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Transitional Technologies: Connectivity as the stepping stone to cars of the future

Connected cars, aka connectivity, is thought to have been the very first of the next-generation technologies serving as game changers for the auto industry, personal mobility, and ground transportation. The ideal will be to someday have automated, electric vehicles tied together through a Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) communication network — and connected to everything else through the next version, Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X). The hope is that traffic could be controlled, collisions avoided, and energy use made more efficient.

And it will be connected to everything else, such as your home. It’s becoming quite common to see intelligent mobile devices able to manage what’s going on in your house — security system, heating, lighting, recording a sporting event, etc. Why not tie you car into all of it for electric vehicle charging, checking diagnostics, energy consumption, and getting it ready to take you to work in the morning?

Connectivity goes back to General Motors and Motorola introducing OnStar in 1996, eventually offering subscribers security, emergency services, hands-free calling, navigation, and remote diagnostics. Once smart phones started showing up in the late 2000s, connectivity began tying phones to a car’s dashboard control panel for these types of convenience features; plus what became known as “infotainment” that could include hearing your favorite music artist or the Howard Stern show on SiriusXM Radio. It eventually shifted over to voice commands to keep eyes on the road and the process more automated and easy to use.

These days, three tech developments tend to come up when connected cars are being discussed — 5G, V2V/V2X, and IoT.

For 5G, debate continues over which region will win the race to bring the leading-edge technology and clear the hurdles for adoption — North America, Europe, or Asia? Having a mobile device with 5G means higher capacity and increased bandwidth compared to 4G. It has the potential to clean up the problems on 4G as everything you can think of switches over to intensive, sophisticated software and data transfer needing a lot more bandwidth.

But the revolution will take much longer than planned. Last year, AT&T and Verizon went live with their 5G networks in a small, targeted set of cities. T-Mobile promised to clear its acquisition of Sprint and integrate their networks into the largest 5G network out there. The legal hurdle was cleared on April 1, but its presence in 5G is at the beginning phase. Handset makers have been rolling out a number of new models compatible to the new standard. However mobile device users aren’t seeing any real improvements yet in the existing cellular networks out there from AT&T, Verizon, and Sprint/T-Mobile.

But the technology does have its champions in telecommunications and mobility. The GSA (Global mobile Suppliers Association) said that by the end of 2019, 61 operators in 34 countries had launched one or more 3GPP-compliant 5G services. Of those, 49 operators had launched 5G mobile services, while 34 had launched FWA (Fixed Wireless Access) or home broadband services. The group sees the 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) as fundamental for producing standardized reports and specifications for 3GPP technologies. Seven telecommunications organizations came together to create the 3GPP standards to support the development of 5G.

It does have its enemies — particularly those spreading concern that 5G will be dangerous to human health. Some experts see it as another conspiracy theory, and say that there’s no evidence that there’s anything to worry about.

V2V/V2X: V2X is that latest standard to emerge from what was originally named V2V when the University of Michigan’s Mcity Test Facility gave it that badge. V2X is a vehicle communication system that integrates other more specialized types of communication such as V2I, V2N, V2V, V2P, V2D and V2G. Cellular vehicle-to-everything (C-V2X) is another development getting a lot of attention lately, and is expected to serve as the foundation for vehicles to communicate with each other and everything around them.

Automakers, tech companies, mobile phone networks, and auto suppliers, are waiting for 3GPP Release 16, which is expected to be finalized sometime this year. It covers all the bases on 5G coming out. One section includes specifications for C-V2X, that wold address issues such as platooning, extended sensors, automated, and remote driving.

The US Department of Transportation has been heavily involved with what technology will take the lead in 5G, and where V2X communications will go next. For V2X, DOT released a standard for review in February supporting the agency’s 5.9 GHz “Safety Band” spectrum testing. The devices will be used to evaluate the safety performance and capabilities of the devices through both small- and large-scale testing, including scalability and congestion, interoperability, and complex transportation scenarios.

Internet of Things — In 2010 when it first emerged in tech media, IoT at first seemed like the latest techie expression for the interconnectedness of devices, laptops, networks, mainframes, cell towers, and satellites; but it quickly became much larger than that.

What does it mean lately? IoT platforms are geared to analyze performance and share predictive and preventive maintenance, and other operational maneuvers to keep the participating organizations productive and efficient. It’s thought to bring together three factors: the ubiquitous internet, low-cost connected devices, and growth in data analytics solutions.

Smart appliances are tapping into the IoT mindset to allow end users to do everything in just a few commands. That might include planning out meals and getting reports on the nutrients and health implications of their planned meal. The IoT platform also enables more efficient use of energy as equipment makes intelligent adjustments to energy consumption. It helps reduce operational costs through enhanced predictive and preventive maintenance.

There’s also the revenue generating side that can help resolve one of the toughest questions of the day — finding additional revenue steams and offset some of the costs coming from development of the new technology. There are creative methods being explored that sell services to support connected products, rather than the products themselves. Many companies are bringing in specialists to tap into the developing technology. That could be through a tech consultant with IoT expertise, or through hiring new staff with a title like Business Development Manager, Internet of Things.

So when looking at 5G networks, V2X communication systems, and new IoT solutions, you can get a closer look at the elements shaping the contributions connected cars will make to the vehicle technology revolution.

And in other news……..

Tesla beats Toyota on stock market: Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA), which last month took its 10 year anniversary on the stock market, now has the largest market value among automakers — surpassing Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) and taking the lead. This morning, Tesla share prices have hovered right under $1,300 per share and a market cap at $240.96 billion. Toyota has been trading around $127 per share with its market cap at $206.1 billion. Tesla is weathering the COVID-19 storm well and has a loyal following in market analysts and shareholders. Expanding into China and Europe, and continuing to launch new products such as the Model Y, though investors are keeping the pressure on CEO Elon Musk and team to improve quarterly earnings.

Net-zero for America: House Democrats last Tuesday released a bill that calls for the US to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, primarily through decarbonizing the electric and transportation sectors. It doesn’t remove natural gas fracking or coal-powered plants. Power plants would need to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2040; with an economy-wide reduction expected by 2050 through building, transportation and industrial electrification.

Republicans on the select committee were frustrated the policy package did not go through the full committee process, meaning it will inevitably look different once it does get a full House vote. The sweeping plan for climate action embraces many of the goals of the Green New Deal that was released in February 2019, but wasn’t able to move forward in the House.

Diesel pumps changing: Is it just me, or does it seem like more gas stations are adding diesel fuel pumps, and integrating them into all of the other fuel dispensers? According to Diesel Technology Forum, 55 percent of retail fuel stations in North America offer diesel fuel. It’s been gradually integrated into the main dispensers rather than setting up a solo dispenser for diesel. The organization says that diesel cars have the advantage of getting 20-to-40 percent more miles per gallon than gasoline-powered vehicles. They have less need to stop at the gas stations.

GAM editor on workplace struggles: Do Amazon, Tesla, and other tech firms treat employees nearly as well as their customers? Those of us who drive a Tesla electric car, or belong to Amazon Prime, or take Uber and Lyft rides all over town, have an idea that while its fun to be a customer, you probably wouldn’t want to work for them. Read more in my LinkedIn Pulse commentary.

Countries with Highest CO2 Emissions
From Fuel Combustion

Energy-related CO2 emissions grew by 2.1% in 2017
and by 1.9% in 2018. Almost all countries contributed
to the rise except Europe and Latin America.
Study comes from Enerdata’s Global Energy
Statistical Yearbook 2019.

Will carbon taxes ever be enacted in Washington?

Whether or not Congress and the president will enact a carbon tax occasionally becomes a topic of heated debate with strong arguments made on both sides. Lawrence Summers has stirred the pot lately writing commentaries making the case for enacting carbon taxes. Summers, a Harvard professor and past university president, and treasury secretary from 1999 to 2001 and previous economic adviser to President Obama, says that cheap fossil fuels exacerbate energy overuse. Carbon taxes would help curb that problem and reduce emissions. “Carbon emissions exacerbate the global climate change problem. In many cases they contribute to local pollution problems which immediately harm human health,” Summers wrote in the Washington Post.

The basic idea behind enacting carbon taxes is to raise the price of fossil fuels high enough in the US that it becomes much more expensive. It would be similar to Europe’s high motor fuel prices; that gives incentives to consumers to use less fuel and produce less carbon during transportation. Carbon taxes would also regulate other sectors with high carbon emissions such as energy power plants. Summers says that the issue becomes compelling when oil prices drop dramatically, as we’re seeing now, giving incentive to over-consuming motor fuel and other fossil fuels.

Variations on carbon taxes do exist in the US now through the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and California’s cap-and-trade system. Oil importers and refineries pay for and trade Renewable Identification Numbers through the RFS. California’s cap-and-trade market sets a firm limit (or cap) on greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from the oil industry, utilities, and other carbon producers. Compliance costs are minimized by trading carbon credits on the market, and through reducing their own carbon emissions by changing over to clean, renewable energy.

President Barack Obama has been calling on the world to follow the US and China alliance in reducing GHG – a point made last fall while speaking before the United Nations Climate Summit. The US has not supported the summit’s plan to set a global price on carbon, signed by 74 countries and more than 1,000 businesses and investors. That comes from a lack of support in Washington for carbon taxes now that the majority of both the House and Senate have changed hands – and which had failed to gain any real support in Washington in recent years when Democrats led both branches of Congress. As for now, California has a cap-and-trade system in agreement with the Canadian province of Quebec; other states are considering it. The Obama administration is going the route of enforcing Clean Air Act rules and forming an overseas alliance with China to deal with the carbon reduction challenge.

Steve Cohen, executive director at Columbia University’s Earth Institute, says that it’s time to “abandon the delusion of a carbon tax.” While it makes for interesting cocktail party chitchat and impassioned blogging, it’s not going to gain enough political support with so much at stake. “No political leader responsible for ensuring the material well-being of his or her people in the modern global economy is going to willingly raise the price of something so central to that economy as the price of energy,” according to Cohen. He sees the solution coming from setting up incentives and government-funded research to make renewable energy technologies more advanced and cost efficient. That would mean renewables would become cheaper, more reliable, and more convenient than fossil fuels. The debate would be over.

As for now, the best US trend we’re seeing is corporations and governments choosing to reduce their own carbon/GHG emissions voluntarily. That usually starts out in adopting energy efficiency, waste management, and renewable energy – such as powering a building through solar panels. We’re starting to see fleets become more engaged in those policies – reducing their emissions and fuel consumption through alternative fuel and advanced technology vehicles. Making the business case is a bit challenging with gas prices dropping down so far and acquisition costs for these clean vehicles many times much higher than traditional vehicles. Hats off to those fleets taking on the challenge.

ARI’s Brian Matuszewski on what fleet managers are doing on the sustainability front

Does your organization have a sustainability officer on staff? The last time I counted, there were 19 of these filled management positions at US-based vehicle manufacturers; nine at automotive supplier companies; 16 at transportation companies (including fleet management, cargo transport, and delivery companies); and 12 in the energy sector (and that includes NPOs and research centers). Not all of them have the word “sustainability” in their job titles. They’re typically responsible for carrying out environmental and energy efficiency initiatives for their organizations; it tends to cover the end result of the entity (such as manufacturing clean, fuel efficient vehicles) and internal processes such as energy efficiency, recycling, and waste management. Sustainability has to do with what gets handed over to future generations.

Brian Matuszewski is one of the few sustainability officers, so far, in fleet management. He serves as manager – strategic consulting, sustainable strategies at ARI, one of the top fleet management companies based in the US. Matuszewski spoke to me last week about his duties at the company – and what it’s like to be among the growing movement of management professionals focused on sustainability issues. ARI’s clientele includes fleets in the corporate, government, and NPO sectors. The Cornell University graduate previously served at the US Environmental Protection Agency, as an analyst at P&L in Mexico City, and joined ARI earlier this year.

He’s primarily focused on supporting clients’ efforts to operate sustainable fleets with alternative fuel vehicles, fuel efficiency, and research and consulting services. Fleet managers are interested in implementing organizational targets to reduce carbon and greenhouse gas emissions, supporting their country’s energy independence, and maximizing operational efficiencies and cost reductions. Matuszewski starts out by assessing fleet data and working with clients on integrating what makes the most sense for them.

Along with green vehicle acquisition decisions, Matuszewski said that ARI’s Environmental Management System helps clients monitor energy efficiency, manage waste going to landfills, implement recycling programs, and track baseline data globally. These days, fleet managers wear a lot of hats – their duties go way beyond fleet management; ARI assists fleets in reducing emissions and increasing efficiency in different facets of fleet management duties. Some fleet managers are working closely with sustainability managers within their organizations. “Fleet managers are getting some pressure from sustainability officers – buy more hybrids, etc.,” Matuszewski said. “The fleet manager’s job is a lot more comprehensive.”

European fleets are dealing with taxation on emissions, and in the US, several government and large corporate fleets are implementing sustainability initiatives – generally designed to meet carbon emissions targets. Smog emissions are not a priority for fleets these days due to advanced technologies that are commonplace in new vehicles; reducing CO2 emissions is a top priority for a growing number of fleets. Diesel powertrains are being tracked, too, and a lot of that is being dealt with effectively by regulatory compliance including diesel being sold now at fueling stations that “combust fuel in a clean way,” Matuszewski said.

As for alternative fuel vehicles, that varies fleet by fleet – plug-in electric vehicles, hybrids, natural gas vehicles, propane autogas, and biodiesel are being looked at. “Alternative fuels are not the only way to go green,” he said. “They’re optimizing fuel efficiency, and gasoline and diesel engine vehicles can be pretty clean.” At the end of the day, fleet managers have to meet their organization’s goals when making fleet vehicle acquisitions. “Whether you believe in global warming or not, you need to make a strong business case,” Matuszewski said.

You may notice that quite a few Millennials (along with Baby Boomers and Gen Xers) can get pretty fascinated and passionate about sustainability – and might end up choosing to travel down that career path, as did Matuszewski. “At the university setting, it’s become a hot topic and not a fad,” he said. The terminology now includes cleantech, clean transportation, and sustainability. Whether it be students majoring in engineering, architecture, public policy, or business management, a lot more of them are adding it to their degrees and are becoming active in campus in organizations such as Net Impact. “A lot of people coming from college see it happening and feel good about it,” he said. It makes a lot of sense to them – in creating economic growth and innovation. It was a hot topic at Cornell University while he attended, and he’s been seeing a lot of topical conferences taking place across the country.

Matuszewski also emphasized that automakers are not getting enough credit for embracing sustainability. For example, Ford’s Rouge plant now utilizes a zero emissions building, and soybeans are being used inside Ford vehicle interiors, he said. Fleets are going in that direction, too, and are making a solid contribution to sustainability through the volume of vehicles they’re purchasing, setting up onsite alternative fueling, and are part of building the infrastructure. ARI works with clients to extract and analyze data and “customize sustainable solutions,” he said.

Climate Change and transportation policies: Are skeptics right that it’s really a lost cause?

Stakeholders striving to bring green transportation to the mainstream tend to articulate one, two, or all three of the following reasons for supporting their missions:

1. Petroleum: Reducing and eventually eliminating America’s (and Planet Earth’s) addiction to oil and all its negative implications on geopolitics and energy security, economic stability, and environmental issues.
2. Economics: A seismic shift has been in the works for years, long before the Great Recession, with globalization and adoption of new technologies driving change. As America sees several industries and jobs diminish or disappear, looking for new opportunities is a very good thing. Alternative fuels and vehicles offer the possibility of return on investments, OEM and infrastructure sales, good paying jobs, and sales tax revenue.
3. Emissions: On the regulatory front, along with sustainability policies being adopted by several corporations, green transportation tends to be primarily pushed forward to reduce tailpipe and carbon emissions. Air pollution and its health-hazard implications are there on the tailpipe smog side of the analysis, and for many organizations, climate change is the central issue.

I’ve recently heard persuasive arguments made that climate change is certainly occurring, but there’s very little humans can do about it. While reducing fossil fuel consumption and emissions is the clear path to reducing CO2 levels, it will only address one end of the scale; there are environmental forces – including what’s happening deep within our oceans – that are outside human-caused climate change and there’s very little we can do about it.

Whether these arguments have weight or not, it’s very important to stay current on what’s happening out there, as it will affect government and corporate transportation policies. So here’s the latest on the climate change debate….

The US Department of Commerce’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) just released a report stating that the scorching hot heat that hit the north central and northeast US during the summer of 2012 was impacted by man-made climate change. The report’s analyses found evidence of human-caused climate change in half of the 12 extreme weather and climate events analyzed from last year. It started with unusual warmth in the spring season of 2012. “Approximately 35 percent of the extreme warmth experienced in the eastern U.S. between March and May 2012 can be attributed to human-induced climate change,” NOAA said about one study in the report. From another study in the report, NOAA stated, “High temperatures, such as those experienced in the [north central and northeast] U.S. in [summer] 2012 are now likely to occur four times as frequently due to human-induced climate change.”

The California Air Resources Board has a legal battle to deal with that’s attempting to undercut the Low Carbon Fuel Standard Program, which came out of AB 32 when it was enacted in 2006. Oil and ethanol companies want to void the rule and claim that the fuel standard discriminates against crude oil and biofuels producers outside California. There are two lawsuits in the works. CARB lost the federal court case and is waiting to find out if the Ninth US Circuit Court of Appeals will hear the case. Ethanol producer Poet LLC has another case filed with the state court claiming CARB violated the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) when it adopted the standard. Poet claims the rule unfairly penalizes ethanol producers by counting their indirect carbon emissions.

National Geographic’s September cover story, “Rising Seas,” shows the Statue of Liberty waist high in seawater. The lead feature article starts out with three statistics – 136 large coastal cities are now at risk from sea-level rise; 40 million people are at risk in those cities; and there’s $3 trillion value of assets at risk. A fold-out map shows what the planet would look like if all the ice caps melted – the southeast US is underwater; California doesn’t break off and sink to the bottom of the ocean, but somehow its central agricultural region becomes a giant lake. The global map forecasts 5,000 years into the future when the sea level rises 216 feet, perhaps much faster if we add five trillion more tons of carbon to the atmosphere. The average earth temperature will be shooting up from the current 58 degrees Fahrenheit to 80 degrees. Most of magazine’s special section focuses on tactics for surviving flooding and other consequences that come out of disasters like last year’s Hurricane Sandy. In June, Mayor Michael Bloomberg outlined a $19.5 billion plan to defend New York City against rising seas. Tim Folger, author of the article does mention the role of human decisions impacting melting ice caps…. “Unless we change course dramatically in the coming years, our carbon emissions will create a world utterly different in its very geography from the one in which our species evolved,” Folger wrote in the summary. “No matter how much we reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, Foster (Gavin Foster, a geochemist at the University of Southampton in England) says we’re already locked in to at least several feet of sea-level rise, and perhaps several dozens of feet, as the planet slowly adjusts to the amount of carbon that’s in the atmosphere already.”

In June of this year, President Barack Obama came back to the issue of climate change, which he’d basically avoided during his reelection campaign last year. In June of this year, the White House published the “Climate Action Plan” and the president gave a speech that month on climate and energy. The theme of the transportation portion of the report digs into increasing fuel economy standards and developing and deploying advanced transportation technologies as the way to address climate change. The report does start out with a quote from the president’s reelection inaugural speech in January where he mentioned the overwhelming majority of scientists convinced that climate change is for real ….. “We will respond to the threat of climate change, knowing that the failure to do so would betray our children and future generations. Some may still deny the overwhelming judgment of science, but none can avoid the devastating impact of raging fires and crippling drought and more powerful storms,” he said. Our moral obligation is to hand over sustainable energy sources to future generations, according to the president. Obama addressed the topic during the G20 summit, though the issue of what to do about Syria was much more important. Five Scandinavian nations (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden) agreed with the president on the goals outlined in the Climate Action Plan.

Transportation produced 31% of total carbon emissions and 26% of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in the US during 2011, according to the US Environmental Protection Agency. Electricity, industry, residential and commercial, and other non-fossil combustion make up the rest of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the EPA analysis. GHG and CO2 emissions go through ebbs and flows of interest and action by government entities, researchers, and businesses. The published B2B and consumer surveys make the issues look vulnerable to fluctuation on priority lists for elections, investments, purchase decisions, and lifestyle concerns. Climate change is not going away as a pressing issue – especially in the wake of natural disasters and weather catastrophes – but it’s probably best suited for success in league with petroleum and economic issues.