Category: electric vehicles

Goodbye car guys, hello smart transportation players

traffic in LAThere’s more evidence that change is in the air, when it comes to car ownership in America.

The University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI) just released two studies on the issues. One study showed by that the rate of vehicle ownership on a per-person, per-household, and per-licensed driver basis peaked in 2006 prior to the Great Recession. Another UMTRI study found that there’s been a significant decline in vehicle miles traveled – those numbers peaked in 2004.

The studies have found change is due to increased telecommuting, higher use of public transportation, greater urbanization, and changes in the ages of drivers. A big one is Gen-Y/Millenials losing interest in drivers; only 28% of 16-year-olds had driver’s licenses in 2010, compared with 44% in 1980, according to UMTRI. Miles driven by young people 16-to-34 years old also dropped quite a bit – 23% between 2001 and 2009. Older drivers also play into it – they make up the majority of drivers on American roads and are tending to drive shorter distances.

Expanded transit systems and bike-share networks are also playing into less miles driven behind the wheel. Bicycle commuting in the US grew by 47% between 2000 and 2011, and at much higher levels in a few bike-friendly cities.

As recently reported in Green Auto Market, Southern California is once again the bellwether of changes in transportation trends.

  • Light rail has been expanded 26% in the past eight years. Bike lane networks have doubled to 292 miles. Bus and train ridership is growing – up nearly 5% in May 2013 versus May 2011.
  • Even more significant – the total number of passenger cars has declined in Los Angeles. The market rebounded from the recession, but the 2012 sales numbers were 28,000 less than five years earlier.

Transportation alternatives, sometimes called Smart Transportation, are gaining a lot more interest in sprawling urban environments. It’s tied to consumer interest in…..

  • Carsharing, vanpooling, and group transportation modes.
  • Alternative vehicle technologies including plug-ins, hybrids, and alternative fuels.
  • Bike lanes and safety gear for bicyclists.
  • Light rail and busing.
  • Living closer to work and retail stores with more foot traffic – and less annoyance with finding parking spaces and being charged fees for them. Plus more telecommuting through the latest technologies.
  • Eventually, advanced vehicle technologies are expected to play a larger role in the solution through autonomous vehicles that can park themselves and eventually driverless cars. Safety, reduced traffic congestion, and cleaner air are typically cited reasons for moving forward in these breakthroughs.

How are hybrid and EV sales performing?

EV sales

  1. Sales were down in June from May for hybrids but up for plug-ins. The hybrid sales trend looks more in line with the overall new vehicle market – up from a year ago and down from May, which can be seasonally normal. Gasoline prices have not spiked up in several months, either, which is always a sales factor for hybrids – new and used.
  2. During the past six months, battery electric vehicles took the lead in sales over plug-in hybrid/extended range. Much of that had to do with the Tesla Model S coming to market and an aggressive marketing campaign for the Nissan Leaf. Plug-in hybrids/extended range (Volt) led the market over battery electric models (Leaf) during 2011 and 2012, and that changed over in the first six months of this year.
  3. That’s not the whole story, though. There are more pure EV models on the market than hybrid/extended range. The Chevy Volt has taken the lead again for first time since February but pure EVs are still doing better with the Tesla Model S joining the race and price wars for the Honda Fit EV and Nissan Leaf moving up sales. At some point soon, there will be more plug-in hybrids on the market (including Mitsubishi models), and the Ford C-Max Energi and Fusion Energi are likely to grow in sales transactions.
  4. Everything else is fairly far behind the Volt, Leaf, and Model S with volumes of 2,698, 2,225, and 1,800, respectively, in June. The Prius Plug In is staying steady (584 units) and the two Ford Energi models are somewhat in that range (455 for C-Max Energi and 390 for the Fusion Energi). Automakers are making price cuts and pushing promotional campaigns, such as the Honda Fit EV, but its sales are still far behind the Big 3 EVs (208 units sold in June for  the Fit EV).
  5. The Chevrolet Spark EV has been long awaited and saw very slow sales in its first month; this has been the case for most of these cars like the Ford Focus EV and Honda Fit EV. GM appears ready to make a significant commitment to marketing the Spark and, as mentioned in The Big Picture, is focusing on it torque power as an appealing message to get “car guys” down to the dealerships. GM will start sell­ing the Spark EV in South Korea by the end of this year, and will be bring­ing it to Europe as well.
  6. Overall, plug-in EV sales are seeing an upward climb – it had a 12.7% growth from the previous month and 163.5% jump from a year earlier. The six month totals are impressive, too – 41,047 in the first six months of this year versus 17,837 in the first half of 2012. Regardless of the influence of new model launches and incentives, people are buying these cars in much larger numbers.

Why driving cars is dropping in popularity in Southern California

traffic in LASouthern California has always been a key bellwether for transportation trends in the US and in the world. The region that had one of the best mass transit systems through the 1940s became the hub of auto sales and traffic congestion starting in the 1950s. Now that trend appears to be changing course.

Automotive News pointed to several key indicators showing that the love affair with the car is fading…

  • Light rail has been expanded 26% in the past eight years with 18 miles more of track coming by 2015. Bike lane networks have doubled to 292 miles. Bus and train ridership is growing – up nearly 5% in May 2013 versus May 2011.
  • Even more significant – the total number of passenger cars has declined in Los Angeles. The market rebounded from the recession, but the 2012 sales numbers were 28,000 less than five years earlier.
  • Consumers have a lot more options that gain their interest away from traditional cars – electric cars, hybrids, bike lanes, light-rail, and car-sharing plans such as Zipcar are on the rise.
  • Toyota and Honda have sold a lot of small-to-midsize cars in this market for several years and are putting a lot of emphasis now on hybrids, natural gas vehicles, and plug-in electric vehicles.
  • Traffic congestion is getting worse – LA had its longest congestion-related delays in the US in April. The average driver wasted 5.2 hours, up from 4.5 hours in April 2012.
  • Sharing rides is gaining in popularity especially with young people, through social circles, and there’s more interest in bus and rail rides and car sharing.