Study says China will lead global mobility market, Looking at real range for electrified vehicles

China will lead electrified mobility market:  China will drive the global market forward for mobility services, according to a new study by IHS Markit, Reinventing the Wheel: Mobility and Energy Future. Much of that will come from being by far the largest auto sales market in the world, with the consulting firm forecasting 28 million new vehicles to be sold there next year versus 17.1 million in the second largest global market, the U.S. Didi Chuxing is leading the way in that market for growth in app-based mobility services, as Uber and Lyft have done in the U.S. Electrified vehicles and development of autonomous vehicle technology will also play a part in China and other markets. China had more than 234,000 new energy vehicles (all-electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles) sold from January through September 2017, compared to over 140,000 unites in the U.S. market.

Robotaxis has become the buzzword among automakers and media on shared autonomous mobility services, and Nissan could be taking a leading role in the new and emerging segment. Nissan will launch a field test in Japan next year, expanding its autonomous vehicle program launched a few years ago and preparing for vehicle production by 2022. It will compete with what’s been started by Waymo this year, and by Lyft in Boston, and Renault in France. Nissan will be working with technology development company DeNA, and will operate the test project near the automaker’s headquarters in Yokohama.

Looking at real range in federal fuel economy report:  One of the more interesting parts of the federal report released last week, the 2018 Fuel Economy Guide, focuses on the range rating given by the Environmental Protection Agency. Here are the leaders in battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, along with the three commercial market fuel cel vehicles:

BEVs:
Tesla Model 3 (long range edition): 310 miles
Tesla Model S (AWD – 90D): 294 miles
Chevy Bolt: 238 miles
Tesla Model X (AWD – 75D): 238 miles
BYD e6: 187 miles

PHEVs: (total range from battery and gasoline engine combined)
Toyota Prius Prime: 640 miles
Hyundai Ioniq Plug-in Hybrid: 630 miles total range
Kia Optima Plug-in Hybrid: 610 miles
Ford Fusion Energi Plug-in Hybrid: 610 miles
Hyundai Sonata Plug-in Hybrid: 590 miles
Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid: 570 miles
Chevy Volt: 420 miles
Honda Clarity Plug-in Hybrid: 340 miles

Fuel cell vehicle range:
Honda Clarity: 366 miles
Toyota Mirai: 312 miles
Hyundai Tucson Fuel Cell: 265 miles

Driving range has been a critical issue for these vehicles, especially BEVs. It’s been less of a concern in other countries where short trips and use of other transportation modes is common. Drivers in the U.S. are more dependent on vehicles with a driving range of 300 or more miles in between fuel station stops or charging sessions.

Ghosn says Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance rolling out a dozen new EVs, IHS Markit takes a look at the future of personal mobility

Newsworthy:  The Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance will be rolling out 12 new all-electric models using common platforms by 2022, according to CEO Carlos Ghosn. Plug-in hybrid models will also be utilized, coming from Mitsubishi’s experience with the Outlander PHEV. Two other utility plug-in hybrids will be coming to market over the next two years. The alliance companies have collectively already sold more than a half million plug-in electrified vehicles…………. Solid-state batteries are gaining more support for fast charging, long-range electric vehicles for the next decade. Fisker, Inc., has filed patents for these types of batteries, and expects to see them used in mass-scale production of its EMotion electric sedan around 2023. Toyota believes enough in the technology to launched EVs with energy stored in solid-state batteries around 2022…………. Major Chinese automaker Geely will be buying up U.S. flying car startup Terrafugia for an undisclosed amount. Terrafugia plans to bring its first flying car to market in 2019. The company will remain headquartered in the U.S…………… The BMW Group announced that by 2020, the company will only sources its electricity from renewable energy; that’s up from 63% of it coming from renewables at the end of 2016. The automaker made the announcement during the UN Climate Change Conference in Bonn, Germany.

Going Mobile:  Plug-in electrified vehicles will make up 30% of new vehicle sales in four critical markets by 2040 – China, the U.S., Europe, and India – according to a new study by IHS Markit. You’ll notice that the percentage isn’t anywhere near 100% if fossil-fuel bans were to be enacted across these four markets. China, India, France, Great Britain, and other markets are considering banning gasoline and diesel powered engines entirely.

Reinventing the Wheel is a new multi-client, scenarios-based research initiative by IHS Markit that combines its energy, automotive and chemical teams for system-wide analysis of the new reality of transportation. It includes the future of mobility and car ownership, which is expected to have a major impact on the energy chosen to power vehicles of the future.

Consumers will be shifting away from car owners to paying for mobility services during the transition time, the study says. By 2040, vehicle miles traveled (VMT) will have grown to an all-time high of around 11 billion miles per year in the four studied markets. That makes for a 65% increase of VMTs from now. Over that times, sales growth of new light-duty vehicles will slow substantially, according to the study. Use of autonomous vehicles will also be a driving force for change.

“A great ‘automotive paradox’—where more travel via car than ever, but fewer cars will be needed by individuals—will be a defining quality of the new automotive future,” said Daniel Yergin, IHS Markit vice chairman. “The shift is just beginning. By 2040, the changes in transportation will be accelerating in a way that will be visible on roads and highways around the world. The pace and degree of this dynamic shift will have significant implications for industry, for public transportation systems and for how people get to work and live their lives – and spend their money on transport.”

While the U.S. may not ban fossil-fuel vehicles and could soften mileage and emissions rules under the Trump administration, market forces will still be at play for EVs to hit the 30% mark across the four major auto markets included in the study. The IHS Markit study concludes that higher fuel economy and emissions standards and reduction in gasoline’s share of new vehicle sales will lead to an aggregate decline for oil that ends up in gas stations during the 2020s. Another tipping point cited in the study will be seeing the cost of EV battery packs drop significantly by the 2030s, making EV costs much more competitive with internal combustion engines.

For Today: Amazon competing with UPS and FedEx, Possible spy photo of Tesla semi truck

Amazon ramping up for delivery services:  Amazon.com is getting ready to take over deliveries that it had counted on UPS and FedEx to take care of. The company is trying out a new delivery service that will offer free two-day delivery and reduce overcrowding at its warehouses, according to two people familiar with the plan. Testing the new service, called Seller Flex, began two years ago as a trial project in India. The company has been marketing the service to U.S. merchants to prepare for national expansion. It started out this year in west coast states with a broad rollout scheduled for 2018, according to the sources. It’s tied into heavy-duty and medium-duty delivery trucks that will service its Amazon Prime and Amazon Flex units. Amazon last year launched Seller Fulfilled Prime, which lets merchants in the Amazon network who don’t stow items in Amazon warehouses still have their products listed with the Prime badge. That gives these merchants the opportunity to tap into the two-day delivery service. Amazon is gaining control over these deliveries, though it may still use third-party couriers to carry out deliveries with their own fleet vehicles.

Fuel economy stays flat:  Brandon Schoettle and Michael Sivak, of the University of Michigan’s Transportation Research Institute, reported that average fuel economy (window-sticker value) of new vehicles sold in the U.S. in September was 25.3 mpg. That was unchanged from August and below the 25.5 mpg peak reached in August 2014. The value for September is up 5.2 mpg since October 2007, the first month of the monitoring. Emissions have improved. The University of Michigan Eco-Driving Index (EDI), which estimates the average monthly emissions of greenhouse gases generated by an individual U.S. driver, improved to 0.81 in July 2017; that’s down from 0.83 in June 2017.

Tesla truck photo:  A possible spy shot photo of Tesla’s soon-to-be-launched Class 8 semi-tractor heavy-duty truck was spotted and posted this week on the Reddit social media site. It was posted then abruptly removed on Tuesday morning after showing what could be the Tesla truck on a delivery truck bed in the California desert. It does look similar to a design teaser released earlier this year by Tesla. The EV-maker declined to comment on it. Tesla plans to reveal the truck later this month – on Oct. 26. It’s scheduled to be operating on public roads by 2020.