Biofuels and bioenergy have been going through a constructive transformation in recent years similar to other clean fuels and energy. Like hydrogen, the source of the biofuels and energy is diversifying as is end-user applications. Production capacity has been increasing.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently reported that the capacity to produce biofuels increased 7% in the United States during 2023, reaching 24 billion gallons per year at the start of 2024, led by a 44% increase in renewable diesel and other biofuels. The other biofuels includes renewable heating oil, renewable jet fuel (also known as sustainable aviation fuel), and renewable naphtha and gasoline. With continuing state and federal tax incentives, and regulatory policies, plant expansions, and projected new plant construction, EIA expects U.S. biofuels production capacity to continue increasing.

Ethanol that gets blended into gasoline at 10-to-15 percent is still dominated by corn, with the U.S. Dept. of Energy reporting that 94% is produced from the starch in corn grain. Cellulosic ethanol, which comes from either waste, coproduces of another industry (wood, crop residues) or dedicated crops such as switchgrass, is seeing an increase in consumption as ethanol-blended fuel use increases around the world.

The number of fuel stations in the U.S. offering E-15 was 4,495 in 2023, up from 2,839 in 2014, according to USDA Economic Research Service – U.S. Bioenergy Statistics. Biodiesel at fuel stations increased from 782 stations in 2014 to 1,700 in 2023.

As you can see from these two tables created by the USDA Economic Research Service, ethanol used in fuel and renewable diesel have been seeing increases in production and consumption over the past decade. Renewable diesel has seen dramatic gains, similar to renewable natural gas, as the the supply and consumption continue to grow, backed by government mandates and technology improvements in the production and distribution channels.

Here are a few other news developments in this sector:

• The U.S. Department of Energy’s Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) announced their intent to issue funding to support high-impact research and development (R&D) projects in two priority areas: sustainable propane and renewable chemicals and algal system cultivation and preprocessing. The intended Sustainable Propane and Renewable Chemicals (SPARC) funding opportunity would support R&D of domestic chemicals and fuels from biomass and waste resources to help secure domestic supply chains, support the growth of rural economies, and grow the nation’s competitiveness in the biotechnology and biomanufacturing industry. It could include up to $23 million in federal funding.
• The intended Maximizing Algal System Yield (MASY) funding opportunity would support applied algal system R&D to improve the affordable production of biofuels and bioproducts. While algal systems can be highly productive, there are technical barriers that limit the expansion of algae as a domestic bioenergy feedstock. The MASY funding opportunity will address these challenges by focusing on algal system cultivation and preprocessing R&D to advance affordable and reliable development of innovative algae technologies that can support algae developers bring these new bioproducts to market. The potential MASY NOFO could include up to $10 million in federal funding and is expected to be released in January 2025.
• Renewable natural gas (RNG) could scale up sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by utilizing established gas-to-liquid (GTL) technologies, according to Biofuels Digest. These technologies could include SynCOR autothermal reforming and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) synthesis. This approach combines proven processes with innovative adaptations, creating a high-carbon-efficiency pathway for SAF production. It could also mean another significant market for RNG to serve with new mandates globally driving adoption of SAF.
• Gevo, a Colorado-based renewable chemicals and advanced biofuels company, has worked with LG Chem to extend their joint development agreement. The agreement extension enables LG Chem to assess existing assets for deploying Gevo’s Ethanol-to-Olefins (ETO) technology while accelerating commercialization activities, considering project scale and end-product markets. Gevo’s patented ETO technology can target carbon-neutral or carbon-negative drop-in replacements for traditional petroleum-based building blocks. These are core olefins, that can be used for renewable fuels and chemicals, including sustainable aviation fuel and bio-propylene. ETO technology is just one of multiple patented technologies that Gevo is bringing to bear on the challenges of developing cost-effective bio-based renewable fuels and chemicals.
• A marine research engine at the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Oak Ridge National Laboratory is providing scientists with valuable insights into biofuel design for large ocean-going vessels (OGVs) in a multi-lab project focused on reducing total life-cycle carbon emissions from this vital transportation sector. Scientists at DOE’s national laboratories knew their work on biofuels for marine use would be needed to meet the revised target. Their efforts are concentrated on large OGVs like cargo and container ships, which account for more than 80% of all transported goods and 3% of global GHG emissions. 
• Major oil and gas companies have ramped up investments in the biofuels sector, betting on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), with 43 projects expected to be up and running by 2030, consultancy Rystad said in a report. The energy research firm indicates that investments by industry giants such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, Shell, TotalEnergies, and Eni could add 286,000 barrels per day (bpd) of production capacity.

California ZEV law under scrutiny: On Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court announced that it will review whether the oil industry has the standing to challenge the existence of California’s zero emission vehicle standards, which are stricter than the federal fuel economy and greenhouse gas emissions rules. The case filed by oil companies, other fuel producers and 17 other states, argued that the federal government exceeded its authority under the Clean Air Act when it granted California a waiver to set its own tougher auto emissions standards. The justices rejected the fuel industry’s request to consider whether it was unlawful for the Biden administration to grant California the federal waiver. The Supreme Court will be examine whether the fuel companies that appealed a lower court ruling have the standing to sue.
This case will be considered as the Trump team plans to cut electric vehicle tax credits, roll back emissions standards, and limit funding for EV charging deployment; and as the Biden administration may soon allow California and at least 11 other states to set new emissions standards that would allow for the sale of primarily EVs by 2035, according to reports.

CA approves $1.4B for charging and fueling: The California Energy Commission (CEC) on Dec. 11 approved a $1.4 billion investment plan that accelerates progress on the state’s electric vehicle (EV) charging and hydrogen refueling goals. These investments will help deploy infrastructure for light, medium, and heavy-duty zero-emission vehicles (ZEV) across California, expanding the most extensive charging and hydrogen refueling network in the country. The plan details how the CEC’s Clean Transportation Program will spend $1.4 billion in state funding over the next four years, with at least 50 percent targeted to benefit priority populations. The funding is part of the $48 billion California Climate Commitment, which includes more than $10 billion for ZEVs and ZEV infrastructure. It ties into the state also receiving billions from the Biden-Harris Administration for clean transportation.
 
AirNow mobile app update: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has updated the AirNow mobile app to allow users to receive optional push notifications of their local Air Quality Index forecasts for the next day. State and local air agencies issue AQI forecasts as a public service to help people plan their outdoor activities. The agencies provide them to EPA, which shares them on the AirNow app and Airnow.gov website. Until now, AirNow users had to remember to check the app or website to see their forecasts; with the updates to the AirNow mobile app, people can opt to be notified when the daily forecast reaches an AQI category of their choosing. You can find more information on AirNow with links to Apple and Android apps at this link.

Volvo and DHL partnering on AVs: Volvo Autonomous Solutions (V.A.S.) and DHL Supply Chain recently announced their first step in performing autonomous freight operations in the U.S., utilizing a purpose-built, production-ready Volvo VNL Autonomous powered by the Aurora Driver. Drivers will be onboard during an initial phase to monitor performance and integration into the logistics networks. “Early adopters play a pivotal role in accelerating the deployment and acceptance of autonomous technology, enabling us to validate both safety and operational performance,” said Sasko Cuklev, head of On-Road Solutions at Volvo Autonomous Solutions. “Our collaboration with DHL Supply Chain exemplifies the potential of autonomy as a complementary mode of transport that increases freight capacity and optimizes supply chain efficiencies.”

NVIDIA is one of those companies that can stay in stealth mode — you’ll forget about it until you see another strategic alliance or the fact that it’s market cap places it at No. 1 or No. 2 in the world. It’s role and presence is so pervasive in different sectors that the company can be taken for granted. It’s become a major player in artificial intelligence computing, which will be essential to electrified autonomous vehicles being accurately integrated into vehicle-to-everything (V2X) technology; and gaming chips is another large part of its business during a time when gaming continues to bring in even more revenue than movies for entertainment companies.

It’s become visible enough for China to use it as a reaction to Washington for setting more control over the Chinese chip sector. The Chinese agency that charged the violations didn’t elaborate on how NIVIDIA actually violated China’s anti-monopoly laws, according to published reports. Last week, the U.S. caused the flare up by launching its third crackdown in three years on China’s semiconductor industry.

On the topic of V2X technology, vehicles in the near future will have to share real-time information with everything from other cars to pedestrians and traffic lights. That’s still being worked out by regulators, but NVIDIA is expected to be one of the main companies creating the pathway for autonomous vehicles to reach mass market.

The Santa Clara, Calif.-based company designs and supplies graphics processing units (GPUs), application programming interfaces (APIs) for data science and high-performance computing. It also produces a system on a chip units (SoCs) for mobile computing and the automotive market.

As of Monday at 9:30 am pacific time, it came in at No. 2 behind Apple’s $3.73 trillion in market cap; with NVIDIA trading at $3.39 trillion. It had been No. 1 for several months. Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet (Google) came in next on the ranking.

The tech giant says that more than 40,000 companies use NVIDIA AI technologies, and more than 4 million developers now create create thousand of applications for accelerated computing.

Chipmakers have been eyeing NVIDIA as the ‘one to beat.’ Automakers and their dealer networks create virtual showrooms and car configurators, develop in-vehicle AI assistants, and validate autonomous driving technology — all with NVIDIA AI, Omniverse, and accelerated computing platforms.

One of the most interesting parts of the company’s story is that it’s had the same CEO, Jensen Huang, since its inception in 1993. He’s considered to be a persuasive, hard-working leader to work for, and is one of the very few corporate lone founders to still be running the show.

Lucid Gravity coming up: Lucid has started production at its Casa Grande, Arizona factory of its second offering, the Gravity all-electric SUV. The three-row Gravity will begin sales with the Grand Touring version, and it will start at $96,550. More affordable versions are expected to roll out but not until late 2025, and it’s unclear when exactly deliveries will begin. The Air sedan has a $70,000 starting price, and its getting strong ratings from reviewers.

EVPKI simplifying charging: SAE Industry Technologies Consortia is working with the U.S.’s Joint Office of Energy and Transportation to create a framework that will enable secure automatic authentication as soon as drivers plug in – a capability known as “Plug & Charge.” That will simplify the charging process so that electric vehicles can go to any public charging station and automatically start charging, with no payment processing step required. It’s taken shape through SAE’s Electric Vehicle Public Key Infrastructure (EVPKI) Consortium. The SAE EVPKI Certificate Trust List Requirements (CTL) is the basis for onboarding industry PKI suppliers to the new framework. It will mean faster, automated charging and improved cybersecurity protocols. The consortia is made up of automakers, charging networks, technology suppliers, DOE and DOT, and SAE.

Nex-gen Honda is promising: Honda is committed to making solid-state batteries the leading technology for bringing electric vehicles to a new level — up to 620 miles per charge. Honda says that it’s upcoming solid-state batteries will be 50% smaller, 35% lighter, and 25% cheaper to manufacture than current liquid-based lithium-ion cells. The solid electrolyte cells could also be much safer than what is readily available on the market today, and it can accept much higher charging speeds. The Japanese automaker says it will be available by the end of this decade — and a version that goes 776 miles will come out sometime around 2040.

AI and investigative reporting: Journalists are gaining access to artificial intelligence resources that are available now — some of it free, and some of it for a fee, such as ChatGPT’s GPTs. Luiz Fernando Toledo, a Brazilian investigative journalist well known on CNN and several other media outlets, offers several signs of hope about media professionals using these new resources. He and his work colleagues have had success with a few free offerings in the AI space, too. This is from my Substack ‘Discovery’ column, and offers a look at the role AI can play in a sector that’s been hard hit by economic and technological changes for those working in the field.

What would happen if the Trump administration puts a stop to electric vehicle tax credits next year? It will probably be a bumpy year, with the market counting on a few states to offer good incentives.

Don’t get your hopes up too high, says Jay Turner, an environmental studies professor at Wellesley College who studies the market. Californians will be happy to see Gov. Gavin Newsom’s recent announcement that the state will work hard at filling the gap if the feds cut their tax incentive.

What about other states? Colorado and Massachusetts already offer substantial support that EV buyers can combine with those on offer from the federal government, Turner said. But the gains made through the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 will likely dry up as the Republican-led House and Senate come together in January.

Will Trump’s newfound friend and ally, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, tap into their relationship when it comes to EV sales? Tesla long ago went over the line on the cap of EVs sold getting access to the federal tax credit. That changed at the beginning of 2023 with the Inflation Reduction Act changing the rules — with some of the Tesla models qualifying depending on specifications for each tax payer. The KBB chart above provides some of those details. As for Tesla vehicles under the newer guidelines and whether you qualify, that will depend on your own tax status under the Inflation Reduction Act. “Your eligibility for any tax credits depends on your personal tax situation. We recommend speaking with a tax professional for guidance,” Tesla’s website says.

How Utilities Can Thrive As EV Demand Grows: Utilities can handle more demand on their grid as electric vehicles grow in numbers and charging hours, according to a new study by AES Indiana, a utility subsidiary of global power firm AES Corp. The study analyzed AES Indiana’s service territory with different applications of how it uses data and sets its rates. Utilities will be able to save money even as EV demand grows as they prepare to charge a larger number of EVs in the coming years — even if EV adopting in their system isn’t yet a high level. EVs have large battery packs with the potential to both load and offload electricity, which will be part of solving grid problems. With growing out a grid system can be costly, building it out with realistic usage data would help solve the problem, according to the study.

What about hydrogen under Trump administration?: Like other alternative fuels, President Trump has not been supportive. As for hydrogen, “The one thing I can’t get used to is hydrogen. You know, the story with hydrogen, it’s great until it blows up,” newly reelected Trump said during a rally in October 2024, repeating a claim he has made that hydrogen vehicles run a risk of exploding. While hydrogen is seeing a growing list of users for heating, industrial machinery, and transportation, it’s likely to be affected by Trump’s rollbacks tied to the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. One of those benefits was the 45V hydrogen tax credit. One advantage it has is that many hydrogen hub projects are concentrated in Republican-held states, says Kyle Hayes, a partner of Foley & Lardner, which implies that its unlikely to be on Trump’s list of rollbacks. Hydrogen secured a lot of funding through the H2Hubs program in the federal funding. Two hydrogen hub projects in the US Midwest, and Texas, secure up to $2.2bn in federal funds.

California charging incentives: Don’t forget that you can save money with Communities in Charge electric vehicle (EV) charging incentives. Up to 100% of eligible Level 2 AC costs may be covered, says Chargepoint. The California Energy Commission’s Communities in Charge incentive is providing $30 million in EV charging station funds for qualifying sites. Funds cover up to $6,500 per Level 2 AC port or 100% of eligible costs, whichever is less.

RNG looking good: During an Oct. 29 earnings call, BP CEO Murray Auchincloss said he was still optimistic that BP subsidiary Archaea could build 15 new renewable natural gas plants in 2024, despite the company only being about halfway to that goal by the end of the third quarter. Seven plants are ‘online and operating.’ Getting up to 15 is realistic for Archaea, he said. Other companies are going forward, too. Waste Management (WM) expects to have seven RNG projects online by end of the year in its 20-project portfolio. Republic Services has finished four projects so far this year, and expects four more to be done by end of year. Smaller waste management companies are also going forward, Wastetdive reports.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk may get a payback for supporting Donald Trump’s presidential reelection campaign. Members of the president-elect’s transition team say that a plan to create a federal framework for autonomous vehicles is one of the U.S. Dept. of Transportation’s top priorities, according to confidential sources. Musk, who has been a major contributor to Trump’s campaign, has made self-driving technology and artificial intelligence the foundation of where the EV maker is heading.

Tesla has been offering full self-driving capability on all of its new vehicles in recent years, and the company may be offering robotaxi services. The federal government has taken longer to clear policy for allowing for self-driving cars than automakers like Tesla had hoped for.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration currently permits manufacturers to deploy 2,500 self-driving vehicles per year under a granted exemption. The federal agency has safety investigations underway, including driver-assistance systems and autonomous vehicles that Tesla offers through its Autopilot and Full Self-Driving options.

Approval of autonomous vehicles at mass-market level will likely need full approval in Congress.

Tesla would also like to offer full self-driving technology early next year in China, according to Marketplace. That would require regulatory approval from Chinese officials. Cheese automakers would be competing with Tesla to take the lead in autonomous electric vehicles offered in that market.

Residual award winner: The 2025 Hyundai Kona Electric has earned a J.D. Power 2025 Best-in-Class Residual Value Award in the program’s newly introduced Mainstream EV SUV segment. Hyundai Motor America also announced that the 2025 Hyundai Santa Fe and IONIQ 6 did well in the residual value awards, both ranking second in their respective categories. These annual awards honor the new vehicles expected to retain the highest percentage of their original manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) over three years, which is essential for determining lease costs, overall vehicle value and total ownership cost.

EV Joint Venture: Rivian Automotive and Volkswagen Group have created a new joint venture, called “Rivian and VW Group Technology, LLC”. The deal came in at $5.8 billion. Through this JV, the companies plan to bring next-generation electrical architecture and best-in-class software technology for both companies’ future electric vehicles, covering all relevant vehicle segments, including subcompact cars. The JV reflects Rivian’s software and electrical hardware technology as well as Volkswagen Group’s significant global scale and industry-leading vehicle platform competencies.

Tesla facing safety problems: Distracted driving and higher rates of speed are behind a high crash rate for Tesla. Automotive research and data analytics firm iSeeCars reports that the Tesla Model Y has a fatal accident rate of more than three times the average car over a billion miles driven. The Model S is twice more likely to result in a fatal crash than the average car. The firm analyzed data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s Fatality Analysis Reporting System. It included model year 2018-2022 cars with crashes that resulted in at least one occupant fatality to identify the most dangerous vehicles.

“New cars are safer than they’ve ever been,” said Karl Brauer, iSeeCars Executive Analyst. “Between advanced chassis design, driver assist technology and an array of airbags surrounding the driver, today’s car models provide excellent occupant protection,” he added. “But these safety features are being countered by distracted driving and higher rates of speed, leading to rising accident and death rates in recent years.”

Battery prices: Goldman Sachs has released a report predicting that global average battery prices will decline to $80 per kilowatt hour (kwh) by 2026, which is almost 50% lower than the $149 per kwh in 2023. The price decrease has been coming from technological advancements, mainly around larger cells and cell-to-pack tech that lower the number of batter modules needed. A downturn in the price of raw materials is also helping, especially lithium and cobalt.

Hydrogen Summit: Clean Cities Georgia recently announced the Georgia Hydrogen Summit, which will take place Dec. 4, 2025, at the Historic Academy of Medicine. In partnership with the Southern Hydrogen Energy Alliance (SHEA), Georgia Institute of Technology, and Southern Company, the Summit will bring together businesses and organizations that wish to be at the forefront of adopting hydrogen energy within Georgia and throughout the Southeast.

Top News: You can expect the obvious when the Trump administration comes on board in January, says ClimateWire. Trump’s goal is to continue similar efforts as during his first term — rolling back pollution and climate change regulations, unleashing fossil fuel development, and withdrawing from international commitments like the Paris Agreement. On a brighter note, some Democrats think that clean energy projects coming from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will be supported in a few Republican districts. They mention a letter signed by 18 Republican representatives opposing efforts to repeal IRA as a reason to be optimistic about it.

California Air Resources Board (CARB) voted Friday to approve changes to its low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) that increases the state’s emission reduction targets and funds the charging infrastructure for zero-emission vehicles. It will also phase out incentives for capturing methane emissions from dairy farms to turn into fuel. The oil industry and a few analysts complained that the new standard could increase gas pump prices up to 65 cents a gallon. Environmentalists have also had their own complaints, saying that the LCFS program stimulating the production of biofuels, which come from sources including plants and animal waste; environmentalists say the state should focus more on supporting power for electric vehicles.

Data Analytics: Chinese electric vehicle makers have been the clear winners in global EV sales this year through September, with BYD surging ahead of Tesla.
Here’s the top five in sales units for the first nine months of 2024:
BYD 399,442
Tesla 191,430
Wuling 68,605
Li Auto 55,602
Geely 53,358

Sources: CleanTechnica and EV Volumes

Company News: Tesla, Inc. has become a $1 trillion dollar company on the stock market. With shares going well over $320 a share since the election last week, the company’s market valuation soared past $1 trillion for the first time since October 2021. It was a nearly 30% increase in share prices. Analysts say that CEO Elon Musk’s visible support for election winner Donald Trump propelled that along. Musk is hoping to be appointed by Trump to lead a Department of Government Efficiency committee that he says could pave the path for federalized autonomous vehicle standards. Musk put down at least $130 million in campaign contributions to place himself in an ideal position to craft federal rules that could support his autonomous vehicle strategic planning.

Phoenix-based Nikola is one of the few hydrogen fuel cell truck makers to reach serial production in North America — after a number of tumultuous years. CEO Steve Girsky wants to see competition to make commercial fuel cell trucks a viable option to hit zero emission vehicle targets. So far, it’s been mainly about Nikola in this space, but that will be changing. Daimler Truck says that it will start series production of hydrogen-powered vehicles at the end of this decade.

Resources: International Energy Agency’s Energy Technology Perspectives 2024 (ETP-2024) provides a forecast and outlook for the top six mass-manufactured clean energy technologies: solar PV, wind turbines, electric cars, batteries, electrolysers and heat pumps. The agency see the market for these technologies rising from $700 billion in 2023 to more than $2 trillion by 2035 – close to the value of the world’s crude oil market in recent years. Trade in clean technologies is also expected to rise sharply. In the past decade, it’s gone up to $575 billion, more than 50% larger than the global trade in natural gas today.

California Air Resources Board will conduct a public meeting Nov. 21 to consider approval of the fiscal year or FY 2024-25 proposed funding plan for clean transportation incentives or funding plan. This public meeting may continue at 9 a.m., on Nov. 22. You can find the public meeting notice here: https://tinyurl.com/public-Meeting-Notice

Hydrogen hub partnership: The hydrogen fueling industry and truck makers are working to develop a hydrogen refueling infrastructure that can support cost-effective, environmentally viable fleet operations. A U.S. Dept. of Energy (DOE) program called Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs, created through a bipartisan infrastructure law, can provide up to $7 billion to form what the DOE calls “the foundation of a national clean hydrogen network” and help decarbonize sectors of the economy including heavy-duty transportation. The hubs are, by region or state: Appalachia, California, Gulf Coast, Heartland, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest and Pacific Northwest. Each hub, consisting of private and public partnerships, applies to and negotiates with the DOE for funding of specific projects.

While 2021 and 2022 were hit by supply-chain disruptions, S&P Global Mobility sees the U.S.’s medium and heavy commercial vehicle sector poised for recovery and growth in 2024 and 2025. Last year was transitional, with that market seeing 14% growth for a total of 1.6 million commercial vehicles registered in 2023. It reached pre-pandemic levels with 2023 being just 196,000 units shy of 2019 registrations. Much of that came from resurgence in the rental and leasing industry in 2023. Class 2 vehicles saw a 21% increase in registrations coming from continued growth in construction and last-mile delivery vehicles, with increases in pickup and cargo van registrations.

Alternative fuel vehicles, and electric and hybrid powertrains are seeing more fleet interest in light-duty commercial vehicles, and compressed natural gas (CNG) and electric are becoming more popular alternative options for heavy-duty commercial vehicles, says S&P Global Mobility. Fleets such as Amazon, Walmart, Penske, and FedEx, are bringing in electric cargo vans for last-mile delivery applications. There were more than 14,000 EV cargo vans registered in 2023, with much growth coming from Rivian. Hybrid pickup trucks have become a viable alternative to EV pickups for fleets due to price and availability. Construction fleets are appreciating the Ford Maverick hybrid. Electric pickup launches expected from Chevrolet and Ram should contribute to the EV and electrified vehicle sales boom, the consulting firm says.

Compressed natural gas (CNG) and electric powertrains in heavy-duty vehicles (GVW 6-8) accounted for 6,800 registrations in 2023. CNG is becoming a popular option for the sanitation and refuse industry, with offerings from Peterbilt, Autocar, and Mack. General freight short-haul tractor trucks have been the primary adopters of EV for heavy-duty with launches from Freightliner, Volvo, BYD, Orange EV, and Nikola leading the way.

Renewable natural gas (RNG) heavy-duty trucks are reaching diesel-like performance for many fleets, according to a September report from FreightWaves. Rulemaking this year by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on Phase 3 emissions mandates stronger standards in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Part of the Phase 3 final rulemaking requires a greater total percentage of certain fleet segments to be made up of zero-emissions vehicles. Trucks equipped with the Cummins’ X15N engine are set to meet stringent EPA and California Air Resources Board (CARB) regulations for model years 2024 and 2027, according to FreightWaves.

Largest landfill-gas-to-RNG plant: Republic Services and Ameresco unveiled the opening of California’s largest landfill-gas-to-RNG plant at the Keller Canyon Landfill in Pittsburg, Calif., on Oct. 2. The renewable natural gas (RNG) plant builds on the companies’ existing partnership at the site. The site will provide power to the RNG refining plant, which can process up to 4,500 standard cubic feet per minute. It will feed the gas into Pacific Gas & Electric Co.’s natural gas grid. Ameresco began treating biogas at wastewater treatment plants in 2008 before expanding both the feedstocks the company will process and the products it can produce, including RNG. Today, more than 90% of the facilities it processes gas from are landfills. 

CARB wants input on EV window sticker: The California Air Resources Board (CARB) wants input on a new California Vehicle Window Sticker. Survey participants can take this link to better refine what ends up on these window stickers — to provide even better information to future EV shoppers.

ZEV Ride & Drive: California Air Resources Board (CARB) and CALSTART are hosting a Zero-Emissions Showcase + Ride & Drive featuring medium- and heavy-duty trucks (Class 2b-8), heavy-duty off-road equipment, school and transit buses, and commercial vans. It presents an opportunity to get behind the wheel of these vehicles and learn about funding programs to help purchase zero-emissions technology. It will be held on Wed., Nov. 13, 2024, from 9:00 am to 3:00 pm PT in Pomona, Calif. Click here for more details and registration.

Nearly $45B for EV battery recycling: The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) just announced $44.8 million in funding from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) for eight projects that will lower costs of recycling electric drive vehicle batteries and electric drive vehicle battery components, with the long-term aim of lowering vehicle costs. The demand for EVs and stationary storage is projected to increase the size of the lithium battery market five-to ten-fold by the end of the decade, making U.S investments to accelerate the development of a resilient domestic supply chain for high-capacity batteries essential.

Tesla wins patent: Tesla was just awarded a patent for creating a system and method for adapting a neural network model on a hardware platform. From the patent application that was filed in March 2023, it says that the method includes obtaining neural network model information comprising decision points associated with a neural network, with one or more first decision points being associated with a layout of the neural network. It was also noted that machine learning applications may often be desirable to implement and/or configure neural networks on previously unimplemented platforms. Patent research firm SETI Park speculated on social media site X that the patent could be related to implementing FSD (full self-driving) on other brands. The automaker has not yet released any specific information on licensing its FSD technology.

CARB hearing coming up for LCFS revisions: Californians are facing a big challenge coming up right after the election. What will come of the California Air Resources Board public hearing on Nov. 8 on its plan to amend the Low Carbon Fuel Standard? It’s guided by a state program that gets progressively cleaner, at a time when concerns have been raised about it pushing gasoline prices even higher. Republican members of the legislature want to see the meeting delayed to avoid rising gas prices. About 100 members of the public have submitted comments protesting these amendments going through and the potential for gas and diesel prices going up even more. There’s debate floating around about seeking an accurate forecast on where fuel prices would be under stricter LCFS standards; and there’s been review of whether bringing in more biofuels will be the needed solution.

The LCFS’s credit trading system has produced about $2 billion since it was implemented in 2011, which has supported several clean transportation vehicle and infrastructure acquisitions for fleets operating in the state. Much of the agency’s actions so far have focused on highly technical disputes between oil companies, dairy farms, biofuel producers and other lower-carbon fuel companies. There’s also been challenges set by environmental justice advocates who say the program maintains polluting industries.

Global EV sales: Global sales of battery electric, and plug-in hybrid, electric vehicles increased by 30.5% in September, a year-over-year gain, according to Reuters. The U.S. has been seeing slow and steady growth; the surge come from China surpassing sales records since August and Europe going back to seeing growth, as reported Reuters by market research firm Rho Motion. The uncertainty of the U.S. elections seems to be affecting U.S. sales, data manager Charles Lester told Reuters.

California ports win big grants: Yesterday, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announced seven California ports are receiving more than $1 billion in grants to build zero-emission infrastructure and implement plans to clean up air quality, according to the office of Governor Gavin Newsom. The Port of Los Angeles is getting $411.69 million, helping the port move forward on zero-emission (ZE) operations. That will come through significantly reducing air pollution in and around the port, deploying ZE cargo handling equipment (CHE), and enhancing electric vehicle charging infrastructure. It’s the largest largest clean ports grant from the EPA. The Port of Oakland will be receiving $322.17 million. Its project will support transitioning over to ZE alternatives for drayage trucks and cargo handling equipment.  

In related news, the U.S. Department of Energy yesterday announced the granting of $18.6 million for 15 projects that will drive innovation in equitable clean transportation and provide first responders with the tools they need to properly respond to calls involving zero emission vehicles. The largest grant was for $2.5 million to the National Association of State Energy Officials based in Arlington, VA. Its objective is to build a safe and resilient clean transportation sector that is supporting states and communities with training on zero emission vehicle technologies for emergency responders.

Fleet EVs — Myths vs. Facts: Take a look at ACT News for a detailed look at the misinformation that can be typical for fleets when considering bringing electric trucks into operation. The speed of battery charging is a deciding factor for making that acquisition of EVs and infrastructure, with faster always being better. How could you balance Level 2, more affordable charging units, with how your fleet typically runs? Correctly sizing that architecture will be an important element of making the right decisions for your fleet.

Tesla performance, plus Elon Musk on what AI looks like: Tesla stock performance jumped and stayed up last week with announcement of its third quarter performance. Revenue increased 8% in the quarter from $23.35 billion a year earlier. Net income rose to about $2.17 billion, or 62 cents a share, from $1.85 billion, or 53 cents a share, a year ago, the company reported.

While it’s still confusing for many of us why Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk would have invested $44B in Twitter/X, it is a good idea to follow what else he’s been investing in and working on — and what he thinks about the future of technology……
“I think by 2040, there will probably be more humanoid robots than there are people,” Musk said Tuesday during an appearance at the Future Investment Initiative, an event run by the institute of the same name as reported by Quartz.

As for how to get there through AI, Musk-led company xAI is now in talks raise a new funding round to get it valued at $40 billion. Discussions are still in the early states, the Wall Street Journal says. During the conference, Musk said that that he plans to double the size of xAI, but did not give additional details on how he would do so.

ID. Buzz recognized: Volkswagen of America just announced that its all-new ID. Buzz has been named to TIME’s 2024 list of the Best Inventions, which features 200 extraordinary innovations changing our lives. TIME editors solicited nominations to its online application process focused on growing fields such as healthcare, AI, and green energy.

RNG plant opening: Vanguard Renewables, a portfolio company of Global Infrastructure Partners, a part of BlackRock, a week ago held a ceremony for its newest renewable natural gas project at The Moyer Family’s Oakmulgee Dairy Farm in Amelia Court House, Va. The farm, owned by Larkin Moyer, a fourth-generation dairyman, along with his sons Brandon and Jeremy and is the oldest continuously operating family dairy in the Commonwealth, according to Vanguard Renewables. The BlackRock division is expanding across the U.S. and currently has seven operational facilities, three under construction, and plans to begin construction on multiple additional sites by the end of the year.

Polestar hurt by China ban: Polestar said on Monday that a proposed Biden administration rule to bar the use of Chinese vehicle hardware and software would “effectively prohibit” the automaker from selling vehicles in the U.S. including cars made in the U.S. The Swedish automaker, a brand of Volvo Cars that is majority-owned by China’s Geely, filed these comments with the Commerce Department that the proposed rule would bar the sale of vehicles that Polestar is building in South Carolina as well as those produced in China.

Hydrogen fuel cells market forecast: The hydrogen fuel cells market was valued at $5 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $34.65 billion by 2032, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.0% from 2024 to 2032. That report comes from SNS Insider, a global market research and consulting firm. Ever-increasing environmental concerns and clean energy adoption should trigger growth, the study says. The growth is driven by technological and infrastructure developments that make it possible to be used on a large scale in transportation, utility and portable power applications, the study says.

How come Tesla isn’t rolling out Cybercabs in San Francisco, Los Angeles, or Phoenix as an autonomous robotaxi service?

Is getting sued over alleged artificial intelligence-fueled copyright infringement of images from the film ‘Blade Runner 2049’ enough to stop Tesla from competing in the burgeoning robotaxi market? Probably not. That company had moved away from its long-promised entry into the robotaxi space a few months ago — which has become more obvious since the Cybercab launch event.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk, the Tesla corporation, and Warner Brothers Discovery were sued by Alcon Entertainment because the sued parties had asked for permission to use an image from the film for the Oct. 10 event launching the Cybercab at Warner Brothers Discovery’s studio lot in Burbank, California. That request was denied by Alcon. That went awry when, during the Cybercab event, an edited version of a scene from the film was shown on a presentation slide on a live stream for 11 seconds as Musk spoke.

Back in July prior to the first scheduled Cybercab media event (that got moved to Oct. 10), CEO Elon Musk kept talking about his company launching its long-awaited robotaxi service next year. That didn’t come up at the long-awaited media event on Oct. 10 at the Warner Bros. Studios in Burbank, Calif.

The audience heard all about CyberCabs having a pricetag less than $30,000 and that it will come out before 2027; and about a ‘Robovan’ that can carry up to 20 people and that will follow the CyberCab. The company also said autonomous driving will be added to its Model 3 and Model Y cars in California and Texas by next year. Attendees at the ‘We, Robot’ event also got to hear about the Optimus robot that’s still in development, and that could be available for $20,000–$30,000 and is capable of performing various tasks.

As for robotaxis in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Phoenix, it looks like Alphabet’s Waymo company is taking the lead there. All-electric Jaguar I-PACEs is the fleet vehicle for Waymo One in these cities.

General Motor’s Cruise division has temporarily paused autonomous vehicle service in all markets while the company evaluates how to best serve its riders and the communities where they operate. In October 2023, the California Department of Motor Vehicles on Tuesday shut down its operations, describing it as an “unreasonable risk to the public” and that the company misrepresented how safe they are — after a series bad incidents in the city.

Amazon-owned Zoox held an open house in Foster City, Calif., last month to showcase its boxy-shaped autonomous vehicle. Seats face inward, as if you were riding in a carriage with doors that open on both sides. It could be more like a trolley ride than just getting space for one-or-two riders.

The startup says it will be launching autonomous rides in San Francisco in the near future; and the company has put in more than 700,000 autonomous testing miles in California and Nevada. The vehicle can go as fast as 45 mph, and it has no steering wheel and can drive in either direction. Zoox hasn’t said when it expects to rise to commercial levels with its robotaxi fleet.

There’s expectation that Uber and Lyft will play a vital role in robotaxis being rolled out to riders. Waymo recently announced that it was expanding its partnership with Uber to offer robot taxi rides in Austin, Texas, and Atlanta by 2025.

One major hurdle has been safety. The Uber test driver behind the wheel of one of the company’s self-driving cars when it hit and killed a pedestrian in 2018, got sentenced pleaded guilty to endangerment and was sentenced to three years of supervised probation last year. In April, a self-driving Tesla carrying a passenger for Uber rammed into an SUV in Las Vegas. No one was hurt seriously from the collision in a suburban neighborhood, but it raised concerns again about whether robotaxis and other autonomous vehicles are ready yet to go beyond test runs and limited rides in a small number of markets.

How EVs are doing in Europe: European Alternative Fuels Observatory (EAFO) just released it Europe market report on the EU-27 alternative fuel vehicle market. In August, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) reached a 14.48% market share in the passenger car segment, the highest in 2024 so far. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) also maintained a notable market presence with a 7.18% market share. The European market is now seeing nearly 800,000 chargers. As of September EAFO reports that it breaks out into 673,455 AC regular chargers and 118,844 DC fast chargers. That means AC is regular charging and DC is fast charging.

On Oct. 4, EU member states voted in favor of giving the European Commission the green light to put in place definitive tariffs on BEV imports from China. That can go up 35.3% placed on top of the already existing 10% tariff that had already been placed on Chinese imports to the EU. That will come into effect on Nov. 1 for a period of five years.

Funding ZEV drayage trucks: Since November 2023, the Port of Los Angeles (POLA) and the Port of Long Beach (POLB) have partnered with the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to rapidly increase deployments of zero-emission drayage trucks. California’s Hybrid and Zero-Emission Truck and Bus Voucher Incentive Project (HVIP) has funded nearly 800 drayage trucks through this state program. An initial $60 million in HVIP-stacked incentives have been fully subscribed; HVIP funds are still available, and additional Port funds may be announced later this year.​​ For ongoing updates about available HVIP drayage funds and other types of HVIP incentives, visit californiahvip.org/funding.

Robotaxi launch: Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk will be revealing the Cybercab, its robotaxi, at Warner Bros. Hollywood Studio this evening. This has been years in the making, and many questions are expected to be asked. Musk hopes that the event will help keep Tesla’s stock at a higher level. The company will discuss the autonomous Tesla ride-hailing platform. Tesla is sticking with its plan to encourage owners to to make income by purchasing more then Cybercab and to place them on a ride-hailing network of robotaxis. Teslerati thinks the the EV maker will do more than just reveal the Cybercab tonight. It might include a $25,000 mass-market EV, a Robovan, and even the Roadster, according to the rumor mill. Tesla has said that the Cybercab and the $25,000 electric car will be built on the same platform, according to The Tesla Space.

GM’s LFP cells: General Motors on Tuesday said it plans to use cost-cutting lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery cells for future EV models. GM executives had said at an investor conference that LFP cells would combine with other changes to packaging and manufacturing to cut $6,000 from the cost of making EVs, compared to current models. The new Chevy Bolt EV is expected to arrive in 2025 as a 2026 model, although it’s unclear if the LFP-powered version will be available at launch.

Separately, GM President Mark Reuss said the next-gen 2026 Bolt EV will be priced ‘only slightly higher than the 2023 Bolt,’ which started at $27,495 with shipping, and it will be part of a ‘vehicle family.’

SEMA and NTEA oppose CARB rules: The Specialty Equipment Market Association (SEMA) and NTEA – The Work Truck Association filed suit in the US District Court’s Eastern District of California against the California Air Resources Board (CARB), seeking immediate declaratory and injunctive relief to stop electric vehicle mandates CARB intends to implement through its Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF) regulations. The two organizations say it far exceeds the state’s constitutional and state authority, and it will have a dire effect on an industry that has historically made major moves to bring newer, cleaner versions of trucks and other commercial vehicles to market.

Lessons learned at IAA: NACFE says that IAA 2024 in Hannover, Germany, was quite an interesting show. On the exhibit floor were a variety of alternative-fueled vehicles from a host of countries, including China, Italy, Germany, The Netherlands, and more. Several countries are working on decarbonizing their transportation industries. Though the technology and regulations may differ, NACFE found it valuable to learn more about what’s going on in that area.

DTNA working with J.B. Hunt: Daimler Truck North America is integrating a battery electric Freightliner eCascadia into its aftermarket operations with long-time associate J.B. Hunt Transport Inc. It will be part of J.B. Hunt’s fleet and deliver aftermarket parts from DTNA’s parts distribution center (PDC) in Phoenix to multiple dealers along a dedicated route, covering approximately 100 miles daily. DTNA says its first all-electric route in the DTNA aftermarket parts distribution network; and it fits well in its targets for reducing carbon emissions and setting a precedent for sustainable outbound logistics operations.

248 DC fast chargers: ChargePoint has received awards through its partners of more than $19 million to deploy 248 DC fast-charging ports at 45 sites along California highways. The awards were approved recently by the California Energy Commission (CEC) and California Department of Transportation as part of the state’s first tranche of National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) program funds.

Understanding battery cells: Here’s an Intertek resource on understanding battery cell design, manufacturing quality, and degradation. Check out the Top-12 FAQ sheet on Battery Cell Teardown (also known as Battery Cell Autopsy or Disassembly). It’s a way to help identify manufacturing defects, assess material composition, and uncover aging and degradation mechanisms, Intertek says.

Nuclear energy for data centers: While nuclear power as a clean energy source continues to lack support from certain stakeholders, it’s being taken very seriously by some major players. Amazon and Microsoft each inked major deals this year with nuclear power plants in the U.S. to power their energy-intensive data centers. It has something to do with new AI data centers that need a lot of energy to run.

Mobility market growth: The shared mobility service market, which was valued at $380.2 billion in 2023, its expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 15.6% during 2025-2030, according to a ResearchAndMarkets.com study. That’s expected to come from technological advancements, urbanization, and changing consumer preferences. Choices are expanding too for ride-sharing, car-sharing, bike-sharing, and scooter-sharing. Companies profiled in the study include Car2Go, Didi Chuxing, Grab, Lyft, Docomo Bike Share, Meitetsu Kyosho, Orix, Ola, BlaBlaCar, and Uber.

CA bill on renewable hydrogen: Governor Gavin Newsom signed SB 1420 (Anna Caballero, D-Merced), a California Renewable Transportation Alliance-supported measure to streamline permitting for renewable hydrogen production facilities. It facilitates centralized permitting and expedited review under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA).

Confessions of a Numbers Nerd: As mentioned in the last issue, I’ve started a Substack column tied into my new book, which has been published. It goes back to how I got into data analytics as an editor covering fleet management, car rental, and used vehicle market trends. More recently, it might be about looking at how it’s going between Tesla and BYD for global market leadership.

Chinese car shoppers are able to get through a core marketing challenge when considering buying an electric vehicle: price. Consumers can buy the BYD Qin midsize car for 130,000 yuan ($18,000). The cheapest EV in the U.S. is around $29,000. 

Chinese automakers, and its national government, have been able to sell the Qin and other EVs at low prices with some of them listed under the $10,000 price mark. This is happening for four reasons: intense domestic competition, subsidies, a low-paid labor force, and a comprehensive supply chain.

“[The BYD Qin’s] standard range on one charge is supposed to be 280 miles, but I can get only 255 to 260 miles, and only if I don’t turn on the air conditioning,” owner Zhang Fenglian said to Marketplace. “Of course, if you care about appearances, you wouldn’t use this car to pick up important clients or a big boss because the car looks cheap, but this car can fit five passengers comfortably. Plus, the trunk is big.”

On the competition side, there are over 100 EV brands operating in the market. Five EV brands including BYD and Tesla account for 60% of the market, according to the Shanghai-based strategy and investment firm, Automobility. Some of these automakers in the group of 100+ EV brands are struggling to be profitable in China, and are working hard to go to global markets.

Chinese EVs are essentially shut out of the U.S. and Canada markets due to punitive tariffs of 100%. The European Union is looking at adding extra tariffs but at a much
lower rate.

Low-paid workers face the challenges of Chinese workers in other sectors. They may have had to move across the country to take the job, leaving families and hometowns behind. They might have shown up for work with a suitcase and a bed in the company’s dorm. One of these BYD factory workers might be making about 7,000 yuan ($990) a month. If they’re living in a lower-cost city like Changsha, it can be a decent salary. But that might also require working a lot of overtime to reach that livable wage.

And in other news…………

My Substack column and book: I’ve enjoyed finishing a book that will come out soon, and tying it into a new column I’m writing and posting on Substack. This American online platform provides a publishing infrastructure to support subscription newsletters. One of the more appealing qualities for writers, journalists, and commentators is its expanding presence — and that a lot of public figures with notoriety are also publishing on Substack. You will certainly see a lot of content from other writers on the presidential election, AI, the wars, and climate change disasters. But it is up to the writer, and for me, it can be focus on some of my own personal story along with a broader theme tied to the challenges and opportunities of being alive. The book, Discovery: How my life finally made sense to me, looks at the seven near-death and close-call dramatic experiences I’ve lived through, and other life challenges. It explores what I’ve gained from all of it, and that it has been far from easy. You can see some of that in Substack, where a commentary such as ‘Late Diagnosis and Misdiagnosis: Don’t Let it Happen to You!’ delves into problems of going through the U.S. healthcare system, especially when you’ve been misdiagnosed at first.

E-fuel continues growing in use: Synthetic fuels, commonly referred to as e-fuel, comes from converting electricity generated from renewable sources into hydrogen via electrolysis. The hydrogen is then combined with carbon dioxide (CO2) captured from the atmosphere to create a liquid fuel. E-fuels have the potential to play a significant role in achieving sustainability targets, particularly in regions like the EU and the UK, where they are seen as a means to hit emissions targets and where e-fuel consumption is increasing, according to Gary Perman, PermanTech Search Group in LinkedIn. In the U.S., several companies are already developing e-fuel and integrating into commercial fleets. Infinium, the world’s first producer of commercially available ultra-low carbon e-fuels, and Brookfield Asset Management, recently announced a strategic funding partnership to accelerate the growth of Infinium’s eFuels platform. The company that its eFuels — which includes eSAF, a next generation sustainable aviation fuel — can reduce lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 90% or more compared to today’s conventional fuels.

Fleet EV adoption lagging: Corporate fleets in the European Union are going through a similar challenge as their professional peers in North America. A report from Dataforce, released by Transport & Environment (T&E), shows that companies in the EU are falling behind private households in adopting electric vehicles (EVs). Despite the corporate sector registering 60% of all new cars in Europe, the rate of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) adoption remains slower than among private buyers, according to the report.

On the positive side, Cox Automotive released a study in July stating that fleet owners in the U.S. like what their seeing in data analytics comparing EVs to internal combustion engine vehicles. Despite higher acquisition costs for bringing in EVs, the lesser requirements for service and maintenance than for ICEs, is making them more appealing to fleets in the U.S.