Will EVs transform the auto industry by 2030? And more on Trump administration versus California

Here’s another look at forecasts predicting 2030 will be the watershed year to watch for when vehicles, transportation, and the entire auto industry itself will look quite different than it does today. This time, we’ll look at whether plug-in vehicles are likely to overtake internal combustion engine-powered vehicles by 2030.

A new Science magazine article states that: “Electric vehicles are poised to transform nearly every aspect of transportation, including fuel, carbon emissions, costs, repairs, and driving habits.”

That will come from planned mandates coming up soon, that if enacted, include Norway wanting to have all its vehicles be battery electric or plug-in hybrid by 2025; Netherlands banning all gasoline and diesel vehicles by that year; Germany banning internal combustion engines by 2030; and France and Great Britain ending gasoline and diesel car sales by 2040. Not to mention China’s subsidies moving sales of new energy vehicles and Europe and the US seeing strong EV sales. What’s the tipping point? Battery technology, which have a host of challenges to overcome, according to the author.

I would say that two developments will likely slow the pace of EV sales growth we’ve seen over the past nine years, and extend the timing of when we see them make a substantial global impact. One is China cutting its generous subsidies, and the other being a battle between the Trump administration and California’s clean car standards (see news section for more on the battle).

EV sales are declining for now, but how long will that last?

The chart below takes a look at the past decade of battery electric and plug-in hybrid sales since the launch of the Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Volt in late 2010. A few points stand out while reviewing the short history of mass market production-level electric vehicles.

EV sales trends since 2011:  The US was the market leader until 2015, when “new energy vehicle” subsidies began flowing in China and more electric vehicle product offerings entered that market. European countries also began seeing more acceptance of the technology and more EV models to consider. Norway continues to be No. 3 in global EV sales with its extensive government support in subsidies and charging infrastructure. Japan has been in the top five countries for cumulative EV sales.

Two thousand fifteen was the outlier year for US sales, with one of the factors being the Chevrolet Volt dropping in sales as the new next-generation Volt with range boosted from 38 miles to 53 started showing up at dealerships late in the year. Other market trends that pulled EV sales down were low gas prices, fewer incentives, and a broader market shift away from cars and toward SUVs and pickup trucks. But global EV sales kept their upward trajectory, leaping 71.58 percent in 2015 over 2014.

China is by far the leading sales market, with the US following in second with about a quarter of China’s EV sales in the past two years. China’s NEV sales data includes passenger vehicles and heavy-duty commercial vehicles such as buses and sanitation trucks. China’s new energy vehicle mandate and its generous subsidies have brought the purchase prices down substantially. Building out its charging infrastructure has helped, too, as has the launch of a long list of NEVs built and sold by Chinese automakers and joint ventures between foreign automakers and local automakers.

Battery electric vehicles are leading by far in key global markets over plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. Last year, BEVs had 66.8% of the US plug-in vehicle market. By December 2018, the stock of new energy vehicles sold in China since 2011 saw 79.4% as BEVs. In Europe during 2018, the sales numbers were closer, with BEVs in the lead by over 40,000 units — 223,284 BEVs and 182,768 PHEVs.

As for popular models, here were the top 10 global sellers in 2018:
1. Tesla Model 3 — 145,846 units sold
2. BAIC EC-Series — 90.637
3. Nissan Leaf — 87,149
4. Tesla Model S — 50,045
5. Tesla Model X — 49,349
6. BYD Qin PHEV — 47,452
7. JAC iEV E/S — 46,586
8. BYD e5 — 46,251
9. Toyota Prius Prime — 45,686
10. Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV — 41,888
Source: InsideEVs

These sales figures show a few trends, one of which is how important the US continues to be for Tesla’s sales. Of the 145,846 Model 3s sold last year, 139,782 were sold in the US. About half of the Model S and Model X units delivered last year were sold in the US with Europe being important for Tesla’s growth. Now with its China plant starting up, that market is expected to be very important for future sales and model introductions.

The BAIC, BYD, and JAC models are sold almost exclusively in China, although BYD is continuing to sign more contracts for electric buses and other commercial vehicles around the world. The Nissan Leaf and Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV are seeing more success outside the US, with Europe being the main marketing focus.

Forecast reports usually cite upcoming vehicle emissions rules, governments moving toward banning gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles, growth in Level 2 and fast-charging stations, and a wide variety of plug-in vehicle offerings — with many more coming to market over the next decade. Automakers expect the pricing to come down as battery costs decline and EV drivetrains, parts, electronic systems, and exterior and interior design, become more economical and efficient in the near future.

What automakers have in the pipelines: Another topic in the reports has been commitments made by manufacturers to roll out an extensive lineup of plug-in vehicles — and sometimes more hybrids and fuel cell vehicles.

The Volkswagen Group continues to lead the charge, expanding its list of new launches in March from 50 to 70 in the near future. The company expects to be building 22 million plug-in vehicles with its new electric drives, such as the MEB, over the next decade on the VW, Audi, Porsche, and SEAT brands — an increase from 15 million in the initial target. The German automaker has collaborated with the Petersen Automotive Museum in Los Angeles to demonstrate its vision of EVs and mobility of the future next month. “Building an Electric Future” will open November 20 and will celebrate Volkswagen’s history both globally and locally, as well as introduce VW’s new electric concept vehicles. A global concept unveiling of an all-new ID concept vehicle will take place at a private event on Tuesday, November 19.

BMW AG plans to increase sales of its battery electric and plug-in hybrids by 30 percent every year until 2025 to help meet incoming stringent emission regulation in the European Union. The company moved up its goal for rolling out a lineup of 25 all-electric and plug-in hybrid models by two years to 2023. This would mean BMW will have sold a total of about 700,000 plug-in vehicles by 2025.

Daimler plans to release 10 different all-electric vehicles by 2022. The company is taking a holistic approach to electrification under the new EQ technology and product brand and a charging infrastructure to support it. Daimler will also be electrifying the entire Mercedes‑Benz portfolio. Customers will have the choice of at least one electric alternative in every Mercedes‑Benz model series, taking the total to 50 overall.

Ford Motor Co. is increasing investments in electric vehicles to $11 billion by 2022 and will have 40 hybrid and fully electric vehicles in its model lineup. In April, Ford said it planned to launch more than 30 new Ford and Lincoln vehicles in China over the next three years as it tries to reverse a decline in sales in the world’s biggest auto market; and about one third of them will be EVs. This summer, Ford revealed its first all-electric SUV for that market, the Territory EV, built on Chinese partner Jianling’s compact SUV. It follows a plug-in hybrid variant of the Ford Mondeo, and will be its second plug-in vehicle for the Chinese market.

Toyota has a company goal of selling 5.5 million electrified, Toyota-brand vehicles annually by 2030, up from about 1.6 million vehicles now. The company set up a $10 billion r&d fund for catching up with competitors, and has created a new EV architecture that offers flexibility in size and battery power.

Honda announced a week ago that it will sell only plug-in electric and hybrid vehicles in Europe starting in 2022, three years earlier than previously planned. The Japanese automaker will be launching six new models in Europe over the next three years. The company said it shows its confidence in the technology and seeing regulatory changes that are changing the course of Europe’s auto industry. “The pace of change in regulation, the market, and consumer behavior in Europe means that the shift towards electrification is happening faster here than anywhere else,” said Tom Gardner, senior vice president at Honda.

Tesla has three models poised to come out in the next few years. The Tesla Roadster 2020 is the first-ever follow-up to the company’s debut electric car, the Roadster 2008. CEO Elon Musk boasts that the upcoming supercar will be able to go from 0 to 60 in 1.9 seconds, and can reach a top speed of 250 miles-per-hour. It will cost at least $200,000 when it rolls out next year. The compact SUV Model Y was revealed in March 2019, and will be the company’s second mass market model after the Model 3. It will be able to go 300 miles on a single charge, and it will begin shipping in late 2020 with the standard range model following in Spring 2021. Starting prices for four different variations will go from $39,000 to $60,000. Musk brags that it will have SUV functionality, it will ride like a sports car, and will be the safest SUV in the world. The Tesla Semi heavy-duty truck will go into production next year, and will go nearly 400 miles on a 30-minute charge. The company also says it will go from 0-60 in 20 seconds while hauling 80,000 pounds. It’s expected have a $180,000 starting price.

BYD Company Ltd. sold a total of 520,687 vehicles in 2018, which was made up of petroleum-powered models, all electric, and plug-in hybrids. A Deloitte study forecasted that by 2030, the company will be selling about 18 million units, following Tesla’s expected sales that year of about 22 million vehicles. However, I consider both of these forecast numbers to be extremely optimistic. Last year, BYD narrowly beat Tesla in deliveries to be No. 1 in the world — BYD sold about 250,000 EVs compared toTesla’s 245,240. In April, the company announced six new EV models will be coming up, a mix of all-electric and plug-in hybrid. In July, BYD announced an alliance with Toyota to develop EVs that will be coming out in China between 2020 and 2025. For now, the company is investing heavily in building its clientele for commercial vehicles such as electric buses and trucks in markets all over the world.

Market softening lately:  The last three months have been tough for the Chinese makers, and the US has followed a similar pattern. Year-to-date, the end of September saw global EV sales down to 157,696 units from 175,362, breaking the traditional market growth. US EV sales dropped down to 236,067 for the year as of Sept. 30, 2019 compared to 234,635 for the year on Sept. 30, 2018. September 2018 sales reached 44,589 while September 2019 saw sales down to 33,128 units.

Reductions in electric vehicle subsidies and a cooling economy impacted the Chinese market. The US is seeing a similar sales slide withe overall new vehicle market down 12 percent in September from the previous year, while EVs were down 25.5% year-over-year. One reason for the drop is that the Tesla Model 3 had an unexpectedly high ramp up of production in the second half of 2018.

Tesla Model 3 deliveries are slightly up over last year — 236,067 for the year at the of September, versus 234,635 units through the end of September 2018. The US plug-in vehicle market is expected to decline through this year before a rebound starts next year.

What the forecast numbers look like:  The most commonly cited forecast on 2030 comes from The International Energy Agency’s New Policies Scenario. The study expects that by 2030, global plug-in vehicle sales will reach 23 million for that year and the stock of owned EVs will exceed 130 million vehicles (excluding two and three-wheelers). That’s under one forecast analysis including the impact of announced policy ambitions by several governments; the IEA scenario includes another potential outcome where the number shoots up to 43 million with the stock coming to more than 250 million.

There’ve been other forecasts. In May, Mining and resources giant BHP forecasted that electric vehicles could achieve more than 50 percent share of global new vehicle sales by 2030, and 100 per cent of all vehicle sales by 2050.

Global new vehicle sales are expected to come in at about 80 million units this year. Germany’s Center for Automotive Research (CAR) predicts that in 2022 sales will rise back to 84 million.

Let’s say new vehicle sales reach 100 million by 2030. How much of it would likely be new plug-in vehicles?

Between 2011 and 2018, new EV sales in the US averaged a 56.8 percent annual increase, and global had an average of 67.34 percent. To refine the numbers to more recent market trends, between 2014 to 2018 the average annual growth for US plug-in sales came to 33.69 percent. For global sales, the average annual sales growth between 2014 to 2018 was 57.14 percent with China leading the boom.

Global car and light commercial vehicle sales in 2018 came to about 86 million new vehicle deliveries. Battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales came in at 2,018,247 units last year — 2.34 percent of the total. New vehicle sales came in at 17.27 million in the US last year; at 361,307 units, EVs made up 2.09 percent of that total.

So let’s say market conditions look similar in the next few years, without big changes enacted such as a fossil fuel ban in a sizable country. What would that look like?

At the rate of 57 percent in global annual EV sales increases, plug-in vehicles would make up 100 percent of the global new vehicles sales market during 2027. As that scenario would be impossible to reach (aside from an unforeseen miracle), what about viewing a much more conservative forecast — 10 percent annual growth in EV global sales under current market conditions? While a much lower percentage, 10 percent could be realistic given China will be soon cutting out its subsidies, blockades are coming from the Trump administration, downward auto sales in several countries will continue for a while, gasoline prices are staying fairly low, and challenges persist for convincing consumers and fleets to transfer over to EV purchases — charging infrastructure, battery capacity, range getting much better, and perceived long-term value and trustworthiness of transitioning over from ICEs to EVs.

Let’s also assume that EVs making up at least 50 percent of global new vehicle sales would make for a realistic tipping point in emissions reductions, lessening dependence on oil, and hitting a few government targets.

Going with the 10 percent annual sales growth scenario would only bring the number up to about 5,757,995 new EVs sold globally by 2030 — just shy of 6 percent of global new vehicle sales, given the forecast of 100 million units sold by 2030. A recent IHS Markit study, which takes a conservative approach, sees EVs making up 7.6 percent of total new vehicle sales by 2025.

If you take 25 percent annual EV sales growth in global sales, it’s going to look a lot more like the low-end forecast of another study this year. The IEA’s New Policies Scenario expects that by 2030, global EV sales will reach 23 million for that year and the stock of owned EVs will exceed 130 million vehicles.

Perhaps 2040 to 2050 is a more realistic scenario for EVs playing a major role in new vehicle sales, emissions reductions, and having a major impact on oil prices — in terms of hitting the 50 percent mark. If government mandates are enacted and enforced, it would be closer to 2040.

BloombergNEF’s “Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019” report came to a similar conclusion.  The report shows that EVs will take up 57 percent of global passenger vehicle sales by 2040. Electric buses will dominate their sector, holding 81 percent of municipal bus sales by the same date, according to the report.

Norway, Germany, France, China, Costa Rica, South Korea, the UK, Japan, Spain, Taiwan, Portugal, Netherlands, Israel, India, Denmark, and Ireland have proposed a ban on fossil-fuel powered vehicles. Previous Prime Minister Theresa May in June signed the “net-zero” mandate that would cut emissions 80 percent by 2050 compared to 1990 levels. Britain is the first G7 country to commit to a net zero greenhouse gas emissions target for 2050. The new Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, is continuing support for the net-zero emissions mandate.

BMW Group may present a more realistic view of how most global automakers are likely to perform in commitment to the new technology in the short term — a slower and gradual strategy rather than launching 20 or more new EV models with a commitment to roll them out in vast numbers by 2025 to 2030 (that VW and other OEMs are championing). BMW predicts it will have sold about 700,000 plug-in vehicles sold by 2025.

The German automaker just released a sales report on EV market share, or “Electromobility in Europe.” The study says that BMW has 13 percent of European sales and Tesla has 20 percent. As for the US, BMW had six plug-in models sold through September, coming in at 9,875 vehicles delivered — 4.18 percent of the country’s EV market.

So, what market conditions will be needed to reach the 50 percent mark? These factors are sure to be watched for:

  • Continuing falls in the price of EV batteries. One study reports that since 2010, the average cost of lithium-ion batteries per kilowatt-hour has fallen by 85 percent.
  • Extended range of battery power, 300 miles per charge.
  • Fast charging networks in high-traffic zones, with free access or reasonable user pricing.
  • China’s new energy vehicle mandate, and whether the national government decides to bring it back. Subsidies have also been generously spread by a few other countries (especially Norway); and states, provinces, and cities in North America, Europe, and Asia. Will these continue, and for how long?
  • The future of California’s Advanced Clean Cars Program, and the battle between the state and the Trump administration over the future of those rules and the national standard.
  • Fleet acquisitions, including the Electrification Coalition launched in 2018 and announced by LA Mayor Eric Garcetti — an online portal that provides cities with a single, equal price for EVs and charging infrastructure by aggregating the demand from Climate Mayors cities and other public agencies.
  • Commercial applications for electric vans, light- and medium-duty trucks, and for municipal buses, will make a significant difference. That’s been the case in China, and is starting to take hold in the US and Europe.

EVs have the potential to become the leading powertrain system used in autonomous vehicles in the next couple of decades. The next feature exploring the 2030 trend will analyze when its likely to see regulatory hurdles cleared and self-driving vehicles going into high-volume production.

A few interesting news briefs:
Battle over clean car rules:  General Motors, Toyota, FCA, Hyundai, and the National Automobile Dealers Association, are backing the Trump administration’s efforts to gut fuel economy standards and California’s ability to keep the bar high. These companies said that in a filing with a U.S. appeals court late on Monday, arguing the administration’s rule provided “vehicle manufacturers with the certainty that states cannot interfere with federal fuel economy standards.”
In July, Ford, Honda, and Volkswagen made a deal with California supporting the state’s policies. The Trump administration is preparing to roll back next month the fuel efficiency standards set by the Obama Administration and revoke California’s ability to set stricter clean-car standards, including the zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate. Last month, the US Environmental Protection Agency and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration published its overhauled rule, called “SAFE Vehicles Rule Part One: One National Standard,” to take effect November 26.

Aftermath of GM strike:  The United Auto Workers and General Motors agreed to partner under their new contract to manage the impact of new technologies that could threaten thousands of jobs. The National Committee on Advanced Technology would meet quarterly review changes the automaker must implement as it tests 3D printing, plans to bring autonomous taxi rides to the streets, and globally rolls out 20 battery-electric vehicles that require fewer parts than their internal combustion counterparts. GM says these EV will come to market by 2023. The Chevrolet Bolt’s powertrain has 80 percent fewer moving parts than a comparable car with a gasoline engine, experts have said. And autonomous vehicles won’t need steering wheels, brake pedals and instrument panels, an expert said. The union has expressed concerns over thousands of jobs going away from these historic changes being made. The automaker has slashed its earnings forecast for 2019, saying that the strike would cost it around $3 billion in profits this year. Production was going back to full speed earlier this week.

Factory expansion for electric truckmaker:  Orange EV, the first original equipment manufacturer to commercially deploy all-electric electric Class 8 trucks, just announced its second facility expansion in four years, moving to a site with more than five times the production capacity in Kansas City, Mo. Orange EV’s Class 8 Heavy Duty terminal trucks have been commercially deployed since 2015, operating daily in railroad inter-modal, LTL freight, manufacturing, distribution centers, port operations, waste management, trans loading, cross docking, warehouse, yard management, third party logistics (3PL), and other container handling operations. More than 60 fleets have chosen Orange EV pure electric terminal trucks for commercial deployment in 14 states across the US. In California, Orange EV trucks have been purchased and are in use at more than 40 customer locations.

Tesla earnings:  Tesla Inc’s third-quarter revenue fell 39 percent in the US, a regulatory filing showed. A record number of cars shipped in the third quarter of 2019 were enough to help Tesla turn a modest profit, according to financial figures released by the electric carmaker on Wednesday. The company reported $143 in net income, and $6.3 billion in revenue — down slightly from second quarter and down about $530 million from Q3 2018. Tesla reported that the drop in revenue comes from a tripling in the number of customers leasing its cars, mainly from Model 3 leases that launched in April of this year.

EV cash for clunkers:  US Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) proposed a plan last week in an op-ed piece that would provide car owners with “large discounts” if they trade in their polluting, gas-powered vehicles for “clean” electric ones. It would be similar to the the Obama administration’s “cash-for-clunkers” program initiated in 2009. The legislation has yet to be written and introduced, but is based on supporting that every vehicle on the road is zero-emission by 2040; and the legislation would result in 63 million fewer gasoline-powered cars on roads by 2030.

Forecast on where global car sales are going over next decade, Ugly signs we’ve crossed the line on climate change

Expectations have been in place that the next decade will be as historically significant as the birth of mass production automobiles — when Henry Ford’s company put the first Model T in production in 1908 and watched it reach the 15 millionth unit 19 years later. But will the 2020s be likely to see these historic shifts fall in place, with the year 2030 typically used in forecasts and emissions reduction goals as the benchmark for adoption? That benchmark could include steadily declining new vehicles sales; electric vehicles becoming more important to automakers and vehicle owners than cars and trucks powered by internal combustion engines; autonomous vehicles clearing regulatory hurdles and starting production; mobility services leading the way in traffic- and smog-congested cities; and younger consumers choosing autonomous, electric, shared ride services over owning their own personal vehicles.

Good questions. Let’s take a look at the first one………
Auto sales forecast: New vehicle sales increased in June in China, the world’s largest auto market, but that came during a 14 month period where 13 of them were in decline. July saw the decline fall back into place. Rising trade tensions and tariffs, a slowdown in China’s booming economy, and implementation of stricter emissions rules, have had their impact. Much of the the June sales boom was fueled by dealers cutting prices way down to clear inventory and prepare for exhaust controls coming to new vehicles. LMC Automotive estimates 2019 will see a second straight annual drop in China. India has seen sales decline at an alarming rate this year, with automakers cutting production and putting plans on hold to increase capacity. Analysts worry that U.S. auto sales reached their historic peak and will continue to see decline this year. Germany’s Center for Automotive Research says that the global auto market is about to take its biggest hit since the financial crisis of 2008, with sales declining by more than four million units at the end of this year.

There are concerns over a global economic slowdown potentially dragging out the current sales decline, yet global sales growth is far from being over. Studies by McKinsey, IHS Markit, Bank of America and Merrill Lynch, and AutoForecast Solutions, predict a return to growth in new vehicle sales worldwide. Should these studies be taken seriously? Yes, as they do tap into auto executive interviews on their product pipelines in the coming years, and opinions expressed by shareholders.

A McKinsey report forecasts global new vehicle sales will return to an increase, but not at the steep rate we’d seen over the past five years. That was at 3.6 percent per year, and it should decline and level out around 2 percent annual growth rate by 2030. Consumers are buying a lot of new vehicles, many times for the first time ever. China, India, Brazil, and a few other countries with emerging economies, are expected to see economic growth return with consumers moving to growing metro regions with strong job demand and more need for transportation beyond metro trains and buses.

The McKinsey study expects that the decline and leveling out will come from macroeconomic factors and the rise of new mobility services such as ride hailing, car sharing, and eventually by automated shared rides.

“New mobility services may result in a decline of private vehicle sales, but this decline is likely to be partially offset by increased sales in shared vehicles that need to be replaced more often due to higher utilization and related wear and tear. The remaining driver of growth in global car sales is the overall positive macroeconomic development, including the rise of the global consumer middle class. As established markets are no longer expanding, growth will continue to rely on emerging economies, particularly China and India,” according to the McKinsey study.

These findings have been echoed in other market reports, with many including electric vehicles in the numbers. A dominant topic of conversation among industry panelists last month at the 54th annual CAR Management Briefing Seminars in Michigan, was the speed in which key markets around the world will adopt EVs and increasing levels of autonomous mobility. Cybersecurity was another key concern, with fear of hackers being able to take over vehicles and shut down the grid, being reiterated by speakers.

AutoForecast Solutions and IHS Markit released studies forecasting overall new vehicle sales growth to continue through at least 2026. Electric vehicles are supposed to replace internal combustion engines in large numbers by 2030, but IHS Markit sees that taking much longer — reaching only 7.6 percent of the total by 2025. Another previous forecast has been set aside, with the young Millennial generation actually buying cars like their parents did and keeping them longer.

Global plug-in vehicle deliveries reached 2.1 million units for 2018, 64 percent higher than for 2017 and 2.4 percent of the world’s overall 86 million units sold last year. The International Energy Agency’s New Policies Scenario expects that by 2030, global EV sales will reach 23 million for that year and the stock of owned EVs will exceed 130 million vehicles (excluding two and three-wheelers). That’s under one forecast analysis including the impact of announced policy ambitions by several governments; the IEA scenario includes another potential outcome where the number shoots up to 43 million and the stock coming to more than 250 million. Either predicted scenario would cut oil demand substantially.

China saw its first drop in recorded EV sales in July. Monthly global sales fell 14 percent with declines in China and North America during that month. Reductions in EV subsidies and a cooling economy impacted the China market. Another top auto market, India, is struggling to get consumers and rickshaw drivers to convert over to EVs and meet goals the government had laid out.

For now (and in another study), the IEA sees oil being king and the US playing a leading role over the next six years. That comes form rapid growth in the shale industry. By 2024, the US will export more oil than Russia and will come close to Saudi Arabia’s exports.

Other advanced fuels, such as renewable natural gas, will offset the advantages stable fuel prices offer petroleum suppliers when it comes to fleets. Affordable gasoline and diesel, and concern over incentives diminishing, are expected to keep EV sales at bay in the US for now with fleets and consumers. Traditional ICE vehicles with good fuel economy, strong crash safety ratings, and a full spectrum of features and connectivity, are leading the way for now. As for new vehicle purchases, it appears that major markets won’t see their numbers go way down over the next decade. It will take longer before alternative modes and energies will be fundamentally and historically altering the industry.

Signs that we’ve crossed the tipping point with climate change:  New fires are continuing to start up in the Amazon rain forest, caused by famers, cattle ranchers and other sources. The world’s largest absorber of greenhouse gases may change roles and begin emitting them, according to scientists. There are other indicators of environmental hazards approaching: Australia’s Great Barrier Reef may be seeing the end of its days….. More than 1 in 10 Americans — 34 million people — are living in rapidly heating regions. Seventy-one counties have already hit the benchmark 2-degree Celsius mark………. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts a further rise of between 1.4°C and 5.8°C by the end of the century in oceans. It would take out many species which are already under stress from overfishing and habitat loss; and the oceans are becoming increasingly acidic…… Scientists recently announced that July equaled, if not surpassed, the hottest month in recorded history. The heat wave that wreaked havoc on Europe in late July has now reached Greenland, causing the ice in the region to melt at a rapid pace.

A few interesting news briefs:

  • On Friday, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, announced Tesla is receiving an exemption from a 10-percent purchase tax. It’s part of a broad national policy applying to domestic electric vehicles. Prior to that on August 20, Tesla was included in Shanghai’s Pilot Free Trade Zone, which will also help the EV maker gain a financial advantage in the world’s largest EV market.
  • Chinese automaker BYD took third place (behind Qualcomm and MasterCard) on Fortune Magazine’s “Change the World” list 2019, which is the American publication’s annual ranking of companies that are hitting targets to help the planet and tackle society’s unmet needs. BYD’s cited achievements include building a flexible “e-platform” for EV design and construction, competitive pricing that’s helped further commercialize EVs, and the recent deal to jointly develop electric vehicles with Japan’s Toyota that should expand BYD’s global reach.
  • The 2019 Hyundai Nexo hydrogen fuel cell electric SUV has earned a TOP SAFETY PICK+ award from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) for vehicles built after June 2019. The Nexo, which is only available in California, is the first such hydrogen fuel cell vehicle that IIHS has tested for crash safety.
  • The Ford Police Interceptor Utility 2020 model is now the first-ever pursuit-rated police utility vehicle with a standard hybrid engine. Agencies in cities such as San Diego, Columbus, Ohio, and Madison, Wisc., have committed to adding hybrids to their law enforcement fleets. So far, these agencies have ordered more than 2,600 units equipped with the standard 3.3-liter hybrid engine.
  • Car sharing service Share Now, which was created this year as part of a joint venture between BMW and Daimler, will expand its electric fleet significantly under the agreement with the City of Munich. A total of 200 BMW i3s will be available to Share Now customers on Munich roads by the end of the year.
  • From GAM editor’s blog post, called The mysterious vanishing of Americans 40 to 60 — and why we were named Generation X: “The next time you go out and about, take a 365-degree look around you. Millennials (ages 23 to 38 during this year) and GenZers (ages 7 to 22) are out doing things in vast numbers, with Millennials nearly as big in population as Baby Boomers — and GenZers following right behind. But what’s happening to my peers in Generation X? We’re there, but in smaller numbers; and many of us are somewhere else — such as working long hours.”

Plug-in vehicle sales beating overall market, Tesla quarterly numbers exceed expectations

EV sales beat overall market:  Plug-in vehicles had a strong increase in the first half of the year, while U.S. and global total new vehicle sales stalled out. InsideEVs reports that 148,704 plug-in vehicles were sold in the U.S. during the first half of 2019, compared to 124,256 for first half of 2019. That makes for an increase of 19.67 percent over that same period last year of plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles. Through May, there were 840,814 in global plug-in vehicle sales, versus 591,796 for the first five months of 2018 — an increase of 42 percent over that same period last year.

As for overall new vehicle sales in the U.S., sales were down 2.4 percent halfway through 2019, and is expected to be at 16.9 million by the end of the year; that would be the first time total light-duty new vehicle sales would be below 17 million since 2014. Global new vehicle sales are expected tom come in at 78.7 million units, which is about the same level as 2017 and 2018. The global market had seen a leap in 2016 over the previous years. Sales are still considered to be strong this year; rising auto loans have hurt demand. However, some analysts believe that new vehicle sales will be declining in the U.S., and eventually other markets, as car ownership drops in importance and alternative forms of mobility become more popular.

The Tesla Model 3 continues to dominate U.S. market with 21,225 units sold in June versus No. 2 on the list, the Tesla Model X, which sold 2,725 units during that month. Battery electric vehicles are still dominating the U.S. market. For May 2019 sales, Electric Drive Transportation Association reported there were 21,248 BEVs sold, 7,138 plug-in hybrids, and 283 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

Tesla performance up:  Tesla’s stock went up 7 percent Tuesday after reporting it produced 87,048 vehicles in the second quarter while delivering 95,200, strong performance that exceeded analyst forecasts. The company manufactured 17,650 Model S and X vehicles and 77,550 Model 3s. Among deliveries, 77,550 were Model 3s while the other 17,650 were Models S and X. Right before the quarterly report, CEO Elon Musk was on Twitter promoting Tesla Direct, a new service that offers some buyers of the Model 3, S and X the option to have their car dropped off at their home or office. It’s gaining a lot of interest and support, and some considering it an element of Tesla focusing on its strengths — quality EVs and a high level of customer service.

Cruise gains SoftBank investment:  Cruise Automation, a U.S. self-driving vehicle company majority-owned by General Motors Co. (and operating under the name GM Cruise), announced Friday that a U.S. national security panel approved a $2.25 billion investment in the firm by Japan’s SoftBank Corp. SoftBank has come under increasing U.S. scrutiny over its ties to Chinese firms in the face of an escalating trade and technology war between those two countries. It comes out of SoftBank’s $100 billion Vision Fund investment pool.

VW’s Paris Accord strategy:  Volkswagen has released more information on its commitment made earlier this year to commit itself to the goals of the Paris Agreement. The commitment to carbon neutrality comes in three parts: reducing carbon dioxide emitted from vehicles and factories; adopting renewable energy sources, whether at the plant level for Volkswagen and its suppliers, or encouraging their use for Volkswagen owners; and using carbon offsets to tackle those remaining carbon emissions that can’t be further reduced. One key element of hitting its target by 2050 will be making its vehicles and production carbon neutral. That includes Volkswagen vehicles sold in the US and the factory in Chattanooga, powered by a planned Group-wide investment in EVs sold worldwide – more than $50 billion over the next four years, with approximately $10 billion from the VW brand alone.

Sharing MEB platform:  Ford and Volkswagen have reached an initial agreement to share electric and autonomous vehicle technologies, extending their alliance beyond working together on commercial vehicles, a source familiar with the matter said. VW will share its MEB electric vehicle platform with Ford, the source said. VW’s supervisory board is due to discuss deepening the alliance at a meeting on July 11, 2019, a second source told Reuters.

Tesla Model 3 helping EVs go mainstream, Subscription services come to ride hailing

EVs going mainstream: Along with plug-in electric vehicles making it to the one million mark for U.S. auto sales in October, it was historic and interesting to see the Tesla Model 3 continue to make the Top 10 in America’s light-duty car segment — in October coming in at #6 behind the Hyundai Elantra and before the Nissan Sentra. In an interview this week with Recode, CEO Elon Musk said that 5,000 cars produced a week at its Fremont, Calif. plant has become the norm, and that’s being raised to 6,000 to 7,000 units a week. To hit about 6,500 a week “it would have to stress people out and do tons of overtime,” he said.

How long for AVs to go mainstream:  It was a milestone to see California grant Waymo the right to test self-driving vehicles without human safety drivers. Waymo has been putting in the hours and reporting the data — more than 10 million miles of real-world public-road testing, and seven billion miles of simulation testing. But it’s still in the testing phase in U.S. states allowing for it, and a few other countries overseas. We’re probably looking at a decade from now before they’re commonly seen on roadways. Perhaps trucking will see it first, with the lack of available commercial-grade drivers and accidents caused by those not getting enough sleep. Cargo carriers may have to come up with their own insurance for their fleets, as insurance companies are making it difficult to find the right coverage.

Subscription services comes to ride-hailing:  Uber is following Lyft — and several automakers — by now offering customers a subscription service, called Ride Pass. Users are guaranteed set prices for a monthly fee. That comes out to $24.99 in Los Angeles, and $14.99 in Austin, Orlando, Denver, and Miami. Subscribers pay fares based on historical data and won’t change based on demand or other circumstance, such as the costly “surge pricing” during peak hours. Lyft launched its All-Access Plan last month. The service costs $299 per month and gives users 30 rides worth up to $15 each. If a ride costs more than $15, the user pays the difference. Automakers have been offering their subscription services in recent years — with BMW, Cadillac, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, and Volvo, tapping into the car financing model where customers who might have been reluctant to come over to the brand are trying it out; with the hope they’ll be loyal brand buyers and tap into their dealer networks for service and maintenance, shared ride services, etc.

Tesla Model 3 leads electric vehicle sales in January, Fuel prices climbing up

Tesla Model 3 leads plug-in sales:  The Tesla Model 3 is now the top selling plug-in vehicle in the U.S., even if Tesla is still behind on its original production forecast from last year. The 1,875 sales total for the Model 3 for January comes from Inside EVs. It’s based on about 860 units being sent to customers at the end of the quarter, which are expected to be counted as deliveries in Q1 2018. The company also said that it was reaching a production rate of 1,000 units per week following the end of Q4 deliveries. The Toyota Prius Prime took the second spot at 1,496 units sold; the Chevy Bolt came in at 1,177, the Tesla Model S had 800 units sold in January, and the Chevy Volt had 713 vehicles sold. Plug-in vehicles had a better January in the U.S. than the overall light-duty vehicle sales market. Autodata Corp. reported a 1% increase at 1.15 million new vehicles sold last month. Inside EVs estimates that battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales went up about 10% from last year, with 12,116 units sold in January 2018 compared to 11,004 in January 2017.

Nissan and Infiniti launching six EVs:  Nissan and its Infiniti luxury brand will represent half of the 12 EVs that CEO Carlos Ghosn committed to last year for the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance. Toshihiro Hirai, Nissan’s corporate vice president for powertrain and EV engineering, said that Nissan will be rolling out four all-electric vehicles and Infiniti will launch two all-electrics over the next five years. Like the Nissan Leaf, these new models will be battery electric vehicles. They won’t be utilizing the company’s new E-Power system, which uses a small gasoline engine to generate power for an electric motor.

Fuel prices climbing up:  Gasoline prices have gone up in the past week in several states. The national average is at $2.605, according to AAA. A year ago it was $2.270, and it’s up from $2.490 a month ago. Diesel is at $2.998, up from $2.509 a year ago and $2.893 a month ago. As for the price of a barrel of oil, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has gone up from $53.01 on Feb. 6, 2017 to $64.73 today.

Hawaii and California have the highest gasoline prices, at $3.391 and $3.344, respectively. Hawaii is usually one of the highest, with the additional cost of shipping petroleum to the islands built into the cost. California is usually higher than the national average, but prices have been spiking up in the past few months. Starting in November, California motorists have been paying 12 cents more per gallon for gasoline and 20 cents more for diesel. This came from state tax increases being used to improve road conditions.

New vehicle sales haven’t been affected by fuel price increases yet. Trucks were up 8% in sales last month while cars were down 10.8% with small and mid-size cars down even further. Hybrids and plug-in vehicles were up in sales last month, but they still only make a small percentage of total sales – hybrids at 1.91% and plug-ins at a little over 1% of total U.S. light-duty vehicle sales in January. The University of Michigan’s Transportation Research Institute has seen the sales-weighted average fuel economy in new vehicle sales hover around the 25.0 to 25.3 mpg mark for several months.

But fuel prices are expected to go up this year. Average prices could climb by more than 10%, in the near future says Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at Boston-based GasBuddy, which monitors fuel prices across the U.S.  One OilPrice.com analyst predicts that the price of a WTI barrel of oil will go up from its current $64.73 to about $70 a barrel in the near future.

Gas pump prices have always made for a strong argument to consumers and fleets over buying more fuel-efficient vehicles including hybrids, plug-in vehicles, and alternative fuel vehicles. It was weakened in the summer of 2014 with falling pump prices. That argument will become stronger as fuel prices continue to rise.

 

For Today: Plug-in vehicle sales in May, Pope Francis receives Ampera-e

How plug-in sales performed:  The Toyota Prius Prime led U.S. plug-in vehicle sales for the second month in a row, beating the Chevy Volt 1,908 units sold over 1,817, respectively. The Volt barely nudged out the Tesla Model X, which came in at an estimated 1,800 units sold last month, according to HybridCars. The Model X beat the Model S, with the Model S coming in at about 1,700 units sold. All of the top selling vehicles were up from the previous month with the Model X leading the pack by doubling sales over April. Both Tesla models and the Chevy Volt and Bolt were up over April and over May 2016. Plug-in hybrids did very well overall compared to last month and one year ago. Hybrid vehicles also saw a good month with May sales up 9% over April and 10.4% over May 2016. The Toyota Prius beat the Ford Fusion Hybrid in sales during May.

Waymo self-driving trucks:  Alphabet’s Waymo autonomous vehicle division is testing out its self-driving technology on a Class 8 heavy-duty Peterbilt truck. Testing has been taking place on a private test track in California. Highway testing is to be conducted later this year in Arizona, the company said. This is taking place as Waymo continues its legal battle with Uber over alleged intellectual property theft used in the Otto autonomous truck startup that Uber had acquired. Now Waymo is getting into trucking its own way. “We’re taking our eight years of experience in building self-driving hardware and software and conducting a technical exploration into how our technology can integrate into a truck,” said the company in a statement.

Opel Ampera-e in Vatican City:  Pope Francis, who does believe climate change is real, has accepted the keys to a new Opel Ampera-e (aka Chevy Bolt). Opel CEO Karl-Thomas Neumann delivered the all-electric sedan, which is contributing to Vatican City’s goal to become the first carbon free country in the world through the use of electric mobility and renewable energy. “We are proud that we as Opel can contribute to the ambitious goals of the Vatican City. Our new Ampera-e will make electric mobility feasible for everyday use without any compromises,” said Neumann.

This Week’s Top 10: Conflict and confusion over biofuel blends, Green car sales beat overall sales in February

by Jon LeSage, editor and publisher, Green Auto Market

Here’s my take on the 10 most significant and interesting occurrences during the past week…….

  1. Battle over biofuels: Conflict and confusion over biofuel blends in gasoline – and who will do the blending – continue to shake up Washington. Renewable Fuels Association President Bob Dineen told Reuters last week that Carl Icahn, an oil industry billionaire and advisor to the Trump administration, had told Dineen that the administration would be taking a favorable position for refiners such as corn ethanol producers. The fuel blending of about 10% ethanol to gasoline would be sent down the supply chain to gasoline marketers through an executive order by the president, Dineen said. Icahn and the White House later denied this was said to Dineen. Biofuel groups and producers have been upset that Icahn has been playing this role for the White House. The oil executive demanded during the election campaign that the obligation and costs should go to fuel blenders and not to oil companies and their supply chain partners. Several biofuel companies have also been upset with RFA for taking what had appeared to be a position opposing their stance on the matter. As of Monday, oil refiners including Valero Energy Corp. and CVR Energy Inc. (in which Icahn owns a majority stake) currently have to show environmental regulators they are meeting annual mandates; they’ve urged the federal government to push this compliance further downstream to fuel blenders and integrated oil companies. The White House says it’s taking this request under review. In other related news, U.S. ethanol production set a new record of 15.33 billion gallons in 2016, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA data showed that the average gallon of gasoline likely contained slightly more than 10.0% ethanol in 2016. The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimates that Environmental Protection Agency rules on 2017 biofuel volumes will put the ethanol-to-gasoline ratio at 10.4%, higher than the 9.7% ration recommended by the oil industry association.
  2. Green car sales in February: Sales of hybrid and plug-in vehicles were up sizably from January in the usual seasonal sales pattern, and both categories beat the overall market according to HybridCar’s Dashboard. Total light-duty vehicles sales were down 1.1% from February 2016, but hybrids saw an increase of 16.3% and plug-ins saw a leap of 45.12% over the previous year. The Chevy Bolt continued to do well, finishing fifth for all plug-in electrified vehicles sold in the U.S. during February. The Chevy Volt had another leading month, finishing in first place with 1,820 units sold; that compares with the No. 2 Tesla Model S, finishing at about 1,700 units sold. For hybrid vehicles, the Toyota Prius Liftback took its first position back from the Ford Fusion Hybrid but both vehicles have sold at nearly the same totals so far in 2017.
  3. EPA likely to issue revised fuel economy: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is expected to reverse course this week on the 2022-25 phase of the fuel economy and emissions standards. The unexpected decision made by the agency at the very end of the Obama administration to approve the proposal and cut short the public comment period has been a source of tension with automaker executives and Washington officials. Last week, auto trade groups representing Ford, General Motors, Honda, Toyota, Volkswagen, and others asked recently approved EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt to withdraw the Obama administration’s decision to finalize the rule in January. That had cut short the timing for giving public comments, which was originally supposed to go until April 2018. They would also like to see the rule become more favorable to automakers than what was finalized under the Obama administration. The EPA notice coming out soon is expected to state that the agency will work in tandem with the U.S. Transportation Department to set consistent standards in the ruling, a source said.
  4. Trouble keeping Tesla’s talent: Pressure to get the Tesla Model 3 out on time has led to tough working conditions at the company – and exodus of management. CFO Jason Wheeler’s  departure, just 15 months after he joined Tesla from Google, will be the latest in a round of executives leaving the company. Former execs speaking confidentially said it has to do with long work hours prepping for high-volume production and a tense working environment that reflects the persona of CEO Elon Musk. Of course, setting up shop in Silicon Valley is known to run the risk of high-churnover rate. A Tesla spokesman said the company’s attrition rate was below average among technology companies.
  5. Uber facing heavy criticism: Uber is feeling a “blowback” over the aggressive fighter approach taken by CEO Travis Kalanick and its corporate culture, with the latest being an apology sent to staff by Kalanick over a conflict he’d engaged in with an Uber driver captured on video. Kalanick and others at the ride-hailing giant are known for plunging into new markets around the world, price-war fighting Lyft and overseas competitors, and taking on lofty goals like deploying self-driving and flying cars. The company had been hit hard by news coverage and social media posts leading to Kalanick quitting President Donald Trump’s economic advisory panel over the immigration ban; having a female engineer protest over alleged sexual harassment; being sued by Alphabet’s Waymo over claims its self-driving car’s intellectual property had been stolen; and using a tool called “Greyball” used to fool regulators into thinking the company is not providing ride services in markets where it’s not supposed to be operating. Lyft, its toughest U.S. competitor, is quietly looking to raise $500 million in funding to expand; smaller ridesharing companies such as Juno are able to take advantage of frustration over pay to poach Uber drivers. “I must fundamentally change as a leader and grow up,” Kalanick, wrote in a note to Uber employees last week. “This is the first time I’ve been willing to admit that I need leadership help and I intend to get it.”
  6. What will happen to Ampera-e?: The future of the Opel Amera-e, built on the Chevrolet Bolt platform, is up in the air now that General Motors has sold its stake in the Opel/Vauxhall subsidiary to French automaker PSA Group. The $2.3 billion dollar sale will make PSA the second-largest automaker in Europe. PSA will gain intellectual property licenses from GM as vehicles transition over to PSA platforms. It may be that the originally planned launch of the Bolt as the Ampera-e in Europe will stick to that plan and roll out later this year. Green Car Congress reports that GM and PSA expect they will collaborate on further deployment of electrification technologies. PSA may also source long-term supply of fuel cell systems from the GM/Honda joint venture.
  7. Maven lengthens sharing time: General Motors’ Maven carsharing division has launched a four-week rental plan through a program its calling Maven Reserve; that adds to its previous longest rentals by 24 days. Carsharing members in Los Angeles and San Francisco can now schedule rental of a Chevrolet Volt or a Chevrolet Tahoe for an hourly, daily, or monthly fee, the company said on Friday. Markets being aimed at include entertainment industry people in L.A. and entrepreneurs in San Francisco. It’s expected to expand later to other markets.
  8. Workplace charging in NYC: Calstart yesterday launched “Charge to Work,” a first-of-its-kind electric vehicle workplace charging initiative to increase the adoption of EVs in the New York City area. It’s a three-year marketing and outreach campaign seeking to bring support from over 100 businesses that will encourage their employees to replace their conventional gasoline-engine vehicles with clean and efficient EVs. Announced by New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, Charge to Work supports the governor’s Charge NY program, which is accelerating the growth of the electric vehicle market in New York State through education, research, consumer outreach and financial support for the installation of charging stations across New York. The goal is to spur 450 electric vehicles (EVs) and the installation of 132 Level 2 EV charging ports.
  9. 2,150 PHEV pickups sold: Workhorse Group Inc. is now working with Clean Fuels Ohio to bring 500 units of the W-15 Plug-In Electric Pickup trucks to Ohio-based fleets. The company says that, overall, it has received Letters of Intent for 2,150 units of its upcoming plug-in hybrid pickups. The company has received LOIs from Duke Energy, Portland General Electric, the City of Orlando, Southern California Public Power Authority, Clean Fuels Ohio, and one other utility. The company currently builds medium-duty PHEV work vans for several fleet companies including FedEx, Penske, UPS, Ryder, DHL, USPS, and more.
  10. Lucid Air details: During a recent test drive, startup Lucid Motors revealed more details on its upcoming luxury electric car, the Lucid Air. The starting price is $165,000 for the Launch Edition, in which 255 units will be made in 2019. That one gets a 130 kWh battery pack that can carry the car about 400 miles. After that, the Air will see production scaled up to build a cheaper edition. That one will have a 100 kWh battery with about 300 miles of range. Before any of these electric cars roll out, the Lucid will have to put in place its $700 million production plant in Casa Grande, Ariz., which is slated to start production in 2018.

This Week’s Top 10: Hybrid and EV sales down from September, Bolt production starts up

by Jon LeSage, editor and publisher, Green Auto Market

Here’s my take on the 10 most significant and interesting occurrences during the past week…….

  1. 2016 Chevrolet VoltHybrid and EV sales: Hybrid and plug-in sales followed the overall market, which has been down over the past three months. Hybrid sales in October were down 15.3% from September and 13.1% from October 2015. Plug-in hybrid and battery electric car sales were down 29.36% from September, but were up 13.47% over October 2015. The Chevy Volt and Ford Fusion Energi led plug-in hybrid sales. Tesla saw a sizable drop in sales that may been affected by Tesla slowing down production to enable new autonomous technology hardware. Sales in November and December are expected to go back up as Tesla works hard at hitting quarterly sales goals.
  2. Building the Bolt: General Motors has started production of the all-electric Chevrolet Bolt at its assembly plant in Orion Township, near Detroit. The first of the electric cars capable of going 238 miles on a charge will show up for sales before the end of the year, the automaker said. Badged as the Opel Ampera-e in Europe, the new model is due to be launched in European markets next year.
  3. Toyota long-range EVs: Toyota Motor Corp. may be joining the race for long-range electric cars, according to the Nikkei.  The automaker is exploring mass-producing battery electric cars that would hit the market by 2020, the Japanese news report said. In late October, Toyota said it has worked with Panasonic Corp., which also produces lithium ion batteries with Tesla, to improve the precision in battery cell assembly and extend range. This new battery technology will roll out soon in the soon-to-be-launched Prius Prime plug-in hybrid electric vehicle. That plug-in hybrid will go 37.3 miles on battery alone before the gasoline engine takes over; the new battery technology may go into all-electric, extended range cars, too.
  4. Uber and Maven: Uber announced it will be partnering with General Motors’ new carsharing service, Maven. Uber drivers will be able to rent GM vehicles on a weekly basis. GM and Uber will be in a 90-day pilot where drivers will be able to rent GM vehicles for $179 plus taxes and fees per week. That was a bit surprising given that Uber’s main competitor, Lyft, now has a partnership with GM. A similar program, called Express Drive, had been started up for Lyft drivers and operates in about 10 U.S. cities. Alliances between automakers and mobility services continue to expand this year, including Toyota and Uber; Toyota and Getaround; and Volkswagen and Gett.
  5. LA Auto Show: The Los Angeles Auto Show is launching a pre-car show segment for media and industry professionals called AutoMobility LA. Taking place Nov. 14-17, and to the general public Nov. 18-28 at the LA Convention Center, the latest technology devices will be displayed that embrace all forms of transportation and complement new and traditional vehicles. Located in the South Hall Atrium, “GO” features the latest smart mobility devices that can include electric scooters, bikes, or mobility apps. Also keep in mind that the annual Green Car of the Year award winner will be named on Thursday, Nov. 17 at the Technology Pavilion at LA Auto Show.
  6. Free Tesla charging ending for new owners: Tesla owners had been able to fast charge for free for the past four years, using Tesla’s Supercharger Network. Drivers had access to free charging at a worldwide network of 4,600 chargers. That will come to an end soon as the company adopts a “change to the economics of Supercharging.” Cars ordered vehicles before January 1 and delivered before April 1, 2017, still will have free access to Superchargers. Customers who order after Jan. 1 will receive 400 kilowatt-hours – about 1,000 miles – of free charging credits annually, then will pay a fee “less than the price of filling up a comparable gas car,” the company said. Upcoming Model 3 owners won’t have access to free charging, CEO Elon Musk said during a shareholders meeting in May.
  7. VW scandal continues: Volkswagen AG’s chairman Hans Dieter Pötsch has been added to the list of executives under investigation over fraudulent emissions reporting. The chair and former chief financial officer is suspected by German prosecutors of violating securities laws, especially failing to notify shareholders quickly enough about the financial risks of the scandal. German prosecutors have been at work on plea agreements with other executives; and former CEO Martin Winterkorn and board member Herbert Diess have been under investigation for failing to disclose information.
  8. Gas and diesel engines waning: Internal combustion engines (ICEs) may be heading toward the end of their shelf lives, according to a Lux Research study. Governments may one day make them illegal and ICEs may be priced out of the market, according to the study. Netherlands has considered banning ICEs by 2025, with a similar debate starting in Norway. India would like to see 100% of new car sales go to something other than ICEs by 2030. Germany’s legislature is also considering a total ban by 2030. The study says that ICEs may actually decline earlier than government mandates push for. EVs are getting cheaper by the year, thanks to improving batteries and mass production. ICEs are getting more expensive, due to tougher fuel efficiency regulations that require more complex and pricier engineering like 10-speed rather than five-speed transmissions, double- and triple-turbocharging, and other new and costly technologies.
  9. Wrightspeed extended range trash trucks: Wrightspeed rolled out what is says was the first commercial application of a range-extended electric refuse truck last week. Through its partner company, The Ratto Group, in Sonoma County, Calif., Wrigtspeed’s turbine-electric powertrain will be placed in at least 15 vehicles deployed into the trash hauling company’s fleet over the next year. With fuel economy up to about 7 mpg in combined electricity-liquid fuel operation, the powertrain can slash annual fuel consumption by 70 percent or more compared with the average diesel garbage truck, Wrightspeed said.
  10. Lutz on autonomous vehicles: Bob Lutz, former vice chair at General Motors and champion of the Chevy Volt, thinks that fully autonomous vehicles are 15 to 25 years away. Lutz expressed his views during the annual awards dinner of the Michigan Venture Capital Association. His vision for the future is different than Google’s and several automakers. Cars will be replaced by “modules” that will look like telephone booths laid down, and electronically linked in a seamless train on the freeway moving at 200 to 250 mph. They’ll be powered by inductive electrical rails in the freeway, Lutz said.

This Week’s Top 10: September plug-in sales, $200K ticket to Mars with SpaceX

Here’s my take on the 10 most significant and interesting occurrences during the past week…….

  1. 2016 Chevrolet VoltSeptember sales: The Chevy Volt continues to be the best selling plug-in hybrid, by far, on the market with 2,031 units sold in the U.S. during September. At 16,326 Volts so far this year, there’s a thin chance it could catch up to 2013’s 23,094 units sold, if not also 2012’s 23,461. The Volt redesign seems to have taken off very well. The all-electric Nissan Leaf saw its first increase in year-over-year sales since December 2014. In September, there were 1,316 Leafs sold, a 5.5% improvement over September 2015. Tesla Motors just reported its third quarter deliveries, which were up 70% over the second quarter. Of the 25,185 units sold and delivered during the third quarter, 15,800 were Model S and 8,700 were Model X. For September sales, one estimate shows the Model S and Model X well ahead of the Chevy Volt and all other plug-ins sold in the U.S.
  2. Ticket to Mars: Elon Musk gave a speech last week topping the Gigafactory and Hyperloop announcements. As SpaceX chief, he spoke last week at the 67th annual International Astronautical Congress in Guadalajara, Mexico. Once the company’s Interplanetary Transport System is fully operational, he estimates that a person will be able to travel to Mars for about $200,000 – much cheaper than the $10 billion it would cost you to buy a rocket that you fly to the red planet. One hundred passengers will ride to Mars with 42 Raptor engines, carbon fiber fuel tanks, reusable rockets, and other features. Musk was making the pitch to gain financial backing from current client NASA and others attending the event.
  3. Uber and Otto: Self-driving truck startup Otto talked about its strategy now that ride-hailing giant Uber owns the new company. Uber plans to make Otto the leader in self-driving truck technologies in freight hauling. The ride-hailing company has started the process of selling services directly to shippers, trucks fleets, and independent truck drivers. Otto is expanding its fleet from six to 15 trucks, and is bringing in independent truckers to manage the trips. Those freight hauling trips will start next year with deliveries to warehouses and stores. Uber made the acquisition in August for an estimated $680 million. It ties into Uber’s strategy of developing self-driving car systems through its Pittsburgh test drive project.
  4. Lyft drivers getting Bolts: Lyft drivers will be the first to receive key fobs for their Chevy Bolt when it arrives at dealerships later this year. “Drivers on the Lyft platform will be receiving Bolts to drive first,” said Emily Castor, Lyft’s director of transportation. Castor spoke last week at the World Mobility Leadership Forum at Metro Airport in Detroit. Ride-hailing service Lyft links riders with about 315,000 contractor drivers in about 200 U.S. cities. General Motors and Lyft created the Express Drive rental program for Lyft drivers earlier this year after GM’s $500 million investment in the company. Express Drive offers Lyft drivers the opportunity to rent the GMC Terrain, Chevrolet Equinox, Malibu, Volt and, by the end of this year, the 2017 Bolt EV.
  5. First driver’s license for autonomous vehicle: Nevada last week granted the first autonomous vehicle-related driver’s license to Sam Schmidt, a former race car driver and The state granted Schmidt a license to drive a semi-autonomous test car on public roads under restricted conditions. Earlier this year, Schmidt drove more than 150 mph in the Arrow SAM Car during demonstration laps at the Indy 500. Arrow Electronics designed the SAM car for Schmidt in 2014, and they worked together to get the state to revise regulations allowing Schmidt to drive on roads in addition to race tracks. Schmidt used to be a race car driver, but lost his ability to drive years ago during a near-fatal speedway crash. Schmidt is able to control the car, a modified Corvette Z06, using his voice, head, and breath to steer, accelerate, and brake.
  6. No price cutting: Tesla CEO Elon Musk sent out an email to employees last week asking them to stop offering discounts to drive up sales numbers for the Model S and Model X. Discounts are appropriate for when for Tesla vehicles that had been used in test drives or that were damaged before delivery, he said. Musk asked them to stay away from price cutting and to adhere to a sales approach he called “fundamental to our integrity.”
  7. USPS test project: The U.S. Postal Service has identified six “prime suppliers” that will be producing 50 prototype vehicles from which a Next Generation Delivery Vehicle (NGDV) will be chosen. The companies are: AM General, Mahindra, Oshkosh, Utilimaster, VT Hackney, and Karsan. The new prime suppliers’ contracts total $37.4 million in business. It may lead to an electric or hybrid design, according to recent reports and USPS.
  8. DMV supports fully autonomous: The California Department of Motor Vehicles revised its recommended policy on fully autonomous vehicles. While the agency had supported having steering wheels and pedals in autonomous vehicles for drivers to take over in case emergency conditions came up, that policy recommendation has changed. DMV revised draft regulations that the most advanced self-driving cars would no longer be required to have a licensed driver if federal officials deem them safe enough.
  9. Report on mobility services: Navigant Research released a report examining trends associated with emerging mobility services most likely to influence the future transportation market, including automated systems and shared vehicle services. A nexus of trends related to emerging mobility services is converging to influence the future transportation market: autonomous vehicles, the consumer shift, multimodal integration solutions, and urban versus rural/suburban population distribution. From parking habits to the number of vehicles in operation, these trends and related factors will have far ranging effects on the transportation landscape, according to Navigant Research.
  10. Testing e-trikes: UPS is testing electric-assist cargo tricycles and several other clean transportation and alternative fuel options in various scenarios around the world as part of a “rolling laboratory” project. The company is looking to resolve a serious challenge: how to keep up with the boom in e-commerce while at the same time reducing its impact on the environment. The e-trikes have a range of 21 miles and a top speed of 15 miles per hour and ample cargo capacity, They’re ideal for narrow European streets, but UPS customers in Portland, Ore., will soon see drivers pedaling around their neighborhoods in a similar model.

This Week’s Top 10: EV sales up nearly 60% over last year, Wanxiang seeking permission to build EVs in China

by Jon LeSage, editor and publisher, Green Auto Market

Here’s my take on the 10 most significant and interesting occurrences during the past week…….

  1. EV salesEV sales up 59%: Sales of battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in July shot up about 59% over a year ago, with the Chevy Volt leading the pack, according to HybridCars.com’s Dashboard. EV sales were up 3.7% over June. The Volt sold 2,406 units in the U.S. in July – 24.2% over June and 83.2% over July 2015. It only had a slight lead over the Tesla Model S, which was estimated to have sold 2,400 units in that month. The Tesla Model X estimate came in at third with 1,500 sold, but that was down 25% from the previous month. The BMW i3 had a leap in sales over June with 1,479 sold – 143.3% over June and 58.2% over the previous year. Hybrid sales saw a gain over June, up 17.8%, but were down 8.5% over June 2015. The Toyota RAV4 hybrid was up about 25% over June, and the Ford Fusion Hybrid has been doing very well with 38.4% over June and 63.1% over July 2015.
  2. Building Karmas in China: Wanxiang Group, the owner of Karma Automotive, has applied for a license in China to build plug-in hybrids on the Fisker Karma platform. The Chinese auto parts supplier is one of several non-automakers entering the electric car market in China as the government offers manufacturers incentives for building the cars and to consumers for buying them under the “new-energy vehicles” plan. In the U.S., Karma Automotive is setting up a marketing campaign modeled after Tesla’s corporate-owned store model and Fisker Automotive’s previous concept of creating a network of luxury franchised dealers. Starting in September in Orange County, Calif., with the launch of the Revero four-dour coupe, Karma will show the first of its “brand experience centers” similar to a Tesla retail store.
  3. Clinton supporting RFS: The Hillary Clinton campaign has dismissed a media report that it’s supporting California’s low-carbon fuel standard model over the federal biofuels blend in the Renewable Fuel Standard. Republican candidate Donald Trump has also been said to support RFS. “As Hillary Clinton said repeatedly during the primary, she is committed to getting the RFS back on track and making sure the US remains a leader in advanced biofuels,” said Tyrone Gayle, a Clinton campaign spokesperson. “While we have engaged a wide range of stakeholders and experts throughout the campaign on biofuels and other issues, we do not support replacing the RFS with a national low-carbon fuel standard.”
  4. Krafcik on Tesla crash: John Krafcik, CEO of Google Self-Driving Car Project, was interviewed by Bloomberg on several big topics, including the fatal Tesla crash using the Autopilot semi-autonomous system. Krafcik brings his years of experience in product development at Ford and serving as CEO at Hyundai Motor America. He’s one of several auto executives now on the Google team, he said. To start off, Krafcik said it’s important to keep in mind that the Tesla with Autopilot wasn’t a self-driving car; or Level 4 (L4) in the federal guidelines for autonomous vehicles, which is called Full Self-Driving Automation. “That was a car with traffic-aware cruise control and a lane-keeping function – an L2, where, for better or worse, it was the responsibility of the driver to be cautious,” he said. “We, as humans, are fallible creatures. [The crash] confirms our sense that the route to full autonomy, though much harder, is the right route.”
  5. Tesla Motors quarterly report: Tesla Motors Inc. reported its 13th straight quarterly loss to shareholders. Revenue shot up 33% during the quarter ending June 30 to $1.27 billion from rising sales of its Model S and Model X. The cost of ramping up production has taken its toll, and delivery has been behind schedule. Tesla reported last month that it had missed its delivery target for the second consecutive quarter, raising doubts that it would hit its annual target. The company’s net loss widened to $293.2 million in the second quarter, from $184.2 million a year earlier.
  6. GM EV1 chief hired: Faraday Future has brought over the head of General Motors’ EV1 program from the 1990s. Peter Savagian, the former electric propulsion chief, at GM has been hired by Faraday to lead the powertrain development of its first production model. Electrek reported on after seeing it on LinkedIn, where Savagian lists himself as Faraday Future’s vice president for engineering and says he will “lead engineering operations for powertrain, battery and related high voltage systems.”
  7. Clean transportation growth in California: A new Calstart report indicates that California’s climate and energy policies are not only helping to protect the environment and improve air quality, but are also helping to accelerate growth of the clean transportation technology industry in the state. The report profiles the development of a burgeoning manufacturing sector that is producing zero- and near-zero emission light, medium and heavy duty vehicles, as well as clean fuels, engines, vehicle components, and new mobility services.
  8. GNA supports sustainability at Port of LA: Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti last month announced the formation of a new advisory board to help reduce carbon emissions and guide sustainable growth at the Port of Los Angeles. Gladstein, Neandross & Associates (GNA) worked with the Port and the Mayor’s office to identify, invite and confirm participation of a diverse collection of committee members including, environmental, labor, industry, government, and community leaders. The 10-member Sustainable Freight Advisory Committee will work to advance sustainable policy and expand the use of zero-emission technology at the largest container port in the nation.
  9. CAR study on urban mobility: The Center for Automotive Research released a report at the Management Briefing Seminars concluding that ride hailing services such as Uber and Lyft could transform worldwide transportation, but don’t expect car sales and transportation to change dramatically in the U.S. Millennials and some baby boomers in U.S. cities are proving to be early adopters for services such as carsharing, ride-hailing/ridesharing and even bike-sharing, CAR says. But Americans in less densely populated suburbs and rural areas will continue to rely on traditional car ownership. CAR forecasts carsharing programs will attract 3.8 million users and nearly 51,000 vehicles in 2021, up from 1.6 million users in 2014.
  10. What GM thinks about shared rides: General Motors sees demand for ridesharing and carsharing growing 95% in the next two years, Julia Steyn, GM’s vice president of urban mobility programs said at the CAR Management Briefing Seminars in Traverse City, Mich. Steyn said customers of Maven, GM’s personal mobility brand, have driven more than five million miles since the its January launch with acceptance from customers going strong. “The whole idea of owning a car, parking it for $1,000 a month and letting it sit there 90 percent of the time is just ludicrous,” Steyn said.