Telling your story on how you got here, Trump admin rolls back clean car standards

For those of us homebound during the Covid-19 outbreak, what’s the best way to avoid cabin fever and bleak news saturation?

A few good ones I’ve heard or experienced have been: catching up on a good TV show like Westworld, finally getting around to using an exercise machine, cooking healthy meals at home, playing board games with co-residents, chatting with friends and family on Zoom, and writing (or attempting to write) the Great American Novel.

And there’s always telling a good story. One of the best work experiences I’ve had in recent years has been asking stakeholders in advanced, clean transportation how they got here in the first place. How did they get so passionate about the subject matter?

That might have happened during a video interview for Automotive Digest; or a phone interview for an article; or during a luncheon at ACT Expo; or by exchanging emails after connecting on LinkedIn; or watching them give a presentation on the vehicle, fuel, or technology they’ve been championing for years; or talking with them during monthly calls of Green Auto Market’s editorial advisory board.

I’ve had a few more good questions to ask them, or that I got asked. These might include:

 

  • What do you really think it will take for clean vehicles to reach 10 percent (or 25 percent, 50 percent, etc.) of US new vehicle sales?
  • What are the most compelling points to make about switching over from gasoline and diesel to electric vehicles; or hybrids; or hydrogen; or natural gas; or propane autogas; or biogas; or renewable fuel?
  • What comes first — the chicken or the egg? The vehicle or the charging/fueling infrastructure? Or, are they equally important?
  • How did you pick this field of endeavor over something more established and safe?

Readers of Green Auto Market have told me quite a few fascinating stories. Their passion for the subject matter and staying informed might have started years ago when they took over fleet acquisitions for a city directed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; or they’ve been obsessed with electric vehicles ever since they made their first do-it-yourself low speed, short range EV from a kit — and years later bought a Nissan Leaf, Chevy Volt, or Tesla Model S; or they’ve worked for a government agency promoting adoption of alternative fuel vehicles; or they’ve worked in one or more startups breaking into the world of EVs and charging; or for a major automaker setting up a division in EVs, autonomous vehicles, or mobility services; or they just love to read and talk about the latest in cars, fuels, and vehicle tech.

For those of you interested in sharing your stories about getting hooked on clean transportation — and about what you’d like to see happen in the near future — in Green Auto Market, please email at jlesage378@gmail.com. It would be best to include your name and affiliation (employer, organization, area of interest, etc.); or you can remain confidential about your name and affiliation, if need be.

Speaking of which, here’s my story………

I started following the subject matter in the 1990s while serving as an editor at Automotive Fleet. I spent time talking to fleet managers who were testing out vehicle conversions to natural gas and propane autogas; they started receiving funding grants from Air Quality Management Districts in California (and other agencies around the country) to convert vehicles over to compressed natural gas fueling systems and to have a fueling dispenser placed at their base location.

During that time, I might also have been interviewing someone involved in testing out other alternative fuels such as ethanol and methanol. Support for methanol didn’t last very long after engine corrosion became a major concern. I’d also heard about limited test projects being done — electric vehicles (one of them later becoming General Motors’ EV1), a self-driving truck by the military, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles that picked up more support from automakers and government agencies by the early 2000s.

For the most part, interest in clean transportation faded away by the second half of the 1990s. Cheap gasoline and diesel prices; attractive fleet incentives for full-size cars, trucks, and vans; and domestic manufacturer truck and van models that could be customized and equipped for utility fleets, construction, and maintenance operations, took away much of the interest in alternative fuel vehicles by the late 1990s.

The turning point for me was in 2007. As I’ve shared with some of you, on Aug. 12 of that year, I was struck with encephalitis — an inflammation of the brain caused by a previous infection activated again. That one had been herpes simplex that started when I was a child with chicken pox. It was reactivated in 2007 primarily by stress; though it was largely unknown at the time, and it wasn’t diagnosed correctly at first. On that day, my heart stopped twice and I had to be revived — or I wouldn’t have lived through it.

I was hospitalized for about two months, with the encephalitis swell blocking my memory (front, left cortex of the brain) for most of that time period. I wasn’t able to return to my office for work until after the first of the year. During that time after getting out of the hospital and staying home, I found myself going on the internet to research and read about subject matter I’d been digging into earlier — such as while attending the Alternative Fuels & Vehicles Conference in Anaheim earlier that year. Topics that grabbed my interest included concern over global warming; cleantech startups being a hot commodity, with capital available for EV startups and solar and wind power companies; and reading about corporate sustainability policies.

My interest transitioned over to fascination during 2008 — from the gasoline and diesel price spike and volatility, and doing features for LCT Magazine on chauffeured transportation fleets starting to try out alternative fuels. During that year, I profiled the Econation startup company— which was bringing in Priuses, hybrid SUVs, and CNG-powered Lincoln Town Cars to its fleet for corporate trips in Los Angeles.

I was blessed with support for my interest and fascination in these cars, fuels, and technologies while working with Automotive Digest and its team (led by Publisher Chuck Parker). Green Automotive Digest started up in 2010, which gave me an excellent channel for meeting and interviewing several stakeholders in the field.

During all of this time period, I became most fascinated with two key themes — clean transportation offering pragmatic solutions; and the absolute necessity of transportation in our economy and lifestyles. I would end up talking about, and writing about, these topics quite a few times — at least as a backstory to a news item or feature I was digging into.

Here’s a question for you to consider. What if you could help clean the air, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, create jobs, and support technology innovation? Would you consider that intelligent, practical, and inspiring? That’s been a key piece of the formula when a new vehicle technology is introduced to the public. A piece of the press release might state something like: “This fuel will reduce carbon emissions by 1.2 million tons this year compared to diesel fuel.”

As for the role of transportation in our cultural and economic development, I think it’s been as important as power, communications, lighting, medical care, and distributing water. The essential value and role that ground transportation has played in human history for 200 years started with rail, and later with internal combustion engines and crank-up starters, the first electric vehicles, and bringing steam-engines over from trains to cars. With it came the eventual domination of petroleum and serious threats to air quality and sustainability of the world we live in.

I have to admit that I do love fast cars that can guzzle a lot of gasoline — with the 1968 Pontiac GTO being my favorite. That wasn’t the second car in the legendary car chase scene in the 1968 movie Bullitt — that was another of my favorites, the Dodge Charger, taking on the classic Ford Mustang. I believe we have the right to own and retain these cars, but they’re certainly not practical for daily commuting.

I would gladly ride to work in a shared, automated, electric SUV or bus. Why stay stuck in traffic, resenting other drivers and feeling bored and restless when you could be chatting with ridemates, playing a video game, watching something really good on a screen, reading your favorite humor columnist, texting comments to friends and family, and more?

I have appreciated researching and writing about the subject matter for previously mentioned publications. I’ve also appreciated my freelance writing with Autoblog Green, Hybridcars.com, and Oilprice.com. I had some good years conducting market intelligence studies on car rental, business travel, and travel management for Abrams Travel Data Services. I’ve also valued participating in speaker panels at AltCar Expo. I do look forward to what’s next, and expect that Covid-19 will be overcome and we’ll get back the business of green cars, fuels, and technologies.

And in other news:

White House finalizes clean car rules:  Last week, the Trump administration announced its rollback of Obama-era fuel-economy regulations from 2012, which aimed to require automakers to up the average fuel economy in their fleets to 54.5 mpg within the next few years. The administration finalized the second part of the rollback, which is formally known as the Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles rule. The second part of the SAFE rule would require automakers to increase the fuel economy of passenger cars by 1.5 percent each year. That’s far less stringent than the standards set by the Obama administration, which mandated a 5 percent annual increase in fuel economy. But it’s less dramatic than the Trump administration’s original plan, which was to freeze the standards at 2020 levels through model year 2026. Court challenges are expected to be filed once again. President Trump posted tweets similar to comments he’d made last year: ”My proposal to the politically correct Automobile Companies would lower the average price of a car to consumers by more than $3500, while at the same time making the cars substantially safer,” he tweeted. “Engines would run smoother. Positive impact on the environment! Foolish executives!”

Automakers close plants, making ventilators:  Here’s a list of US auto factory shutdowns and scheduled dates of reopening in 14 states across the US. Several of the plants will be opening up again this month, between April 13 to 20. Ford and General Motors announced in late March that they’ll be building thousands of ventilators to fight Covid-19. These are taking place in plants that had been shut down from car production. Tesla is showing a new video posted on the company’s YouTube channel, where its engineers show off two versions of a ventilator, a prototype model with its components laid out across a desk, as well as a packaged model that shows how it might look when used by a hospital. CEO Elon Musk made a commitment to build the ventilators last month after New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio asked for the company’s help.

BYD wants to improve EV battery safety:  BYD last week unveiled its Blade Battery, designed to resolve concerns about battery safety in electric vehicles. At an online launch event, Wang Chuanfu, BYD’s chairman and president, said that the Blade Battery reflects BYD’s determination to resolve issues in battery safety while also redefining safety standards for the entire industry. The Blade Battery has been developed by BYD over the past several years. Due to its optimized battery pack structure, the space utilization of the battery pack is increased by over 50 percent compared to conventional lithium iron phosphate block batteries. While undergoing nail penetration tests, the Blade Battery emitted neither smoke nor fire after being penetrated, and its surface temperature only reached 30 C (86 F) to 60 C (140 F). It would be far less susceptible to catching fire – even when they are severely damaged — than other batteries on the market.

China extending EV sales incentives:  China agreed to extend tax breaks and subsidies on electric-vehicle purchases for two years to provide relief for the struggling industry in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. The government will keep waiving the 10 percent sales tax on EVs, a benefit that began in 2014 and was due to expire at the end of this year, through 2022, according to a media report. The state council overseeing the program also agreed to prolong subsidies for EV purchases for two years. The sales tax waiver and subsidies apply to battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

Emissions drop during pandemic:  The coronavirus pandemic is offering one advantage: shutting down industrial activity and temporarily slashing air pollution levels around the world, satellite imagery from the European Space Agency shows according to Wired. Readings from ESA’s Sentinel-5P satellite show that over the past six weeks, levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) over cities and industrial clusters in Asia and Europe were markedly lower than in the same period last year. Nitrogen dioxide produced from car engines, power plants, and other industrial processes, is thought to exacerbate respiratory illnesses such as asthma.
(Editor’s Note: Look for the April issue of Wired to read a special section on climate change, entitled, “We Have One Earth — And The Technology To Save It. Go!”)

Personal mobility and advanced vehicle technologies moving beyond theory into reality

There have been a few news breaks in recent weeks about automakers expanding technology offerings and acquiring new partners. They reinforce the idea that OEMs are moving beyond building and selling cars to offering a wide range of transportation services.

  • Faraday Future FFZERO1Faraday Future: This Chinese startup has been getting a lot of attention in the past few months, with that culminating at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. The company is backed by Chinese billionaire Jia Yueting and plans to build a 900-acre, $1 billion factory in Nevada in the near future. Faraday Future unveiled the Batmobile-like FFZERO1 in Las Vegas, which has four electric motors (one at each wheel) combined that deliver more than 1,000 horsepower, enough to send the car from 0 to 60 mph in under three seconds and to a top speed of 200 mph. What’s been most interesting about Faraday is the platform architecture that it’s built on. It’s very flexible – Faraday can add or remove batteries, shorten or extend the chassis depending on the body that will be attached, or other applications. It’s a much faster process than what traditional OEMs go through – new vehicles can be production ready in 18 to 24 months, the company said. There’s talk about Faraday Future vehicles being deployed in Uber-like ridesharing services and as autonomous vehicles. Wherever this new startup is heading, it gained a wave of buzz and news coverage at CES and the Detroit Auto Show.
  • Maven: General Motors Co. has raised eyebrows in the auto industry since the beginning of this year with its $500 million investment in ridesharing company Lyft and acquisition of the assets of Sidecar, the third largest ridesharing company in the U.S. after Uber and Lyft. The story is getting even better. GM has just launched Maven, a carsharing service allowing users to access a Chevrolet vehicle on the new Maven mobile app for as little as $6 per hour, similar to what Zipcar offers. Services will start up in Ann Arbor, Mich., and will expand over to New York City, Chicago, and a peer-to-peer sharing program in Germany, serving residents of Frankfurt and Berlin. This will be in addition to ridesharing services (and eventually autonomous vehicles) through its relationships with Lyft and Sidecar. GM expects 25 million customers to use ride-sharing services globally by 2020, up from between five and six million today.
  • Ford: CEO Mark Fields described Ford’s continued commitment to urban mobility during a keynote speech at CES and at the Detroit Auto Show – and now there’s also FordPass. Fields thinks that transportation services are the biggest area of potential growth for automakers following a year of sales the industry may never surpass (and that will eventually shrink). Ford Motor Co. just launched a new app-based platform called FordPass. It lets users access a variety of transportation services including paying for downtown parking or sharing their vehicle. The app has four main service categories: a marketplace for mobility services; “FordGuides,” who are accessible through texts or phone calls for guidance and needed information; “FordHubs,” which are actual buildings across the globe where customers can experience Ford technology; and a loyalty program in which app users can earn points and rewards. These services are being carried out through partnerships with mobility companies and Silicon Valley-based startups. Last year, Ford tested a carsharing program in six U.S. cities; this may be one of the FordPass services announced in the future.
  • Daimler: In September 2014, Daimler acquired ridesharing apps RideScout and myTaxi. It was part of Daimler’s continued push beyond car manufacturing and into developing technology for urban mobility. Along with its major carsharing division, Car2go, Daimler has been looking into a wide spectrum of personal mobility services to offer in global markets. Complications have come up for Daimler with a German court ruling this month that heavily discounted fares offered to customers who paid electronically via the myTaxi app were illegal. The case was file by German taxi operator group Taxi Deutschland, which offers a competing app. MyTaxi operates in 40 European cities, including in Germany, Austria, Italy, Poland, Spain, and Switzerland. The app has more than 10 million registered users, the company says.
  • Tesla Motors has been tweaking safety features on its Autopilot connected car/autonomous vehicle service. Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the car will now reduce its speed in anticipation of curves on the highway, but added he was not aware of any accidents caused by the earlier version of the software. The function will now be restricted on residential roads or roads without a center divider, so that the Model S or Model X can’t drive faster than the speed limit maximum plus five miles per hour. There have been several videos on YouTube in recent months showing near-misses on roads with Autopilot, which has pushed Tesla into addressing safety features. Musk said Autopilot was “probably better than human at this point in highway driving,” able to keep to its lane using cameras, radar, and mapping.

 

Finding the right niche markets for advanced vehicle technologies

advanced vehicle technologiesAutomotive analysts have been writing about declining sales in electric and hybrid vehicles in recent months, with the downturn in gasoline prices being one of the primary reasons for it. Navigant Research forecasts that the average price of gasoline will reach $10.75, accounting for inflation, in 2035, as alternative fuels and diesel become more popular. In the meantime, it’s likely that niche markets become more viable for OEMs; gas prices may stay soft for a while, but there are other significant motivating factors for vehicle acquisitions, with traffic congestion, an aging population, development of autonomous vehicles, and concern over environmental quality among them. Here are a few niche segments to follow………

Neighborhood Electric Vehicles: GreenTech Automotive is counting on low-speed electric vehicles finding the right audience as it ramps up at its Mississippi plant to build its MyCar neighborhood electric vehicle (NEV). Pike Research had forecasted that NEVs on roads throughout the world would increase from 479,000 in 2011 to 695,000 by 2017. Communities around the US are trying out NEVs on restricted roads to see how that affects air pollution and traffic congestion.

Self-Driving Cars: Google has said that one of the reasons the technology giant is investing in self-driving car test projects is that people with disabilities will have greater transportation options. It will also take human error out of driving and improve road safety. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or drones, have been closely tracked by proponents of self-driving cars as a technology that will cross over into ground transportation. Lux Research sees potential for market growth in UAVs as they move from military surveillance drones to broader commercial vehicles if government regulations allow for it. Government agencies are ruminating over safety and privacy concerns.

Fuel Cell Vehicles: Fuel cell vehicles powered by hydrogen have been ending up as forklifts in warehouses, distribution centers, and manufacturing facilities as companies such as BMW, Coca-Cola, Fed-Ex, and Wal-Mart recognize the quick refueling times and enhanced performance that fuel cell forklifts deliver.

Propane Autogas: Police departments are trying out propane autogas as a way to use a clean, domestically produced fuel with lower cost per mile than gasoline. Other propane vehicle applications in recent years include: buses, light- and medium-duty trucks, shuttle buses, taxis, landscape equipment, and agricultural equipment.

Drayage and Other Port Vehicles: Vehicles used in drayage, trucking, and other functions at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are being powered by liquefied natural gas (LNG), electricity, hydrogen, and clean diesel. Clean vehicle programs have been adopted by these and other ports in the US to improve air quality and support alternative, domestic fuels.

NGV Trash Trucks: Waste Management, Inc., has embraced natural gas to power its refuse/trash truck fleet. Some of that has been produced from its landfill gas projects. Municipalities are considering using natural gas vehicles, hybrids, and other alternative fuels and technologies in their fleets. They’ve been watching their transit agencies go this route in recent years and are seeing payoff within two-to-three years from fuel cost savings and meeting government mandates on reducing emissions.