Making crowdfunding work for your clean transportation and cleantech startup

Making Crowdfunding Work

This Week’s Top 10: GM unveils the Bolt crossover and Volt redesign, More news from the Detroit Auto Show

by Jon LeSage, editor and publisher, Green Auto Market 

Here’s my take on the 10 most significant and interesting occurrences during the past week…….

  1. Chevrolet Bolt conceptThe Detroit Auto Show opened with a bang for Chevrolet as it announced the Bolt electric crossover and the redesigned 2016 Volt. Rumors about General Motors working on a crossover version of the Volt have been fairly accurate – only it has a different name and it will be all-electric, not a plug-in hybrid like the Volt. The Chevrolet Bolt is expected to roll out in 2017 and compete directly with the Tesla Model X electric crossover. General Motors says the Bolt should get 200 miles per charge and will sell for about $30,000 with the federal tax incentive; and it will play a big role in strengthening its leadership role in electrified transportation. (See photo of the Bolt concept car.) The 2016 Chevy Volt was revamped to address needed improvements, including quieting the engine, improving performance and adding space to the interior. It will also deliver a lot more range – an estimated 50 miles per charge instead of its current range of 38 miles.
  2. More from Detroit Auto Show: Winners of the North American Car and Truck of the Year awards were the Volkswagen Golf “family” (which will include all-electric and clean diesel versions) and the Ford F-150 and its lightweight aluminum body and improved fuel efficiency. Mercedes debuted its new plug-in hybrid, the C350. Daimler AG chairman Dieter Zetsche downplayed fuel economy in these days of cheap gasoline and focused on performance – zero to 60 in 5.9 second, sports-car like handling, and the ability to reach a top speed of 130. The Nissan Leaf may more than double its output in its next version – up to 200 miles on a single charge. Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn unofficially made this comment following a media briefing.
  3. Nissan is working with NASA on a five-year project to enable autonomous vehicles. By the end of this year, a fleet of Nissan Leafs will be tested to use hardware and software jointly developed by Nissan and NASA. Testing will take place at Nissan’s Silicon Valley Research Center and NASA’s Ames Research Center in Moffett Field, Calif.
  4. California Gov. Jerry Brown raised the bar again during his State of the State address last week. Gasoline consumption should be reduced by 50% over the next 15 years, 50% of the state’s electricity supply should be powered by renewables by 2030, and energy efficiency should be doubled in existing buildings. Brown, at age 76, just started his fourth and final term as California’s governor and wants to see the state heighten its role in the fight against global warning.
  5. Solar-powered electric car Stella has been nominated by TechCrunch as one of the five biggest Technology Achievements for its upcoming 8th annual “Crunchies Awards.” Stella is up against an impressive list of contenders — Apple Pay, The Block Chain (Bitcoin), Rosetta Mission’s Comet Landing, and SpaceX Lateral Booster. Stella, created by Solar Team Eindhoven from the Eindhoven (Netherlands) University of Technology, has been widely recognized and is gaining support. Stella took first place in the 2013 Michelin Cruiser class at the World Solar Challenge race in Australia. Partners include National Drive Electric Week, Plug In America, and the Coast to Coast EV Connection project. The team calls it the “world’s first solar-powered family car.”
  6. Pope Francis is expected to issue an “encyclical” outlining the Catholic Church’s stance on climate change. It will likely reinforce the church’s strong stance with concern over climate change and its impact on the planet and its population. This has been gaining a wave of media coverage and social media mentions for its symbolism. The leader of the Catholic Church with its 1.2 billion members is joining ranks with most of the world’s leading scientists – uniting religious and moral issues with science, at least on the global warming question.
  7. Here comes the fastest electric car………. The Detroit Electric sports car is moving forward and will soon be built at a new facility in Leamington Spa in England. Detroit Electric is shooting for building the world’s fastest electric car that will hit 60 mph in a mere 3.7 seconds and is powered by a 285-hp electric motor. It’s being built on the chassis of the Lotus Elise, the same as the now-discontinued version of the original Tesla Roadster. While still calling itself Detroit Electric, the company had to move out of that hometown overseas to England last year.
  8. Car-sharing company car2go, will be launching its service in China. That will happen in the Chinese metro market of Chongqing within the next year, and will involve a fleet of several hundred Smart Fortwo small cars. The subsidiary of Daimler AG says it now has 12,500 vehicles operating in 29 locations and serving over one million customers in Europe and North America.
  9. RIN prices have doubledRenewable Identification Number (RIN) prices have recently doubled year-over-year in all three reported categories – biomass-based diesel, advanced biofuel, and renewable fuel. They’re still about 30% below the peak period during the summer of 2013, commonly referred to as “RINsanity.” High RIN prices are expected to shield biofuel producers from falling oil prices, while refiner profits will be cut into by high RIN expenses if RIN prices remain high.
  10. So who will be the dominant force behind self-driving cars? Google or Daimler? Mercedes played it up at the Consumer Electronics Show showing off its “F 015 Luxury in Motion” concept car with its futuristic metallic exterior, swiveling seats to support face-to-face passenger conversations, and touch screens every passenger could access. Daimler CEO Dieter Zetsche said that this Mercedes-Benz will provide an escape from the crowded urban environment of the future.

So who is actually leading the EV sales race – the Leaf or the Model S?

Tesla Model S vs. Nissan LeafIf you had read “This Week’s Top 10” a week ago in Green Auto Market, you might have assumed that the Nissan Leaf took top spot in US electric vehicle (EV) sales during December. It’s possible that the Leaf didn’t take the No. 1 sales spot – it may have been the Tesla Model S. It depends on who you ask.

Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk did not want to give out the December sales number for the Model S while in Detroit to speak at the auto show – though the company had given out that number a year ago at the Detroit Auto Show.

Tesla Motors doesn’t provide monthly sales figures like all the rest of the automakers do. Those sales numbers come through its quarterly earnings reports; its fourth quarter 2014 numbers will be released in early February; and will be for the quarter without monthly numbers. However, as mentioned in a few articles last week, Tesla may have beat Nissan – and those figures come from the Inside EVs publication and its monthly reporting. Stock market analyst service MarketWatch reported that the Model S became the best-selling electric car in the US during December 2014, beating the Leaf for the first time. Selling 3,500 units last month beat out the Leaf sales figure of 3,102 units.

When you look at the Inside EVs chart for December, the footnote on the Tesla number reads, ”Estimated Tesla NA Sales Numbers – Reconciled on Quarterly Totals from Earnings Report (Q1 Sales reported @ 6,457-3,000 Intl Delivers, Q2 7,579 total-approx reported International registrations, Q3 7,785 total deliveries ~ 3,900 US).” Where is that fourth quarter estimate coming from? Who knows. Maybe the publication gets some of that information from Tesla – or they know a stock market analyst who does.

There’s another figure much lower than that reported by Inside EVsHybridCars.com and its sales reporting partner Baum & Associates said that the Leaf sold 3,102 units in the US and that there were 1,900 of the Model S units delivered. That’s a very wide gap from the 3,500 reported by Inside EVs.

Green Auto Market – Extended Edition, the monthly subscription-based version of this newsletter, uses the HybridCars.com and Baum and Associates figures. Those figures have been reported longer than any other sales data, and Baum & Associates is respected in the industry for its expertise on alternative/clean vehicle reporting; HybridCars.com has done a very good job reporting on hybrids and EVs for several years.

In the end, HybridCars.com, Baum & Associates, Inside EVs, and other sources have different numbers on sales of the Tesla Model S. One thing is for sure: whether the Leaf or Model S came in first place, battery electric vehicles are beating extended range/plug-in hybrid vehicles in monthly US sales. Why might that be? Here are a few of my thoughts on that question:

  • Very impressive product. If you’ve ever driven a Leaf or Model S, you’re likely to have been impressed by their performance and handling.
  • The range is enough for now. You can go about 84 miles on the Leaf after a full charge, and up to 300 miles on the Model S (depending on which version of the Model S you’re driving). Most drivers are using these cars for daily commutes and short trips and know how to charge them everywhere – and usually do so. Range anxiety isn’t as much of an issue for them as it is for plug-in hybrid drivers, and for consumers and fleets just thinking about getting an EV.
  • Leasing makes EVs more affordable. Leasing has made EVs more attractive for car shoppers. Tesla has created its own “guaranteed buy back” program and Nissan, Chevrolet, BMW, and other automakers are offering their own competitive lease packages. That’s helping get first-time EV buyers into EVs of all types.

Energy storage holds huge potential for makers and owners of electric vehicles

energy storageFor those of you following the cleantech business, you’ve probably noticed an emerging market segment in the past year: energy storage. There’s a lot of demand for clean energy to be produced – along with ways to store that energy for when it’s needed through an economically feasible business model. Electric automakers have gotten into that market – and we’re likely to see electric vehicles added to energy storage potential.

California Gov. Jerry Brown called for 50% of California’s electricity to come from renewables by 2030 in his “State of the State” address last week. That’s up from former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s 20% and his own previous 33% mandate for renewable energy. Utilities in the state – and in several others in the US – have been investing in energy storage to address renewable energy mandates and to better manage their grids. Energy storage has become “a powerful and appealing alternative to upgrading grid infrastructure to solve these challenges,” according to Navigant Research.

Demand and price can swing up and down over a 24-hour period, causing uproar from residential and commercial property owners – and from state regulatory agencies. Utilities are exploring batteries for energy storage as a way to bring stability to peak periods and to move forward on renewable energy mandates.

Solar power companies are getting into the game. In its new study, “The Future of Solar-Plus-Storage in the U.S,” GTM Research reports that four of the nation’s top 10 residential solar installers currently offer “solar plus” energy storage. These four companies, including top installer SolarCity and fifth-ranked NRG Home Solar, installed 38% of all US solar energy in the first three quarters of 2014.

If you look at the first chart in this article, you’ll see three automakers identified as part of the energy storage market: Tesla Motors; Chinese automaker BYD; and the company that used to be known as CODA Automotive that is out of the electric vehicle business, post-bankruptcy, and is now CODA Energy – an energy storage systems company. These automakers have also sold their EV battery technology to other automakers and to clientele in other industries.

There’s a good deal of speculation out there that electric vehicles (EVs) could be viable energy storage containers. That could come from a fleet with 150 EVs parked on its corporate campus for long stretches of time; on average, those EVs might be in motion only one quarter of a 24-hour cycle, bringing huge opportunities for power storage. That could be a revenue stream for company, and a support system for renewable energy and grid stabilization.

Other examples of available parked EVs could come from transit station parking lots, retail stores, and apartment/condo complexes. Lithium and NextGen batteries are still expensive and underutilized – energy storage has great potential for key stakeholders out there.

This Week’s Top 10: Leaf reaches another sales benchmark, GM Ventures backs fuel efficient startup technology

by Jon LeSage, editor and publisher, Green Auto Market 

Here’s my take on the 10 most significant and interesting occurrences during the past week…….

  1. Nissan Leaf sales successLeaf takes the top spot. Not long ago, cleantech analysts thought plug-in hybrids would dominate the US market over battery electric vehicles. Yet, the Nissan Leaf continues to hold the top spot and just reached another benchmark – 30,200 units sold in the US last year, a new record. That makes for a total of 72,322 sold in the US since the launch in December 2010 through the end of 2014. The Leaf leads a market trend where three of the leading electric models are now selling over 1,000 units a month in the US, with the Chevrolet Volt and Tesla Model S following right behind. During some months in the past, other models have surpassed the 1,000 mark – the Toyota Prius Plug-In, Ford C-Max Energi, and the Ford Fusion Energi.
  2. GM Ventures backs another startup. General Motors plans to increase fuel economy on some of its models up to 15% using a new cylinder deactivation technology. Dynamic Skip Fire, or DSF, ignition system technology integrates advanced digital signal processing and software; the cylinders are programmed to only fire and deliver performance as the driver needs, saving on fuel. DSF is being developed by Tula Technology, Inc; that company received funding from GM Ventures in 2012. GM Ventures, led by Jon Lauckner, GM’s VP of global R&D, has lead investments in about 20 start-up advanced vehicle technology companies. (Read more about the role GM Ventures and others are doing in clean transportation funding in a special feature for this week.)
  3. Connected cars take lead at CES. Those attending Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas starting today will get to see that connected cars with advanced technologies are cooler this year than video games. Ford CEO Mark Fields will be delivering a keynote speech on the dawn of the connected car era. Daimler CEO Dieter Zetsche will be speaking about a self-driving Mercedes-Benz model. Volkswagen is making its debut at CES and will be joined by industry colleagues Toyota, General Motors, Hyundai, Mazda, Audi, BMW, and FCA US LLC (which was not long ago known as Chrysler Group).
  4. Bad news for workaholics: Starting up and running an electric carmaker and space flight company might mean you can’t stay married. Tesla CEO Elon Musk filed for divorce on New Year’s Eve for the second time with British actress Talulah Riley. They’d married in 2010, divorced, and remarried in 2013. That followed a previous marriage with five children (including triplets) to Canadian-born science fiction writer Justine Musk. It sounds like that divorce in 2010 wasn’t as friendly as the latest two with Talulah Riley, as would be assumed. (Editor’s Note: Watch the 2011 film “Revenge of the Electric Car” if you want to catch a glimpse of Musk’s previous family life.)
  5. Diesel is still a bit pricy: Natural gas vehicle sales have been feeling the impact of gasoline prices coming down strong in the past six months. Natural gas has a better shot at competing directly with diesel-powered trucks, according to Erik Neandross, CEO of Gladstein, Neandross & Associates (GNA), a consulting firm and organizer of ACT Expo. National average pricing for diesel has been staying around $3.40 to $3.50 per gallon – “by no means a bargain,” Neandross said during a recent webinar.
  6. OEMs haven’t abandoned EVs: Automotive News doesn’t see automakers walking away from electric vehicles (EVs) as gasoline prices continue to stay down. The investment in the technology continues……. GM is rolling out its NextGen Chevrolet Volt (read all about it in a feature for this week); the automaker also plans to roll out an electric 2017 Chevrolet Sonic. Volkswagen invested in a 5% stake in Silicon Valley-based battery developer QuantumScape Corp., with its stable solid state battery technology. Nissan claims that it will roll out a second-generation battery that will double the range of the Leaf from its present EPA estimated 84 mile maximum. Tesla Motors is moving forward on its “gigafactory,” recently starting recruitment of its first 300 workers for its Sparks, Nev., facility.
  7. Clean Energy sells its stake in biomethane company. Clean Energy Fuels Corp., based in Newport Beach, Calif., has sold its majority stake in a Dallas-based biomethane production facility to a minority owner for $40.6 million. The sale goes to Cambrian Energy Development LLC, based in Los Angeles, which has been a partner with Clean Energy since 2008. At that times the two companies jointly acquired the McCommas Bluff facility, the third-largest landfill gas operation in the US.
  8. Porsche marketing chief loves plug-in hybrids. Bernhard Maier, Porsche’s global sales and marketing executive, is getting a kick out of driving a Porsche Panamera and Cayenne to work each day. He’s able to stay almost entirely on electric power during his 25 mile trip. He’s becoming a true believer in plug-in hybrids – one of the reasons is enjoying the convenience of having your own filling station at home or the office
  9. Toyota opening up on hydrogen technology. Toyota Motor Corp. said it won’t be enforcing more than 5,600 patents it holds on its hydrogen fuel-cell technology through 2020. Competitors are free to use that technology, which falls in line with steps taken last year by Tesla Motors to encourage carmakers to tap into its battery technologies to spur adoption of battery electric vehicles.
  10. ChargePoint rolls out home charging system. Campbell, Calif.-based ChargePoint is now offering what it calls the “world’s most attractive and advanced EV charging station.” ChargePoint Home offers speed, convenience, and intelligence to EV drivers. Drivers will be able to charge up to 25 miles per hour and easily manage the charger from their smartphone. It’s being displayed at booth #2815 at the Las Vegas Convention Center as part of the Consumer Electronics Show.

Two funding sources that make the most sense for clean transportation startups

crowdfunding investorsFor those of you reading this article that are working for startups – or for major companies looking to dive into advanced vehicle technologies and infrastructures – there are five types of funding sources to consider tapping into:

  1. Government grants and low-interest loans
  2. Overseas investors
  3. Private equity and venture capital
  4. Green bonds
  5. Crowdfunding

So let’s take a brief look at each type – and two of them that present substantial opportunities in 2015 for both startups and large companies………

Government Grants and Low-interest Loans:
As you probably know, the US Dept. of Energy’s Clean Cities coalitions lead the way on gaining access to federal and state grants and low-interest loans. If you haven’t already done so, become active with your local Clean Cities coalition. Automakers and their suppliers have tapped into low-interest loans through the federal Advanced Research Projects Agency – Energy (ARPA-E). State programs are particularly strong in California, and most other states have some grant funding and incentive programs in place. California Energy Commission continues to be the most significant state funding source, with South Coast Air Quality Management District’s Mobile Source Air Pollution Reduction Review Committee being another channel that the clean transportation community has to stay up on.

Overseas Investors
Startup companies in the US that are breaking into the market are finding that overseas investors might be the best (and sometimes, the only) capital source out there. Investments might come from India, Brazil, Israel, China, Spain, or United Arab Emirates. In recent years, most of these investments have come from Chinese government-backed companies with Wanxiang Group’s bailouts of Fisker Automotive and A123 Systems being the best-known examples. The ZAP and Jonway Auto alliance is another example of a US-based company (three-wheeled, low-speed electric vehicle maker ZAP) finding its needed cash flow through Chinese capital.

Private Equity and Venture Capital
Initial public offerings (IPOs), angel investors, joint ventures, corporate shareholders, private equity firms, and venture capital investors – these are a few of the elements that it takes for a small startup like Tesla Motors to become a major player. Angel investors typically provide capital at an early state of a startup’s development, followed by venture capital firms providing investments and sometimes business guidance and other resources to a new enterprise. One good example of how this is working on the cleantech front has been Vivint Solar’s successful IPO in 2014 that was led by major investment firm Blackstone Group. Another funding source worth following is Cleantech Group’s i3 program, where firms like GM Ventures match up with the right startup companies.

Green Bonds
Toyota’s Asset-Backed Green Bond, a $1.75 billion fund announced in March 2014, is part of a much larger global financial trend in green bonds. Funds used to finance bonds that are friendly to the environment are gaining popularity worldwide, according to Christopher Flensborg of SEB, a Swedish bank. Toyota Financial Services’ (TFS) $1.75 billion was upsized from $1.25 billion as institutional investors have expressed interest in this clean transportation investment opportunity. TFS will use the proceeds from Green Bond toward the purchase of retail finance contracts and lease contracts for Toyota and Lexus vehicles that meet high green standards. Overall, green bonds accounted for about $12 billion in funding last year.

Crowdfunding
“Crowdfunding” has become a capital source that’s taken off in the past few years, but it’s riddled with more automotive failure stories than success – as Autoblog Green regularly documents. If done the right way, crowdfunding can be an excellent way to raise seed capital. What initially started out as a simple way to make donations to causes and startups through social media communities has evolved into a mechanism for investor returns. Indiegogo and Kickstarter are the two major crowdfunding sites out there; Indiegogo is more focused on arts and entertainment such as movie projects. Kickstarter is more focused on advanced technology startups. Investors are tracking what will come of a ruling by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on the JOBS Act of 2012. The JOBS Act will probably ease federal regulations and allow start-ups to raise seed capital from a large number of individual investors up to a limit of $1 million. The SEC won’t be finalizing its crowdfunding rules until October 2015; these rules usually take up to 60 days to be published, meaning that the JOBS Act won’t really be in effect until early 2016. Regardless of that delay, crowdfunding has been booming in the past couple of years as a capital source for startups and major companies.

For startup companies and major players creating clean transportation subsidiaries, there are two investment sources that are likely to be viable this year and beyond: crowdfunding and government programs. My firm, LeSage Consulting, is now offering services to assist clean transportation stakeholders in finding needed investments………..…..

  • I’m working with an experienced colleague who has several years of success in securing funds through writing and submitting grant proposals. Funds have come through government grants and loans and crowdfunding sites. Funded projects have included telematics, autonomous vehicles, nautical and aerospace projects, and emissions reduction technologies.
  • If you visit Kickstarter and Indiegogo, you’ll see that two elements need to be in place: an innovative technology with positive economic and environmental gains; and telling a great story that generates enthusiasm from individuals and institutional investors. LeSage Consulting will manage that project for you – creating quality video and website content to tell that story the right way.
  • Preparing for “pitch meetings” organized by firms such as Angel Launch. These networking meetings are ideal for reaching startups, investors, and business executives. Winning awards provides access to capital and strong visibility.
  • Marketing to the right niches. LeSage Consulting will work closely with you on sharing your story and reaching out to the best-suited communities of stakeholders. That can come through market intelligence research, media coverage, social-media messaging, and setting up meetings with the right players in the field – including attending the appropriate pitch meetings.

When you become active in crowdfunding projects, you’ll notice that it’s not just startups who use Kickstarter and Indiegogo, or other relevant sites for cleantech such as Fundly, GoFundMe, Rockethub, Greenfunder, or Green Fundraising. Large companies are using crowdfunding to see if their projects in the R&D stage are gaining interest and support. Private equity firms also are active in crowdfunding sites to gauge where new technologies are heading in the marketplace; being active on Kickstarter and other crowdfunding can provide a meeting ground for institutional investors and corporations to move new technologies forward.

Most crowdfunding is targeted at small, startup technology launches that are receiving donations from an enthusiastic community who want to see that new company thrive. For larger companies and investors, there’s occasionally another business model utilized on crowdfunding sites – such as a board of advisors who’ve contributed $10,000 or more and participate in user-interface meetings. They’re not the same as shareholders attending a publicly traded corporation’s annual meeting, but they do contribute more input than individual donors on crowdfunding projects.

The cleantech community is very interested in crowdfunding, and has witnessed a few success stories. Solar Roadways provides an excellent “how to” on making crowdfunding work. The company makes modular panels that replace asphalt, generate energy, and save money on road maintenance. Its first round of funding – about $850,000 – came through the US Federal Highway Administration for research and development in 2009; and through winning GE’s first Ecomagination award in 2010. Lately, Solar Roadways has doubled its initial Indiegogo campaign – more than $2 million has been raised so far, with some of that interest supported last year by its entertaining Youtube video, “Solar Freakin Roadways.”

You may have an electric truck perfect for urban deliveries; a mobile device application that guides drivers to alternative fueling and charging stations; a propane dispenser ideal for fleets; a carsharing program ready to enter a dozen new markets; or a need for seed capital on an advanced vehicle technology R&D project (such as a NextGen lithium battery) so that it gain investment capital for its next phase. Keep in mind that LeSage Consulting can work closely with you on lining up funding to take it to the next level.

Government loan guarantees are seeing positive returns lately, even in the wake of the Solyndra scandal – the California-based solar company that went bankrupt and led to Congressional hearings on the Obama administration backing risky ventures. One clear example of government grants and low-interest loans coming back comes from the US Dept. of Energy investing in the world’s largest cellulosic refinery that opened up last fall in Hugoton, Kansas. Spain-based Abegona has built this refinery capable of producing up to 25 million gallons of cellulosic ethanol using non-edible waste. About $132 million of that plant’s $500 million was backed by the federal loan-guarantee program.

Government grants and loan guarantees (and incentive programs available to fleets through alternative fuel associations), along with crowdfunding, make the most sense these days. They can open the door later on for larger capital investments such as IPOs and venture capital partners. As we’ve clearly seen since 2008, cleantech and clean transportation are tough markets to enter, survive, and thrive within. Finding the right support and resources makes all the difference in the world. (For more information, please contact me at jlesage@jonlesage.com.)

More teasers released on the upcoming launch of the 2016 Chevy Volt

2016 Chevy VoltGeneral Motors Corp. will introduce the redesigned 2016 Chevrolet Volt next Monday at the Detroit Auto Show. The automaker has been releasing a series of teasers that started back in August with the photo of the Volt’s new back end and badging; and lately, there have been photos of a sheet-covered 2016 Volt with just a little bit of the front left corner showing. All of this has triggered a wave of media coverage and online commentaries in the past few weeks. Here are a few points to keep in mind:

  • The sheet was briefly pulled off the refreshed 2016 Volt two days ago at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) – see the photo above. The back-end of the car wasn’t viewed during this brief display.
  • Looking at what was shown at CES, it does have a more pointed, aerodynamic look than the 2011 to 2015 model year Volt, which likely comes from changes being adopted during the redesign to increase fuel efficiency. GM is waiting to reveal more information on the improved fuel efficiency.
  • Some of that fuel efficiency will come through installation of the Regen on Demand regenerative braking feature that was originally introduced in the Cadillac ELR plug-in hybrid.
  • The 2016 Volt does look more like a sedan look than the first-generation Volt models. Whether it will retain the five-door hatchback function from the previous version will have to be determined next week in Detroit.
  • There’s less noise generated from tires on the road in the NextGen Volt, according to GM’s product chief Mark Reuss as he takes another test drive in this video. An improved steering system also takes the car to the next level, Reuss said. Chevy Volt owners were listened to during the redesign to make sure all the little glitches have been cleaned up.
  • A crossover utility version, the Volt MPV5 or Crossvolt, probably won’t be shown off next Monday. It is possible to see it roll out in the next couple of years. In August, GM applied for a trademark for the “Crossvolt” that was published for opposition on Dec. 23. In 2010, GM showed a concept called the Volt MPV5, a compact crossover running off the Volt’s drivetrain. In 2013, a prototype very similar to the MPV5 was spotted as it was being tested with a fleet of Volts. I would bet that a plug-in hybrid crossover would find a lot of interest from those thinking about acquiring a Volt but wanting more storage space and functionality.
  • The “bi-coastal” strategy for the Volt isn’t going away. Chevrolet’s marketing chief, Tim Mahoney, says that the west coast and northeastern region of the US will likely to continue being where most all of the Volts get sold, current model year and through the 2016 MY changeover.

This Week’s Top 10: What’s next for luxury plug-ins, How things look for the 54.5 mpg standard

by Jon LeSage, editor and publisher, Green Auto Market 

Here’s my take on the 10 most significant and interesting occurrences during the past week…….

    Cadillace ELR being charged

  1. It’s hard to tell how seriously luxury and sports car buyers are taking plug-in technology. Automotive News just placed the Cadillac ELR plug-in hybrid at the top of its “blunders of 2014” list. Cadillac was taken to task for pricing the car at $75,995 and only selling 1,192 units since its introduction at the beginning of 2014. The styling may have “surprised the world,” but the pricing took it out of consideration for anyone likely to buy one, said Aaron Bragman, Cars.com’s Detroit bureau chief. Tesla Motors may be down in sales on its Model S luxury all-electric car. com and Baum and Associates reported 1,450 units sold in November while InsideEVs reported 1,200 – down from September and October 2014 sales numbers. Tesla doesn’t report those numbers until its quarterly reports come out, but sales may be down and its stock price has dropped lately. One the other side of the coin, German automakers are still taking the Tesla competition seriously and plan to roll out a series of direct competitors between 2018 and 2021 with the Model S and future Tesla products. These new vehicle launches from Audi, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Porsche will be priced between $65,000 to more than $125,000 – and represent a total investment of about $7.5 billion for these German automakers. Fisker Automotive and its Wanxiang Group owner will be watching all of it closely as the Karma rolls out again. Analysts, stock traders, and investors will need to have a few questions answered. How much are car buyers/lessees willing to spend on luxury, sporty electric cars? What would it take to get these high-income consumers to take these technologies seriously?
  2. Will the US rollback on the 54.5 mpg fuel economy standard by 2025 during the 2017 midterm review? Will declining gasoline prices force the issue? Not necessarily, according to an analysis piece in WardsAuto. Automakers are globalizing their vehicle technologies and emissions regulations in key markets are ruling out allowing for major changes. Europe isn’t backing off its tough CO2 emissions rules. Making changes strictly for the U.S. market could end up costing more money than it would save.
  3. Navigant Research thinks global carbon emissions standards will be serious enough to mean that by 2017, over half of all vehicles sold globally in 2017 will be powered by technologies other than conventional gasoline engines. Electrified transportation and alternative fuels will continue to grow, but gasoline will continue to be the leading fuel in year ahead; many of the fuel economy gains will come through fuel-efficient technologies such as smaller engines and turbocharging. Incremental improvements in engines and transmissions, and vehicle weight reduction in as many places as possible, will play into meeting those targets.
  4. The California Energy Commission (CEC) is offering $4 million for Applied Research and Development projects “that will advance technologies and strategies for smart and efficient charging and vehicle-to-grid communication interfaces that will provide maximum benefits to both the electricity grid and the plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market.” The project is aiming to encourage EV drivers to charge when grid demand is low and/or renewable energy sources are abundant. CEC will host a workshop on its PON-14-310 (program opportunity notice) in Sacramento on Jan. 7, 2015. Final applications are due Feb. 6, 2015.
  5. The US Department of Energy (DOE) will be hosting a meeting at its Washington, DC headquarters on Feb. 25, 2015, to create a five-year strategic plan for Clean Cities. It’s been five years since such a meeting has happened, joining together Clean Cities Coordinators, DOE staff, national laboratories, and energy and transportation experts. It’s part of supporting Clean Cities’ national goal of displacing 2.5 billion gallons of petroleum per year by 2020.
  6. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been tweeting about a company announcement – the Roadster will be able to travel nearly 400 miles on a single charge, up from about 245 miles. That will come from a new prototype package the company calls Roadster 3.0 with an improved lithium ion battery that provides 31% more energy. Range extension will also be supported by a retro-fitted aero kit to improve the vehicle’s coefficient of drag, and low-resistance tires that are 20% better than their previous version on the Roadster.
  7. Royal Dutch Shell’s joint venture in Brazil, Raízen, will be spending close to $1 billion on “second generation” ethanol plants in that country. Brazil’s largest ethanol producer will invest in eight plants before 2024 to increase biofuel output up to 50% to produce biofuel from sugarcane waste. This is happening as several Brazilian ethanol producers have been struggling to stay open – and it could represent more confidence in second generation, advanced biofuels.
  8. It looks like California’s regulatory standards on self-driving cars will be delayed. The state’s Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) announced it will miss a state Senate deadline to establish public regulations for autonomous vehicles by Jan. 1, 2015. Safety concerns are the main reason for the delay; possible regulations will be discussed at a public workshop in Sacramento in late January. In the meantime, DMV will be gathering feedback from industry, academic, and industry groups. There’s much interest on what California does in the absence of federal safety standards or independent organizations testing the safety of these vehicles.
  9. Greenbelt Resources was chosen as the “Best Biofuels and Biochemicals Solution” in The New Economy Magazine’s 2014 Clean Tech Awards. The company’s modular small-scale organic waste recycling technology converts food-based waste into consumable products and renewable energy. PortTech Los Angeles had named Greenbelt Resources as one of the top 10 clean technology startups for 2014.
  10. China’s southern city of Shenzhen, located next to Hong Kong, has become the latest city to cap new vehicle sales to control smog and traffic congestion. Shenzhen has capped new vehicle license plates at 100,000 a year with an annual quote of 20,000 electric vehicles (which can be adjusted for changes in traffic, air pollution, and car demand). The city follows similar policies enacted at other Chinese municipalities setting quotas on new vehicles: Beijing, Guangzhou, Guiyang, Hangzhou, Shanghai, and Tianjin.

Significant clean transportation news events in 2014

New yearGreen Auto Market hopes you’re having a great holiday season away from the office. Before the new year begins, here are 10 leading events from this year (and a few “almost made it” at the end of the list) that will have rippling effects on 2015………

  1. Gasoline price drops – On Friday, AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report said that US regular gasoline prices had averaged $2.32 per gallon versus $3.26 one year ago. As explored in another Green Auto Market article this week, gas prices will go up quite a bit but it could take about five years for that to happen. Sales of hybrids, electric vehicles, and natural gas vehicles have been impacted by that market force. Making the case for investing in alternative fuel vehicles is getting tougher for fleets and consumers, but there are still a few solid reasons for going in that direction.
  2. Tesla battles dealers – The Georgia Automobile Dealers Association has been the latest state dealer group to battle Tesla Motors’ legal ability to directly sell its cars to consumers outside independent franchised dealers. Earlier this month, Georgia auto dealers testified before a state administrative law judge to make that case. Tesla is slightly ahead of dealer associations on this issue in several states, but has been barred in a few of them (such as the sizable market of Texas).
  3. Google rolling out self-driving cars – Google’s launch of a test project featuring its own self-driving pods back in May of this year fueled a heated debate that went viral on the internet. Autonomous vehicles, also known as driverless and self-driving cars, led to significant studies being launched (such as Hands off the Steering Wheel), automaker announcements, and extensive media coverage. It will take a few years to see autonomous vehicles next to you on roads, but things are changing.
  4. Infrastructure growth – In the past year, alternative fueling and charging stations saw some growth in the US – compressed natural gas (CNG) stations increasing 150 stations to 794; electric vehicle public charging stations increasing 2,102 to 8,814; propane autogas increasing 44 to 2,715; and liquefied natural gas increased 19 to 64 stations (according to Clean Cities Alternative Fuels Data Center). Clean Energy Fuels played a big part in the natural gas station expansion; and California started seeing more hydrogen stations open up.
  5. Ridesharing service Uber has become Public Enemy No. 1 this year for the taxi industry and other ground transportation services. This San Francisco-based network company makes mobile applications that connect passengers with drivers of vehicles for hire and ridesharing services. Taxi drivers have protested this year in US and European cities; they’re furious that Uber drivers don’t have to pay the steep prices for taxi licenses that taxi drivers end up paying off over several years. India will decide if Uber can access metro markets in that country.  Other ridesharing services such as Lyft and Sidecar face similar battles with cities that fear ridesharing will transform the taxi business and take away the revenue that comes from fees paid by taxi owners every year.
  6. Luxury plug-ins had a significant year with the BWW i8 joining the i3 in BMW’s electric vehicle offerings. The plug-in hybrid i8 sells for $136,000 and has the same performance as a BMW 335i. As of Nov. 30, the i3 had sold 5,079 units in the US for 2014– pretty impressive for an expensive luxury electric car.
  7. Propane autogas had an impressive year in school bus fleets, police cars, utility trucks, and in UPS’ decision to bring in 1,000 propane-powered delivery trucks to its fleet. Fleet managers are making a business case that propane-powered vehicles are worth the investment with emissions reductions, fuel cost savings, and supporting domestic fuel providers.
  8. ACT Expo saw attendance growth In Long Beach, and significant partnership announcements including joining up with Electric Drive Transportation Association for the 2015 event. Other clean transportation conferences did very well, too. AltCar Expo saw growth in attendance with a strong Santa Monica, Calif.-conference in September and through its partnerships with the Bay Area and Dallas events. Other successful conferences were North American Green Fleet Forum, presented by Sacramento Clean Cities Coalition; CleanTech OC’s annual conference and clean transportation event earlier this year; Plug in 2014 in San Jose, Calif.; and CALSTART’s annual conference and Blue Sky Awards.
  9. The Renewable Fuel Standard decision by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was once again put off on biofuel production and gasoline blending until next year – nearly one year after deciding to extend that decision on production volume. The biodiesel industry has been feeling the pinch, and corn ethanol has shifted to overseas markets. Advanced biofuels like biodiesel and cellulosic ethanol will take longer than expected to reach higher production volumes.
  10. While it didn’t get all that much media attention, a major global alliance took a big step forward. The United States and China, which together produce 45% of the world’s carbon emissions, made an agreement to extend their greenhouse gas emission reduction targets farther than before. Details on the US-China greenhouse gas emissions agreement is being decided for next year. China’s economy is booming, and workers are moving to cities to take jobs and housing. They’re buying a lot of cars, too. All of this producing a huge volume of emissions at power plants and vehicles.

Here are some other significant news stories for 2014: Tesla Motors choosing Nevada to set up its “Gigafactory;” California institutionalized its position as leader in the electric vehicle market; the debate over whether hydrogen fuel cell vehicles could make or if electric vehicles should be the only alternative technology supported by OEMs (and why Toyota was choosing hydrogen); NAFA Fleet Management Association and CALSTART moved the Sustainable Fleet Standard Program forward; and the launch of LeSage Consulting in January 2014. The idea for that consulting firm started in February 2013 while talking to my Automotive Digest colleagues and interviewing fleet managers such as NAFA President Claude Masters, an experienced and passionate advocate of clean transportation. (Editor’s note: the decision to put out the press release on the launch of LeSage Consulting at the beginning of this year was going to be delayed several months – until my partner/significant other challenged me to keep my word. Thanks very much, Susan. Special thanks also goes out to Chuck Parker, Nancy Edwards, Ted Roberts, Janice Sutton, and other Automotive Digest colleagues; members of the monthly Stakeholder Editorial Advisory conference calls; and to Long Beach Clean Cities Coalition.)

Where petroleum prices are heading in the next few years

Gas pricesThe economic power of the oil industry continues to be more influential than any other business sector in the world; that includes OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries like Canada and Russia, and supply chain partners such as oil refineries. When the price of oil jumps up or down, the economic rippling effect is felt throughout the world; sales of hybrids and electric vehicles are affected and geopolitical issues, such as alliances between countries, are impacted.

When oil, gasoline, and diesel prices spiked in 2008, the term “fuel volatility” became commonly known by fleets and consumers. Sales of hybrid electric vehicles jumped up. Investment in natural gas vehicles and infrastructure – and to a lesser extent propane autogas – had a resurgence not seen since the early 1990s. The oil price spike in the summer of 2008 helped push along the US financial market collapse that started in September of that year – and it also supported the introduction of plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) by the end of 2010. Volatility in fuel prices has given car shoppers more concerns for fuel efficiency and more interest in EVs and other alternative technologies. Oil prices, and gasoline and diesel, did drop back down in 2009 but came back up again in 2011. Those prices stayed up and fairly level until dropping nearly 50% in the second half of 2014.

Even though the US and the world had been hit with the Great Recession, the first EVs produced in fairly large numbers were introduced by major automakers before the economy started recovering. When the Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Volt were rolled out in late 2010, advertisements for the Leaf and Volt emphasized freedom from oil addiction (such as driving by gas stations) and environmental benefits. Tesla Motors had introduced the limited production volume Roadster in early 2008; its Model S, launched in the summer of 2012, had been able to generate enough enthusiasm long before roll-out to support the company’s 2010 initial public offering and large investments by Daimler and Toyota.

Major automakers expect that within the next five-to-10 years, oil price increases and the possibility of more motor fuel taxes, will drive up prices at the pump. Increasing environmental regulations and fuel economy standards, and the drive toward sustainability targets by corporations and governments, are also influencing those capital investments and new vehicle planning. Major automakers, including commercial truck manufacturers, are going to continue to invest in alternative fuel vehicles and advanced vehicle technologies. Along with fuel price trends, automakers are planning for a fast-changing transportation landscape where they’ll be selling less new vehicles and partnering with other stakeholders in carsharing, autonomous vehicles, urban planning, vehicle safety improvements, and reducing traffic congestion gridlock and air pollution.

If you study the Forbes’ list of the world’s biggest public companies, you’ll see that major oil companies are high on the list and that the annual ranking is becoming more expanded and globalized. China, which became the largest importer of oil in 2013, plays a very visible role on this list. No. 1 on the list is ICBC (Industrial & Commercial Bank of China), which funds a lot of petroleum production. Number 10 on that list is PetroChina, which refines crude oil and petroleum products and is engaged in the exploration, development, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas. PetroChina was also the largest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions in the world during 2013. Advanced vehicle technologies are in the pipeline, but for now, the power of the global oil industry and its impact on emissions can’t be ignored.

As for the near future, and for the long-term, here are a few market forces to follow that likely will be influencing motor fuel prices………..

  • While crude oil has been selling for about $55 lately on the WTI exchange, analyst firm Trefis forecasts those prices will reach about $100 per barrel by 2020. Recent price declines in oil should extend for a longer period of time than Trefis had originally predicted; a slower growth demand scenario and the weakened price controlling power of OPEC will extend these current prices longer, but they will be going up to the $100 per barrel range in about five years. Rapid growth from non-OPEC supplies relative to overall demand has been at the heart of the recent oil price drop.
  • Approval of the Keystone XL pipeline in Washington, DC, appears less likely to happen. Lower gasoline prices and skeptical comments from President Barack Obama may be behind it. While it may be very good for Canadian oil companies, it’s not going to provide much for American consumers, Obama said. That’s the fourth non-supporting comment the president has made publicly since early November on the six-year old proposed pipeline that would run between Alberta and Texas. Several analysts have said that falling gas prices support the argument of Keystone XL pipeline opponents that it’s not worth the investment; Canadian oil isn’t necessary with all the global oversupply that’s already out there.
  • The US may benefit from these price fluctuations in stabilizing hostile relationships with Russia, Iran, and Venezuela – which face financial collapse with oil price drops. Russia’s former finance minister and long-time ally with Russian president Vladimir Putin has called for his country to improve relations with the US as the oil price drop is creating for them a “full-blown economic crisis.” Putin has been at odds with the US and other countries over Western sanctions after Russia intervened in Ukraine. The Venezuelan government had hoped to continue with the free-spending policies enacted by former President Hugo Chavez, but that’s not likely with oil prices dropping. Iran has been losing about $1 billion a month because of the oil price declines. Long-time Pentagon adviser Edward Luttwak says the price drop, “is knocking down America’s principal opponents without us even trying.”