Month: January 2018

Plug-in sales pass million mark, How green vehicles did in the U.S. last year

Newsworthy stories:  Global plug-in electrified vehicles surpassed the one million mark in sales during 2017, according to a new report from Navigant Research. The
report anticipates that annual market growth will continue at 38% through 2020. Since PEVs rolled out in 2011, sales have grown by 40% or more each year. The rollout of long-range EVs at prices below $40,000 will have much do with it, Navigant Research says………….. The Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance has set up a $200 million mobility technology fund. CEO Carlos Ghosn will be announcing details during a news conference at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas early next week. The alliance had also announced plans to set up a consortium that will bring robotaxis into commercial use. That will include ride sharing services and autonomous vehicle technologies…………..  CES 2018, which will run through Jan. 12 in Las Vegas, will be a showcase for autonomous vehicle technology and has become probably the most important event for the auto industry. Automakers and tech suppliers will be demonstrating their systems that will include 3D solid state Lidar. Chinese company Byton introduced its debut concept vehicle, a connectivity-focused electric crossover. Hyundai will showcase a trio of new technologies focused on connecting future technology with evolving mobility challenges. Hyundai’s next-gen fuel cell electric vehicle equipped with new Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) technologies will be featured and its new name revealed at the show.

How green vehicles performed last year in the U.S.:  Electrified vehicles had a better year in 2017 for the U.S. auto market. Plug-in vehicles were up significantly from about 158,000 units sold in 2016. It was also impressive compared to overall U.S. auto sales being down for the first time since 2009.

The Toyota Prius Liftback was the top selling hybrid at 65,631 units sold; though it was down 33.6% from 2016. Hybrid sales finished the year at 364,174, up 4.9% over 2016. The Ford Fusion Hybrid finished the year in second place at 57,474 sold, and the Toyota RAV4 came in third at 50,559.
As for plug-in vehicle segments:
Battery electric vehicle sales in 2017: 104,487 (up 24% over 2016)
Plug-in hybrid sales in 2017: 89,992. (up 23.4% over 2016)

During December, the Tesla Model S and Model X led the way in battery electric vehicles. For the year, the Model X saw more growth at a 20% increase, while the Model S was down 9% for the year. The Tesla Model 3 had disappointing results at 1,050 units sold in December – much lower than the company had promised earlier to manufacture and deliver.

The Chevy Bolt did very well, coming in close to 25,000 units sold even though its wasn’t fully available until mid-2017.

The Nissan Leaf had a weak sales month. Production of the new Leaf has begun, and sales volumes are expected to increase in the coming months.

The Toyota Prius Prime continues to lead the plug-in hybrid segment, up significantly over 2017. It’s edged out the Chevy Volt, which was down nearly 18% from 2017.

The days of the Volt may be numbered. General Motors is looking into ending production of the Volt in 2022, according to a report by AutoForecast Solutions. Sluggish sales of the Volt, and improvements made to battery packs in range and cost, are influencing GM management to phase out of plug-in hybrids. By now, GM had been expected to launch spin-offs based on the Volt drivetrain, but the business plan has instead shifted over to battery electric and fuel cell vehicles.

 

Tesla resets target dates for Model 3 production, VW partnership for smart mobility services

Newsworthy stories:  Tesla Inc. is slowly ramping up to meet its original production target for the Model 3, moving the 5,000 unit target into the second quarter. In its quarterly statement this week, the company announced that it delivered 1,550 Model 3 small sedans in Q4 2017, up from 220 the previous quarter. Tesla expects to reach a 2,500 unit weekly rate by the end of the first quarter, and the 5,000 per week milestone by the end of the second quarter. It was a good quarter and year for the electric automaker, with 101,312 of the Model S and Model X vehicles delivered in 2017 – a 33% increase over 2016. It was the best quarter ever for Tesla, with 15,200 Model S and 13,120 Model X vehicles delivered, representing a 27% increase over Q4 2016. As for the new Model 3, the company will “continue to focus on quality and efficiency rather than simply pushing for the highest possible volume in the shortest period of time.”…………. Westport Fuel Systems Inc. has entered into a development and supply agreement with Tata Motors for their 4 cylinder and 6 cylinder natural gas spark-ignited commercial vehicle engines to meet the Indian government’s new Bharat Stage VI emission standards, scheduled to take effect in April of 2020. Westport Fuel Systems has been working with Indian automaker Tata Motors since 2012, most recently working together on developing their next generation of natural gas spark-ignited engines to meet the BS-VI emission standards. Upon completion of the program, Westport will be supplying the critical natural gas components to Tata Motors, including advanced gas injection systems and controls…………..  CALSTART’s Clean Transportation Summit – California: 2030 will be taking place March 26-27 at the Sacramento Convention Center. This summit succeeds the Clean, Low Carbon Fuels Summit, which ran annually for the past five years with the purpose of building political support for the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS). The first day of this year’s summit kicks off with concurrent sessions focused on electrification, Low NOx Natural Gas Vehicles market development, voucher incentives, and opportunities and issues for autonomous, electric and connected vehicles. The day concludes with a reception followed by a full day of General Session programming. Early bird discount registration will end on January 25. Learn more about the event here……………  U.S. car owners now lease almost 80% of battery electric vehicles and 55 percent of plug-in hybrids, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The lease rate for the country’s entire new vehicle purchases has been around 30% recently. However, Tesla does not reveal how many of its vehicles are leased. Consumers seem to be turning to leasing for the payment savings and because used vehicle values for electric vehicles have been weak in the marketplace. Consumers concerned about used vehicle values also tend to expect that the next generation of EVs with new technology and longer range will have stronger value on the used car market……………. California would ban the sale of new vehicles powered by fossil fuels in 2040 under legislation introduced Wednesday in the state Legislature. If passed, it would be a significant part of the state’s drive to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80% from 1990 levels by 2050. The law would require that all new vehicles sold after Jan. 1, 2040, would be zero emission vehicles such as battery electric or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. “We’re at an inflection point: we’ve got to address the harmful emissions that cause climate change,” said Democratic Assemblymember Phil Ting, the bill’s author.

VW adding to its automated mobility presence:  The Volkswagen Group and self-driving technology company, Aurora Innovation, announced a strategic collaboration ahead of the 2018 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas. Aurora Innovation also signed a deal with Hyundai this week, similar to its alliance with VW, to bring its self-driving software into commercial use. Based in Palo Alto, Calif., and Pittsburgh, Penn., Aurora designs and builds self-driving technology, partnering with automakers to integrate, pilot and deploy advanced self-driving platforms into vehicles. Founded by CEO Chris Urmson, Chief Product Officer Sterling Anderson and Chief Technical Officer Drew Bagnell, Aurora is working to solve today’s most complex AI, automation and engineering challenges to improve transportation and positively impact cities. Urmson had played a leading role at Google’s self-driving car unit, before it became Waymo.

The collaboration between VW and Aurora aims to bring self-driving electric vehicles in cities as Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) fleets. The collaboration will bring together a world-class engineering team to the ongoing development of software and hardware for driverless vehicles, and for mobility services for urban and rural areas. Cities can use the smart mobility solutions to help solve their traffic, pollution, and traffic safety challenges.

Automakers have been making serious investments in mobility and autonomous technology companies in the past two years. Ford acquired on-demand shuttle service Chariot in 2016 and then bought a majority stake in self-driving startup Argo.AI for $1 billion. Daimler now owns Hailo, MyTaxi, Taxibeat, and Ridescout. General Motors owns Cruise Automation and has a stake in Lyft.

Volkswagen’s MOIA division is preparing to bring mobility services to cities around the world. In early December, MOIA unveiled an all-electric car at the TechCrunch Disrupt Berlin event. It’s been designed to provide usable space for up to six passengers. It will make its official debut in service on roads beginning in Hamburg in 2018, where the company expects to put about 200 cars on the road at first. It’s based on ridesharing for users who seek to pool their vehicle use.

EVs make top news story of the year, What soft oil prices mean for the U.S.

Newsworthy stories:  What made Automotive News’ No. 1 news story of the year for 2017? “Virtually every automaker becomes an EV evangelist,” is the lead story, even though EVs didn’t even make the the top 10 for the previous year. More than 100 battery-electric models will be sent to dealerships globally within five years. Its become easier to list which automakers don’t have big plans for EVs in the near future. Cheaper batteries will drive it, along with several countries saying they’ll ban gasoline-powered vehicles within a few decades…………… LeEco CEO Jia Yueting had been ordered by Chinese regulators to return to China before the end of 2017, but did not make that appearance. Jia had said he’d stayed in the U.S. to do fundraising for his other electric car company, Faraday Future. The Beijing branch of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued a notice last week ordering the CEO to return to China to address mounting debt and to protect investors’ rights. Jia said he’d asked his brother, Jia Yuemin, to meet with the commission last Friday to provide a report. “I am deeply sorry and blame myself for the negative impact of LeEco’s debt crisis. The fundraising for Faraday Future in the United States is making significant progress and there are many tasks I need to push forward in order to ensure the production and timely delivery of the FF91,” he said in a statement…………. Lyft will be showing off an autonomous ride-hailing service at CES in Las Vegas later this month, in partnership with Aptiv Plc and its automated driving platform. Aptiv was launched in December when auto supplier Delphi Automotive split into two companies. Lyft and Aptiv will offer rides to attendees at CES in the “point-to-point” ride-hailing system utilizing Lyft’s mobile app and Aptiv’s platform. Lyft is poised to play a leading role in working with technology partners to tap into the ride-hailing firm’s resource of providing about one million rides per day. Analysts predict that autonomous ride-hailing and ridesharing mobility services will lead the way in adoption of self-driving cars.

What declining oil prices mean:  Shale oil drillers have become good enough at what they due to bring record highs to U.S. crude oil production, according to a Washington Post feature.

Shale oil drills can now plunge deep, pivot, and tunnel sideways for miles until they find an oil pocket, said Frank Verrastro, senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Here a few trends to follow on the impact of U.S. oil production capacity:

  • Global oil demand is increasing in an expanding world economy, and production cutbacks by Russia and OPEC nations have helped push the price of a barrel of oil above $60 in recent days.
  • Trump administration policies, along with bountiful supply from shale oil drills and hydraulic fracturing (fracking), are expected to keep oil and gasoline prices down in the U.S. Trump administration has approved the controversial Keystone XL pipeline and may be loosening offshore oil drilling regulations. Another move could come from the tax bill that was just approved on Dec. 22; it allows oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska, a potentially rich oil supply but a move that conservationists and environmentalists oppose.
  • This trend will be increasing U.S. energy independence even more, taking away the type of pressure felt during the 1970s during the OPEC oil embargoes.
  • High gas and diesel prices have been critical selling points for the marketing of electric and alternative fuel vehicles. As Tesla and a few competitors have found, there are other strong points to make and experiences to offer car shoppers. Driving one of the cars is the best one, and answering questions about the environmental gains made in air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions; plus savings in lifecycle costs even if gas prices stay down through this year.

Chevy Volt ending production in 2022, How to reach consumers the right way

Newsworthy events for the new year:  General Motors may be shifting its focus away from the Chevrolet Volt and other plug-in hybrids and onto battery electric vehicles like the Chevrolet Bolt. The company is reportedly looking at ending production of the Volt in 2022, according to a report by AutoForecast Solutions. Sluggish sales of the Volt, and improvements made to battery packs in range and cost, are influencing GM management to phase of out of plug-in hybrids. By now, GM had been expected to launch spin-offs based on the Volt drivetrain, but the business plan has instead shifted over to rolling out two more all-electric vehicles over the next 10 months. At least 20 all-electric or fuel-cell models are due to come out by 2023………..  The health impact on humans from air pollution has been researched in a Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) study, finding it contributes to more than 20,000 fatalities a year in the U.S. The study used Medicare files and air pollution data looking at fatalities between 2000 and 2012; the study found that day-to-day increases in air pollution, even at levels that had been considered acceptable, have devastating consequences. Those impacted had lived in areas with greater exposure to fine particulate matter (PM 2.5), which are small particles of soot that easily enter the lungs and bloodstream…………  China has seen the impact of a rapidly growing vehicle population in recent years, with heavy air pollution setting off hazard warnings in cities like Beijing. The government is adding another measure to fight off air pollution by ending sales of 553 vehicle models that don’t meet fuel-consumption standards. Beginning January 1, production has been halted of the 553 models, according to Bloomberg News. That list includes models made by Audi, Beijing Benz, and Chevrolet………….  Tesla will be adding electric pickup trucks to its lineup, according to CEO Elon Musk. That will happen after the Model Y electric crossover is launched, he said. It will be the size of a Ford F-150. “I promise that we will make a pickup right after Model Y. Have had the core design/engineering elements in my mind for almost 5 years. Am dying to build it,” Musk tweeted last week Tuesday…………  North Korea will see its oil supply reduced through a United Nations-imposed sanction in response to the country’s nuclear weapon testing program. South Korean authorities last week seized a second ship that was suspected of supplying oil to North Korea in violation of the international sanctions, officials told BBC. The oil tanker, with its Panama flag, is being held at a port town near the western city of Pyeongtaek. South Korea had already impounded a Hong Kong-registered ship that was suspected of delivering 600 tons of refined oil to a North Korean vessel.

Green Auto Market resources for the new year:

  • Sponsorship program reaching stakeholders in clean transportation who read Green Auto Market.
  • Subscribing to Green Auto Market Extended Edition for weekly data analysis on green car sales, regulatory issues, global market trends, energy, and emerging mobility companies and technologies. See the article below on reaching consumers through practical methods, which comes from the recent edition of GAM EE on key trends from 2017 extending into the new year.
  • Market research firms and strategic planning consultants have interviewed GAM editor Jon LeSage on electric vehicle sales trends, consumer attitudes on the technology, the challenges that fuel cell vehicles face, and automaker partnerships with tier one suppliers.
  • Contact jon at jon@jonlesageconsulting.com for more information.

Consumers more interested in practical than theoretical when buying cars
Jumpstart Automotive Media released a report in December analyzing the impact that a revised strategy being tried out at auto shows is having on car shopping. Events such as the LA Auto Show have been less about the wonders of far-out advanced technology, and more about bringing to life the innovations found in today’s vehicles. Learning more about the new vehicles and their capabilities goes far beyond those visiting the showrooms, with millions of consumers gaining digital access to the car shows online. Cars are coming equipped with interactive systems like Apple’s Siri and Amazon’s Alexa that allow for verbal commands and touch screens simplifying the process — and getting car owners to see new possibilities coming through the technology. Connected car systems are expected to be the gateway to fully autonomous vehicles coming to roads over the next decade. Today, drivers can tap into mobility functions to manage charging their electric vehicle through voice commands, and to find out about available public charging spots.