CARB hearing coming up for LCFS revisions: Californians are facing a big challenge coming up right after the election. What will come of the California Air Resources Board public hearing on Nov. 8 on its plan to amend the Low Carbon Fuel Standard? It’s guided by a state program that gets progressively cleaner, at a time when concerns have been raised about it pushing gasoline prices even higher. Republican members of the legislature want to see the meeting delayed to avoid rising gas prices. About 100 members of the public have submitted comments protesting these amendments going through and the potential for gas and diesel prices going up even more. There’s debate floating around about seeking an accurate forecast on where fuel prices would be under stricter LCFS standards; and there’s been review of whether bringing in more biofuels will be the needed solution.

The LCFS’s credit trading system has produced about $2 billion since it was implemented in 2011, which has supported several clean transportation vehicle and infrastructure acquisitions for fleets operating in the state. Much of the agency’s actions so far have focused on highly technical disputes between oil companies, dairy farms, biofuel producers and other lower-carbon fuel companies. There’s also been challenges set by environmental justice advocates who say the program maintains polluting industries.

Global EV sales: Global sales of battery electric, and plug-in hybrid, electric vehicles increased by 30.5% in September, a year-over-year gain, according to Reuters. The U.S. has been seeing slow and steady growth; the surge come from China surpassing sales records since August and Europe going back to seeing growth, as reported Reuters by market research firm Rho Motion. The uncertainty of the U.S. elections seems to be affecting U.S. sales, data manager Charles Lester told Reuters.

California ports win big grants: Yesterday, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced seven California ports are receiving more than $1 billion in grants to build zero-emission infrastructure and implement plans to clean up air quality, according to the office of Governor Gavin Newsom. The Port of Los Angeles is getting $411.69 million, helping the port move forward on zero-emission (ZE) operations. That will come through significantly reducing air pollution in and around the port, deploying ZE cargo handling equipment (CHE), and enhancing electric vehicle charging infrastructure. It’s the largest largest clean ports grant from the EPA. The Port of Oakland will be receiving $322.17 million. Its project will support transitioning over to ZE alternatives for drayage trucks and cargo handling equipment.  

In related news, the U.S. Department of Energy yesterday announced the granting of $18.6 million for 15 projects that will drive innovation in equitable clean transportation and provide first responders with the tools they need to properly respond to calls involving zero emission vehicles. The largest grant was for $2.5 million to the National Association of State Energy Officials based in Arlington, VA. Its objective is to build a safe and resilient clean transportation sector that is supporting states and communities with training on zero emission vehicle technologies for emergency responders.

Fleet EVs — Myths vs. Facts: Take a look at ACT News for a detailed look at the misinformation that can be typical for fleets when considering bringing electric trucks into operation. The speed of battery charging is a deciding factor for making that acquisition of EVs and infrastructure, with faster always being better. How could you balance Level 2, more affordable charging units, with how your fleet typically runs? Correctly sizing that architecture will be an important element of making the right decisions for your fleet.

Tesla performance, plus Elon Musk on what AI looks like: Tesla stock performance jumped and stayed up last week with announcement of its third quarter performance. Revenue increased 8% in the quarter from $23.35 billion a year earlier. Net income rose to about $2.17 billion, or 62 cents a share, from $1.85 billion, or 53 cents a share, a year ago, the company reported.

While it’s still confusing for many of us why Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk would have invested $44B in Twitter/X, it is a good idea to follow what else he’s been investing in and working on — and what he thinks about the future of technology……
“I think by 2040, there will probably be more humanoid robots than there are people,” Musk said Tuesday during an appearance at the Future Investment Initiative, an event run by the institute of the same name as reported by Quartz.

As for how to get there through AI, Musk-led company xAI is now in talks raise a new funding round to get it valued at $40 billion. Discussions are still in the early states, the Wall Street Journal says. During the conference, Musk said that that he plans to double the size of xAI, but did not give additional details on how he would do so.

ID. Buzz recognized: Volkswagen of America just announced that its all-new ID. Buzz has been named to TIME’s 2024 list of the Best Inventions, which features 200 extraordinary innovations changing our lives. TIME editors solicited nominations to its online application process focused on growing fields such as healthcare, AI, and green energy.

RNG plant opening: Vanguard Renewables, a portfolio company of Global Infrastructure Partners, a part of BlackRock, a week ago held a ceremony for its newest renewable natural gas project at The Moyer Family’s Oakmulgee Dairy Farm in Amelia Court House, Va. The farm, owned by Larkin Moyer, a fourth-generation dairyman, along with his sons Brandon and Jeremy and is the oldest continuously operating family dairy in the Commonwealth, according to Vanguard Renewables. The BlackRock division is expanding across the U.S. and currently has seven operational facilities, three under construction, and plans to begin construction on multiple additional sites by the end of the year.

Polestar hurt by China ban: Polestar said on Monday that a proposed Biden administration rule to bar the use of Chinese vehicle hardware and software would “effectively prohibit” the automaker from selling vehicles in the U.S. including cars made in the U.S. The Swedish automaker, a brand of Volvo Cars that is majority-owned by China’s Geely, filed these comments with the Commerce Department that the proposed rule would bar the sale of vehicles that Polestar is building in South Carolina as well as those produced in China.

Hydrogen fuel cells market forecast: The hydrogen fuel cells market was valued at $5 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $34.65 billion by 2032, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.0% from 2024 to 2032. That report comes from SNS Insider, a global market research and consulting firm. Ever-increasing environmental concerns and clean energy adoption should trigger growth, the study says. The growth is driven by technological and infrastructure developments that make it possible to be used on a large scale in transportation, utility and portable power applications, the study says.

How come Tesla isn’t rolling out Cybercabs in San Francisco, Los Angeles, or Phoenix as an autonomous robotaxi service?

Is getting sued over alleged artificial intelligence-fueled copyright infringement of images from the film ‘Blade Runner 2049’ enough to stop Tesla from competing in the burgeoning robotaxi market? Probably not. That company had moved away from its long-promised entry into the robotaxi space a few months ago — which has become more obvious since the Cybercab launch event.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk, the Tesla corporation, and Warner Brothers Discovery were sued by Alcon Entertainment because the sued parties had asked for permission to use an image from the film for the Oct. 10 event launching the Cybercab at Warner Brothers Discovery’s studio lot in Burbank, California. That request was denied by Alcon. That went awry when, during the Cybercab event, an edited version of a scene from the film was shown on a presentation slide on a live stream for 11 seconds as Musk spoke.

Back in July prior to the first scheduled Cybercab media event (that got moved to Oct. 10), CEO Elon Musk kept talking about his company launching its long-awaited robotaxi service next year. That didn’t come up at the long-awaited media event on Oct. 10 at the Warner Bros. Studios in Burbank, Calif.

The audience heard all about CyberCabs having a pricetag less than $30,000 and that it will come out before 2027; and about a ‘Robovan’ that can carry up to 20 people and that will follow the CyberCab. The company also said autonomous driving will be added to its Model 3 and Model Y cars in California and Texas by next year. Attendees at the ‘We, Robot’ event also got to hear about the Optimus robot that’s still in development, and that could be available for $20,000–$30,000 and is capable of performing various tasks.

As for robotaxis in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Phoenix, it looks like Alphabet’s Waymo company is taking the lead there. All-electric Jaguar I-PACEs is the fleet vehicle for Waymo One in these cities.

General Motor’s Cruise division has temporarily paused autonomous vehicle service in all markets while the company evaluates how to best serve its riders and the communities where they operate. In October 2023, the California Department of Motor Vehicles on Tuesday shut down its operations, describing it as an “unreasonable risk to the public” and that the company misrepresented how safe they are — after a series bad incidents in the city.

Amazon-owned Zoox held an open house in Foster City, Calif., last month to showcase its boxy-shaped autonomous vehicle. Seats face inward, as if you were riding in a carriage with doors that open on both sides. It could be more like a trolley ride than just getting space for one-or-two riders.

The startup says it will be launching autonomous rides in San Francisco in the near future; and the company has put in more than 700,000 autonomous testing miles in California and Nevada. The vehicle can go as fast as 45 mph, and it has no steering wheel and can drive in either direction. Zoox hasn’t said when it expects to rise to commercial levels with its robotaxi fleet.

There’s expectation that Uber and Lyft will play a vital role in robotaxis being rolled out to riders. Waymo recently announced that it was expanding its partnership with Uber to offer robot taxi rides in Austin, Texas, and Atlanta by 2025.

One major hurdle has been safety. The Uber test driver behind the wheel of one of the company’s self-driving cars when it hit and killed a pedestrian in 2018, got sentenced pleaded guilty to endangerment and was sentenced to three years of supervised probation last year. In April, a self-driving Tesla carrying a passenger for Uber rammed into an SUV in Las Vegas. No one was hurt seriously from the collision in a suburban neighborhood, but it raised concerns again about whether robotaxis and other autonomous vehicles are ready yet to go beyond test runs and limited rides in a small number of markets.

How EVs are doing in Europe: European Alternative Fuels Observatory (EAFO) just released it Europe market report on the EU-27 alternative fuel vehicle market. In August, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) reached a 14.48% market share in the passenger car segment, the highest in 2024 so far. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) also maintained a notable market presence with a 7.18% market share. The European market is now seeing nearly 800,000 chargers. As of September EAFO reports that it breaks out into 673,455 AC regular chargers and 118,844 DC fast chargers. That means AC is regular charging and DC is fast charging.

On Oct. 4, EU member states voted in favor of giving the European Commission the green light to put in place definitive tariffs on BEV imports from China. That can go up 35.3% placed on top of the already existing 10% tariff that had already been placed on Chinese imports to the EU. That will come into effect on Nov. 1 for a period of five years.

Funding ZEV drayage trucks: Since November 2023, the Port of Los Angeles (POLA) and the Port of Long Beach (POLB) have partnered with the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to rapidly increase deployments of zero-emission drayage trucks. California’s Hybrid and Zero-Emission Truck and Bus Voucher Incentive Project (HVIP) has funded nearly 800 drayage trucks through this state program. An initial $60 million in HVIP-stacked incentives have been fully subscribed; HVIP funds are still available, and additional Port funds may be announced later this year.​​ For ongoing updates about available HVIP drayage funds and other types of HVIP incentives, visit californiahvip.org/funding.

Robotaxi launch: Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk will be revealing the Cybercab, its robotaxi, at Warner Bros. Hollywood Studio this evening. This has been years in the making, and many questions are expected to be asked. Musk hopes that the event will help keep Tesla’s stock at a higher level. The company will discuss the autonomous Tesla ride-hailing platform. Tesla is sticking with its plan to encourage owners to to make income by purchasing more then Cybercab and to place them on a ride-hailing network of robotaxis. Teslerati thinks the the EV maker will do more than just reveal the Cybercab tonight. It might include a $25,000 mass-market EV, a Robovan, and even the Roadster, according to the rumor mill. Tesla has said that the Cybercab and the $25,000 electric car will be built on the same platform, according to The Tesla Space.

GM’s LFP cells: General Motors on Tuesday said it plans to use cost-cutting lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery cells for future EV models. GM executives had said at an investor conference that LFP cells would combine with other changes to packaging and manufacturing to cut $6,000 from the cost of making EVs, compared to current models. The new Chevy Bolt EV is expected to arrive in 2025 as a 2026 model, although it’s unclear if the LFP-powered version will be available at launch.

Separately, GM President Mark Reuss said the next-gen 2026 Bolt EV will be priced ‘only slightly higher than the 2023 Bolt,’ which started at $27,495 with shipping, and it will be part of a ‘vehicle family.’

SEMA and NTEA oppose CARB rules: The Specialty Equipment Market Association (SEMA) and NTEA – The Work Truck Association filed suit in the US District Court’s Eastern District of California against the California Air Resources Board (CARB), seeking immediate declaratory and injunctive relief to stop electric vehicle mandates CARB intends to implement through its Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF) regulations. The two organizations say it far exceeds the state’s constitutional and state authority, and it will have a dire effect on an industry that has historically made major moves to bring newer, cleaner versions of trucks and other commercial vehicles to market.

Lessons learned at IAA: NACFE says that IAA 2024 in Hannover, Germany, was quite an interesting show. On the exhibit floor were a variety of alternative-fueled vehicles from a host of countries, including China, Italy, Germany, The Netherlands, and more. Several countries are working on decarbonizing their transportation industries. Though the technology and regulations may differ, NACFE found it valuable to learn more about what’s going on in that area.

DTNA working with J.B. Hunt: Daimler Truck North America is integrating a battery electric Freightliner eCascadia into its aftermarket operations with long-time associate J.B. Hunt Transport Inc. It will be part of J.B. Hunt’s fleet and deliver aftermarket parts from DTNA’s parts distribution center (PDC) in Phoenix to multiple dealers along a dedicated route, covering approximately 100 miles daily. DTNA says its first all-electric route in the DTNA aftermarket parts distribution network; and it fits well in its targets for reducing carbon emissions and setting a precedent for sustainable outbound logistics operations.

248 DC fast chargers: ChargePoint has received awards through its partners of more than $19 million to deploy 248 DC fast-charging ports at 45 sites along California highways. The awards were approved recently by the California Energy Commission (CEC) and California Department of Transportation as part of the state’s first tranche of National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) program funds.

Understanding battery cells: Here’s an Intertek resource on understanding battery cell design, manufacturing quality, and degradation. Check out the Top-12 FAQ sheet on Battery Cell Teardown (also known as Battery Cell Autopsy or Disassembly). It’s a way to help identify manufacturing defects, assess material composition, and uncover aging and degradation mechanisms, Intertek says.

Nuclear energy for data centers: While nuclear power as a clean energy source continues to lack support from certain stakeholders, it’s being taken very seriously by some major players. Amazon and Microsoft each inked major deals this year with nuclear power plants in the U.S. to power their energy-intensive data centers. It has something to do with new AI data centers that need a lot of energy to run.

Mobility market growth: The shared mobility service market, which was valued at $380.2 billion in 2023, its expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 15.6% during 2025-2030, according to a ResearchAndMarkets.com study. That’s expected to come from technological advancements, urbanization, and changing consumer preferences. Choices are expanding too for ride-sharing, car-sharing, bike-sharing, and scooter-sharing. Companies profiled in the study include Car2Go, Didi Chuxing, Grab, Lyft, Docomo Bike Share, Meitetsu Kyosho, Orix, Ola, BlaBlaCar, and Uber.

CA bill on renewable hydrogen: Governor Gavin Newsom signed SB 1420 (Anna Caballero, D-Merced), a California Renewable Transportation Alliance-supported measure to streamline permitting for renewable hydrogen production facilities. It facilitates centralized permitting and expedited review under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA).

Confessions of a Numbers Nerd: As mentioned in the last issue, I’ve started a Substack column tied into my new book, which has been published. It goes back to how I got into data analytics as an editor covering fleet management, car rental, and used vehicle market trends. More recently, it might be about looking at how it’s going between Tesla and BYD for global market leadership.

Chinese car shoppers are able to get through a core marketing challenge when considering buying an electric vehicle: price. Consumers can buy the BYD Qin midsize car for 130,000 yuan ($18,000). The cheapest EV in the U.S. is around $29,000. 

Chinese automakers, and its national government, have been able to sell the Qin and other EVs at low prices with some of them listed under the $10,000 price mark. This is happening for four reasons: intense domestic competition, subsidies, a low-paid labor force, and a comprehensive supply chain.

“[The BYD Qin’s] standard range on one charge is supposed to be 280 miles, but I can get only 255 to 260 miles, and only if I don’t turn on the air conditioning,” owner Zhang Fenglian said to Marketplace. “Of course, if you care about appearances, you wouldn’t use this car to pick up important clients or a big boss because the car looks cheap, but this car can fit five passengers comfortably. Plus, the trunk is big.”

On the competition side, there are over 100 EV brands operating in the market. Five EV brands including BYD and Tesla account for 60% of the market, according to the Shanghai-based strategy and investment firm, Automobility. Some of these automakers in the group of 100+ EV brands are struggling to be profitable in China, and are working hard to go to global markets.

Chinese EVs are essentially shut out of the U.S. and Canada markets due to punitive tariffs of 100%. The European Union is looking at adding extra tariffs but at a much
lower rate.

Low-paid workers face the challenges of Chinese workers in other sectors. They may have had to move across the country to take the job, leaving families and hometowns behind. They might have shown up for work with a suitcase and a bed in the company’s dorm. One of these BYD factory workers might be making about 7,000 yuan ($990) a month. If they’re living in a lower-cost city like Changsha, it can be a decent salary. But that might also require working a lot of overtime to reach that livable wage.

And in other news…………

My Substack column and book: I’ve enjoyed finishing a book that will come out soon, and tying it into a new column I’m writing and posting on Substack. This American online platform provides a publishing infrastructure to support subscription newsletters. One of the more appealing qualities for writers, journalists, and commentators is its expanding presence — and that a lot of public figures with notoriety are also publishing on Substack. You will certainly see a lot of content from other writers on the presidential election, AI, the wars, and climate change disasters. But it is up to the writer, and for me, it can be focus on some of my own personal story along with a broader theme tied to the challenges and opportunities of being alive. The book, Discovery: How my life finally made sense to me, looks at the seven near-death and close-call dramatic experiences I’ve lived through, and other life challenges. It explores what I’ve gained from all of it, and that it has been far from easy. You can see some of that in Substack, where a commentary such as ‘Late Diagnosis and Misdiagnosis: Don’t Let it Happen to You!’ delves into problems of going through the U.S. healthcare system, especially when you’ve been misdiagnosed at first.

E-fuel continues growing in use: Synthetic fuels, commonly referred to as e-fuel, comes from converting electricity generated from renewable sources into hydrogen via electrolysis. The hydrogen is then combined with carbon dioxide (CO2) captured from the atmosphere to create a liquid fuel. E-fuels have the potential to play a significant role in achieving sustainability targets, particularly in regions like the EU and the UK, where they are seen as a means to hit emissions targets and where e-fuel consumption is increasing, according to Gary Perman, PermanTech Search Group in LinkedIn. In the U.S., several companies are already developing e-fuel and integrating into commercial fleets. Infinium, the world’s first producer of commercially available ultra-low carbon e-fuels, and Brookfield Asset Management, recently announced a strategic funding partnership to accelerate the growth of Infinium’s eFuels platform. The company that its eFuels — which includes eSAF, a next generation sustainable aviation fuel — can reduce lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 90% or more compared to today’s conventional fuels.

Fleet EV adoption lagging: Corporate fleets in the European Union are going through a similar challenge as their professional peers in North America. A report from Dataforce, released by Transport & Environment (T&E), shows that companies in the EU are falling behind private households in adopting electric vehicles (EVs). Despite the corporate sector registering 60% of all new cars in Europe, the rate of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) adoption remains slower than among private buyers, according to the report.

On the positive side, Cox Automotive released a study in July stating that fleet owners in the U.S. like what their seeing in data analytics comparing EVs to internal combustion engine vehicles. Despite higher acquisition costs for bringing in EVs, the lesser requirements for service and maintenance than for ICEs, is making them more appealing to fleets in the U.S.

If you’ve been driving around Southern California lately, you may have noticed new electric vans in the FedEx fleet. They do look different than other vans on the streets. That’s because they’re new to the market, a General Motors electric van called the BrightDrop Zero.

As the first customer to receive BrightDrop Zevo 600, FedEx’s initial 150 vans have been deployed in Southern California. The electric vans have zero tailpipe emission, 600+ cubic feet of cargo room, and up to 250 miles on a fully charged battery. It comes with GM’s Ultium battery platform, that’s dedicated to bringing as much power, range, and performance as possible for a last-mile logistics urban vehicle.

Other features include connectivity through GM’s OnStar, advanced safety features to keep drivers safe, low step-in height, and large infotainment screens for a tech-enabled driving experience.

The 2024 BrightDrop Zevo 600 has a cargo volume of 614.7 cu. ft., a wheelbase of 183.5 inches, and an overall length of 290.0 inches. It’s starting price comes in at $64,425 after cash offers. The 2024 BrightDrop Zevo 400 starts at $62,725 after cash offers. Its specs are: 412.1 cu. ft. in cargo volume, a wheelbase of 153.1 inches, and overall length of 238.6 inches.

GM has an expanding network of BrightDrop dealers — seven of them for now.

FedEx is heading toward its goal of an all electric pickup and delivery fleet by 2040 — a very serious goal for a fleet currently at about 200,000 vehicles.

The delivery giant is is collaborating with Ford Pro to pilot ten Ford E-Transit vans. The vehicles are being tested in nine markets in the US to assess performance in different road and weather conditions.  The Ford E-Transit has a targeted range of 126 miles on a single charge, making it ideal for FedEx’s targets in local courier delivery.

Rivian’s electric vans have hit a bit of a snag, with a shortage of parts causing a temporarily suspended production of its commercial delivery vans used by Amazon. It’s part of a series of supply chains for the electric truck and van maker, coming from supplier shortages.

The company produces all its vehicles at its factory in Normal, Illinois, with a second assembly plant planned in Georgia. The Illinois factory isn’t lacking in parts that will keep other Rivian vehicles in production, including its R1S SUV and R1T pickup models.

Amazon said it’s aware of of Rivian’s ‘short-term production issues this month,” but does not expect it to have an impact on its plan to bring the electric vans into its fleet.

Fleet operators are concerned about battery shortages that are limiting EV supplies and keeping prices high. There’s also concerns being voiced that startup electric van makers may be running out of money and shutting down. Electric vehicle production has always been a difficult segment to enter on the passenger and commercial segments, and fleets are taking a careful look at their options.

And in other news……….

Hybrids coming back: Last month, Ford reported that it decided to increase its output of gas-electric hybrid models, which has been seeing increased demand from car shoppers. One variant, which Ford calls extended-range electric vehicles, or EREVs, have done well in China and will be part of the U.S. strategy. These vehicles use a small gasoline engine to keep an on-board battery charged while driving, which produces longer driving range. Ford is also thinking about adding extended-range EV technology for its next-generation three-row SUVs, as it looks at offering a range of powertrain options throughout its vehicle lineup.

Hyundai Motor America announced that it will take a similar turn. With demand for electric vehicles slowing in the market, hybrids are seeing a comeback. According to Motor Authority, Hyundai said that in the future, large and luxury models from its Genesis subsidiary will also offer hybrid powertrains. The Korean automaker thinks that some of its future hybrids will benefit from improved brake energy regeneration and vehicle-to-grid technologies. In particular, it said it will offer an extended-range plug-in hybrid that will be able to travel up to 500 miles without needing to recharge or refuel.

Will U.S. hike China tariffs?: It’s been months since the Biden administration announced raising tariffs on China, including 100% electric vehicle duties, a 50% tariff on semiconductors and solar cells, and 25% on critical lithium-ion battery minerals. This delay may have had something to do with White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan recently visiting Beijing and speaking with several senior Chinese officials. Automotive News also reported that the visit included time spent with Chinese President Xi Jinping; both sides emphasized the need to manage the U.S.-China relationship, according to the reporting.

Last week, honking from robotaxis nearly caused a few San Francisco residents to move to another city. That repeated disturbance might have taken place about 4:00 am, which made it particularly frustrating for those trying to sleep.

It came from a parking lot full of Waymo autonomous SUVs parked near each other for customers hailing rides from these robotaxis. Waymo stated that the honking was the result of a safety feature triggered when a Waymo car detects another vehicle reversing toward it. The software was meant to prevent slow-moving crashes.

Several people who live in buildings near the parking lot have had similar complaints, according to an ABC News Chicago affiliate station.

Waymo and Cruise were approved to operate their paid robotaxi services 24/7 in San Francisco in August 2023. That decision was made by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) in a 3-to-1 vote. Complaints and minor crashes have come up, with these permits being restricted for periods of time.

So when can we expect to see a lot of autonomous vehicles across the streets of America and other countries that are testing them out? That’s going to take at least until 2035, according to a prediction from research firm GlobalData.

“We expect the timelines for deploying fully autonomous vehicles (Level 5) to be pushed back over the next few years,” the research firm wrote in a report.

Level 5 autonomy relates to self-driving cars that do not require any human interaction – meaning that when they’re eventually deployed, they won’t have steering wheels or pedals; and what might be called fully self-driving vehicles.

Here Technologies, a Dutch company specialized in mapping technologies, location data, and related automotive services, found 2035 to be mentioned in more than one of these predictions as a realistic year to see it come together.

The Waymo One fleet consists entirely of fully electric Jaguar I-PACEs — what the company calls, “the world’s first premium electric autonomously driven vehicle.” The company is testing out Zeekr electric vans, made by a Chinese company. Cruise is using the Chevrolet Bolt, from its parent company General Motors, for its San Francisco robotaxi rides.

Waymo will this year test out colder locations, including Truckee, Calif.; Upstate New York; and Michigan, from the Upper Peninsula to the metro Detroit area. Winter road trips have been important to the company in recent years, with last year’s tests were done in Buffalo, N.Y.

Regardless of weather conditions, Waymo is testing rides outside of San Francisco and these cold locations. The company has been in limited parts of Phoenix since 2020, and is now testing its autonomous vehicles in Austin. Waymo has opened up a waitlist for access in Los Angeles.

Robotaxis are gaining ridership and support in San Francisco. For some riders, it’s better than taking an Uber or Lyft ride.

“I think the ride is great and I don’t feel unsafe or anything,” said said Nathan Herrara, a Boston resident who recently visited San Francisco.  Herrera added that he absolutely trusts robot drivers more than humans. “They’re more cautious.”

China is taking the lead on autonomous vehicle testing, with at least 16 of its cities allowing companies to test self-driving vehicles on public roads. At least 19 Chinese automakers are their suppliers are getting in on the testing, according to Carnegie Mellon University, a hub for autonomous vehicle technology development.

Chinese autonomous vehicle company WeRide has been granted permission to test in California. The California Public Utilities Commission issued two permits to WeRide. I pilot permit including a driver and one not including a driver. Both allow the company to test its vehicles on public roads while carrying passengers.

The U.S. Commerce Department is considering a ban on Chinese connected vehicles, which includes self-driving vehicles, due to national security concerns. But WeRide believes in the market potential enough to look into a nearly $5 billion valuation when going public on the U.S. stock market. The capitalization costs are quite high for bringing in all the elements that go into building and operating a safe, dependable autonomous vehicle.

WeRide is testing out autonomous SUVs, vans, street sweepers, and a ‘robobus,’ which looks like a small shuttle bus.

And in other news………..

EV charging report: The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has released a study focusing on the U.S. challenge of building a widespread and reliable electric vehicle charging infrastructure. NREL’s 2030 National Charging Network: Estimating U.S. Light-Duty Demand for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure report points to the need for a mix of publicly accessible charging stations along highways and near homes and workplaces, and private charging ports at single-family homes, apartments, and offices. “This is the fundamental challenge for the industry right now,” said Eric Wood, a senior EV charging infrastructure researcher at NREL. “Some people like to talk about alternative-fuel vehicles and their infrastructure as a chicken-and-egg problem. But I really think it’s more appropriate to think about infrastructure—specifically, charging stations—needing to lead the market. You need to have these stations be visible and available for people to feel confident in buying an electric vehicle and committing to make it their daily transportation mode of choice.”

CARB could boost LCFS: The California Air Resources Board is working on changes to the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) that could boost credit prices and support renewable natural gas (RNG) investment, with implications for landfill and anaerobic digestion projects, according to Waste Dive. It would be an increase from a proposal released earlier this year, and it comes from listening to alternative fuel producers about the impact of LCFS credit prices having fallen too low. It will go before a CARB board vote in November. If it clears, it will mean that fuel producers will see increase in low-carbon alternatives to offset their petroleum-based fuels.

What are the implications of the U.S. Supreme Court ruling that cancels the ‘Chevron deference’ standard? The Loper Bright Enterprises ruling this summer does have the potential to alter how environmental, energy, transportation, and other policies, will be implemented.

Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo, a June 28, 2024 ruling, is similar to Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization overturning Roe v. Wade in June 2022, the historic abortion ruling. Loper Bright transfers policymaking authority from federal agencies over to federal courts, overturning the 1984 Chevron ruling. The Supreme Court held that federal courts may not defer to an agency’s interpretation of an ambiguous statute.

Along with a companion case, Relentless, Inc. v. Department of Commerce, Loper Bright Enterprises overruled Chevron U.S.A., Inc. v. Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc. (1984). That was where the ‘Chevron deference’ standard came from; it had directed courts to defer to an agency’s reasonable interpretation of a law or policy decision that the agency enforces.

Loper Bright Enterprises is a New Jersey-based family-owned herring fishing company operating in the waters of New England. The June 2024 ruling originated from fishing companies challenging a rule established by the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) for these companies to pay for the cost of federal monitors that may be assigned to their boats, under authorization of the Magnuson–Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act. The company claimed that the Act did not allow NMFS to pass the monitors’ costs to the fishing companies, challenging the Chevron deference that was held in the NMFS’ favor during lower court hearings.

The Chevron deference became a two-part test that was deferential to government agencies: first, whether Congress has spoken directly to the precise issue at question, and second, it was based on whether the agency’s answer is based on a permissible construction of the statute.

Law firm Holland & Knight identified implications for environmental, energy, and transportation issues in how the Loper Bright Enterprises ruling could be interpreted by federal courts.

Environmental. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) may have trouble enforcing the new greenhouse gas power plant rule, which is likely to be challenged on the ground that it is unsupported by statutory authority. The Supreme Court’s ruling that greenhouse gases are air pollutants covered by the Clean Air Act would still stand, but the EPA’s attempts to consider climate impacts in rule makings covering a wide range of statutory authority may be getting a lot more scrutiny. Some environmental regulations are already facing court challenges, which should continue. The Renewable Fuel Standard has the strength of being created by statute nearly 20 years ago; however, the Supreme Court’s Loper Bright ruling could alter how the program evolves over time – such as restricting the EPA’s discretion to approve or deny participation by new types of fuels or entities.

Energy. The interpretation and implementation of various federal regulations and policies impacting oil, gas, and mineral development on federal lands and waters will likely be challenged under the new standard of judicial review of agency action. The procedures adopted by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) for environmental reviews and cost allocation for regional transmission grid expansions are likely to be taken on. The Federal Power Act, Natural Gas Act, Energy Policy Act of 2005, and the landmark National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) that was signed into law in 1969, will likely be challenged as well.

Transportation. Aviation and maritime transportation are expected to see implications before other transportation sectors. Policies governing prevention of collisions at sea would undergo scrutiny. One area that could impact ground transportation could come from what happens to the Oil Pollution Act and Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA); that could have a significant impact for recovery resulting from an oil spill. The National Transportation Safety Board’s (NTSB) investigative policies following accidents may be challenged, too, and it would affect aviation, maritime, and ground transportation.

The waste and recycling industry is also analyzing how this summer Supreme Court ruling may affect their legal and regulatory environment, especially what comes through the EPA and U.S. Department of Labor. Some analysts say it may not make an immediate impact on the waste industry. Long term, it may bring in more legal complexity when considering aspects of rules such as the EPA’s recent hazardous substance designation for certain polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) or Occupational Safety and Health Administration’s (OSHA’s) proposed heat standard, according to Wastedive.

And in other news………

Public likes EV charging: Customer satisfaction with public EV charging continues to improve, according to a new J.D. Power study. Tesla remained at the top of the J.D. Power study. Satisfaction with DC fast charging increased to 664 points on a 1,000-point scale, a 10-point increase from the same period in 2023. One area of dissatisfaction was Level 2 charging, where satisfaction dropped four points.

IRA opportunities: Companies announced at least 334 major new clean energy projects in the first two years since the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was signed into law, driving the biggest U.S. economic revolution in recent history, according to the national nonpartisan business organization E2. The 118 announcements in the IRA’s second year are expected to generate more than $40 billion in new investments and create a minimum of 34,600 jobs.

It wasn’t that long ago that we all heard about Ford Motor Co. surging forward in electric vehicle sales in the U.S. While that trend has continued, Hyundai Motor America and its three car brands stand out this year. Ford saw real gains with EV sales at 44,180, up from 25,709 last year in the first half. Hyundai, Kia, and Genesis all saw real gains over the first half of 2023. With its luxury brand Genesis and its Kia brand included, Hyundai Motor America sold 59,980 electric vehicles in the U.S. in the first half of this year.

At 304,451 units sold in the U.S. in the first half of this year, Tesla’s share of the market has been declining. It reached 75% in 2022, and is now at 49.7% according to Kelley Blue Book.

Hyundai’s Ioniq 5 crossover SUV has been its top selling battery electric model. It’s built on the E-GMP – the Electric Global Modular Platform – which the South Korean automaker says opens up a new era for the company, pioneering the development of EVs. It’s capable of quick-charging at peak rates of 235 kW, and only needs 18 minutes to go from 10 to 80 percent charged. The range is anywhere between 220 and 303 miles, based on the model and the battery.

Sales have been very good for the Ioniq 5, even though it doesn’t qualify for the federal $7,500 tax incentive. The company expects that it will qualify for this tax credit starting in October. That’s when it will be the first EV built at its Georgia assembly plant. Recent changes to the federal tax incentive have blocked foreign-made EVs from gaining the tax credit.

The EV market continues to be strong in the U.S., and along with several other countries overseas. For the first half of the year, 599,372 EVs were sold in the U.S.; that’s up from 558,377 in the first half of last year — a 7.3% increase, according to Kelley Blue Book.

Hyundai, which first came to the U.S. market in 1986, has been enjoying winning impressive sales gains — along with industry awards — in recent years. The 2023 IONIQ 6 was named World Car of the Year, World Car Design of the Year, and World Electric Vehicle. The 2025 Ioniq 5 N was named 2024 World Performance Car. The “N” designation is new to the Hyundai lineup with attention being placed on high-performance standards.

The 2024 Ioniq 5 has been recognized as a 2023 TOP SAFETY PICK+ by the IIHS, its highest safety award. The 2024 Ioniq 5 has a starting MSRP of $41,800.

The crossover EV6 has been Kia’s top selling EV. Kia dealers are offering a 36-month lease for $259 in monthly payments.

Hyundai has been present at ACT Expo and other automotive and fleet industry events. That includes its Nexo Fuel Cell, a dedicated hydrogen-powered SUV with an estimated range of 380 miles and zero emissions. In February, the automaker forged a deal with Italian vehicle manufacturer Iveco. Hyundai Motor Co. will supply an all-electric light commercial vehicle from its global eLCV platform to Iveco Group in Europe.

And in other news…….

Discount offer on conference: AltWheels Fleet Day offers a discount of $90 with a $7.88 fee through August 1 for its annual one-day conference. This year it will take place on Monday, Oct. 7, 2024. It brings together corporate and municipal fleet managers and clean-fleet stakeholders working to reduce emissions, increase reliability, and lower costs for tomorrow’s transportation needs. Watch more about the conference on this video.

Award winning RIDE electric school bus: For the second year in a row, bus maker RIDE won Student Transportation News’ prestigious Best Green Technology Award. This year, the accolade was awarded to the Creator, the company’s innovative Type C school bus. The Creator electric bus offers a driving range of up to 208 miles, a battery capacity of up to 282 kWh, and seats up to 78 passengers. It comes with a 12-year battery warranty. BYD | RIDE school buses including The Achiever are available throughout the U.S., and are eligible to participate in the EPA Clean School Bus program and several state incentive programs including the California HVIP voucher program.

Truck sales in 2024: Times are good for fleet and commercial vehicles sales. The National Truck Equipment Association (NTEA) predicts a 2% growth in truck and equipment sales for the remainder of the year. That’s coming from moderate growth in the U.S. economy. That growth should be fueled by increased activity in residential construction, transportation and warehousing, and state/local government spending, according to Gary Perman, president, PermanTech.

October, not August: The grand unveiling of Tesla’s robotaxi won’t be taking place on August 8. It will be taking place in October, though that date has yet to be released. The company’s engineering design team has to rework some elements of the self-driving electric car, according to sources familiar with the matter. The August 8 launch was announced in early April after news came out that the carmaker had canceled its long-awaited inexpensive car. This development ties into two elements that Tesla analysts deal with: overpromising of launches, and how much the company is counting on robotaxis in its long-term strategic model. There’s also the problem of getting regulators to allow for autonomous vehicles to be released beyond limited robotaxi rides in a couple of U.S. cities.

J.D. Power on Cheapest Electric Vehicle States: States with the biggest savings from EVs: New Jersey where $10,345 can be saved; and Nevada with $9,216 in savings. States with losses from EVs: West Virginia: $-1,800, and Maine: $-1,619. That comes from J.D. Power in a detailed analysis conducted in the first quarter for Automotive News. Maine and West Virginia were the only two states where cost savings can’t be gained. The study looked at total cost of ownership for en EV over five years.

Hydrogen getting cleaner: Clean hydrogen, which is generated from both renewables and fossil fuels through the use of carbon capture and storage technology, is taking off in America, with the U.S. being the largest producer in the world, accounting for almost 37% of global supply by 2030. That comes from a study by Gary Perman, president of PermanTech. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is one of the reasons this growth rate is expected, through tax credits for hydrogen production. The study says that these incentives are making hydrogen an increasingly attractive energy source and feedstock.

There is still hope, former Microsoft chief said: Bill Gates was thrilled to be in London recently for the Breakthrough Energy Summit, which brought together global leaders, industry executives, innovators, and investors to develop solutions for fighting climate change. Key stakeholders will have to get creative, cooperative, and committed to success during these days of progressively worsening climate conditions. Fortunately, technology breakthroughs are showing up, and that’s a necessity these days. “But it was clear that meeting these goals would require unprecedented investment from the private sector to drive innovation. It would also require extraordinary collaboration across all sectors to get clean energy ideas out of the lab and into the market affordably and at scale,” Gate write in his LinkedIn column.

Facts about EV charging in US and Europe: According to a new analysis report by Chargepoint, there are more than 170,000 publicly available charging ports across the United States and Canada based Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC) statistics. At ChargePoint, the saw year-over-year port growth in North America increase by 31% in 2023. According to European Alternative Fuels Observatory (EAFO), there were over 380,000 public charging ports available to drivers across the European Union and more than 30,000 in the U.K. at the end of 2023. There was a 47% overall increase in public charging ports in the EU year-over-year.

Peak demand for oil is here: Demand for global oil supply looks like it will be hitting its peak sooner than some experts had predicted. Oil use won’t be disappearing anytime soon, but measuring “peak demand” shows where the amount of oil being consumers will start falling rather than rising permanently. The climate crisis is driving things along, with global demand increasing another 2% to 3% over three to four years; and then the tipping point comes after that peak with oil consumption continuing to decline. It will need to be replaced by something, hopefully an alternative fuel.

There’s quite a lot to follow lately with used electric vehicle prices dropping, and changeovers taking place at Rivian and Fisker.

For over a dozen years now, automakers have been producing electric vehicles on assembly lines in the U.S. — starting with the Nissan Leaf, Chevrolet Volt, and Tesla Model S. Other EVs had been rolling out in smaller numbers prior to that time, too, including the Mitsubishi i-MiEV and Tesla Roadster. But it would take a few years to see new battery electric and plug-in hybrid models launched from established OEMs and post-startups. EV sales would at first see impressive gains for the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y, and later from competitors.

Some of these models, such as the Chevy Volt and i-MiEV plus several commercial electric trucks and vans, have been pulled from the market. Automaker have had a difficult goal to meet: making EV models profitable and realistically tied to market demand and innovations.

Plug-in electric vehicles only make up about 1% of the total light-duty vehicles on U.S. roads, but the number is large enough to track its impact on used vehicle market values; and other parts of vehicle lifecycle analysis. The number went up to about 3.3 million units at the end of 2023 — up from 2 million in 2022 and 1.3 million in 2021, according to Experian Automotive Market Trends report.

Used electric vehicle values had stayed strong over these years, with limited volume on the market and enough car shoppers fascinated with the new technology to pay more for a used EV than a used gasoline-powered car. Things started changing earlier this year. Hertz announced it would sell 20,000 EVs, mostly the Tesla S. They would be replaced by gasoline-powered cars. The car rental giant also put a hold on an order for 65,000 battery-powered cars made by Polestar.

In February, used EV prices fell below average gasoline-powered cars for the first time ever. That market trend has continued, with car search engine and sales channel iSeeCars analyzing 2.2 million 1- to 5-year-old used cars in May 2023 compared to May 2024. The company recently found that the average used EV price came in at $28,767, or 8.3 percent below the average gas car at $31,424. Compare that to one year earlier when the average used EV cost $40,783 and the average used gasoline-powered car cost $33,469, according to iSeeCars data.

What are some of the factors impacting used EV prices? “It’s clear used car shoppers will no longer pay a premium for electric vehicles and, in fact, consider electric powertrains a detractor, making them less desirable – and less valuable – than traditional models,” said Karl Brauer, executive analyst at iSeeCars.

Comparing Tesla Model 3 prices the BMW 3 Series sheds some light on this issues, according toe iSeeCars. A used Tesla Model 3 was priced $2,635 above a BMW 3 Series in June 2023. By May 2024 the Model 3 was priced $4,806 below the 3 Series.
The Tesla Model Y had a $4,570 price premium over the X3 in January 2024, but that difference fell to only $175 by May 2024.

Some of the other factors impacting used EV valuation includes consumer concern over EV battery life; the growing volume of used EVs coming to market; and consumer showing less willingness to pay a premium for EVs. It’s also taking place during a time when the overall U.S. used vehicle market has been seeing a downturn since late 2023.

What’s happening with EV makers?
As we’ve been observing over the past dozen-plus years, the auto market is a very tough one to break into — with EVs and their expensive battery packs being part of the challenge in being viable and profitable. Incentives like federal tax credits and state rebates have helped drive demand for these vehicles, but they’ve reached a mass-production level that’s typical of all segments of new and used vehicles on American roads.

Here’s some new developments that have come up for three significant players in the EV market…….

Rivian: Volkswagen is putting about $5 billion into Rivian in exchange for stock and the right to use Rivian’s EV and software technology through a joint venture. The startup company had paused plans in March to open up a new manufacturing plant in Georgia. Rivian had taken losses of about $39,000 per vehicle built last quarter.

Fisker: Fisker filed for bankruptcy protection last week, as the EV maker began selling assets and restructuring its debt. That was after burning through cash in an attempt to ramp up production of its Fisker Ocean SUV model. Other EV makers have gone through BK protection in the the past two years as well, including Proterra, Lordstown and Electric Last Mile Solutions. Demand had been lower than expected, and finding investment backers became difficult along with having its supply chain needs met during a disruptive period. Henrik Fisker and team were unable to secure an investment from a major automaker, which lead to filing for BK.

BYD: Berkshire Hathaway is reducing its share in Chinese EV giant BYD — from a little bit over 7% to a little under 6%. Owning shares of the company started for BH in 2008 with $230 million for about 225 million shares, which came out to around a 10% stake. Last year, the automaker beat Tesla for the first time ever in global EV sales. Tesla took the title back in the Q1 of this year.

And in other news………

Ford in Long Beach: Ford Motor Co. is setting up a research-and-development team to work on the company’s next generation of electric vehicles. It will soon be headquartered in Douglas Park, adjacent to Long Beach Airport, Mayor Rex Richardson and Ford announced yesterday. “Long Beach is a key part of our broader strategy to attract top talent to develop future vehicles and experiences for our customers,” Doug Field, Ford’s chief EV, digital and design officer, said in a statement.

The automaker said that campus will open up in early 2025. It will include two buildings and eventually accommodate up to 450 employees working on designing “a low-cost, flexible electric vehicle platform.” Led by former Tesla executive Alan Clarke, this R&D center had already gained attention from scooping up engineering talent from other electric car manufacturers like Rivian. Ford’s history in the area goes way to 1930, when the Ford Long Beach Assembly Plant began building Model A’s on a plot of land just north of Terminal Island.

BYD school bus: The Creator, the BYD RIDE’s newest zero-emission Type C school bus, will be rolling out at the STN Reno event July 12-17. The Creator is backed by a 12-year battery warranty and offers a seating capacity of up to 78 students. The Type C has a range of up to 208 miles and has the option to include up to two wheelchair positions.