’t take the No. 1 sales spot – it may have been the Tesla Model S. It depends on who you ask.

Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk did not want to give out the December sales number for the Model S while in Detroit to speak at the auto show – though the company had given out that number a year ago at the Detroit Auto Show.

Tesla Motors doesn’t provide monthly sales figures like all the rest of the automakers do. Those sales numbers come through its quarterly earnings reports; its fourth quarter 2014 numbers will be released in early February; and will be for the quarter without monthly numbers. However, as mentioned in a few articles last week, Tesla may have beat Nissan – and those figures come from the Inside EVs publication and its monthly reporting. Stock market analyst service MarketWatch reported that the Model S became the best-selling electric car in the US during December 2014, beating the Leaf for the first time. Selling 3,500 units last month beat out the Leaf sales figure of 3,102 units.

When you look at the Inside EVs chart for December, the footnote on the Tesla number reads, ”Estimated Tesla NA Sales Numbers – Reconciled on Quarterly Totals from Earnings Report (Q1 Sales reported @ 6,457-3,000 Intl Delivers, Q2 7,579 total-approx reported International registrations, Q3 7,785 total deliveries ~ 3,900 US).” Where is that fourth quarter estimate coming from? Who knows. Maybe the publication gets some of that information from Tesla – or they know a stock market analyst who does.

There’s another figure much lower than that reported by Inside EVs – HybridCars.com and its sales reporting partner Baum & Associates said that the Leaf sold 3,102 units in the US and that there were 1,900 of the Model S units delivered. That’s a very wide gap from the 3,500 reported by Inside EVs.

Green Auto Market – Extended Edition, the monthly subscription-based version of this newsletter, uses the HybridCars.com and Baum and Associates figures. Those figures have been reported longer than any other sales data, and Baum & Associates is respected in the industry for its expertise on alternative/clean vehicle reporting; HybridCars.com has done a very good job reporting on hybrids and EVs for several years.

In the end, HybridCars.com, Baum & Associates, Inside EVs, and other sources have different numbers on sales of the Tesla Model S. One thing is for sure: whether the Leaf or Model S came in first place, battery electric vehicles are beating extended range/plug-in hybrid vehicles in monthly US sales. Why might that be? Here are a few of my thoughts on that question:

Very impressive product. If you’ve ever driven a Leaf or Model S, you’re likely to have been impressed by their performance and handling.
The range is enough for now. You can go about 84 miles on the Leaf after a full charge, and up to 300 miles on the Model S (depending on which version of the Model S you’re driving). Most drivers are using these cars for daily commutes and short trips and know how to charge them everywhere – and usually do so. Range anxiety isn’t as much of an issue for them as it is for plug-in hybrid drivers, and for consumers and fleets just thinking about getting an EV.
Leasing makes EVs more affordable. Leasing has made EVs more attractive for car shoppers. Tesla has created its own “guaranteed buy back” program and Nissan, Chevrolet, BMW, and other automakers are offering their own competitive lease packages. That’s helping get first-time EV buyers into EVs of all types.

Energy storage holds huge potential for makers and owners of electric vehicles

For those of you following the cleantech business, you’ve probably noticed an emerging market segment in the past year: energy storage. There’s a lot of demand for clean energy to be produced – along with ways to store that energy for when it’s needed through an economically feasible business model. Electric automakers have gotten into that market – and we’re likely to see electric vehicles added to energy storage potential.

California Gov. Jerry Brown called for 50% of California’s electricity to come from renewables by 2030 in his “State of the State” address last week. That’s up from former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s 20% and his own previous 33% mandate for renewable energy. Utilities in the state – and in several others in the US – have been investing in energy storage to address renewable energy mandates and to better manage their grids. Energy storage has become “a powerful and appealing alternative to upgrading grid infrastructure to solve these challenges,” according to Navigant Research.

Demand and price can swing up and down over a 24-hour period, causing uproar from residential and commercial property owners – and from state regulatory agencies. Utilities are exploring batteries for energy storage as a way to bring stability to peak periods and to move forward on renewable energy mandates.

Solar power companies are getting into the game. In its new study, “The Future of Solar-Plus-Storage in the U.S,” GTM Research reports that four of the nation’s top 10 residential solar installers currently offer “solar plus” energy storage. These four companies, including top installer SolarCity and fifth-ranked NRG Home Solar, installed 38% of all US solar energy in the first three quarters of 2014.

If you look at the first chart in this article, you’ll see three automakers identified as part of the energy storage market: Tesla Motors; Chinese automaker BYD; and the company that used to be known as CODA Automotive that is out of the electric vehicle business, post-bankruptcy, and is now CODA Energy – an energy storage systems company. These automakers have also sold their EV battery technology to other automakers and to clientele in other industries.

There’s a good deal of speculation out there that electric vehicles (EVs) could be viable energy storage containers. That could come from a fleet with 150 EVs parked on its corporate campus for long stretches of time; on average, those EVs might be in motion only one quarter of a 24-hour cycle, bringing huge opportunities for power storage. That could be a revenue stream for company, and a support system for renewable energy and grid stabilization.

Other examples of available parked EVs could come from transit station parking lots, retail stores, and apartment/condo complexes. Lithium and NextGen batteries are still expensive and underutilized – energy storage has great potential for key stakeholders out there.

This Week’s Top 10: Leaf reaches another sales benchmark, GM Ventures backs fuel efficient startup technology

by Jon LeSage, editor and publisher, Green Auto Market

Here’s my take on the 10 most significant and interesting occurrences during the past week…….

Leaf takes the top spot. Not long ago, cleantech analysts thought plug-in hybrids would dominate the US market over battery electric vehicles. Yet, the Nissan Leaf continues to hold the top spot and just reached another benchmark – 30,200 units sold in the US last year, a new record. That makes for a total of 72,322 sold in the US since the launch in December 2010 through the end of 2014. The Leaf leads a market trend where three of the leading electric models are now selling over 1,000 units a month in the US, with the Chevrolet Volt and Tesla Model S following right behind. During some months in the past, other models have surpassed the 1,000 mark – the Toyota Prius Plug-In, Ford C-Max Energi, and the Ford Fusion Energi.
GM Ventures backs another startup. General Motors plans to increase fuel economy on some of its models up to 15% using a new cylinder deactivation technology. Dynamic Skip Fire, or DSF, ignition system technology integrates advanced digital signal processing and software; the cylinders are programmed to only fire and deliver performance as the driver needs, saving on fuel. DSF is being developed by Tula Technology, Inc; that company received funding from GM Ventures in 2012. GM Ventures, led by Jon Lauckner, GM’s VP of global R&D, has lead investments in about 20 start-up advanced vehicle technology companies. (Read more about the role GM Ventures and others are doing in clean transportation funding in a special feature for this week.)
Connected cars take lead at CES. Those attending Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas starting today will get to see that connected cars with advanced technologies are cooler this year than video games. Ford CEO Mark Fields will be delivering a keynote speech on the dawn of the connected car era. Daimler CEO Dieter Zetsche will be speaking about a self-driving Mercedes-Benz model. Volkswagen is making its debut at CES and will be joined by industry colleagues Toyota, General Motors, Hyundai, Mazda, Audi, BMW, and FCA US LLC (which was not long ago known as Chrysler Group).
Bad news for workaholics: Starting up and running an electric carmaker and space flight company might mean you can’t stay married. Tesla CEO Elon Musk filed for divorce on New Year’s Eve for the second time with British actress Talulah Riley. They’d married in 2010, divorced, and remarried in 2013. That followed a previous marriage with five children (including triplets) to Canadian-born science fiction writer Justine Musk. It sounds like that divorce in 2010 wasn’t as friendly as the latest two with Talulah Riley, as would be assumed. (Editor’s Note: Watch the 2011 film “Revenge of the Electric Car” if you want to catch a glimpse of Musk’s previous family life.)
Diesel is still a bit pricy: Natural gas vehicle sales have been feeling the impact of gasoline prices coming down strong in the past six months. Natural gas has a better shot at competing directly with diesel-powered trucks, according to Erik Neandross, CEO of Gladstein, Neandross & Associates (GNA), a consulting firm and organizer of ACT Expo. National average pricing for diesel has been staying around $3.40 to $3.50 per gallon – “by no means a bargain,” Neandross said during a recent webinar.
OEMs haven’t abandoned EVs: Automotive News doesn’t see automakers walking away from electric vehicles (EVs) as gasoline prices continue to stay down. The investment in the technology continues……. GM is rolling out its NextGen Chevrolet Volt (read all about it in a feature for this week); the automaker also plans to roll out an electric 2017 Chevrolet Sonic. Volkswagen invested in a 5% stake in Silicon Valley-based battery developer QuantumScape Corp., with its stable solid state battery technology. Nissan claims that it will roll out a second-generation battery that will double the range of the Leaf from its present EPA estimated 84 mile maximum. Tesla Motors is moving forward on its “gigafactory,” recently starting recruitment of its first 300 workers for its Sparks, Nev., facility.
Clean Energy sells its stake in biomethane company. Clean Energy Fuels Corp., based in Newport Beach, Calif., has sold its majority stake in a Dallas-based biomethane production facility to a minority owner for $40.6 million. The sale goes to Cambrian Energy Development LLC, based in Los Angeles, which has been a partner with Clean Energy since 2008. At that times the two companies jointly acquired the McCommas Bluff facility, the third-largest landfill gas operation in the US.
Porsche marketing chief loves plug-in hybrids. Bernhard Maier, Porsche’s global sales and marketing executive, is getting a kick out of driving a Porsche Panamera and Cayenne to work each day. He’s able to stay almost entirely on electric power during his 25 mile trip. He’s becoming a true believer in plug-in hybrids – one of the reasons is enjoying the convenience of having your own filling station at home or the office
Toyota opening up on hydrogen technology. Toyota Motor Corp. said it won’t be enforcing more than 5,600 patents it holds on its hydrogen fuel-cell technology through 2020. Competitors are free to use that technology, which falls in line with steps taken last year by Tesla Motors to encourage carmakers to tap into its battery technologies to spur adoption of battery electric vehicles.
ChargePoint rolls out home charging system. Campbell, Calif.-based ChargePoint is now offering what it calls the “world’s most attractive and advanced EV charging station.” ChargePoint Home offers speed, convenience, and intelligence to EV drivers. Drivers will be able to charge up to 25 miles per hour and easily manage the charger from their smartphone. It’s being displayed at booth #2815 at the Las Vegas Convention Center as part of the Consumer Electronics Show.

More teasers released on the upcoming launch of the 2016 Chevy Volt

General Motors Corp. will introduce the redesigned 2016 Chevrolet Volt next Monday at the Detroit Auto Show. The automaker has been releasing a series of teasers that started back in August with the photo of the Volt’s new back end and badging; and lately, there have been photos of a sheet-covered 2016 Volt with just a little bit of the front left corner showing. All of this has triggered a wave of media coverage and online commentaries in the past few weeks. Here are a few points to keep in mind:

The sheet was briefly pulled off the refreshed 2016 Volt two days ago at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) – see the photo above. The back-end of the car wasn’t viewed during this brief display.
Looking at what was shown at CES, it does have a more pointed, aerodynamic look than the 2011 to 2015 model year Volt, which likely comes from changes being adopted during the redesign to increase fuel efficiency. GM is waiting to reveal more information on the improved fuel efficiency.
Some of that fuel efficiency will come through installation of the Regen on Demand regenerative braking feature that was originally introduced in the Cadillac ELR plug-in hybrid.
The 2016 Volt does look more like a sedan look than the first-generation Volt models. Whether it will retain the five-door hatchback function from the previous version will have to be determined next week in Detroit.
There’s less noise generated from tires on the road in the NextGen Volt, according to GM’s product chief Mark Reuss as he takes another test drive in this video. An improved steering system also takes the car to the next level, Reuss said. Chevy Volt owners were listened to during the redesign to make sure all the little glitches have been cleaned up.
A crossover utility version, the Volt MPV5 or Crossvolt, probably won’t be shown off next Monday. It is possible to see it roll out in the next couple of years. In August, GM applied for a trademark for the “Crossvolt” that was published for opposition on Dec. 23. In 2010, GM showed a concept called the Volt MPV5, a compact crossover running off the Volt’s drivetrain. In 2013, a prototype very similar to the MPV5 was spotted as it was being tested with a fleet of Volts. I would bet that a plug-in hybrid crossover would find a lot of interest from those thinking about acquiring a Volt but wanting more storage space and functionality.
The “bi-coastal” strategy for the Volt isn’t going away. Chevrolet’s marketing chief, Tim Mahoney, says that the west coast and northeastern region of the US will likely to continue being where most all of the Volts get sold, current model year and through the 2016 MY changeover.

How to succeed in green vehicle marketing: Forget about gas prices and focus on clean energy

Gasoline and oil prices have seen sizable drops recently. Gasoline in the US lately has been averaging $2.41 per gallon versus $3.23 a year ago. As of Dec. 15, WTI crude oil was $55.96 per barrel versus $97.18 a year ago. The consensus opinion among analysts is that petroleum prices should stay down for the next year or so, and will eventually go up to record high prices. That could be somewhere around 2020 through increased government taxes and reduced oil supply driving the pump price of gasoline up to around $10 per gallon.

In the meantime, there has got to be a better marketing tactic for reaching fleets and consumers and their decision-making process. It looks like reducing greenhouse gas emissions, gaining more freedom from oil dependency, and supporting advanced vehicle technology innovation would be the best ways to go. A new study by the Union of Concerne d Scientists (UCS) offers some convincing resources, as does development of solar energy storage systems.

UCS has calculated that electric vehicles (EVs) have less “wells-to-wheels” emissions than they did a year ago. Top-selling Nissan Leaf increasing its electric range from 73 miles to 84 miles has helped, and the arrival in the past year of more energy efficient EVs like the BMW i3 has played a part in the improvements. Another UCS study, the “State of Charge,” finds that electricity production is getting cleaned up through reduction in coal generation and increasing renewable energy – helping EV makers and drivers meet their goals of reducing emissions and fossil fuel consumption.

Solar energy has huge potential for leading the renewable energy front, but it’s still behind wind energy in the US as a source currently being tapped into by utilities. For both solar and wind, one of the biggest challenges for market growth has been the capacity to store that power when the sun goes down (or is limited by storm clouds) and when the wind fades away. These are fluctuating, intermittent energy sources that need storage systems if they stand a chance of meeting load demand and gaining the financial backing they need.

A new study by GTM Research forecasts the market for solar energy paired with energy storage will surpass $1 billion per year in revenue by 2018 in the US. Installation of 318 cumulative megawatts of storage capacity through 2018 will come from state incentives, falling battery costs, net metering changes, and solid growth in the solar photovoltaics market. Two developments play a part: California’s mandate to procure 1.3 gigawatts of energy storage and Tesla’s Gigafactory will mean that capacity for energy storage will soon reach a tipping point. A federal 30% Investment Tax Credit (ITC), available in certain situations, is also expected to help meet that $1 billion forecast – up from its current $42 million annual revenue.

California and Hawaii have been the major growth markets for solar power in the US, and more incentives are expected to show up. California, New Jersey, and New York have been offering incentive programs. California’s Small Generation Incentive Program has supported several megawatts’ worth of solar-plus-storage to date.

It’s typical to see incentives for adding solar power to homes and commercial properties, and occasionally these programs are tied into EV ownership. Solar-powered canopies with charging stations have taken off in California and other states; and solar companies have made marketing arrangements with automakers to entice EV owners to install solar on their homes – such as SolarCity has done with Honda through its discount solar financing program.

Keeping hybrid and electric vehicle sales figures in perspective

We’ve seen sales numbers decline on hybrid and electric vehicles (EVs) in the past few months. When you look at the broad spectrum of market reports and analysis of that data, it’s a good reminder to keep things in perspective. That being said, here’s the latest…………

Automakers do believe that sales of hybrids and EVs will go up eventually; even though recent sales figures have declined, their production schedules are still staying on track – and that includes expecting demand for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. BMW now plans to sell a plug-in hybrid version of every major model in its vehicle lineup. Daimler will be investing 100 million euros to increase production of batteries for its EVs; Tesla is clearly optimistic with its grand vision of building the $5 billion “gigafactory.” Toyota is preparing to sell its first fuel-cell vehicle in Japan, which it recently named the Mirai. One of the reasons for the trend is that automakers do believe gasoline prices will eventually climb up. “We think the trend is clear,” said Ford CEO Mark Fields. “Over time, we believe gas prices around the world will continue moving higher.”
Hybrid sales were down nearly14% from last year in November, but EV sales were up slightly over last year and last month. Hybrids did see a 0.7% increase over October 2014. Hybrids are down nearly 5,000 units year-to-date from last year as of the end of November. Plug-in electric vehicles have a different story, according to Electric Drive Transportation Association: “With 9,785 plug in vehicles (3,609 plug-in hybrids and 6,176 battery EVs) sold last month, the total number of plug-ins that have been sold in 2014 rose to 107,487. This year-to-date cumulative number represents a 24 percent increase over the 86,912 plug-in vehicles that had been sold thru the same period last year,” the association reported.
Retail vehicle sales guru Art Spinella and his CNW Research firm just reported its consumer survey study indicating upper-middle class Americans are not crazy about buying EVs. “High Yield” new-car customers, upper-middle income Americans in their middle to late forties pre-disposed to buying a vehicle regularly, are not interested in buying an EV. That would be the case if the EV had identical prices as comparably-sized gasoline or diesel cars. That demographic group doesn’t represent the lion’s share of new vehicle sales in the US, but the study does point to a telling trend: you can’t depend on upper income early adopters to make a new technology successful. As suggested last week in Green Auto Market, long-term success in green vehicle sales will need to come from cost-sensitive fleets and consumers. They’ll be bringing in the larger sales numbers long term as these vehicles become more mainstream and accepted – and affordable. Marketing messages need to deliver more than concern over climate change or “keeping up with the Joneses” on cool new technologies.
The Nissan Leaf saw 2,687 units sold last month; what was its 22nd straight month of sales increases year-over-year. Overall, battery electric vehicles are continuing to see stronger sales than the plug-in hybrids in the US. There are likely a few influential factors behind it: car shoppers are impressed and confident in the Nissan Leaf, Tesla Model S, and BMW i3; their lease programs are attractive and make the deals more affordable; there are more charging stations installed in major metros across the US, relieving range anxiety; and battery range is increasing with each new model year.
Keep your eyes on the big picture. When you look at studies that are being released, such as the new EV City Casebook, you’ll see signs that perspectives are changing on EV ownership in global markets (including the US) that should increase EV adoption. Fleets are definitely influencing this trend, with a good example coming from California-based consulting firm Vision Fleet and its fleet partners. In late October, Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard was enthusiastic to announce the city’s “Freedom Fleet,” which will bring in 425 plug-in sedans. That project with Vision Fleet is expected to save the city 2.2 million gallons of gasoline over the next decade. The greenhouse gas reduction will be impressive, too.