Test projects may be tipping point for mobility, Uber and colleagues battling California labor law

Here’s the final commentary in a series on predictions that 2030 will be the watershed year to watch for when vehicles, transportation, and the entire auto industry itself will look quite different than it does today.

Most Americans are skeptical about completely turning over their car rides to an automated, electric vehicle. It would eventually mean giving up an old, classic tradition — getting behind the wheel and taking off for whatever destination they choose, exercising personal freedom of choice. And there are those who adore classic and vintage cars, and won’t ever want to give it up.

The latest J.D. Power study on autonomous vehicles and electric vehicles, and an interview with a top automaker CEO, indicate that peoples’ expectations for new technology development will remain in place; but opinions are leaning toward the transformation and adoption taking much longer than 2030 (more on Honda and the Power study later). Earning the public’s buy-in is going to take a while.

Autonomous, electrified shared rides and robo-taxis appear to be the most likely way that cultural transformation will be taking place — in the US and other markets where ownership of personal vehicles became the expected norm years ago.

There are other pathways expected to play a vital role in these historic shifts. Automated shuttles are becoming the first application for autonomous vehicles to be deployed as people movers under restricted conditions. Fleet deployment of electric light-to-heavy duty vehicles equipped with the latest connected, automated technologies will also play a vital role.

For now, test projects are being carried out integrating autonomous, sometimes electric, vehicles with increasingly popular transportation modes — ride hailing, car sharing, bus and shuttle rides, and a variation on age-old taxi rides. So let’s take a look.

Waymo is the closest example of what it might look like next, certainly in the US and likely around the world. The Waymo One app used to hail rides in Phoenix’s suburb of Chandler provides an alternative to taking a bus ride, taxi, or ride hailing. Started in December 2018, Waymo One has given members of its early rider program (that will go out to the general public eventually) access to an autonomous ride-hailing service. Just hit the button on the app, and very soon an empty Chrysler Pacifica minivan will approach and come to a stop right in front of you.

In 2017, Waymo CEO John Krafcik declared during a conference that “fully self-driving cars are here.” But it would take longer for them to show up for riders. Most all of the Pacifica minivans in the Phoenix area still have human riders trained to take over the van in the event of an emergency; a few self-driving vehicles are operating in limited test areas. There are hundreds of customers in the early-rider program, with some limitations.

Riders will get access to Waymo One if there’s an available vehicle nearby. It’s taking place in a controlled, geo-fenced environment. Riders are selected based on what zip code they live in and have to sign NDAs. The rides are free for now.

Waymo just expanded its working relationship with leading dealer network AutoNation. The autonomous Chrysler Pacifica can now be used to move auto parts between AutoNation’s Tempe, Ariz., locations and other repair shops in the area, including those operated by independent third parties. It’s bound to make the consumer’s vehicle maintenance and repair experience more time efficient and reliable. Previously, the relationship led to Waymo’s Pacificas being serviced at AutoNation garages, and as a mobility source for AutoNation customers to get rides to their dealerships.

Lyft Level 5:  On March 28, Lyft began testing on public roads. Lyft has hired over 300 engineers, applied researchers, product managers, operations managers, and more. The focus has been on creating the world’s best computer vision, robotics, and machine learning experts. Cited accomplishments include 3D segmentation frameworks, new methods of evaluating energy efficiency in vehicles, and tracking vehicle movement using crowd-sourced maps.

The investment from General Motors has merely provided Lyft with needed capital. The company’s autonomous ride group, called Lyft Level 5, about a year ago launched a public self-driving program in Las Vegas with partner Aptiv. In August 2018, the project surpassed 5,000 self-driving rides. That recently surpassed over 50,000 autonomous rides to Lyft passengers. The company said it makes it the largest self-driving program in the US.

Waymo is another partner, where some its self-driving minivans are available for Lyft ride sharing. It’s restricted to Waymo’s authorized zone outside of Phoenix. Waymo CEO Krafcik believes the relationship gives both companies “the opportunity to collect valuable feedback.”

Last spring, Lyft said in its mandatory IPO filing that it wants to begin providing self-driving ride-hail trips on the app within five years. Within a decade, Lyft wants to be ready to provide a network of autonomous vehicles providing a majority of its trips. Five years later, the company wants to see its “purpose-built” self-driving vehicles on the road — able to take passengers on long-haul journeys.

Advanced Technologies Group (Uber ATG):  Before being forced out, Uber founder and former chief executive, Travis Kalanick, said in 2016 that self-driving technology was “basically existential” for the company.

The company believes the future of mobility is increasingly shared, sustainable, and automated. The payoff will be big — supporting sustainability, helping make roads safer, and making transportation more affordable for everyone. But the capital drain continues.

Questions have come and gone about whether Uber will be able to stay in the autonomous vehicle race, with things ending badly in its Pittsburgh test market years ago. Last year’s pedestrian fatality also raises the challenges of clearing the investigation and restoring trust in its ability to safety test its AVs.

Uber is still testing adapted Volvo vehicles in its partnership with Volvo Cars through its, a company that does emphasize safety. A test project with Toyota also continues. Another alliance exists with PTIO, the Partnership for Transportation Innovation and Opportunity, to find solutions that ensure everyone benefits from the adoption of self-driving technology.

AV testing through Advanced Technologies Group (Uber ATG) continues in Dallas, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, and Toronto, with about 32 AVs being monitored and tracked. Dallas has been the center of testing, with ancillary test runs and Uber services being tried out, including shared rides, Uber Eats, JUMP scooters, Transit, Uber Freight, and more. The city’s modern infrastructure, unique traffic patterns, road characteristics, and climate offer new information that inform the company’s ongoing engineering efforts.

Tesla continues to cooperate with officials during investigations over fatalities tied to its Autopilot semi-autonomous feature. But the race is far from over. The company does have a sizable early lead in this space both in terms of autonomous miles driven as well as monetization of its self-driving technology.

The electric automaker has already delivered over 780,000 vehicles since its launch, and most of them come with pre-installed self-driving capabilities that users can unlock by paying for software. The company’s autonomous driving hardware is based on mature technology such as Radar, Ultrasonic, and Passive video, which is cheaper than some rivals who use LIDAR – a laser-based system.

Going this route has enabled the company to equip the hardware as standard in all its vehicles, irrespective of whether or not a user enables it by paying money.
As the company’s vehicles are estimated to have driven over 1.88 billion Autopilot miles in total thus far, this could be further enhancing Tesla’s log of driving data.

CEO Elon Musk has suggested that its AV system will be available in various applications, including as a revenue source for owners. Those opting in can rent their Model 3, or other Tesla vehicle, out to Uber and Lyft drivers (or another ride-hailing firm) needing an autonomous EV to do their work.

Maven and GM:  In May, GM began shuttering its Maven car-sharing business in eight major U.S. cities, including Boston, Chicago and New York. GM won’t ending Maven anytime soon, but it is taking much longer than hoped to expand. It started up in early 2016 when a team of engineers and project managers were brought over from Google and Zipcar, along with staff it acquired from Sidecar, a failed competitor to Uber and Lyft.

Business has been smaller and slower than anticipated, and with competition coming from established car-sharing brands Zipcar and Car2Go. Two other segments were added — Maven Gig, a rental service for carless Uber and Lyft drivers. Maven Reserve added longer-term rentals; and the latest sub-segment is a peer-to-peer rental service. Maven had also been a good channel for testing out EVs and AVs. In 2017, Maven added over 100 Chevy Bolts to its fleet and participated in GM self-driving car testing.

CEO Mary Barra in recent years had emphasized that her company will become the global leader in advanced, autonomous, and electric vehicles as automakers shift over from vehicle manufacturers to full-service mobility service providers. Maven has been a slow-development projects and AVs are going that route. In July, Its self driving car unit, GM Cruise, said in July it was backing off plans to make available autonomous taxis by the end of this year. More testing of the vehicles will need to happen first.

GM’s $500 million investment in ride-hailing firm Lyft in 2016 has moved far away from any type of joint project, with Lyft continuing to test its own small fleet of self-driving cars without GM’s involvement.

Apple-backed DiDi Chuxing has received a license to operate a fleet of up to 50 self-driving cars on a pilot basis in part of the Jiading district in Shanghai, China. Automakers SAIC and BMW also received permits at the World Autonomous Vehicle Ecosystem Conference on September 16.

Apple had invested about $1 billion in DiDi in 2016. The tech giant has expected that its investment and involvement would boost both companies’ efforts in product research and development — especially in China’s massive auto market. In January, the company cut more than 200 employees from its self-driving car initiative, Project Titan, in what it described as a restructuring. Five months later, Apple confirmed that it had acquired Drive.ai, a self-driving startup backed by more than $77 million in funding.

Didi, a giant ride-hailing company in China, was scheduled to begin picking up ride-hailing passengers with self-driving cars in Shanghai soon. The project will be expanded the program from that city — going toward the deployment of self-driving vehicles outside of China by 2021.

Test rides include another rider providing safety intervention in the event of an emergency. Didi is waiting for a few remaining licenses before it can start transporting customers in AVs. Self-driving rides will be free for customers, and more than 30 different vehicles will be offered for self-driving trips as part of the pilot, the company said.

Amazon:  Amazon continues its move as the central player in goods delivery, warehousing, and integrating technology advancements like delivery drones into the equation. One of the decisions was for Amazon to set up acquisition of 100,000 all-electric delivery vans to Amazon over the next decade. Michigan-based startup Rivian Automotive will be building and delivering them. Amazon chief Jeff Bezos said 100,000-unit fleet will eliminate 4 million metric tons of carbon emissions when fully operational.

Over the last decade, the tech giant has spent billions of dollars working on finding solutions to the “last-mile” problem in urban delivery. The company has built its own fleet of cargo jets, and explored delivery by drone in the form of “Prime Air.” More recently, an increasing percentage of that investment has been directed toward autonomous vehicle technology.

In January, the company introduced the Amazon Scout, a six-wheeled electric-powered delivery robot. Six of these robots are currently making deliveries in a Washington neighborhood during daylight hours, Monday through Friday. The next month, Amazon invested in Aurora Innovation, an autonomous tech startup run by former executives from Google and Tesla.

Penske is getting into car sharing through its Penske Dash subsidiary, with an initial launch in Washington, DC, and Arlington, Va. The trucking logistics, rental, and leasing giant, is offering Volkswagen Jetta SE models for rent by the minute, hour, or day through its proprietary app. Rates are inclusive of fuel, parking, and insurance.

The truck leasing and rental company has joined the race with three other rental companies — Hertz, Avis, and Enterprise — which have been testing out car-sharing projects in recent years. Avis has made the biggest splash with its acquisition of Zipcar.

Penske partnered with Ridecell, which is powering the mobile app, payment processing, parking info, and predictive analytics for the fleet. Members using the service have 24/7 access to a call center and a local fleet operations team.

Operational efficiency will be a big part of the unit’s success, the company said. “We can take advantage of infrastructure through our joint venture partners at Penske Corporation and Penske Truck Leasing, particularly on the service and roadside assistance portion of the car-sharing business,” said Michael Montri, chief operating officer.

Hyundai just announced it will launch a free ride-hailing service with a fleet of autonomous electric cars in Irvine, Calif., starting this month. The news comes after the South Korean automaker announced that it would invest $35 billion in autonomous and electric vehicle development over the next five years.

Hyundai is partnering with AV startup Pony.ai and ride-hailing service Via for the free taxi service. Interested riders can hail a self-driving car via a smartphone app. Korea’s largest automaker said it won’t be fully autonomous. Hyundai says a safety driver will be behind the wheel, and there will also be an additional engineer in the passenger seat.

It’s one piece in the Korean maker’s new global campaign. The company promotes itself as a world-leading smart mobility solutions provider that will be able to offer solutions through its cutting-edge technologies and solutions. That will offer customers “quality time and empower them to pursue their passions at full throttle,” the company said — and has been depicting it in a new global brand campaign called #BecauseofYou.

The first of these TV commercials was filmed in downtown Amsterdam during the morning rush hour. The commercials shows a female office worker being overwhelmed by the traffic — a crisis becomes instantly transformed when she steps out of her Hyundai Nexo fuel-cell SUV and hops onto a Hyundai electric scooter — solving the “last mile” dilemma becoming common in cities around the world with booming populations, and getting to her office on time.

Some automakers backing off:  While 2030 has been named the magic year in a few market reports and conference keynote speeches, the timeline for automated EVs to become the industry norm in global vehicle manufacturing and sales likely will be taking much longer. One auto executive recently spoke to the question.

“The hurdles to battery electric vehicles and complete autonomous driving are still quite high,” Honda CEO Takahiro Hachigo recently said in an interview at Honda Motor Co.’s global headquarters.

Honda will focus on gasoline-electric hybrids, not full EVs, through 2030. As for fully autonomous vehicles, Honda will roll out incremental advances that offer real-world safety at affordable prices. The automaker already has a number of new technologies ready to include in its new vehicle lineup, including a hands-off autonomous system for highways. But the company will be taking a “wait-and-see” approach with autonomous and electric vehicles.

Hachigo’s perspectives are shared by other leaders in auto manufacturing, including Japanese rival Toyota’s Executive Vice President Shigeki Tomoyama. The executive last month said in a speech that even with its $10 billion r&d budget, Toyota has always seen the path to commercialization as long and challenging.

Last month, Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak said he’s “given up” on ever seeing Level 5 fully autonomous vehicles being allowed on public roads during his lifetime. Apple is still working on a self-driving car project, but Wozniak said it’s become much harder to achieve than had originally been thought.

A new survey by J.D. Power last month supports the conclusion that reaching mass adoption will be taking well over a decade. The study found that consumer sentiment about self-driving vehicles and electrification has stayed flat recently, even through the technology growth has been impressive.

J.D. Power’s 2019 Q3 Mobility Confidence Index Study found that opinions haven’t changed since the last survey three month prior. The index now stands at 36 (on a 100-point scale) for self-driving vehicles and 55 for battery-electric vehicles — identical to the previous one.

“It was a little surprising to find consumer sentiment about self-driving vehicles and electrification has stayed flat,” said Kristin Kolodge, J.D. Power’s executive director-driver interaction and human-machine interface research. “But it shows that consumers are really steadfast in their opinions about new mobility technologies right now, regardless of how close they are to being available for purchase.”

The studies polled more than 5,000 consumers and industry experts on self-driving vehicles, and another 5,000 on battery-electric vehicles. One industry expert in the study agrees with colleagues on how tough the challenge has become. “Tech and automotive companies continue to learn how difficult the problem really is,” the expert said.

In February 2018, a global ride-hailing industry association was formed and found membership in several leading entities — BlaBlaCar, Citymapper, Didi, Keolis, LimeBike, Lyft, Mobike, Motivate, Ofo, Ola, Scoot Networks, Transit, Uber, Via, and Zipcar. They signed the Shared Mobility Principles for Livable Cities today, pledging to prioritize people over vehicles, lower emissions, promote equity and encourage data sharing, among other goals.

The companies estimated they provide about 77 million passenger trips per day in cities around the world. The Shared Mobility Principles offer a vision for the future of cities, and creates alignment between the city governments, private companies, and NGOs working to make them more livable.

These companies and a few others — Waymo, Apple, Tesla, other automakers and automotive suppliers — are expected to be at the center of all of it. Their roles and corporate identities will be transforming, but that will take shape well after 2030.

And in other news……..

Uber and other mobile apps fighting California’s new labor law:  California’s leading mobile app companies — Uber, Lyft, DoorDash, Postmates, and Instacart — will be fighting the state’s new law, AB 5, that was approved and signed by the governor in September. AB 5 will essentially be making drivers employees after it becomes enacted on January 1. The Silicon Valley mobility companies are backing what’s called the Protect App-Based Drivers & Services Act, which will become a ballot initiative for the November 2020 election once enough Californians sign a request to have it placed on that ballot. Uber, Lyft, and DoorDash have each contributed $30 million to get the initiative approved by voters; Postmates and Instacart are each contributing $10 million. If enacted, their law would cancel AB 5; it’s being written to ensure drivers and couriers can continue to be independent contractors with flexible work hours. Drivers have been marching in support of the new initiative, which will have incentives built in such as guaranteeing they receive at least 120 percent of minimum wage while on the job. It would reverse the new rules that AB 5 has created for the state. Legal battles are likely to take place in the state’s courts, with class-action lawsuits for workers and suits filed by the mobile app companies attempting to thwart AB 5. For now, Uber and the other Silicon Valley startups are being quiet about how their drivers will be treated after January 1 — if the companies will follow AB 5, or if it will be ignored as they scramble to organize their lobbying and legal battles.

Ford v Ferrari:  For car buffs and racing fans, “Ford v Ferrari” will be a real treat. Released in theaters this coming Friday, the movie dramatizes the 1966 Le Mans 24-hour endurance race, where legendary designer Carroll Shelby’s Ford GT40 was able to knock out reigning champion Ferrari. Mat Damon plays Shelby and Christian Bale plays maverick driver Ken Miles. The filmmakers borrowed cars shown in the film from California-based Shelby Legendary Cars and its parent company, Superformance.

Uber and Lyft riders not happy with LAX:  Airline passengers coming in to Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) have to wait longer now to get into their Uber and Lyft rides. Uber and Lyft passengers can no longer wait for the car to arrive curbside at terminals; they have to get on what’s called the LAX-it shuttle and be taken to an offsite station to meet their drivers. The airport continues constructing a major changeover, with a new people mover being set up to carry passengers across the expanding terminals. LAX ground transportation guidelines have been changing for a few years now, and passengers have become more agitated with the wait time and gridlock at the airport with continued construction and roadblocks. Airport administrators hope that setting up the new ride-hailing station will reduce traffic overall for drivers dropping off, and picking up, family and friends on the LAX terminal loop. Getting a ride from Uber and Lyft had been a convenient, cost effective transportation option in the past few years. That’s all changing now, with much of that efficiency being taken away. Air travelers and those driving them have been avoiding LAX whenever possible as traffic has gotten worse. Solutions for travelers include going to another nearby airport whenever possible. However, many cross country and international flights have to go in and out of LAX — and not the Orange County, Long Beach, or Ontario Airports. So changes at LAX greatly affect regular travels living and working in the LA and OC area. For taxi, chauffeured transportation, and shuttle operators, LAX’s changes affecting Uber and Lyft are just deserts for stringent and costly regulations imposed on them for several decades by airports and cities. Uber and Lyft are facing more regulations and fees in London, and the companies can expect government entities around the world to extend more of their own rules and fees as ride hailing continues expanding rapidly in these markets.

BYD Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. announced last week that they have signed an agreement to establish a joint company to research and develop battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The new R&D company, which will work on designing and developing BEVs (including platforms) and related parts, is anticipated to be established in China in 2020, with BYD and Toyota to evenly share 50 percent of the total capital needed. Additionally, BYD and Toyota plan to staff the new company by transferring engineers and the jobs currently involved in related R&D from their respective companies.

How a major oil refiner is earning GHG credits in California

For anyone wondering how things are going in California with compliance to AB 32 and the 2016 revision demanding that greenhouse gas emissions be scaled back 40 percent to 1990 levels by 2030, here’s a quick case study. Marathon Petroleum Co. is asking for permission to generate Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credits at its Tesoro refinery in Martinez, located in the East Bay of the San Francisco Bay Area. California Air Resources Board posted a refinery project application for public comment on Sept. 20, which will close on Sept. 30, 2019.

You can read CARB’s summary of the project, which the agency said it plans to endorse if all the received comments are addressed satisfactorily by Marathon. In 2017, the company took on an electrification project that replaced a natural gas-fired turbine with an electric motor that drives the refrigeration compressor at the alkylation unit. The project also reduces criteria air pollutants and toxic air contaminants emitted by the refinery. (By the way, the Tesoro brand name is going away following a 2017 rebranding as Andeavor Corp. and a $23.3 billion merger last year of Andeavor and Marathon. Now everything falls under the Marathon corporate logo.)

The Martinez refinery has crude oil capacity of 161,000 barrels per calendar day (bpcd), and employs about 740 workers. Marathon’s other California location, the Los Angeles Tesoro refinery based in Wilmington, has crude oil capacity at 363,000 bpcd, about 1,620 employees, and is the largest refinery on the west coast. Marathon is earning additional LCFS and other California credits at the Watson Cogeneration Plant located within the Wilmington refinery’s complex. The  cogeneration plant produces 400 megawatts for local refineries and sells excess electricity to the local utility grid. Marathon and Tesoro bought former majority owner BP’s share in 2012.

Marathon explained to investors in its annual report that the company has to meet compliance with the state’s stringent climate change and clean air rules — and LCFS credits and the state’s cap and trade quarterly auction system are the best ways to hit the target. “We may experience a decrease in demand for refined products due to an increase in combined fleet mileage or due to refined products being replaced by renewable fuels. Demand for our refined products also may decrease as a result of low carbon fuel standard programs or electric vehicle mandates,” Marathon said in its 2018 annual report.

The LCFS requires a gradual reduction in carbon intensity, reaching a 10 percent reduction in 2020, and last year CARB extended that out to 20 percent by 2030. CARB sees LCFS working well, helping the state meet its 3 percent annual GHG reduction targets and helping to clean the air at some of the nation’s most polluted metro zones. It’s also spurred innovation in low-carbon transportation fuels such as hydrogen, electricity, biodiesel, and renewable natural gas.

Oil companies and refineries have done their share of pushing the state to rollback some of the stringent and costly requirements that the oil industry (and others such as power plants) has to meet. But more of the battle was against farmers and ethanol producers over blocking extending the national E-10 gasoline standard to E-15 or higher. California’s compliance options have been more viable for some of the oil companies and refineries.

In June, CARB reached a $1.36 million settlement with Tesoro and owner Marathon for violating the LCFS. The company had informed CARB of its misreporting of its transportation fuels sold in California. Marathon does seem to accept the challenges of doing business in California and probably won’t be pulling the shutters on its refineries anytime soon. While there are less expensive states to do business in, California is a major market for oil shipping, refining, and keeping gas stations supplied.

It’s been a win-win scenario for California with GHG reductions and well-funded clean transportation and renewable energy programs coming from compliance. In October, CARB approved a $483 million plan to fund clean car rebates, zero-emission transit and school buses, clean trucks, and other innovative, clean transportation and mobility pilot projects. Of that total, $455 million came from the cap-and-trade program, and the remaining $28 million came from the Air Quality Improvement Program. Another recent contribution came from $92 million in LCFS credit funds supporting transportation electrification in 2016.

California’s LCFS is being adopted in other states and Canada, and its ZEV mandates and clean vehicle incentives have followed a similar path. The state led a federal lawsuit filing on Friday that includes 22 other states against the Trump administration’s move to revoke their rights to enact fuel economy and emissions rules outside the national standard. It includes those 13 states that had joined California’s coalition following its vehicle emissions rules — but it also includes states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina that Trump had won in the 2016 election. It’s a an age-old battle in the US: state rights vs. Washington’s ultimate power; and it shows the wide polarity between the Trump administration and the state of California.

Toyota rolling out new EV lineup, Renault refreshes ZEO

Toyota EV lineup based on new platform:  Toyota is working hard at shedding its image as a major automaker lagging way behind on electric vehicles. The company has unveiled six new battery electric vehicle concepts it will roll out before 2025.
The new electric vehicles, with the working name of EV-e, will have long wheelbases, plenty of interior space, camera mirrors, and ventilated front corners with automated driving sensors. The company is showing off life-sized clay concepts to tell the story. They represent a lineup that Toyota designers have been working on since 2016, based on the Toyota New Global Architecture (e-TNGA) modular platform
It ties into a previously announced larger goal of bringing more than 10 EVs to the market by the early 2020s. One of these, the electric C-HR subcompact crossover, will come out next year and will be based on the existing nameplate; and there will be other electric versions of its lineup.
Toyota expects demand for EVs to go way beyond cars and sedans. The e-TNGA platform will potentially house EVs that could include a three-row SUV, a sports car, and a small crossover.

Fuel cell vehicles getting ready to take off in China:  The man credited with bringing electric vehicles to China is now focusing on hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles.
China’s science and technology minister, Wan Gang, a former Audi executive, will be continuing the country’s subsidy program for hydrogen-powered vehicles as EVs see incentives wane and phase out next year. He’ll be leading the Chinese government committing resources to developing fuel-cell vehicles.
“We should look into establishing a hydrogen society,” said Wan, who’s now a vice chairman of China’s national advisory body for policy making, a role that ranks higher than minister. “We need to move further toward fuel cells.”
Shares of some hydrogen-related companies rose after Wan’s interview was published on June 9. Wan has a lot of influence on the market, being credited with leading China into becoming the dominant EV market in the world with half of its sales.
Wan sees electric cars dominating inner-city traffic in the near future, while hydrogen-powered buses and trucks could become commonplace on highways for long-distance travel.
He understands that fuel-cell vehicles have quite a long way to go with only about 1,500 of them on Chinese roads, versus more than 2 million battery electric vehicles. He’s championed three selling points that will carry over to hydrogen-powered vehicles: boosting economic growth, tackling China’s dependence on oil imports, and its mounting levels of air pollution.
He dismisses the list of roadblocks that typically come up over fuel-cell vehicles going mass market.
“We will sort out the factors that have been hindering the development of fuel-cell vehicles,” Wan said.
It’s no secret that the 66-year-old began his return to China by studying and researching the fuel cell industry himself—he developed three FCVs under a series called Chao Yue (meaning “to surpass”) during his time from 2003 and 2005 (link in Chinese) as chief scientist for China’s 863 Program.
Toyota Motor Corp. will supply its fuel cell vehicle technology to major Chinese automaker Beijing Automotive Group Co. (BAIC) as it seeks to expand business in the world’s largest auto market. BAIC’s commercial vehicle division will manufacture buses powered by Toyota’s fuel cell system. The production of the buses may increase toward the 2022 Winter Olympics to be held in Beijing.

News Briefs:
New Zoe:  Renault’s deal with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles appears to be over for now, and life goes on. The French company just unveiled a refreshed version of this popular Zoe small electric car. The company says it will be getting 242 miles per charge based on the new WLTP conditions.WLTP was released nearly two years ago by a United Nations working group to resolve criticism of the previous NEDC standard. It’s goal is to provide uniform and more realistic test conditions worldwide. Extra power and range will come from a 52 kWh battery, and a powerful 100kW electric motor. It also has a restyled exterior and new colors.

Volvo working with NVIDIA:  The Volvo Group has signed an agreement with NVIDIA to jointly develop the decision making system of autonomous commercial vehicles and machines. The two companies want to bring autonomous trucking and freight hauling to highways built on NVIDIA’s full software stack for sensor processing, perception, map localization and path planning It could serve a wide client base in freight transport, refuse and recycling collection, public transport, construction, mining, forestry, and more. Separately, Volvo is tasing out what it’s named Vera, an electric, autonomous truck being tested moving goods from a logistics center to a port terminal in Gothenburg, Sweden. It’s part of a new collaboration between Volvo Trucks and the ferry and logistics company, DFDS.

EVs at Disneyland:  Anaheim Resort Transportation (ART) will be bringing 40 BYD all-electric buses to its fleet serving Disneyland. Visitors to California’s most popular theme park can manage admission tickets, public and private transportation all in one app. ART’s new app RideART combines everything necessary for a seamless trip to Disneyland’s Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge.

Volvo and Uber:  Volvo Cars and Uber are jointly developing production-level autonomous vehicles, the next step in their strategic collaboration that started in 2016. For now, the Volvo XC90 SUV that was just displayed is the first Volvo production car that in combination with Uber’s AV system is capable of fully driving itself. The XC90 base vehicle is equipped with key safety features that allow Uber to easily install its own self-driving system, enabling the possible future deployment of self-driving cars in Uber’s network for shared rides.

It ain’t over till it’s over:  CEO Elon Musk and his company have been hit hard in the past year on several fronts, but new vehicle sales is offsetting some of that damage. Edmunds.com estimated that Tesla’s May sales were up 71 percent from the same month last year, which is much higher than any other automaker selling any kind of vehicle in the U.S. market. It was the central theme at Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting on Tuesday. Scrutiny has been pervasive recently about a poor quarterly earnings report and battery fires in Teslas. Some car shoppers aren’t happy with window sticker prices, but long-term, it’s not really an issue, the CEO said. “I want to be clear: there is not a demand problem,” Musk said at the beginning of his presentation. “Absolutely not.”

 

Adoption of autonomous vehicles may take longer than hoped for, Tesla trying to clean up SEC fight and poor quarterly report

Buying into self-driving vehicles:  What’s it going to take for autonomous vehicles to become typical on city streets? Perhaps longer than advocates of the advanced technology had hoped for. In a new study by Reuters/Ipsos, half the respondents believe that autonomous vehicles won’t be as safe as vehicles currently on roads. Nearly two-thirds of the U.S. adults participating in the survey said they would not buy a fully autonomous vehicle, and the same amount balked at the prospect of paying significantly more for the added features. AVs will be staying in the test phase for a few more years. Companies such as General Motors, Tesla, Waymo, Alphabet, Uber, and Lyft, will continue testing the technology and trying out convenient mobility and shared ride experiences for users. Fleets will continue playing an important role in advancement of the technology through projects such as truck platooning, electric automated shuttle vans, and urban delivery showing positive signs of potential for adoption. Safe travel is a key issue, as Tesla and Uber have discovered in fatal incidents involving AV technology in recent years. But as marketers of electric vehicles know, building up mass adoption of a radical new technology takes millions of miles and a few years of positive driver experiences.

Electric automated trucks:  Speaking of adoption of the new technology, a new report by Wards Intelligence says it will take until the early 2020s for new electric and automated trucks to take root. Medium-duty truck fleets will lead the way in electrification, but “long haul will probably be the last to see electrification because they’ll probably need fuel cells to get the range they need, and those are still in development,” said Megatrends 2019 Trucking author, Jim Mele. Trucking fleets want to see longer range and faster fueling, so fuel cell trucks may have an edge here — with Nikola Motor and Toyota poised to take the lead.

Tesla and SEC dispute settlement and quarterly report:  Tesla is still trying to clean up problems that have been building in the past year. Tesla CEO Elon Musk was “very happy” about a federal district court judge telling the company and the Securities Exchange Commission to settle the SEC’s complaint out of court. The SEC asked the court to hold Musk in contempt for violating their previous settlement over a tweet they thought violated rules over what the publicly traded company can divulge or express opinions over. This time around, the SEC filed a complaint in court over a photo musk had posted on Twitter of the electric automaker’s manufacturing plant — that Musk said would be able to produce 500,000 vehicles in 2019; he recanted that tweet, going back to the original forecast of 400,000 units being what the company expects to deliver. Another tough one has been reporting to investors that sales saw a big drop in the first quarter of this year. About 63,000 Tesla vehicles were delivered in the first quarter — a 31% drop compared to the prior quarter and the the largest drop ever for the company. Some commentators have wondered if an April 19th event for Tesla investors on new autonomous vehicle improvements will be an attempt to deflection attention on the poor performance.

Welcome to 2019, and what to look for in clean transportation and mobility

All-new electrified models:

  • Audi joined the electric vehicle race with the Audi e-tron crossover SUV, its first all-electric production model. The e-tron gets over 200 miles per charge and shows of a luxury design and has all-wheel drive performance.
  • The Jaguar I-Pace was launched, with a sporty design and luxury appointments, and a 240-mile all-electric driving range.
  • The Porsche Cayenne E-Hybrid is an all-new version of the plug-in hybrid model. It’a powered by a 3.0-liter gas engine and a 136 hp electric motor.
  • The Range Rover P400e is a plug-in hybrid variant of the Range Rover SUV. It comes with a 2.0-liter gas engine and a 114 hp electric motor.
  • The Hyundai Kona is now available in an all-electric variant that delivers 258 miles of range.
  • The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV finally made it to America. The full-size SUV runs off of a 2.0-liter gas engine and two electric motors, plus greater efficiency and AWD.
  • The all-new Volvo XC40 compact SUV, the first model built on Volvo’s Compact Modular Architecture (CMA), features an efficient four-cylinder Drive-E powertrain.
  • Toyota has changes to its hybrid lineup. The Avalon Hybrid is longer and lower and higher mpg, with its 2.5-liter four-cylinder engine and all-new Toyota Hybrid System II powertrain. The all-new Lexus ES 300h comes with a fourth-generation hybrid system delivering a class-leading 44 combined mpg. The Lexus UX entry-level luxury model now comes in the UX 250h hybrid version.
  • The Honda Insight comes in its third-generation version with an advanced two-motor hybrid system that delivers an EPA estimated 55 highway mpg.
  • Kia and Hyundai will launch electric crossovers in 2019, named the Niro and Kona respectively. Hyundai also has a new fuel cell vehicle, the Nexo, available in regions where it can access hydrogen filling stations.
  • On the commercial vehicle and fleet side, Workhorse Group has closed a financing round of $35 million with Marathon Asset Management, with $25 million being a revolving credit line to meeting existing and future purchase orders of its electric trucks.
  • Daimler Trucks is leading a $155-million investment round in electric bus maker Proterra; with Tao Capital Partners, a San Francisco investment firm, as the other lead investor. Daimler sees a growing market for electric buses as public transit districts and school systems in the U.S. and around the world move to reduce emissions. Proterra and Daimler also have an agreement to explore the electrification of a few Daimler heavy-duty vehicles.

Plug-in vehicle sales:  Finalized plug-in vehicle sales figures will be coming out in the next few days for December and all of 2018; but so far, it was clearly a year of record-setting plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles sales in the U.S. Through November, U.S. sales were at 312,887 for plug-in vehicles, compared to 194,479 for all of 2017, according to Electric Drive Transportation Association. Assuming 350,000 units will be sold in 2018, the increase would be about 55% over the previous year. InsideEVs estimates the Tesla Model 3 closed the month with 25,250 sold in the U.S. That compares to 18,650 sold in November. Lately, there’s been a wide gap between the Model 3 and every other plug-in vehicle sold in the U.S., with top sellers like the Tesla Model S and Model X, Chevrolet Bolt and Volt, and Toyota Prius Prime, each hovering somewhere around 3,000 units sold per month. The Nissan Leaf was able to see its first sales increase in a long time.

Mobility going mainstream:  Mobility services like ride-sharing and car-sharing are moving beyond initial excitement by early adopters and over to the mainstream. The Mobility Revolution: A Primer for Fleet Managers, explores four trends that are shaping the near-term future of vehicles and transportation — connected, electric, shared, and autonomous vehicles. The study was sponsored by NAFA Foundation as a tool for fleet professionals to prepare for the near future. The pressure is on for fleet managers and operators to reduce fuel consumption and carbon emissions, make their fleets safer, and to try out connected, automated systems for these goals and cost containment. The paper delves into ways that fleets are already testing and exploring these changing technologies and methods, featuring a few successful case studies. Another watershed moment in this new year will be seeing ride-hailing company Lyft beat much-larger rival Uber in filing for an initial public offering. Lyft has been valued at about $15 billion, with its IPO slated for the first half of 2019, sources have told Reuters. Uber is expected to pursue an IPO next year that could value it at about $120 billion. Room rental company Airbnb Inc, valued at $31 billion, is also seen listing in 2019.

Autonomous vehicle test projects:  When, oh when, will autonomous vehicles move beyond the testing phase and be given the green light? It’s not clear, but more companies are entering the testing phase in California and others states. Uber is starting to recover from nine months ago when one of its autonomous test vehicles struck and killed a pedestrian in Tempe, Ariz. The return to road testing in Pittsburgh will be at a much smaller scale than the company’s previous program. Another significant event was learning that Alphabet’s Waymo self-driving Chrysler Pacifica plug-in hybrids have been through nearly two dozen attacks from irate locals in the Chandler, Ariz.. Over the past two years, irate locals have expressed frustration with tire slashings and pelting these vehicles with rocks. One local resident made multiple attempts to run Waymo vehicles off the road using his Jeep Wrangler, including driving toward one of the Waymo minivans head-on before turning away. He said it came from a Waymo vehicle nearly hitting his 10-year old son while the boy was playing in a neighborhood cul-de-sac.

The battery war continues:  Battery maker 24M just received $22 million in funding for its SemiSolid lithium-ion battery that would beat Tesla and other automakers in electric vehicle driving range and energy storage. The startup company, made up of Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) scientists and a former A123 Systems co-founder, offers longer driving range, lower battery cost, and faster manufacturing time. The company is also targeting the grid energy storage market, competing with Tesla’s energy storage unit, along with Daimler, BMW, Renault, Nissan, and other automakers. The SemiSolid speeds up the manufacturing process by cutting out a number of steps typically used in EV battery production. It also cuts down the need for materials such as copper, aluminum, and plastics. That will bring down the battery’s costs and the amount of energy needed to charge up the EV batteries.

Renewable energy trends:  Renewable energy went up a point in 2018 — up to 8% of U.S. power generation through the third quarter of 2018. There’s been a lot of concern over America’s trade war with China that includes renewable energy, but demand continues to grow. One study sees growth continuing in 2019, based on emerging policies that support renewable growth; expanding investor interest in the sector; and advancing technologies that boost wind and solar energy’s value to the grid, asset owners, and customers. Growth was driven by declining wind and solar generation costs, improvements in battery storage, and grid operators’ growing experience in integrating intermittent renewable power into the grid. Demand was strong, as well, with voluntary procurement (purchases not driven solely by government incentives) representing 52% of utility-scale solar projects in development and 73% of projects announced in the first half of 2018.

The trade war may change course:  The U.S. and China may be ready to end, or adjust, the trade war started last year by President Donald Trump. A U.S. government delegation will be traveling to Beijing next week to hold trade talks with Chinese officials, according to two people familiar with the matter who spoke with Bloomberg. The Trump administration launching the trade war — which added more than $200 billion worth of imports from China by the third quarter of 2018 — is considered a key factor in destabilizing oil prices last year. It’s also hurting China’s weakening auto sales, which is seeing its first decline in two decades — during a time U.S. auto sales are expected to decline. Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk and other automotive executives were pleased to see China reduce tariffs to 15 percent from 40 percent after that meeting. Tesla was able to lower prices for its Model S, Model X, and Model 3, which are scheduled to be delivered to customers early next year. BMW AG and Daimler AG were able to cut prices on their U.S.-made luxury vehicles, bringing prices down to the level there were at before the extra duty was added last July. Automakers in the U.S. are waiting to see whether Trump will be hitting vehicle imports with tariffs.

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and stations:  Hyundai has delivered its first Nexo hydrogen fuel cell SUV in the U.S. market. The 2019 Nexo – which replaces the Tucson Fuel Cell – can go up to 380 miles, starting at $58,300 (including $13,000 on its hydrogen fueling card). It joins the Toyota Mirai and Honda Clarity in the fuel cell vehicle market.
The California Energy Commission and California Air Resources Board released a report in late December with some interesting numbers:

  • Public support and public funding remain necessary to achieve the 100-station goal, and more funding will be needed to support the 200-station goal.
  • The current network of 65 stations (including those still in development) provides enough fuel for the existing FCEV population, but capacity will need to double by 2024 to meet projected FCEV growth.
  • Estimated greenhouse gas emissions reductions from funded stations are nearly 76,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year by 2024.
  • More than 5,000 FCEVs are registered in California as of October 2018, nearly double the number from the previous year.

Uber and Lyft going public, Highlights from AltCar Expo speakers

Ride-hailing firms going public:  Uber and Lyft, the top rivals for the U.S. ride-hailing market, are engaged in another race to see who can launch a successful stock market public offering first. While Uber went through disastrous upheaval not long ago, CEO Uber Dara Khosrowshahi, who took over a little more than a year ago, appears to be reviving the ride-hailing giant. Uber may be getting a 2019 offering at a $120 billion valuation, far above recent private market levels. Lyft, meanwhile, could find a public valuation of over $15 billion, which is much closer to IPOs than what some analysts expect Uber to find next year in initial market value.

Musk going to Mars:  While 2018 is turning out the worst of times for Tesla CEO Elon Musk, things are looking brighter on the space transport side of the business — with his grand vision of taking passengers to Mars. His SpaceX company’s Big Falcon Booster will see a factory being built in the Port of Los Angeles, 15 miles south of the company’s headquarters in Hawthorne. SpaceX is getting a lot of support for its Mars mission from NASA, along with contracts for cargo delivery. Another federal agency, the Securities and Exchange Commission, has taken a dim view of Musk, but that’s getting worked out with a federal judge approving Musk’s settlement with the SEC. Musk’s mission to Mars goes back before he came over to Tesla. In 2002, he founded the space travel and exploration company through his frustration that NASA wasn’t doing enough to get humans to Mars. It’s typical to see him featured in interviews wearing his “Occupy Mars” t-shirt to get the message across.

Highlights from AltCar Expo:  AltCar Expo speakers talked about the key issues that government regulators, fleet managers, automakers, and technology partners are facing deploying clean vehicles and supporting clean fuels and energy in California. The popular ride-and-drive was a showcase for green vehicles of all types, including the debut of Electra Meccanica’s Solo single-passenger electric vehicle. The Audi etron 55 quattro was displayed and discussed in a panel by Audi of America’s Spencer Reeder; and attendees had a preview of the new Chanje V8100 Generation 2 Model of the electric van by the Chinese manufacturer.

Terry Tamminen, who now serves as CEO at the Leonardo DiCaprio Foundation, talked about the lack of clear understanding in the federal government over climate change and its devastating impact from Hurricane Michael and other signs of dire conditions. Former head of California’s Environmental Protection Agency and later Cabinet Secretary under Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Tammimen served as architect of key legislative changes including the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, the Hydrogen Highway Network, and the Million Solar Roofs Initiative. He sees California playing a critical role in the future of government policy and supporting growth in clean transportation. The state’s mandate to have 100% renewable energy by 2045, and tapping into more renewables to power the state’s energy grid, are signs of the state’s commitment to fight climate change. The cost of electricity dropping from $4 a watt when Schwarzenegger took office to under $1 a watt now is a sign the economic dynamics are coming together, as well, he said.

Santa Monica city council member, and Innogy e-Mobility US strategy and market development head, Terry O’Day, had a conversation with annual AltCar award winner Phillip Kobernick, Logistics Service Manager for County of Alameda, about the latest in Bay Area developments for clean vehicles and infrastructure. The county’s fleet now has 300 hybrid vehicles and 80 all-electric vehicles in its 1,300-vehicle fleet. Hybrid police patrol cars, motorpools, and car-sharing programs are supporting these efforts, he said. The County of Alameda and other government fleets in the region are tapping into incentives for chargers being purchased and installed, with the county reaching about 1,400 charger locations, he said. Kobernick offered three suggestions for meeting sustainability targets: gaining better data from EV usage patterns, similar to what’s available now on gasoline-engine vehicles; more charging options based on fleet vehicle duty cycles — such as when Level 1 charging can work and nighttime charging; and becoming smart users in the electricity grid — how to work with utilities on avoiding being penalized with extra fees during peak demand periods. He’s also interested in exploring whether battery swapping might work in EVs, such as police patrol cars that don’t have downtime to wait for charging.

Stay tuned for an upcoming video link in Green Auto Market that will show the Friday speakers. That will also include “Is California Past the Turning Point?” moderated by Marco Anderson, Southern California Association of Governments and featuring Clinton Bench of UCLA Transportation, Kobernick, and Ken Reichley of Southern California Edison. “Are Auto Makers Truly Committed to Low- and No-Emissions Technology?” was moderated by Sue Carpenter of KPCC “Take Two” and featured Anthony Luzi of Electra Meccanica and Spencer Reeder of Audi of America. Reeder also discussed where Volkswagen’s Electrify America program will be going in the next couple of years.

Amazon bringing in delivery fleet operators, Jaguar Land Rover upping its EV investments

Amazon building delivery network:  Amazon has taken another step to disrupt transportation through its new Delivery Service Partners program, which is creating a network of small business owners operating fleets of up to 40 delivery vehicles. Hundreds of small business owners may join, which could further take share away from UPS, FedEx, and the US Postal Service. Those joining the new network will get training and use of logistics technology from Amazon. Participating businesses can get discounts on vehicles, uniforms, fuels, and insurance. In recent years, Amazon has been building its logistics and transportation presence through air freight delivery, heavy-duty trucks, and the Amazon Flex network of independent contractors. President Donald Trump has criticized Amazon for getting the U.S. Postal Service to deliver its packages at bargain prices and for paying “little or no taxes to state & local governments,” according to one of his tweets.

Looking at the Big Picture: Green Auto Market’s take on developments impacting the auto industry, global economy, and clean transportation.

Jaguar Land Rover has upped its investments in electrified vehicles by 26% — now up to 13.5 billion pounds ($18 billion) over the next three years. The British automaker plans to offer electrified versions of all its nameplates. The company has seen its diesel vehicle sales drop and low profitability led to negative cash flow. JLR plans to produce by 2025 three versions of all its vehicles, including those powered by petroleum fuels, batteries, or a combination of both. The automaker will only offer all-electric versions of its product lineup if there is enough demand, a company spokesman said. This year has seen introduction of the Jaguar I-Pace all-electric crossover. The company plans to use its China factory to produce an EV such as the I-Pace, where competitive brands Audi to Mercedes are investing money to dominate that part of the market.

Volt getting faster charger:  General Motors has cut charging time down for the 2019 Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid nearly in half by doubling the kilowatt capacity. The new 7.2 kilowatt charging system reduces the charging time from about 4.5 hours to 2.3 hours with a 240-volt outlet, GM said Thursday. The enhanced charging system is standard on the Volt Premier trim and will be available as an option on LT trim for the 2019 model year. Range will remain the same on the 2019 model, with 53 miles of battery only and total range of 420 miles on gasoline and electricity.

Tesla Model 3 hits more snags:  Tesla’s struggles to hit Model 3 production continue, with a fourth assembly line added this month under a tent at its Fremont, Calif., plant. Reaching the 5,000 units per week by the end of June isn’t looking good. Battery supplier Panasonic has been facing supply shortages, which would affect Tesla at the Nevada Gigafactory. There have also been two fires at the Fremont plant this month that forced temporary production halts. Reaching the overall target has been a missed mark for Tesla ever since the beginning of Model 3 output.

Hyundai enters energy storage market:  Hyundai Motor Group is working with Finnish corporation Wärtsilä for second-life electric vehicle batteries to reach the growing energy storage market. The global partnership will combine HMG’s expansion in electric vehicles with Wärtsilä’s growing energy business, which includes 67 GW of installed power plants and advanced energy storage technologies and software created through the acquisition of Greensmith Energy. It will tap into Wärtsilä’s existing customer and channel networks across 177 countries globally. Hyundai joins up with several other global automakers, such as Nissan, Tesla, and BMW, now serving the energy storage market.

Lyft raising more capital:  Ride-hailing firm Lyft has raised $600 million in a funding round led by Fidelity Management & Research Company, a subsidiary of Fidelity Investments and a prior Lyft investor. The company could raise up to $1 billion if its able to secure a strategic investor. Prior rounds have included General Motors and Chinese ride-hailing leader Didi Chuxing. Lyft has raised over $4.91 billion in venture capital and private equity funding, according to Crunchbase data. It’s market valuation is now at about $15 billion, double what it was during an April 2017 valuation. Lyft continues to battle Uber for ride-hailing and ride-sharing customers, and has been slowly expanding its presence beyond the U.S. market.

Kroger entering autonomous delivery business:  Grocery retailer Kroger is offering same-day autonomous vehicle deliveries through a partnership with self-driving vehicle startup Nuro. A pilot project will start this fall in several markets yet to be announced. It will use Nuro’s electric pod vehicles for short-range deliveries. The startup hopes to have a strong presence in “last-mile delivery” in markets such as groceries, dry cleaning, meals, an item left at a friends house, and other services. Kroger, which runs the Ralph’s grocery chain, has been getting ready to compete directly with Amazon and its grocery delivery service.

 

GM wants to start robotaxi service in 2019, Study looks at cost of fueling gasoline-powered cars versus electric

GM asks for approval of electric, autonomous rides by 2019:  General Motors could be launching public ride-hailing services in autonomous vehicles as early as next year, according to a petition filed with NHTSA. GM has asked for a Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards waiver on 16 rules covering vehicles with human drivers but that don’t apply to self-driving cars. If granted, GM could launch as many as 2,500 autonomous vehicles a year starting in 2019. The automaker described the “Cruise AV” self-driving vehicle in the filing, which is based on the Chevy Bolt and includes fourth-generation AV technology from its Cruise Automation subsidiary. It includes five Lidars, 16 cameras, and 21 radars for safety and functional, efficient driving. GM says its would be a type of robotaxi providing ride-hailing services. GM’s Maven carsharing division and its investment in Lyft could provide channels for bringing these electric, autonomous rides to customers.

Federal report on fuel economy:  A federal government report said that 2016 model year vehicles hit a record 24.7 miles per gallon, just 0.1 mpg increase, according to the Environmental Protection Agency . It’s projected to reach 25.2 mpg for the 2017 model year, the study said. The increase for the 2016 model year came with a few automakers buying credits to meet federal requirements. Volvo and Jaguar Land Rover have emission deficits but still have three years to reach the compliance level. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles had the biggest deficit but had credits saved up to meet the federal requirements. Dan Becker, director of the Safe Climate Campaign, said that the 2016 fuel economy improvement fell far short of the 1 mpg target that the Obama-era rules called for and that vehicle technology is available for vehicles to meet the standard.

Gasoline Vs. electric:  Michael Sivak and Brandon Schoettle of the University of Michigan’s Sustainable Worldwide Transportation just authored a study comparing the costs of driving electric and gasoline-powered vehicles in the U.S. overall and by individual states. The fueling cost for charging electric vehicles is only half the cost of internal combustion engine vehicles, according to findings. The study found that the average fuel cost for operating a typical new gasoline-engine vehicle in the U.S. is $1,117, with a maximum of $1,509 in Hawaii and a minimum of $993 in Alabama. The current average annual cost of driving a typical new battery electric vehicle in the United States is $485, with a maximum of $1,106 in Hawaii and a minimum of $367 in Louisiana.

 

Ghosn says Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance rolling out a dozen new EVs, IHS Markit takes a look at the future of personal mobility

Newsworthy:  The Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance will be rolling out 12 new all-electric models using common platforms by 2022, according to CEO Carlos Ghosn. Plug-in hybrid models will also be utilized, coming from Mitsubishi’s experience with the Outlander PHEV. Two other utility plug-in hybrids will be coming to market over the next two years. The alliance companies have collectively already sold more than a half million plug-in electrified vehicles…………. Solid-state batteries are gaining more support for fast charging, long-range electric vehicles for the next decade. Fisker, Inc., has filed patents for these types of batteries, and expects to see them used in mass-scale production of its EMotion electric sedan around 2023. Toyota believes enough in the technology to launched EVs with energy stored in solid-state batteries around 2022…………. Major Chinese automaker Geely will be buying up U.S. flying car startup Terrafugia for an undisclosed amount. Terrafugia plans to bring its first flying car to market in 2019. The company will remain headquartered in the U.S…………… The BMW Group announced that by 2020, the company will only sources its electricity from renewable energy; that’s up from 63% of it coming from renewables at the end of 2016. The automaker made the announcement during the UN Climate Change Conference in Bonn, Germany.

Going Mobile:  Plug-in electrified vehicles will make up 30% of new vehicle sales in four critical markets by 2040 – China, the U.S., Europe, and India – according to a new study by IHS Markit. You’ll notice that the percentage isn’t anywhere near 100% if fossil-fuel bans were to be enacted across these four markets. China, India, France, Great Britain, and other markets are considering banning gasoline and diesel powered engines entirely.

Reinventing the Wheel is a new multi-client, scenarios-based research initiative by IHS Markit that combines its energy, automotive and chemical teams for system-wide analysis of the new reality of transportation. It includes the future of mobility and car ownership, which is expected to have a major impact on the energy chosen to power vehicles of the future.

Consumers will be shifting away from car owners to paying for mobility services during the transition time, the study says. By 2040, vehicle miles traveled (VMT) will have grown to an all-time high of around 11 billion miles per year in the four studied markets. That makes for a 65% increase of VMTs from now. Over that times, sales growth of new light-duty vehicles will slow substantially, according to the study. Use of autonomous vehicles will also be a driving force for change.

“A great ‘automotive paradox’—where more travel via car than ever, but fewer cars will be needed by individuals—will be a defining quality of the new automotive future,” said Daniel Yergin, IHS Markit vice chairman. “The shift is just beginning. By 2040, the changes in transportation will be accelerating in a way that will be visible on roads and highways around the world. The pace and degree of this dynamic shift will have significant implications for industry, for public transportation systems and for how people get to work and live their lives – and spend their money on transport.”

While the U.S. may not ban fossil-fuel vehicles and could soften mileage and emissions rules under the Trump administration, market forces will still be at play for EVs to hit the 30% mark across the four major auto markets included in the study. The IHS Markit study concludes that higher fuel economy and emissions standards and reduction in gasoline’s share of new vehicle sales will lead to an aggregate decline for oil that ends up in gas stations during the 2020s. Another tipping point cited in the study will be seeing the cost of EV battery packs drop significantly by the 2030s, making EV costs much more competitive with internal combustion engines.

For Today: Finalists named for Green Car of the Year award, Tata Motors wins first contract to supply electric vehicles

Green Car of the Year nominees:  Five finalists have been named for the 2018 Green Car of the Year award, which will be presented on Nov. 30 during the LA Auto Show’s partner event, AutoMobility LA. Honda received two of the nominations. The 2018 Honda Accord comes with three now powertrain options – two direct-injected and turbocharged 4-cylinder engines and the third generation of Honda’s two-motor hybrid powertrain. The Honda Clarity comes in all-electric, plug-in hybrid, or hydrogen fuel cell options. The Hyundai Ioniq comes in three versions – hybrid, battery electric, and plug-in hybrid. The all-new Nissan Leaf comes with a redesigned look, longer driving range, and Nissan Intelligent Mobility technologies, Toyota’s eighth generation Camry is available with three new powertrains – a 2.5-liter 4-cylinder, 3.5-liter V-6, and a Hybrid powered by the automaker’s next-generation Toyota Hybrid System. The winner will be named at 8:00 am PST on Nov. 30 inside the Technology Pavilion.

BMW forging China JV alliance:  BMW may be forging another alliance with a Chinese automaker to serve that market, which will likely focus on electric vehicles. The German automaker is now creating a joint venture agreement with Great Wall Motor in China, according to two sources familiar with the matter. BMW previously set up a JV in China with Brilliance China Automotive Holdings; the partners produce cars at two plants in Shenyang. The company is now it talks with Great Wall about setting up a JV company to manufacture cars in the eastern city of Changsu, a BMW executive said.

EV sales in India:  Tata Motors has won a major contract with the Indian government to supply an order for 10,000 electric cars. It will be the very first EVs that the major Indian automaker has sold. The country is making efforts to reduce emissions and curb fuel imports. Prime Minister Narendra Modi sees the EV acquisition as a way to support the country’s pledge to ban the sale of internal combustion engine light-vehicles by 2030. Mahindra and Mahindra has so far been India’s only domestic carmaker that currently makes EVs. India is far behind China in EV sales, with China selling about 336,000 units last year versus about 450 in India, according to the International Energy Agency.