Category: clean transportation

Taking a deeper look at alternative fuel vehicle sales figures

Take a look at this chart, which WardsAuto published in late February showing something quite rare: detailed sales numbers on every type of alternative fuel vehicle sold in the US over the past five years in the light-duty passenger vehicle market. WardsAuto is getting these numbers from its own internal database of sales figures. I’m not sure what the “Unspecified Gas/Diesel” category means, and WardsAuto has not yet responded to my inquiry about it. However, looking at each of the vehicle categories offers a comprehensive view of market trends…….

  • Hybrids continue to make up the largest share of US new vehicle sales for alt-fuel vehicles, but “clean diesel” isn’t far behind – 3.2% of total market share for hybrids in 2013 versus 2.85% for diesel. Some would argue that diesel shouldn’t be analyzed at all as an alternative fuel – it still comes entirely from oil; regardless, it is getting considered as an alternative by a few analysts as more Americans are starting to own them for passenger cars for the first time ever in place of gasoline engine vehicles. Strong performance and fuel efficiency are helping German automakers sell them in this market, and US automakers are starting to get into that space.
  • Electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles made up .64% of new vehicle sales last year – only two thirds of a percent. However, the growth rate since starting plug-in sales in late 2010 is outstripping where hybrid sales, mainly from Toyota and Honda, were performing in their first years in the early 2000s. There are more EVs coming to market this year and beyond, which should help grow their sales numbers – along with pricing coming down and more charging stations being installed around the country.
  • Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle sales are still very small; the Hyundai Tucson Fuel Cell vehicle is going to be on the market by early summer and has a production volume target of 1,000 units through 2015. There will be other models coming on the market through Toyota and Honda next year.
  • Hybrid sales are nearing 500,000 units per year, jumping up significantly in 2012. Forecasters, including JD Power and Associates, see hybrids growing in sales percentages in the next 10 years. There’s a lot more hybrid vehicle options at dealerships now than about five years ago, and that will continue to grow.
  • Compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicle numbers are very small with very little available on the retail market – the Honda Civic Natural Gas being about it. The Ford F-150 half-ton that can run on natural gas and propane came on the market last summer, and Chrysler and GM have heavier pickups more suited to commercial usage than passenger. Parent company Fiat Chrysler Automobiles has interest in more CNG-powered vehicles coming to the US, as natural gas has played an important role in Italian transportation since the 1950s.

Educating and training the electrified transportation workforce

electric vehicle techniciansIt was fascinating to participate last week at “Transportation Electrification Curriculum Roadmap Workshop,” which was organized by Brett Williams and J.R. DeShazo of UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation. It was hosted by Southern California Edison at its SCE Energy Education Center in Irwindale, Calif. The focus of that day was on challenges being faced by education programs training students in community colleges and universities to serve the growing industry of electric vehicles (EVs), electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE), and charging infrastructure.

I was wearing my consultant hat – it was not a public media event – but I would like to present some of the important information shared that day (identities of participants beyond the two organizers will remain anonymous for now). Much of the insightful information came from instructors and directors at education and training programs on campuses all over Southern California. Along with education professionals, there were people from government agencies, utilities, automakers, fleet management, and research centers. Here’s a few interesting points that were made that day…..

  • Community college and university administrators have been very restrictive about how much funding they’ve been willing to contribute to the education programs. Program directors had to get creative about securing funding, and much of this has come from grant funding outside the school and from corporate contributors.
  • Part of the day was spent analyzing job categories and statistics compiled by Luskin Center based primarily on the US Bureau of Labor Statistics job categories. There’s concern that the job definitions and categories are limited right now – there’s a lot of new and emerging jobs in the US economy that include solar energy and electrified transportation. So the federal and state reports that education programs are using now (and which influence funding) are limited and need to see some change. Educators would like to see the jargon for job classifications standardized in a way making it clear and accessible for everyone.
  • Getting young people engaged in seeking training and education in electrified transportation is a bit of a challenge. The college programs are growing, but educators are wanting to inform communities about their programs – and that would include high school teachers and administrators, students, parents, local government agencies, and others.
  • Program directors are spending as much of their time getting their students jobs and securing funding as they are teaching classes. That’s where creating internships and externships for students is paying off, along with student workshops and research projects.
  • Students are interested in becoming certified service technicians for dealers and fleets; others are getting graduate degrees in engineering to meet the growing demand for advanced vehicle technology integration. There’s also a lot of need for EVSE and charging infrastructure workers to keep EVs on the road.
  • The National Institute for Automotive Service Excellence (ASE) is working on certification for electric and hybrid vehicle technicians. That’s very much needed out there.
  • Another area of interest and training programs is “first responder” safety training for paramedics, firefighters, and others who rescue drivers from EV collisions. As students have asked me about when I’ve done high school presentations, there is a good deal of concern about safety when working with EVs. “Second responders” is also a big group – such as tow truck drivers and storage and wrecking yards. Cars can potentially catch on fire up to a week later, so education and training is needed in this area.
  • Another question:  What to do about electric passenger cars and commercial vehicles (such as bucket trucks and delivery vans) that come off warranty coverage and need regular service?
  • Social media has its advantages in getting the word out to young people and EV enthusiasts. One participant shared that 50% of EV information in social media is being posted on Twitter. Posting photos and videos on social media is getting a lot of hits – with instructors teaching students what they should know about EV technology. Smartphone EV charging apps are also getting a lot of interest.
  • One point that I made at the end (and rambled on a little too long about – my apologies to the group) is that I’d like to see questions that EV buyers ask answered in these programs so that instructors and students can address them. As I learned once again last week in the Green Auto Market reader survey results, there’s a lot of concern among industry stakeholders about how we can effectively answer frequently asked questions that consumers, fleets, and other vehcle buyers have. They want to know if it’s worth their investment of time and money – acquisition costs and incentives, lifecycle ownership costs, and how it all compares to traditional gasoline ICE vehicles; and then there’s always range anxiety. Then there’s the question of the chicken or the egg – what needs to happen to make this all work – more affordable electric vehicles on the market or enough charging stations to alleviate fears of being stranded.
  • This working group on EV workforce training will be meeting again to keep these critical issues moving forward for the next generation of the EV workforce.

What Green Auto Market readers are most interested in – and what needs to happen for this industry to move forward

reader surveyMany thanks to readers who’ve taken the survey this month. Your responses were insightful and very similar to what I’ve learned from having conversations with stakeholders in the industry, reading media coverage, reviewing survey reports, and reading studies by market analysts. Overall, plug-in electric vehicles, hybrids, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and natural gas vehicles (in that order) have the most interest; the charging and fueling infrastructure is right up there, too. It was also rewarding to get feedback on what’s needed in the marketplace for my business, LeSage Consulting,– and to see that it fits in with what stakeholders have been saying to me for a long time about the need out there for effective educational content to address concerns about ownership costs and range anxiety – and if this new industry is making a real difference with environmental issues, governmental policies, and economics.

Educating market segments on the financial side of the question is top priority – acquisition costs and incentives, lifecycle ownership costs, and how it all compares to traditional gasoline ICE vehicles. Availability and accessibility of charging and alternative fueling stations was also high on the list. As for the most important stakeholder groups, consumers finished first, followed by fleets, government agencies, and OEMs (car and truck makers).

There is a lot of interest out there in what’s going on in other industries and technologies and how it will affect automotive and transportation. As for the top five related topics that readers want to stay current on:  next generation batteries for electric vehicles and hybrids; global market conditions for alternative fuel vehicles and clean transportation; regulatory, political, and economic issues affecting alternative fuels and vehicles; futuristic advanced technologies used in fuels such as biofuels and biomass, hydrogen, methanol, dimethyl ether (DME), and renewable natural gas (also known as biogas); and how alternative fuels and energies are being used in other industries such as stationary units, air conditioning, power generation, and industrial applications.

So what’s the tipping point for getting green vehicle shoppers to make that purchase decision? What methods are most effective? Number one: vehicle specifications, pricing, and incentive data; Number two: ride and drives; Number three: answers to frequently asked questions; Number four: video interviews and presentations, and Number five: step by step guides making purchase decisions.

Special thanks to survey respondents who added open-end comments, which you can read below. There is fascination with advanced technologies and where vehicles are heading; creating the charging infrastructure that’s needed for electric vehicles to stride forward; and the source of energy – is that electricity really clean that’s fueling your zero emission vehicle? Here are the results from the reader survey……….

What topics are you most interested in reading about in Green Auto Market?

  1. Plug-in electric vehicles
  2. Hybrids
  3. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles
  4. Charging and fueling infrastructures
  5. Natural gas vehicles
  6. Vehicle ownership and operating cost savings
  7. Research and development on advanced fuels and technologies
  8. Government regulations and incentives
  9. Vehicle emissions reductions
  10. Fuel-efficient driving and reducing idle time

What issues do you think need to be addressed to gain more interest and purchase activity from vehicle owners?

  • Total cost of ownership – green vehicle versus conventional vehicle  79%
  • Availability and accessibility of charging and alternative fueling stations  71%
  • Lifecycle ownership experience including charging and fueling, maintenance, repair, and remarketing  62.5%
  • Purchase price and incentives  54%
  • Safety of drivers and passengers in green vehicles  29%
  • Manufacturing and fueling the vehicle with energy efficient and environmentally responsible methods 25%
  • Gains alternative fuel vehicles are making in environmental, energy, and economic issues  21%
  • Payment methods for charging and fueling stations  21%
  • Ride and drive opportunities  21%
  • Connectivity with mobile devices  12.5%

    • Other:

  • Education related to how new technologies will be adopted over time. People in general need to put into context the magnitude of the change/transition that comes with moving away from gasoline ICE’s.
  • Long range between refueling events.
  • There are many smaller companies trying to start EV companies; they need access to funding. Only these companies want to bring the price of EV’s down; gas OEM’s don’t want EV’s and are not working on affordable EV’s. HELP!
  • New charging technologies, I read something a couple of months ago about a girl winning a science fair with almost instant charging. Real??
  • Since most electricity comes from coal powered plants how are they positively effecting the environment
  • Workplace charging infrastructure and programs
  • Technology transfer from auto racing use of hybrid and all-electric vehicles

How would you rank these stakeholder groups in importance for shaping the future of alternative fuel vehicles and clean transportation?

  1. Consumers
  2. Fleets
  3. Government agencies
  4. Original equipment manufacturers (car and truck makers)
  5. Transportation providers (such as delivery and trucking)
  6. Corporations
  7. Charging and fueling infrastructure providers
  8. Energy companies
  9. Auto dealers
  10. Environmental groups

What are some of the related topics that you’d be interested in reading about in Green Auto Market?

  • Next generation batteries for electric vehicles and hybrids  87%
  • Global market conditions for alternative fuel vehicles and clean transportation 65%
  • Regulatory, political, and economic issues affecting alternative fuels and vehicles 56.5%
  • Futuristic advanced technologies used in fuels such as biofuels and biomass, hydrogen, methanol, dimethyl ether (DME), and renewable natural gas (also known as biogas)  48%
  • How alternative fuels and energies are being used in other industries such as stationary units, air conditioning, power generation, and industrial applications 48%
  • Renewable energy including solar, wind, and hydro power  43.5%
  • Futuristic advanced technologies used in aerospace, auto racing, bikes, and military vehicles  35%
  • Sustainability campaigns in corporations, non-profit organizations, and government agencies  30.5%
  • Energy efficiency in manufacturing and production, residential and commercial buildings, and other areas 26%

    • Other:

  • Historical context of previous technology transitions (preference to transportation, but doesn’t need to be)
  • Driverless vehicles!!
  • Finding investors for new start-ups. Introducing new startups to your readers? The big auto guys don’t want EV’s and none of them are making money on EV’s. We need innovators like new start-ups that can bring affordable EV’s to the market

What methods do you think would be most effective in promoting support for purchasing decisions and public perception?

  • Vehicle specifications, pricing, and incentive data  65%
  • Ride and drives  52%
  • Answers to frequently asked questions  48%
  • Video interviews and presentations  43.5%
  • Step by step guides making purchase decisions  39%
  • Newsletters and blogs  22%
  • Whitepapers and reports  22%
  • Industry metrics including sales figures and alternative fuel prices  13 %
  • Podcasts and internet radio  13%

    • Other:

  • Actual range performance
  • Vehicle performance, vehicle appearance and comfort
  • Pricing, Pricing and Pricing.
  • Safety
  • Television
  • Carpool stickers