Month: December 2024

Biofuels and bioenergy have been going through a constructive transformation in recent years similar to other clean fuels and energy. Like hydrogen, the source of the biofuels and energy is diversifying as is end-user applications. Production capacity has been increasing.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently reported that the capacity to produce biofuels increased 7% in the United States during 2023, reaching 24 billion gallons per year at the start of 2024, led by a 44% increase in renewable diesel and other biofuels. The other biofuels includes renewable heating oil, renewable jet fuel (also known as sustainable aviation fuel), and renewable naphtha and gasoline. With continuing state and federal tax incentives, and regulatory policies, plant expansions, and projected new plant construction, EIA expects U.S. biofuels production capacity to continue increasing.

Ethanol that gets blended into gasoline at 10-to-15 percent is still dominated by corn, with the U.S. Dept. of Energy reporting that 94% is produced from the starch in corn grain. Cellulosic ethanol, which comes from either waste, coproduces of another industry (wood, crop residues) or dedicated crops such as switchgrass, is seeing an increase in consumption as ethanol-blended fuel use increases around the world.

The number of fuel stations in the U.S. offering E-15 was 4,495 in 2023, up from 2,839 in 2014, according to USDA Economic Research Service – U.S. Bioenergy Statistics. Biodiesel at fuel stations increased from 782 stations in 2014 to 1,700 in 2023.

As you can see from these two tables created by the USDA Economic Research Service, ethanol used in fuel and renewable diesel have been seeing increases in production and consumption over the past decade. Renewable diesel has seen dramatic gains, similar to renewable natural gas, as the the supply and consumption continue to grow, backed by government mandates and technology improvements in the production and distribution channels.

Here are a few other news developments in this sector:

• The U.S. Department of Energy’s Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) announced their intent to issue funding to support high-impact research and development (R&D) projects in two priority areas: sustainable propane and renewable chemicals and algal system cultivation and preprocessing. The intended Sustainable Propane and Renewable Chemicals (SPARC) funding opportunity would support R&D of domestic chemicals and fuels from biomass and waste resources to help secure domestic supply chains, support the growth of rural economies, and grow the nation’s competitiveness in the biotechnology and biomanufacturing industry. It could include up to $23 million in federal funding.
• The intended Maximizing Algal System Yield (MASY) funding opportunity would support applied algal system R&D to improve the affordable production of biofuels and bioproducts. While algal systems can be highly productive, there are technical barriers that limit the expansion of algae as a domestic bioenergy feedstock. The MASY funding opportunity will address these challenges by focusing on algal system cultivation and preprocessing R&D to advance affordable and reliable development of innovative algae technologies that can support algae developers bring these new bioproducts to market. The potential MASY NOFO could include up to $10 million in federal funding and is expected to be released in January 2025.
• Renewable natural gas (RNG) could scale up sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by utilizing established gas-to-liquid (GTL) technologies, according to Biofuels Digest. These technologies could include SynCOR autothermal reforming and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) synthesis. This approach combines proven processes with innovative adaptations, creating a high-carbon-efficiency pathway for SAF production. It could also mean another significant market for RNG to serve with new mandates globally driving adoption of SAF.
• Gevo, a Colorado-based renewable chemicals and advanced biofuels company, has worked with LG Chem to extend their joint development agreement. The agreement extension enables LG Chem to assess existing assets for deploying Gevo’s Ethanol-to-Olefins (ETO) technology while accelerating commercialization activities, considering project scale and end-product markets. Gevo’s patented ETO technology can target carbon-neutral or carbon-negative drop-in replacements for traditional petroleum-based building blocks. These are core olefins, that can be used for renewable fuels and chemicals, including sustainable aviation fuel and bio-propylene. ETO technology is just one of multiple patented technologies that Gevo is bringing to bear on the challenges of developing cost-effective bio-based renewable fuels and chemicals.
• A marine research engine at the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Oak Ridge National Laboratory is providing scientists with valuable insights into biofuel design for large ocean-going vessels (OGVs) in a multi-lab project focused on reducing total life-cycle carbon emissions from this vital transportation sector. Scientists at DOE’s national laboratories knew their work on biofuels for marine use would be needed to meet the revised target. Their efforts are concentrated on large OGVs like cargo and container ships, which account for more than 80% of all transported goods and 3% of global GHG emissions. 
• Major oil and gas companies have ramped up investments in the biofuels sector, betting on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), with 43 projects expected to be up and running by 2030, consultancy Rystad said in a report. The energy research firm indicates that investments by industry giants such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, Shell, TotalEnergies, and Eni could add 286,000 barrels per day (bpd) of production capacity.

California ZEV law under scrutiny: On Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court announced that it will review whether the oil industry has the standing to challenge the existence of California’s zero emission vehicle standards, which are stricter than the federal fuel economy and greenhouse gas emissions rules. The case filed by oil companies, other fuel producers and 17 other states, argued that the federal government exceeded its authority under the Clean Air Act when it granted California a waiver to set its own tougher auto emissions standards. The justices rejected the fuel industry’s request to consider whether it was unlawful for the Biden administration to grant California the federal waiver. The Supreme Court will be examine whether the fuel companies that appealed a lower court ruling have the standing to sue.
This case will be considered as the Trump team plans to cut electric vehicle tax credits, roll back emissions standards, and limit funding for EV charging deployment; and as the Biden administration may soon allow California and at least 11 other states to set new emissions standards that would allow for the sale of primarily EVs by 2035, according to reports.

CA approves $1.4B for charging and fueling: The California Energy Commission (CEC) on Dec. 11 approved a $1.4 billion investment plan that accelerates progress on the state’s electric vehicle (EV) charging and hydrogen refueling goals. These investments will help deploy infrastructure for light, medium, and heavy-duty zero-emission vehicles (ZEV) across California, expanding the most extensive charging and hydrogen refueling network in the country. The plan details how the CEC’s Clean Transportation Program will spend $1.4 billion in state funding over the next four years, with at least 50 percent targeted to benefit priority populations. The funding is part of the $48 billion California Climate Commitment, which includes more than $10 billion for ZEVs and ZEV infrastructure. It ties into the state also receiving billions from the Biden-Harris Administration for clean transportation.
 
AirNow mobile app update: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has updated the AirNow mobile app to allow users to receive optional push notifications of their local Air Quality Index forecasts for the next day. State and local air agencies issue AQI forecasts as a public service to help people plan their outdoor activities. The agencies provide them to EPA, which shares them on the AirNow app and Airnow.gov website. Until now, AirNow users had to remember to check the app or website to see their forecasts; with the updates to the AirNow mobile app, people can opt to be notified when the daily forecast reaches an AQI category of their choosing. You can find more information on AirNow with links to Apple and Android apps at this link.

Volvo and DHL partnering on AVs: Volvo Autonomous Solutions (V.A.S.) and DHL Supply Chain recently announced their first step in performing autonomous freight operations in the U.S., utilizing a purpose-built, production-ready Volvo VNL Autonomous powered by the Aurora Driver. Drivers will be onboard during an initial phase to monitor performance and integration into the logistics networks. “Early adopters play a pivotal role in accelerating the deployment and acceptance of autonomous technology, enabling us to validate both safety and operational performance,” said Sasko Cuklev, head of On-Road Solutions at Volvo Autonomous Solutions. “Our collaboration with DHL Supply Chain exemplifies the potential of autonomy as a complementary mode of transport that increases freight capacity and optimizes supply chain efficiencies.”

NVIDIA is one of those companies that can stay in stealth mode — you’ll forget about it until you see another strategic alliance or the fact that it’s market cap places it at No. 1 or No. 2 in the world. It’s role and presence is so pervasive in different sectors that the company can be taken for granted. It’s become a major player in artificial intelligence computing, which will be essential to electrified autonomous vehicles being accurately integrated into vehicle-to-everything (V2X) technology; and gaming chips is another large part of its business during a time when gaming continues to bring in even more revenue than movies for entertainment companies.

It’s become visible enough for China to use it as a reaction to Washington for setting more control over the Chinese chip sector. The Chinese agency that charged the violations didn’t elaborate on how NIVIDIA actually violated China’s anti-monopoly laws, according to published reports. Last week, the U.S. caused the flare up by launching its third crackdown in three years on China’s semiconductor industry.

On the topic of V2X technology, vehicles in the near future will have to share real-time information with everything from other cars to pedestrians and traffic lights. That’s still being worked out by regulators, but NVIDIA is expected to be one of the main companies creating the pathway for autonomous vehicles to reach mass market.

The Santa Clara, Calif.-based company designs and supplies graphics processing units (GPUs), application programming interfaces (APIs) for data science and high-performance computing. It also produces a system on a chip units (SoCs) for mobile computing and the automotive market.

As of Monday at 9:30 am pacific time, it came in at No. 2 behind Apple’s $3.73 trillion in market cap; with NVIDIA trading at $3.39 trillion. It had been No. 1 for several months. Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet (Google) came in next on the ranking.

The tech giant says that more than 40,000 companies use NVIDIA AI technologies, and more than 4 million developers now create create thousand of applications for accelerated computing.

Chipmakers have been eyeing NVIDIA as the ‘one to beat.’ Automakers and their dealer networks create virtual showrooms and car configurators, develop in-vehicle AI assistants, and validate autonomous driving technology — all with NVIDIA AI, Omniverse, and accelerated computing platforms.

One of the most interesting parts of the company’s story is that it’s had the same CEO, Jensen Huang, since its inception in 1993. He’s considered to be a persuasive, hard-working leader to work for, and is one of the very few corporate lone founders to still be running the show.

Lucid Gravity coming up: Lucid has started production at its Casa Grande, Arizona factory of its second offering, the Gravity all-electric SUV. The three-row Gravity will begin sales with the Grand Touring version, and it will start at $96,550. More affordable versions are expected to roll out but not until late 2025, and it’s unclear when exactly deliveries will begin. The Air sedan has a $70,000 starting price, and its getting strong ratings from reviewers.

EVPKI simplifying charging: SAE Industry Technologies Consortia is working with the U.S.’s Joint Office of Energy and Transportation to create a framework that will enable secure automatic authentication as soon as drivers plug in – a capability known as “Plug & Charge.” That will simplify the charging process so that electric vehicles can go to any public charging station and automatically start charging, with no payment processing step required. It’s taken shape through SAE’s Electric Vehicle Public Key Infrastructure (EVPKI) Consortium. The SAE EVPKI Certificate Trust List Requirements (CTL) is the basis for onboarding industry PKI suppliers to the new framework. It will mean faster, automated charging and improved cybersecurity protocols. The consortia is made up of automakers, charging networks, technology suppliers, DOE and DOT, and SAE.

Nex-gen Honda is promising: Honda is committed to making solid-state batteries the leading technology for bringing electric vehicles to a new level — up to 620 miles per charge. Honda says that it’s upcoming solid-state batteries will be 50% smaller, 35% lighter, and 25% cheaper to manufacture than current liquid-based lithium-ion cells. The solid electrolyte cells could also be much safer than what is readily available on the market today, and it can accept much higher charging speeds. The Japanese automaker says it will be available by the end of this decade — and a version that goes 776 miles will come out sometime around 2040.

AI and investigative reporting: Journalists are gaining access to artificial intelligence resources that are available now — some of it free, and some of it for a fee, such as ChatGPT’s GPTs. Luiz Fernando Toledo, a Brazilian investigative journalist well known on CNN and several other media outlets, offers several signs of hope about media professionals using these new resources. He and his work colleagues have had success with a few free offerings in the AI space, too. This is from my Substack ‘Discovery’ column, and offers a look at the role AI can play in a sector that’s been hard hit by economic and technological changes for those working in the field.

What would happen if the Trump administration puts a stop to electric vehicle tax credits next year? It will probably be a bumpy year, with the market counting on a few states to offer good incentives.

Don’t get your hopes up too high, says Jay Turner, an environmental studies professor at Wellesley College who studies the market. Californians will be happy to see Gov. Gavin Newsom’s recent announcement that the state will work hard at filling the gap if the feds cut their tax incentive.

What about other states? Colorado and Massachusetts already offer substantial support that EV buyers can combine with those on offer from the federal government, Turner said. But the gains made through the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 will likely dry up as the Republican-led House and Senate come together in January.

Will Trump’s newfound friend and ally, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, tap into their relationship when it comes to EV sales? Tesla long ago went over the line on the cap of EVs sold getting access to the federal tax credit. That changed at the beginning of 2023 with the Inflation Reduction Act changing the rules — with some of the Tesla models qualifying depending on specifications for each tax payer. The KBB chart above provides some of those details. As for Tesla vehicles under the newer guidelines and whether you qualify, that will depend on your own tax status under the Inflation Reduction Act. “Your eligibility for any tax credits depends on your personal tax situation. We recommend speaking with a tax professional for guidance,” Tesla’s website says.

How Utilities Can Thrive As EV Demand Grows: Utilities can handle more demand on their grid as electric vehicles grow in numbers and charging hours, according to a new study by AES Indiana, a utility subsidiary of global power firm AES Corp. The study analyzed AES Indiana’s service territory with different applications of how it uses data and sets its rates. Utilities will be able to save money even as EV demand grows as they prepare to charge a larger number of EVs in the coming years — even if EV adopting in their system isn’t yet a high level. EVs have large battery packs with the potential to both load and offload electricity, which will be part of solving grid problems. With growing out a grid system can be costly, building it out with realistic usage data would help solve the problem, according to the study.

What about hydrogen under Trump administration?: Like other alternative fuels, President Trump has not been supportive. As for hydrogen, “The one thing I can’t get used to is hydrogen. You know, the story with hydrogen, it’s great until it blows up,” newly reelected Trump said during a rally in October 2024, repeating a claim he has made that hydrogen vehicles run a risk of exploding. While hydrogen is seeing a growing list of users for heating, industrial machinery, and transportation, it’s likely to be affected by Trump’s rollbacks tied to the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. One of those benefits was the 45V hydrogen tax credit. One advantage it has is that many hydrogen hub projects are concentrated in Republican-held states, says Kyle Hayes, a partner of Foley & Lardner, which implies that its unlikely to be on Trump’s list of rollbacks. Hydrogen secured a lot of funding through the H2Hubs program in the federal funding. Two hydrogen hub projects in the US Midwest, and Texas, secure up to $2.2bn in federal funds.

California charging incentives: Don’t forget that you can save money with Communities in Charge electric vehicle (EV) charging incentives. Up to 100% of eligible Level 2 AC costs may be covered, says Chargepoint. The California Energy Commission’s Communities in Charge incentive is providing $30 million in EV charging station funds for qualifying sites. Funds cover up to $6,500 per Level 2 AC port or 100% of eligible costs, whichever is less.

RNG looking good: During an Oct. 29 earnings call, BP CEO Murray Auchincloss said he was still optimistic that BP subsidiary Archaea could build 15 new renewable natural gas plants in 2024, despite the company only being about halfway to that goal by the end of the third quarter. Seven plants are ‘online and operating.’ Getting up to 15 is realistic for Archaea, he said. Other companies are going forward, too. Waste Management (WM) expects to have seven RNG projects online by end of the year in its 20-project portfolio. Republic Services has finished four projects so far this year, and expects four more to be done by end of year. Smaller waste management companies are also going forward, Wastetdive reports.