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Consultant’s notebook: Forget Facebook, best deal on alternative fuels

It’s been about two months since I launched LeSage Consulting – thanks very much for the support and feedback. Here are some of my notes on the experience so far……

Social Media Hits and Misses: As internet marketing guru Bob Bly wrote about last week, social media has limited value for B2B marketing – especially Facebook (which somehow produced $7 billion in ad revenue last year). Facebook is great for photo galleries, “friending,” and reading about the fun one of your old high school chums is having standing in line at Starbucks. Everyone has an account on Facebook and, I would suspect, that in the next five years, there will be 10,000 more Facebook-type sites customized to a plethora of groups – special interests, hobbies, geography, politics, spirituality, environmental, business networking, etc. I’m seeing a lot more value in LinkedIn and Twitter. LinkedIn is very good for networking with like-minded professionals (check out my Clean Transportation interest group) and getting people to subscribe to your e-newsletter and take your survey. I’ve been surprised to see how important Twitter has become for business networking and special interest groups. Some companies are announcing new product and service offerings on webinars coordinated with tweets.

Compressed natural gas (CNG) is doing the best in transportation fuel prices; charging and alternative fuel stations are seeing growth and propane is still number two after charging stations (with E85 close behind propane). For those interested in receiving monthly reports on fuel prices, sales figures on hybrids and electric vehicles, and stock market performance of AeroVironment, Clean Energy, Tesla Motors, and others, you can opt for a paid subscription to Green Auto Market Extended Edition. You can also find a free sample copy of it there, too, on this site.

The Value of Time: Consultants need to have specialized expertise in their fields from work experience, education, accomplishments, and professional networking relationships – not to mention thousands of hours out in the trenches finding out what’s really going on out there. As a former consulting colleague (and current significant other) says to me all the time – What’s your time worth? Sending a proposal to a current or prospective client with fees based on project cost, or hourly estimate, or some variation, is one thing. But what about writing a freelance article? You could put in a lot of hours, and do a couple of rewrites, for $500 (or less – thank you, Elance). Perhaps that article goes out to a well-respected mass market publication, or to a very specialized niche publication read by managers in your field. Then, yes that’s worth the time and energy – it’s effective marketing and it doesn’t really cost you anything. But then there are other situations that come up that remind me that some of that time spent is not worth it. For example, I’ve had people contact me recently on LinkedIn for networking and promotion. They got something out of it, but I didn’t seem to – beyond the annoying learning experience of not doing that again.

Big Picture: Cadillac ELR “Poolside” TV ad generates backlash; Fisker launches new website under new owner

Cadillac’s “Poolside” TV ad for its ELR extended range electric luxury car, which has been airing recently during the Winter Olympics and Oscars, has generated a lot of unintended backlash. It’s been enough for Ad Age to interview Cadillac advertising director Craig Bierley about it. He says that the TV commercial has been misconstrued – it’s not targeted to the wealthiest, but to self-made customers who’ve used “hard work and hustle” and are now making $200,000 a year more. It’s created a maelstrom of debate with right-wing commentators seeing it as affirmation of what’s made the US great; left-wing commentators see it as ugly American chest-thumping. Green Car Reports readers have felt strongly about it – a recent article generated heated debated and more than 300 comments. Uwe Ellinghaus, Cadillac’s global chief marketing officer, doesn’t have any problems with it. The TV ad is delivering what they’d intended. The early research Cadillac had done on the ad suggested “we would break through the clutter and generate a hell of a lot of buzz. Mission accomplished.” There’s always the question of what TV ads like this do to America’s (and Cadillac’s) image in important global markets.

And in other clean transportation news……

The new website for Fisker Automotive speaks to its rebirth as an automaker now owned by Wanxiang America, the US arm of the largest auto parts company in China. “Fisker Automotive is poised & ready for a new beginning,” it states on the revamped website. It looks like the extended range Fisker Karma will return as it was before.
EcoMotors, the Michigan-based OPOC engine maker backed by Bill Gates and Vinod Kholsa, has created a joint venture in China with a subsidiary of First Auto Works (FAW), which is a Chinese state-owned auto manufacturing company. The FAW subsidiary, First Auto Works Jingye Engine Company, is investing more than $200 million into the venture that has been named BEM Shanxi Co. That venture will build an advanced engine designed by EcoMotors in 2015. EcoMotors previously established a similar deal with another Chinese company, Zhongding Power, nearly a year ago. Both Chinese companies are utilizing EcoMotor’s OPOC engine, which is said to be cheaper and more compact than conventional gasoline and diesel engines, and will deliver higher fuel economy and fewer emissions.
Linear City Development said it’s now offering the nation’s first apartment building to provide free electric vehicle charging for tenants. Linear City has installed 20 Level 2 EV charge stations at The Elysian, a 96-unit conversion of Los Angeles’ historic Metropolitan Water District (MWD) headquarters. It will cover the cost of electricity for the life of every original EV-driving tenant’s lease.
BMW is getting strong initial orders for its i3 electric car, Norbert Reithofer, BMW’s CEO, said at the Geneva Motor Show. It’s already available in Europe and will soon roll out in the US and Asia. Orders might be more than the automaker has production capacity for right now, he said. The model with the range extender (which can go 160 miles versus 80 for the battery electric model) is getting more purchase activity from early buyers, he said.
Toyota Chairman Takeshi Uchiyamada, father of the original Toyota Prius, foresees hybrid models making up 20% of global auto sales; they’re at the 13% to 14% mark now. Honda may add to those numbers; the company issued a press release stating its renewed commitment to hybrid technology. That may have been damage control after news broke last month about one of its original hybrid models, the Insight, being pulled off production lines by the end of this year.

AeroVironment and KnowWhatYouDrive educate EV car shoppers

Education and accessible, clear information is needed out there to get past the stumbling block that holds consumers back from owning an electric vehicle. If you take a look at a new educational website for electric vehicle (EV) shoppers, you’ll find answers to frequently asked questions:

What’s the difference between EVs, plug-in hybrids, and hybrids?
Why lithium ion batteries?
What do you get out of it? Why make the investment?
What’s the latest on charging technologies?
How long does it take to charge and how far do you travel?

AeroVironment is working with Saginaw, Mich.-based KnowWhatYouDrive on an educational initiative to help consumers take the plunge and purchase an EV and a home charging port. The free online course at AVEV101.com walks through all of the questions that typically come up for car shoppers – or those with some interest in owning an EV. Details are presented on the types of available charging stations, charging time, and how the installation process works. You can test your electric vehicle IQ and instantly earn $25, $50, or $100 coupon codes for an electric vehicle charging station and installation.

“Education is one of the key factors that will help speed EV adoption,” said Wahid Nawabi, senior vice president and general manager of AeroVironment’s Efficient Energy Systems business segment. Doug Taylor, founder of KnowWhatYouDrive, says that it can be a daunting task with all of the EVs on the market now through Ford, Nissan, Fiat, and other OEMs. KnowWhatYouDrive works with charging station supplier Eaton on its website, and offers a discount program for EV charging stations.

AeroVironment has been committed to making the EV ownership and charging experience more accessible to consumers. It launched a dealer program last year offering a turnkey residential charging package. Consumers can purchase the EV and the charger in combination at the time of sale and build it into the financing. The home installation process is built into the transaction so that it can take place in a faster, more seamless way than it typically happens.

PERC’s Roy Willis on propane’s major milestone with UPS

UPS, along with Frito-Lay, have become testing grounds for alternative fuel vehicles in delivery fleets. You may have noticed that UPS was given a lot of attention last week for adding 1,000 propane-powered delivery trucks to its US fleet – joining up with electric, hybrid, CNG, LNG, biomethane, and nearly 900 propane-powered trucks in its Canadian fleet, in the corporation’s sustainability initiative. UPS will also initially install 50 propane fueling stations at UPS locations mainly in rural areas in Louisiana and Oklahoma with other states pending. That $70 million vehicle and fueling investment will allow UPS to displace about 3.5 million gallons of conventional gasoline and diesel per year. Propane Education & Research Council (PERC), a non-profit propane technology incubator, is playing a key role in integrating propane autogas and refueling with the UPS fleet. UPS and PERC were able to secure certifications with the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the California Air Resources Board, in alliance with equipment manufacturers. UPS did a test run this past winter in Gainesville, Ga., with 20 propane-powered delivery trucks, and expanded its order with Freightliner Custom Chassis Corp.

“The opportunity to road test new propane vehicles and fueling equipment with one of the most sophisticated fleets in the country is a major milestone for the propane industry,” said Roy Willis, president and CEO of PERC. The UPS deployment of propane vehicles and refueling infrastructure is a smart move and good investment, Willis says – making greater use of clean, efficient energy resource with growing domestic supplies. Willis says that other fleets, such as beverage companies and bakeries, are starting to show a lot more interest in propane – as what UPS does is carefully observed. Fleet managers need to see a business case made that propane-powered vehicles are worth the investment. They know UPS takes logistics very seriously and tests out the technologies and fuels long before adding them to their fleet – such as the test fleet in Georgia.

PERC has been collaborating for several years with Freightliner, CleanFuel USA, and Powertrain Integration to build safe, clean, and efficient propane vehicles. UPS will be using CleanFuel USA’s Liquid Propane Injection (LPI) system in the planned purchase of the propane delivery trucks. CleanFuel USA will also provide several of the fueling stations out of 50 planned across the US. The UPS delivery truck is built on the Freightliner Custom Chassis MT-45 walk-in van with the LPI system, and a 6.0-liter engine by Powertrain Integration.

The school bus market has been adding a lot of propane-powered buses, Willis said. Bluebird sold about 3,600 of these propane school buses last year, and Thomas Built will be introducing a new model soon. PERC is also working on dual-fuel research projects combining diesel and propane. Direct injection of propane is also being tested by PERC with the Southwest Research Institute. Direct injection can bring better horsepower and torque, plus fuel economy improvements. While most propane vehicles have been deployed in medium-duty fleet vehicles, direct injection could be a bridge to bringing propane to more light duty passenger cars like taxis and police cars. It could be an OEM product with warranty coverage at its dealerships and may be announced by the end of the year, Willis said.

The technology is pretty well proven, according to Willis, with propane-powered vehicles widely used in fleets for several years. The fueling infrastructure is growing – such as school bus fleets adding them to maintenance yards and propane retailers bringing them to their local markets at public stations, which have been supported by state grants and incentives. The UPS announcement is probably a tipping point for more fleets to adopt propane in vehicle and fueling technologies.

Big Picture: EPA releases finalized Tier 3 standards on emissions; Tesla Motors has another revolutionary goal: a Gigafactory

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) yesterday finalized what it calls “Tier 3 standards” requiring gasoline sulfur levels to be reduced by two thirds from 30 parts per million (ppm) to 10 ppm. EPA says that its new emission standards for cars and gasoline will significantly reduce harmful pollution and prevent thousands of premature deaths and illnesses, while also enabling efficiency improvements in the cars and trucks. Smog emissions, including nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds, are expected to drop 80% compared to today’s vehicles and particulate matter (soot) will drop by 70%. These standards will begin being implemented in model year 2017. The Tier 3 standards are being supported by automakers, labor, consumers, and public health advocates. Once fully in place, the standards will help avoid up to 2,000 premature deaths per year and 50,000 cases of respiratory ailments in children, according to the EPA.

And in other clean transportation news……

Tesla Motors has yet another potential breakthrough concept in the works –its “Gigafactory” concept could bring more affordable electric vehicles to market through a large scale lithium battery factory. It would mean investing up to $5 billion with partners in a battery plant that can supply 500,000 electric vehicles a year by 2020, after opening up in 2017. Panasonic may be considering joining in; Panasonic is currently Tesla’s largest supplier of lithium ion batteries. “In cooperation with strategic battery manufacturing partners, we’re planning to build a large scale factory that will allow us to achieve economies of scale and minimize costs through innovative manufacturing, reduction of logistics waste, optimization of co-located processes and reduced overhead,” Telsa posted last week on its blog. By the end of the first year of production, the per kilowatt cost of the battery pack could be reduced by more than 30%. Tesla is looking for plant locations in Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas and said that site selection will be happening soon. When you view the charts Tesla compiled, the first one shows that its new battery factory will be producing more batteries by 2020 than all the other lithium battery makers combined are making today – that’s quite a claim.
Nissan did better in Leaf sales – at 1,425 cars sold it was a record for the month of February, more than double the amount from a year earlier. That makes for 12 straight months of year-over-year sales increases. Its top two markets last month were San Francisco and Atlanta; the rest of the top five was Los Angeles, Seattle, and Portland. The Chevrolet Volt’s sales have been seeing a decline – at 1,210 it was higher than January’s 918, but down a third from February 2013’s total of 1,626. Tesla continues to not report monthly sales, but the estimate was 1,000 to 1,200 units of the Model S sold.
Honda appears ready to pull its Insight hybrid off the market – one of the very first hybrids to come to market when it was introduced in 1999, before the Toyota Prius. The original two-seater hybrid got even better mileage than the Prius or the Honda Civic hybrid. It was redesigned in 2009 with a backseat, but it failed to grow in sales numbers even though it sold for less than $20,000.
President Obama is bringing to medium- and heavy-duty trucks and buses what was previously brought to passenger cars – a second level of fuel efficiency standards. The first round covered model years 2014 through 2018; the new standards will be in place in about tow years and will extend the rules into the next decade.
Even though ECOtality is out of business, its Blink electric vehicle charging stations are still around. IKEA added four stations at one of its Chicago-area stores as part of its partnership with Car Charging Group, Inc. IKEA started installing stations in 2011 in Arizona, California, Oregon, and Washington and wants to place them at 55 US locations.
Daimler will be launching a new battery electric vehicle in partnership with China’s BYD. It will go through the Denza brand and be shown as a concept hatchback car at the next Beijing Motor Show. It will be called the “NEV” – or New Energy Vehicle, which means it’s being built for China. One of the popular car trends in that market will be met – rear seating will have the feel of a lounge area, perfect for riding in when you have a chauffeur in the front seat doing all the driving.

Why the Cadillac ELR TV commercial is a very bad idea

Rex Parker, professor of transportation design, at Istituto Europeo di Design (IED) in Sao Paulo, Brazil, called me last week and expressed distress and frustration with Cadillac’s “Poolside” ELR TV commercial prominently featured in the Winter Olympics (and in the photo to the left). Parker, a former designer with major automakers, had a lot to say about it being misunderstood overseas, fueling more tension and misunderstanding during a time when US TV commercials go global and viral through Youtube and social media. His comments speak to what I see as being the most significant trend shaping the near-term future of the auto industry – globalization. As I’ve covered and commented upon many times in Green Auto Market, automakers and suppliers are now truly multi-national conglomerates serving markets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Latin America. Chinese OEMs and suppliers are the most obvious example, as Fisker Automotive, Volvo, General Motors, BYD, Tesla Motors, and others would tell you. It’s not a good time to be bragging about the US being No. 1 in everything, nor is it accurate; and it rubs against ideals that a lot of people still have about this country – a land of equality in all things regardless of where you live.

The main issue Parker has with the Cadillac ad is that many people around the world won’t get the satirical, humorous angle – and will likely see it as an extreme symbol of stereotypical American arrogance and wealthy lifestyle perks. As you can see here, Parker doesn’t hold back on expressing his opinions on auto industry trends. Here are a few points he made on the phone last week……

Americans traveling abroad will usually tell you this type of TV commercial is a very bad idea. Parker was in France when this commercial hit the airwaves, and it inflamed French viewers. This type of message hurts Americans traveling abroad.
Parker, who is half Brazilian and half American, was in Brazil last summer when a street riot in his US hometown of Huntington Beach, Calif., got a lot of media attention (which I can attest to, being stuck on Pacific Coast Highway while attempting to drive through Huntington Beach during this unexpected debacle). Brazilians were informed about it while it was going on – which is ironic given that it was a modest riot without casualties. But the internet gave them instantaneous information – and what happens in the US is taken very seriously in Brazil and around the world.
The Cadillac commercial conveys “American arrogance and sets us back generations,” Parker said. The days of 1950’s US Secretary of State John Foster Dulles explaining US foreign policy are long gone, he said.
I would also add, having been raised by a World War II vet with plenty of lively tales that I heard while growing up, that the days of post-WWII gratitude to the US are long gone. US traditions for individual rights, personal freedom and expression, holding elections, having open markets for developing industries, technology breakthroughs, and enjoying multi-media entertainment, will continue to influence what people around the world perceive and value; but toying with images and messages of what others resent, and sometimes hate, about the US, is not a good way to sell cars or improve international relations.
You can certainly make the case that the US government is dominated by an autocracy of interest groups who’ve stuffed pockets with lots of campaign contributions; and that the US has serious social issues to deal with – such as the brutal impact crystal methamphetamine is having in a lot of communities. You can also talk to people who’ve lived in or visited other countries around the world that are quite unstable and struggling – they’ll explain why they live in the US and probably won’t be leaving. Those are better images to convey in a TV commercial, as you can typically see watching TV lately. If you were watching the Winter Olympics, you probably saw Chevrolet’s new campaign called “The New Us.” It shows a diverse range of families under the theme, “What it means to be a family hasn’t changed; what a family looks like, has. This is the new us.”
Sell the car: The best performing and most memorable car commercials show off the car – it might be driving up a hillside at peak performance, or featuring a young couple or family traveling together and feeling good. General Motors’ Cadillac division has done a great job for about 20 years now in selling the product in its ad campaigns; the ELR has what people are impressed about with GM’s Voltec drivetrain, and with what Cadillac designers have placed into platforms and dashboard panels. The Cadillac ELR “Poolside” commercial only shows the car being charged and its dashboard control panel for a few seconds. The commercial’s agenda looks like something else besides marketing the product.

Taking a deeper look at alternative fuel vehicle sales figures

Take a look at this chart, which WardsAuto published in late February showing something quite rare: detailed sales numbers on every type of alternative fuel vehicle sold in the US over the past five years in the light-duty passenger vehicle market. WardsAuto is getting these numbers from its own internal database of sales figures. I’m not sure what the “Unspecified Gas/Diesel” category means, and WardsAuto has not yet responded to my inquiry about it. However, looking at each of the vehicle categories offers a comprehensive view of market trends…….

Hybrids continue to make up the largest share of US new vehicle sales for alt-fuel vehicles, but “clean diesel” isn’t far behind – 3.2% of total market share for hybrids in 2013 versus 2.85% for diesel. Some would argue that diesel shouldn’t be analyzed at all as an alternative fuel – it still comes entirely from oil; regardless, it is getting considered as an alternative by a few analysts as more Americans are starting to own them for passenger cars for the first time ever in place of gasoline engine vehicles. Strong performance and fuel efficiency are helping German automakers sell them in this market, and US automakers are starting to get into that space.
Electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles made up .64% of new vehicle sales last year – only two thirds of a percent. However, the growth rate since starting plug-in sales in late 2010 is outstripping where hybrid sales, mainly from Toyota and Honda, were performing in their first years in the early 2000s. There are more EVs coming to market this year and beyond, which should help grow their sales numbers – along with pricing coming down and more charging stations being installed around the country.
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle sales are still very small; the Hyundai Tucson Fuel Cell vehicle is going to be on the market by early summer and has a production volume target of 1,000 units through 2015. There will be other models coming on the market through Toyota and Honda next year.
Hybrid sales are nearing 500,000 units per year, jumping up significantly in 2012. Forecasters, including JD Power and Associates, see hybrids growing in sales percentages in the next 10 years. There’s a lot more hybrid vehicle options at dealerships now than about five years ago, and that will continue to grow.
Compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicle numbers are very small with very little available on the retail market – the Honda Civic Natural Gas being about it. The Ford F-150 half-ton that can run on natural gas and propane came on the market last summer, and Chrysler and GM have heavier pickups more suited to commercial usage than passenger. Parent company Fiat Chrysler Automobiles has interest in more CNG-powered vehicles coming to the US, as natural gas has played an important role in Italian transportation since the 1950s.

Big Picture: Fisker Karma coming back to dealerships, Tesla financial losses could be offset by “gigafactory”

Fisker Automotive’s new owner has been shedding more light on where the luxury extended range sports carmaker is headed. Pin Ni, head of Wanxiang America (the US division of Wanxiang Group, China’s largest auto parts company), told Automotive News that the Karma will restart production as early as this year at its Finland plant; the Karma will be sold again in the US and Europe. Production could happen in the US as well, once sales move forward. Ni said there’s a “potential partner out of Michigan.” There’s always the former General Motors plant in Delaware, but Fisker Automotive may stay away from it. Long term, Wanxiang may set up production in China where there’s a lot of government purchase subsidies for cars like the Fisker Karma. Ni also commented on the Fisker Atlantic; Wanxiang wants to complete development of this mid-sized plug-in hybrid. It’s positioned to be more affordable model that is likely to be produced at higher volume than the Karma.

And in other clean transportation news………

Tesla Motors sold 22,247 cars last year, pulled in $2 billion in revenue, and took a $74 million loss. This year’s financials could be similar with speeding up production, starting production of the Model X, and expanding globally. Tesla also reported a second set of financial results outside of the generally accepted accounting principles – that one looked much better with a $46 million fourth quarter profit, which was up from $16 million in the third quarter. Tesla CEO Elon Musk also coined another phrase for how Tesla will rise to its challenges – the company may develop a “gigafactory” that would produce lithium batteries for its vehicles at much higher volume and much lower cost. More cash would be needed to do so, and with the company’s stock price so high, now could be a good time to make that investment, Musk said.
Check out two reports from the US Department of Energy. “A Guide to the Lessons Learned from the Clean Cities Community Electric Vehicle Readiness Projects” pulls together coverage of 16 different projects around the country. “State of the States: Fuel Cells in America 2013” looks at energy being produced at stationary fuel cell installations, fuel cell forklift deployments, and fuel cell buses, trucks, and cars placed in service.
The Kia Soul EV is being equipped with an advanced power pack featuring lithium-ion polymer battery cells supplied by SK Innovation. The battery pack features 192 lithium-ion polymer batter cells in eight modules that can output 27 kWh.
Echo Automotive will be adding the Chevrolet Express and GMV Savana full-sized vans to its plug-in hybrid lineup. Production will start in the first quarter of 2015 and will follow conversions of Ford E-Series vans.
Paice LLC filed a lawsuit against Ford Motor Co. for alleged patent infringement on its hybrid vehicle technology. The Baltimore company has won a similar case against Toyota Motor Corp. Paice said in its lawsuit that hybrid and plug-in versions of Ford’s C-Max and Fusion, and the Lincoln MKZ, infringe on patents that address ways to control electric motors and gasoline engines for increased fuel efficiency and reduced emissions. The two companies had made a deal in 2010 where Ford licensed one of Paice’s patents. Negotiations haven’t gone well, according to Paice, hence the lawsuit filing.
Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn delivered two Leafs to the Kingdom of Bhutan last week in honor of the king’s birthday. He pledged more EVs to help the government electrify its fleet and the nation’s taxis. Nissan wants to showcase its technology in an unexpected market.

Cadillac ELR and BMW i8 Olympics TV commercials – How good were they?

While Super Bowl commercials are infamous for being the most expensive and most watched TV spots in the world, there might be a better media outlet for marketing new cars: the Olympics. While many of the commercials featured Olympic athletes skiing and skating by, there were two that gave a lot of time to luxury extended range electric vehicles: the 2014 Cadillac ELR and the 2015 BMW i8. And they were shown a lot more times than the single viewing you get on the Super Bowl (although the Olympics only happen every four years, or two years if you count the staggered schedule with summer and winter games). As for these Olympic TV commercials, my question would be: How good were they for marketing the cars?

The Cadillac ELR commercial plays off the competitive edge the US takes to the Olympics, and the upscale lifestyle lived by those driving the ELR – which is in direct competition with Tesla Model S and BMW i Series. “You work hard, create your own luck, and you’ve got to believe anything is possible,” well-recognized TV and movie actor Neal McDonough says as he unplugs his Cadillac ELR and takes off for the office. Americans don’t take the month of August off, like Europeans do, for vacation. “Because we’re crazy, driven, hard-working believers, that’s why.” Those other countries might think Americans are nuts, but we’ve had the Wright Brothers, Bill Gates, Les Paul, and Muhammad Ali – and we landed on the moon first, he says.

While it’s watchable and humorous, it spends very little time onscreen with the plug-in coupe, which is a very lush and impressive car to experience visually and hands on; one would think the car should make up most of the commercial’s focus and not just a few seconds at the end. Yet the commercial is more about style and social commentary than marketing the Cadillac ELR. The production schedule for the ELR is limited and there were only 41 units sold in the US in January; but that’s more than the BMW i Series sold in the US – it’s still very early for the BMW i3 and i8.

I think the BMW commercial gets a little bit closer to hitting the mark. The “Hello Future” ad features a voice over from Arthur C. Clarke’s 1964 BBC presentation. The famous science fiction novelist (with 2001: A Space Odyssey among his books) says, “The only thing we can be sure of about the future is that it will be absolutely fantastic. So, if what I say now seems to you to be very reasonable, then I will have failed completely. Only if what I tell you appears absolutely unbelievable have we any chance of visualizing the future as it really will happen.”

Near the end of the commercial, the BMW i8 appears in the dark and then takes shape, with its raising “butterfly doors” (reminiscent of the upcoming Tesla Model X and its raising “falcon doors”). This car will sell for $136,000 and is supposed to have the same performance as a BMW 335i. So, the audience will be very limited, too. Leasing will be necessary – the price will come down but it’s still very steep. The Cadillac ELR starts at about $75,000 and is more competitive with the Tesla Model S, but it’s also limited in its audience size.

For automakers to turn profits on EVs, it has to be worth the investment and reach a level of scale that makes it competitive with some of their ICE models. These niched luxury extended range cars aren’t going in that direction; they do raise consumer interest in the new alternative powertrain, but they’re too pricy to assist in widespread adoption of EVs. They get federal tax and state incentives, but the price is still very high – even with good lease packages. There’s some public opinion out there that EVs are just a toy for a very small percentage of wealthy Americans, which can get in the way of mainstream acceptance.

Educating and training the electrified transportation workforce

It was fascinating to participate last week at “Transportation Electrification Curriculum Roadmap Workshop,” which was organized by Brett Williams and J.R. DeShazo of UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation. It was hosted by Southern California Edison at its SCE Energy Education Center in Irwindale, Calif. The focus of that day was on challenges being faced by education programs training students in community colleges and universities to serve the growing industry of electric vehicles (EVs), electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE), and charging infrastructure.

I was wearing my consultant hat – it was not a public media event – but I would like to present some of the important information shared that day (identities of participants beyond the two organizers will remain anonymous for now). Much of the insightful information came from instructors and directors at education and training programs on campuses all over Southern California. Along with education professionals, there were people from government agencies, utilities, automakers, fleet management, and research centers. Here’s a few interesting points that were made that day…..

Community college and university administrators have been very restrictive about how much funding they’ve been willing to contribute to the education programs. Program directors had to get creative about securing funding, and much of this has come from grant funding outside the school and from corporate contributors.
Part of the day was spent analyzing job categories and statistics compiled by Luskin Center based primarily on the US Bureau of Labor Statistics job categories. There’s concern that the job definitions and categories are limited right now – there’s a lot of new and emerging jobs in the US economy that include solar energy and electrified transportation. So the federal and state reports that education programs are using now (and which influence funding) are limited and need to see some change. Educators would like to see the jargon for job classifications standardized in a way making it clear and accessible for everyone.
Getting young people engaged in seeking training and education in electrified transportation is a bit of a challenge. The college programs are growing, but educators are wanting to inform communities about their programs – and that would include high school teachers and administrators, students, parents, local government agencies, and others.
Program directors are spending as much of their time getting their students jobs and securing funding as they are teaching classes. That’s where creating internships and externships for students is paying off, along with student workshops and research projects.
Students are interested in becoming certified service technicians for dealers and fleets; others are getting graduate degrees in engineering to meet the growing demand for advanced vehicle technology integration. There’s also a lot of need for EVSE and charging infrastructure workers to keep EVs on the road.
The National Institute for Automotive Service Excellence (ASE) is working on certification for electric and hybrid vehicle technicians. That’s very much needed out there.
Another area of interest and training programs is “first responder” safety training for paramedics, firefighters, and others who rescue drivers from EV collisions. As students have asked me about when I’ve done high school presentations, there is a good deal of concern about safety when working with EVs. “Second responders” is also a big group – such as tow truck drivers and storage and wrecking yards. Cars can potentially catch on fire up to a week later, so education and training is needed in this area.
Another question: What to do about electric passenger cars and commercial vehicles (such as bucket trucks and delivery vans) that come off warranty coverage and need regular service?
Social media has its advantages in getting the word out to young people and EV enthusiasts. One participant shared that 50% of EV information in social media is being posted on Twitter. Posting photos and videos on social media is getting a lot of hits – with instructors teaching students what they should know about EV technology. Smartphone EV charging apps are also getting a lot of interest.
One point that I made at the end (and rambled on a little too long about – my apologies to the group) is that I’d like to see questions that EV buyers ask answered in these programs so that instructors and students can address them. As I learned once again last week in the Green Auto Market reader survey results, there’s a lot of concern among industry stakeholders about how we can effectively answer frequently asked questions that consumers, fleets, and other vehcle buyers have. They want to know if it’s worth their investment of time and money – acquisition costs and incentives, lifecycle ownership costs, and how it all compares to traditional gasoline ICE vehicles; and then there’s always range anxiety. Then there’s the question of the chicken or the egg – what needs to happen to make this all work – more affordable electric vehicles on the market or enough charging stations to alleviate fears of being stranded.
This working group on EV workforce training will be meeting again to keep these critical issues moving forward for the next generation of the EV workforce.