When Can We Expect To See Lots of Robotaxis and Other Autonomous Vehicles On Our Roads?

Last week, honking from robotaxis nearly caused a few San Francisco residents to move to another city. That repeated disturbance might have taken place about 4:00 am, which made it particularly frustrating for those trying to sleep.

It came from a parking lot full of Waymo autonomous SUVs parked near each other for customers hailing rides from these robotaxis. Waymo stated that the honking was the result of a safety feature triggered when a Waymo car detects another vehicle reversing toward it. The software was meant to prevent slow-moving crashes.

Several people who live in buildings near the parking lot have had similar complaints, according to an ABC News Chicago affiliate station.

Waymo and Cruise were approved to operate their paid robotaxi services 24/7 in San Francisco in August 2023. That decision was made by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) in a 3-to-1 vote. Complaints and minor crashes have come up, with these permits being restricted for periods of time.

So when can we expect to see a lot of autonomous vehicles across the streets of America and other countries that are testing them out? That’s going to take at least until 2035, according to a prediction from research firm GlobalData.

“We expect the timelines for deploying fully autonomous vehicles (Level 5) to be pushed back over the next few years,” the research firm wrote in a report.

Level 5 autonomy relates to self-driving cars that do not require any human interaction – meaning that when they’re eventually deployed, they won’t have steering wheels or pedals; and what might be called fully self-driving vehicles.

Here Technologies, a Dutch company specialized in mapping technologies, location data, and related automotive services, found 2035 to be mentioned in more than one of these predictions as a realistic year to see it come together.

The Waymo One fleet consists entirely of fully electric Jaguar I-PACEs — what the company calls, “the world’s first premium electric autonomously driven vehicle.” The company is testing out Zeekr electric vans, made by a Chinese company. Cruise is using the Chevrolet Bolt, from its parent company General Motors, for its San Francisco robotaxi rides.

Waymo will this year test out colder locations, including Truckee, Calif.; Upstate New York; and Michigan, from the Upper Peninsula to the metro Detroit area. Winter road trips have been important to the company in recent years, with last year’s tests were done in Buffalo, N.Y.

Regardless of weather conditions, Waymo is testing rides outside of San Francisco and these cold locations. The company has been in limited parts of Phoenix since 2020, and is now testing its autonomous vehicles in Austin. Waymo has opened up a waitlist for access in Los Angeles.

Robotaxis are gaining ridership and support in San Francisco. For some riders, it’s better than taking an Uber or Lyft ride.

“I think the ride is great and I don’t feel unsafe or anything,” said said Nathan Herrara, a Boston resident who recently visited San Francisco.  Herrera added that he absolutely trusts robot drivers more than humans. “They’re more cautious.”

China is taking the lead on autonomous vehicle testing, with at least 16 of its cities allowing companies to test self-driving vehicles on public roads. At least 19 Chinese automakers are their suppliers are getting in on the testing, according to Carnegie Mellon University, a hub for autonomous vehicle technology development.

Chinese autonomous vehicle company WeRide has been granted permission to test in California. The California Public Utilities Commission issued two permits to WeRide. I pilot permit including a driver and one not including a driver. Both allow the company to test its vehicles on public roads while carrying passengers.

The U.S. Commerce Department is considering a ban on Chinese connected vehicles, which includes self-driving vehicles, due to national security concerns. But WeRide believes in the market potential enough to look into a nearly $5 billion valuation when going public on the U.S. stock market. The capitalization costs are quite high for bringing in all the elements that go into building and operating a safe, dependable autonomous vehicle.

WeRide is testing out autonomous SUVs, vans, street sweepers, and a ‘robobus,’ which looks like a small shuttle bus.

And in other news………..

EV charging report: The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has released a study focusing on the U.S. challenge of building a widespread and reliable electric vehicle charging infrastructure. NREL’s 2030 National Charging Network: Estimating U.S. Light-Duty Demand for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure report points to the need for a mix of publicly accessible charging stations along highways and near homes and workplaces, and private charging ports at single-family homes, apartments, and offices. “This is the fundamental challenge for the industry right now,” said Eric Wood, a senior EV charging infrastructure researcher at NREL. “Some people like to talk about alternative-fuel vehicles and their infrastructure as a chicken-and-egg problem. But I really think it’s more appropriate to think about infrastructure—specifically, charging stations—needing to lead the market. You need to have these stations be visible and available for people to feel confident in buying an electric vehicle and committing to make it their daily transportation mode of choice.”

CARB could boost LCFS: The California Air Resources Board is working on changes to the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) that could boost credit prices and support renewable natural gas (RNG) investment, with implications for landfill and anaerobic digestion projects, according to Waste Dive. It would be an increase from a proposal released earlier this year, and it comes from listening to alternative fuel producers about the impact of LCFS credit prices having fallen too low. It will go before a CARB board vote in November. If it clears, it will mean that fuel producers will see increase in low-carbon alternatives to offset their petroleum-based fuels.

Have Federal Agencies Lost Their Power to Govern Emissions?

What are the implications of the U.S. Supreme Court ruling that cancels the ‘Chevron deference’ standard? The Loper Bright Enterprises ruling this summer does have the potential to alter how environmental, energy, transportation, and other policies, will be implemented.

Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo, a June 28, 2024 ruling, is similar to Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization overturning Roe v. Wade in June 2022, the historic abortion ruling. Loper Bright transfers policymaking authority from federal agencies over to federal courts, overturning the 1984 Chevron ruling. The Supreme Court held that federal courts may not defer to an agency’s interpretation of an ambiguous statute.

Along with a companion case, Relentless, Inc. v. Department of Commerce, Loper Bright Enterprises overruled Chevron U.S.A., Inc. v. Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc. (1984). That was where the ‘Chevron deference’ standard came from; it had directed courts to defer to an agency’s reasonable interpretation of a law or policy decision that the agency enforces.

Loper Bright Enterprises is a New Jersey-based family-owned herring fishing company operating in the waters of New England. The June 2024 ruling originated from fishing companies challenging a rule established by the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) for these companies to pay for the cost of federal monitors that may be assigned to their boats, under authorization of the Magnuson–Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act. The company claimed that the Act did not allow NMFS to pass the monitors’ costs to the fishing companies, challenging the Chevron deference that was held in the NMFS’ favor during lower court hearings.

The Chevron deference became a two-part test that was deferential to government agencies: first, whether Congress has spoken directly to the precise issue at question, and second, it was based on whether the agency’s answer is based on a permissible construction of the statute.

Law firm Holland & Knight identified implications for environmental, energy, and transportation issues in how the Loper Bright Enterprises ruling could be interpreted by federal courts.

Environmental. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) may have trouble enforcing the new greenhouse gas power plant rule, which is likely to be challenged on the ground that it is unsupported by statutory authority. The Supreme Court’s ruling that greenhouse gases are air pollutants covered by the Clean Air Act would still stand, but the EPA’s attempts to consider climate impacts in rule makings covering a wide range of statutory authority may be getting a lot more scrutiny. Some environmental regulations are already facing court challenges, which should continue. The Renewable Fuel Standard has the strength of being created by statute nearly 20 years ago; however, the Supreme Court’s Loper Bright ruling could alter how the program evolves over time – such as restricting the EPA’s discretion to approve or deny participation by new types of fuels or entities.

Energy. The interpretation and implementation of various federal regulations and policies impacting oil, gas, and mineral development on federal lands and waters will likely be challenged under the new standard of judicial review of agency action. The procedures adopted by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) for environmental reviews and cost allocation for regional transmission grid expansions are likely to be taken on. The Federal Power Act, Natural Gas Act, Energy Policy Act of 2005, and the landmark National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) that was signed into law in 1969, will likely be challenged as well.

Transportation. Aviation and maritime transportation are expected to see implications before other transportation sectors. Policies governing prevention of collisions at sea would undergo scrutiny. One area that could impact ground transportation could come from what happens to the Oil Pollution Act and Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA); that could have a significant impact for recovery resulting from an oil spill. The National Transportation Safety Board’s (NTSB) investigative policies following accidents may be challenged, too, and it would affect aviation, maritime, and ground transportation.

The waste and recycling industry is also analyzing how this summer Supreme Court ruling may affect their legal and regulatory environment, especially what comes through the EPA and U.S. Department of Labor. Some analysts say it may not make an immediate impact on the waste industry. Long term, it may bring in more legal complexity when considering aspects of rules such as the EPA’s recent hazardous substance designation for certain polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) or Occupational Safety and Health Administration’s (OSHA’s) proposed heat standard, according to Wastedive.

And in other news………

Public likes EV charging: Customer satisfaction with public EV charging continues to improve, according to a new J.D. Power study. Tesla remained at the top of the J.D. Power study. Satisfaction with DC fast charging increased to 664 points on a 1,000-point scale, a 10-point increase from the same period in 2023. One area of dissatisfaction was Level 2 charging, where satisfaction dropped four points.

IRA opportunities: Companies announced at least 334 major new clean energy projects in the first two years since the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was signed into law, driving the biggest U.S. economic revolution in recent history, according to the national nonpartisan business organization E2. The 118 announcements in the IRA’s second year are expected to generate more than $40 billion in new investments and create a minimum of 34,600 jobs.