This Week’s Top 10: Why Tesla’s stock price has dropped, President Obama signs bill supporting credits for natural gas and EV charging stations

by Jon LeSage, editor and publisher, Green Auto Market 

Here’s my take on the 10 most significant and interesting occurrences during the past week…….

  1. Tesla Motors’ stock price fell below $200 on Tuesday of last week after reaching a high point of $284.89 in September. The price has continued to move back up in the past few days (finishing at $222.60 when the market closed yesterday). The price started declining during the fall in line with a 50% drop in crude oil prices since August. Earlier in December, the average US gasoline price dropped to $2.75 per gallon versus $3.27 a year ago. Along with dropping gas prices, analysts think Tesla stock price decline relates to the company scaling back production of the Model S by 2,000 units after an assembly line took longer than had been planned for. Another development was pushing back the delivery date of the long-delayed Model X crossover to the third quarter of 2015.
  2. President Obama has signed The Tax Increase Prevention Act of 2014 extending the natural gas vehicle fuel credit of .50 cents per gallon equivalent through the end of this year. Natural gas refueling equipment has received a tax credit through the end of this year identical to one being granted to electric vehicle charging stations — a $1,000 credit for home refueling appliances, and a 30-percent investment tax credit up to $30,000 for businesses.
  3. US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations on electric power plant carbon emissions will likely be dragged out a long time. The January 8, 2015, deadline may be missed due to being late in the process of receiving public comments. It’s also likely to hit a roadblock from a more hostile Congress over the next two years. This has been possibly the biggest move by the Obama administration on environmental policy, and it faces an uphill battle. On Friday, the EPA did set the first national standards for disposal of coal ash from coal-fired power plants; coal ash has been classified as solid waste instead of a hazardous material. EPA says the final rule establishes safeguards to protect communities from coal ash impoundment failures and establishes safeguards to prevent groundwater contamination and air emissions from coal ash disposal.
  4. Second generation biofuels should reach $23.9 billion as a global market by 2020, a combined annual growth rate of 49.4% from now until 2020. The market report by Allied Market Research says that while biodiesel is the highest produced second-gen biofuel, cellulosic ethanol should surpass it within the next two years. North America holds the largest regional market share, followed by Europe. Growth drivers should be favorable regulatory policies and the fuel’s environmentally friendly nature.
  5. Job training programs continue: I-CAR has launched the Alternative Fuel Vehicle Damage Analysis and Safety (ALT03) The live, instructor-led program is worth three credit hours and is designed to enhance a collision repair professional’s understanding of how to safely approach all types of alternative fuel vehicles. “Each vehicle will require specific knowledge about the different risk avoidance elements engineered into these vehicles from a propulsion system perspective,” says Josh McFarlin, I-CAR Director of Curriculum & Product Development. “This makes building knowledge on the different alternative fuel vehicle types extremely important.
  6. Carbon War Room has merged with Rocky Mountain Institute in a campaign designed around combatting climate change and accelerating demand and financing for low-carbon solutions that are technically viable and cost effective. Carbon War Room, co-founded by Virgin Group Chairman Richard Branson, has been active in clean transportation including its alliance with Freight Efficiency.org. Rocky Mountain Institute has conducted major studies on electrified transportation. Earlier this year, the two organizations worked on a joint project, the Ten Island Challenge, that’s supporting transitioning Caribbean island energy systems from imported diesel to renewable sources such as wind and solar.
  7. Beverage delivery fleets are increasing fuel efficiency. Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, and Dr. Pepper Snapple Group have increased the fuel economy of their fleets by 12.6% since 2010. The improvements come from an industry-wide initiative in which the three beverage companies agreed to share proprietary data on their truck fleets with the American Beverage Association.
  8. Tesla Motors next week will start a pilot battery swap program with Model S owners. They can set an appointment and show up at the Tesla shop in Harris Ranch, Calif., which is across the street from a few Tesla Superchargers. Right now it’s taking about three minutes to swap these batteries due to the titanium and hardened aluminum ballistic plates shielding the battery pack; the goal is to reach one minute for the swap through further automation and refinements of the vehicle.
  9. It’s taken a long time, but Nissan is getting ready to roll out its NV200- based taxi cabs on the streets of New York City. April 20, 2015 is the start date of the city’s Taxi of Tomorrow program, and it follows a stream of public debate and legal challenges. Nearly all of the older Ford Crown Victoria taxis on the streets of New York will have to convert over to the modified Nissan NV200 vans. Advocates of the NV200 cite benefits for taxi fleets including more room and better visibility for passengers and improved fuel economy for fleet operators.
  10. Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s “hyperloop” high-speed rail project just issued a 76-page report. The project, which is being developed through another of Musk’s companies, SpaceX, acknowledges the project is still in its infancy, but this is the first time since the announcement last year that more details and research findings have been revealed.

 

    How to succeed in green vehicle marketing: Forget about gas prices and focus on clean energy

    Gasoline and oil prices have seen sizable drops recently. Gasoline in the US lately has been averaging $2.41 per gallon versus $3.23 a year ago. As of Dec. 15, WTI crude oil was $55.96 per barrel versus $97.18 a year ago. The consensus opinion among analysts is that petroleum prices should stay down for the next year or so, and will eventually go up to record high prices. That could be somewhere around 2020 through increased government taxes and reduced oil supply driving the pump price of gasoline up to around $10 per gallon.

    In the meantime, there has got to be a better marketing tactic for reaching fleets and consumers and their decision-making process. It looks like reducing greenhouse gas emissions, gaining more freedom from oil dependency, and supporting advanced vehicle technology innovation would be the best ways to go. A new study by the Union of ConcerneGas pricesd Scientists (UCS) offers some convincing resources, as does development of solar energy storage systems.

    UCS has calculated that electric vehicles (EVs) have less “wells-to-wheels” emissions than they did a year ago. Top-selling Nissan Leaf increasing its electric range from 73 miles to 84 miles has helped, and the arrival in the past year of more energy efficient EVs like the BMW i3 has played a part in the improvements. Another UCS study, the “State of Charge,” finds that electricity production is getting cleaned up through reduction in coal generation and increasing renewable energy – helping EV makers and drivers meet their goals of reducing emissions and fossil fuel consumption.

    Solar energy has huge potential for leading the renewable energy front, but it’s still behind wind energy in the US as a source currently being tapped into by utilities. For both solar and wind, one of the biggest challenges for market growth has been the capacity to store that power when the sun goes down (or is limited by storm clouds) and when the wind fades away. These are fluctuating, intermittent energy sources that need storage systems if they stand a chance of meeting load demand and gaining the financial backing they need.

    A new study by GTM Research forecasts the market for solar energy paired with energy storage will surpass $1 billion per year in revenue by 2018 in the US. Installation of 318 cumulative megawatts of storage capacity through 2018 will come from state incentives, falling battery costs, net metering changes, and solid growth in the solar photovoltaics market. Two developments play a part: California’s mandate to procure 1.3 gigawatts of energy storage and Tesla’s Gigafactory will mean that capacity for energy storage will soon reach a tipping point. A federal 30% Investment Tax Credit (ITC), available in certain situations, is also expected to help meet that $1 billion forecast – up from its current $42 million annual revenue.

    California and Hawaii have been the major growth markets for solar power in the US, and more incentives are expected to show up. California, New Jersey, and New York have been offering incentive programs. California’s Small Generation Incentive Program has supported several megawatts’ worth of solar-plus-storage to date.

    It’s typical to see incentives for adding solar power to homes and commercial properties, and occasionally these programs are tied into EV ownership. Solar-powered canopies with charging stations have taken off in California and other states; and solar companies  have made marketing arrangements with automakers to entice EV owners to install solar on their homes – such as SolarCity has done with Honda through its discount solar financing program.

     

      Two social media sites worth the time spent for B2B networking

      GAM on TwitterIf you spend time with young professionals who carry out marketing-communications duties in their jobs, you’ll likely hear about social media sites that are taking off. Lately, that’s been led by Instagram and Pinterest with their visual photo board and video streaming templates. YouTube still dominates the video-sharing front (which has been embedded by its owner, Google), followed by Vimeo. Google+ has been seeing gains in its competition with Facebook; though Facebook has a ridiculously high membership number – 1.2 billion out of 7.1 billion people on planet Earth regularly use Facebook. For companies looking for positive reviews from their customers and increasing search engine rankings in their local markets, Yelp and Foursquare are the leaders.

      My experience has been that Twitter and LinkedIn make for the best use of time for business-to-business (B2B) marketing and networking. To get a look at my sites, search for @GreenAutoMkt on Twitter and Jon LeSage, LeSage Consulting on LinkedIn. I also moderate a group on LinkedIn called Clean Transportation. On Twitter, Green Auto Market is now following nearly 1,200 individuals and groups and is being followed by 438. My LinkedIn page has connections with more than 500 people.

      Twitter and LinkedIn seem to work best for networking with groups of like-minded people. LinkedIn calls itself, the “world’s largest professional network.” Twitter and LinkedIn send users suggested people to make contact with who share interest in similar issues. Along with clean transportation groups, some of the followers and connections have come through social media advocates and content creators; automakers and dealers; freight transportation companies; carsharing and ridesharing companies; transportation planners; autonomous vehicle advocates; and solar power companies.

      They respond best to my postings from Green Auto Market on certain topics – my article last week on  the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach has received several “likes” and comments. Other hot topics have been “Keeping hybrid and electric vehicle sales figures in perspective,” and “Climate change is real for large institutions but it’s not making the case for cost-cutting fleets and consumers.”

      Some of my colleagues complain about social media sites basically being a waste of time; or the source of annoying experiences that may include getting pulled into a debate that goes nowhere. Another commonly heard complaint usually comes from Facebook experiences – that might involve a group of friends and an ex-significant other from high school or college. That can get ugly and lead to people being blocked, or leaving Facebook behind.

      All things considered, social media has become something like what used to be American institutions for social contact; years ago, that might have been pool halls, bars, gentlemen’s clubs, and union halls. These days its more likely to be a Starbucks location, online dating sites, and mobile apps for social media. If you’re spending time and energy getting the word out on your consulting practice, newsletter, or causes you’re quite passionate about, don’t ignore social media – and consider what you can gain from being active on Twitter and LinkedIn.

        This Week’s Top 10: Honda delivers Green Dealer Guide, Carlos Ghosn has fun bragging about Nissan and Renault ZEV sales

        Here’s my take on the 10 most significant and interesting occurrences during the past week…….

        1. Honda dealerHonda’s sustainability drive is being carried forward to its dealer network through its Green Dealer Guide resources. The 93-page guide offers instructions to Honda dealers on making their operations more energy efficient. Methods include installing high-efficiency lighting, using climate-control systems, managing water use, and using renewable energy sources like solar power. This strategy goes well with Honda’s corporate blueprint on environmentally sound practices – which has been impressive enough for the company to win several “greenest automaker” rankings from the Union of Concerned Scientists. The guide has been in the works over the past three years, and now offers its network dealers techniques on saving energy and money. One example is adding an automated thermostat and adjusting lights after business hours, which can save the dealer $7,000 per year and would cut energy consumption by at least 10%.
        2. Convenience, economy, increased awareness, and driving fun and reliable cars are the main reasons Renault-Nissan surpassed its 200,000th zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) in sales, according Carlos Ghosn, chairman and CEO of the Renaualt-Nissan Alliance. Ghosn is very good at championing the cause and made some impressive statements in his LinkedIn post…… The Nissan Leaf is by far the best selling its electric vehicle worldwide – so much so that sales up 20% this year. The Leaf, Renault Zoe and other zero emission vehicles in the automakers product lineup have been driven about four billion kilometers – enough to circle the earth 100,000 times!
        3. Two non-internal combustion engine vehicles made this year’s top rankings in Wards Auto’s “10 Best Engine” annual listing. The BMW i3 was the only one of four battery electric vehicles evaluated for the contest to make the cut. Judges liked the power options, including the i3 Rex gasoline range extender edition. The Hyundai Tucson Fuel Cell also made the top 10; the panelists liked how Hyundai has packaged the fuel-cell stack under the hood – helping to make the entire ownership experience similar to driving a regular internal combustion engine vehicle.
        4. Here’s a huge opportunity: only 4% of companies surveyed by GE Capital have alternative fuel vehicles in their fleet, but more than 55% plan on adding them in the coming years. That comes from a national survey of 409 executives at middle market companies who have responsibility for their company’s vehicle fleets.
        5. Tesla China President Veronica Wu has resigned from her position with Tesla Motors after less than nine months in the job. No details have come out yet on why this might have happened. “We remain confident in the Chinese market,” the company said in an e-mailed statement.
        6. Having trouble managing your analysis of company and fleet greenhouse gas emissions (GHG)? Here’s a guide for corporate environmental health and safety (EHS) officers on approaching methods for accurately calculating GHG emissions for reporting purposes. Regulatory uncertainty means that companies need to stay current on the latest and best methods.
        7. Two leaders from Alabama Clean Fuels Coalition have been named to the Clean Cities Hall of Fame. Executive Director Mark Bentley and President Phillip Wiedmeyer were inducted by National Clean Cities Co-Director Linda Bluestein while representatives from nearly 100 Clean Cities coalitions gathered for the annual coordinator workshop. In 2013, Bentley and Wiedmeyer lead the Alabama coalition as it saved more than three million gallons of petroleum and averted more than 12,000 tons of greenhouse gases through deploying alternative and renewable fuels.
        8. California Energy Commission (CEC) is receiving applications for funding medium- and heavy-duty advanced vehicle technology demonstration projects. Those applications will be received through Jan. 29, 2015. Demonstrations receiving funding must enhance market acceptance of advanced vehicle technologies that will lead to vehicle production and commercialization, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and reduce petroleum use, according to the CEC.
        9. France is pushing for a huge change in its car ownership model – getting rid of diesel-powered cars. About 80% of French motorists drive diesel-powered cars, so the government is launching a car identification system to rate vehicles by the amount of pollution they emit. Taxation is the method that will be used to redirect consumers to more ecologically sound choices.
        10. Only a third of diesel-powered passenger cars have lower cost-of ownership than their non-diesel counterparts. That’s down from 46% of diesel vehicles being cost effective in the 2013 edition of Vincentric’s Diesel Analysis study. Of the 35 diesel vehicles included in the study, only 11 have lower ownership costs than their all-gasoline counterparts. Of these 11, 10 were luxury models – making it even tougher to save any money during diesel vehicle ownership.

         

          Fair competition beats out chosen winner technology as key theme at CALSTART annual meeting

          CALSTART buildingIs the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle the winning technology of the day, or is it plug-in electric vehicles? Natural gas or renewable natural gas? The landscape shaped by regulators, OEMs, infrastructure players, and legislative officials may be evolving into more of a level playing field – according to speakers last week at the CALSTART Annual Meeting and Blue Sky Award ceremony in Los Angeles.

           

          Automakers have given up fighting federal and state standards for fuel efficient, reduced carbon vehicles – replacing it with competition for leadership in a wide spectrum of alternative fuels and advanced vehicle technologies. “The industry is spending billions on technology,” said keynote speaker Christopher Grundler, director, office of transportation and air quality at the US Environmental Protection Agency. “They have to do their job to achieve fair competition.”

           

          This perspective was complemented by Janea Scott, commissioner at the California Energy Commission, during an afternoon speaker panel on private-public investment partnerships. “You don’t want to pick a winner technology,” Scott said. “You want to receive proposals and make the best decision. We’re creating a bigger pond with more competition.”

           

          Speakers acknowledged that the regulatory environment is certainly very challenging with California’s AB 32, low carbon fuel standards, and cap and trade credits; the status of Renewable Fuel Standard rules and credits; phase two of federal standards for heavy-duty vehicle fuel economy and emissions coming up; details on the US-China greenhouse gas emissions agreement being decided next year; and air pollution from goods movement and its impact on disadvantaged communities and others working at, and living near, ports and major interstate highways.

           

          CALSTART’s founding chairman and current president of the California Public Utilities Commission (PUC), helped put things in perspective. When he served as president of Southern California Edison during CALSTART’s creation in 1992, Michael Peevey said that all of the targets being hashed out by states and federal agencies seemed unattainable back then. Now the decisions are becoming more intricate, he said – such as whether the PUC should lift its ban on electric utilities deploying their own electric vehicle charging stations.

           

          The tension between California and the federal government (and automakers) was more of a battleground in the early days of CALSTART, but that is getting worked out. Grundler made some humorous comments about it while participating on another panel with Richard Corey, executive director of the California Air Resources Board; that came across in his comments on California considering itself its own sovereign nation and having to accept that fact that its slipped from the seventh largest economy in the world to the eleventh.

          Another colorful moment came up when Dave Barthmuss accepted a Blue Sky Award for his company, General Motors. Barthmuss acknowledged that he did look familiar to people from having been featured as the GM spokesman in “Who Killed the Electric Car?” While Barthmuss looked like one of the bad guys is that influential movie, things seemed to have changed. After taking the award for GM’s full suite of plug-in vehicles and its clean manufacturing, he was pleased to share his own pride in being an electric vehicle driver and for being part of efforts to get CALSTART employees to start driving Chevy Volts to work.

           

          The other winners of the Blue Sky Award were: California State Senator Fran Pavley became the first-ever second-time award winner for several accomplishments over the years, more recently for leading the creation of incentive programs to move clean transportation forward including bringing cap and trade funds to mobile sources. California State Senator Ricardo Lara was honored for leading Senate Bill 1204 that will help reduce pollution in communities living near freight corridors and ports, particularly in disadvantaged communities. California Assemblyman Henry Perea was acknowledged for his leadership role with Senator Pavley on the passage of Assembly Bill 8 to extend clean transportation incentive programs through 2023. Award winners acknowledged CALSTART for its role in getting important bills passed in Sacramento, and for helping their implementation go forward. (And many thanks to CALSTART for inviting Green Auto Market to serve as a supporting organization for the event.)

          Frito-Lay was given a Blue Sky Award for its large-scale commitment to alternative fuels; the company has made a strong investment in compressed natural gas and electric vehicles to its fleet and with its partners. Caterpillar Inc. was honored for developing and commercializing its Off-Road Large Size Hydraulic Hybrid Excavator. The hydraulic hybrid excavator captures and reuses energy that would normally be lost during earthmoving operations and reduces fuel consumption and CO2 emissions.

            Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach bringing opportunities for clean air improvements

            Ports of LA and Long BeachAs acknowledged during the annual CALSTART annual meeting and awards presentations, facing air pollution at freight corridors and ports is a serious challenge. Workers and local residents are prone to serious health hazards including asthma, lung cancer, and emphysema from toxic air pollutants. It is getting better at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach and the entire southern California region;  the cancer risk has dropped 65% since 2005, but it’s still considered to be too high and one of the worst in the nation. Incentive programs and cleaner fuels have slashed diesel emissions from trucks, ships, and other vehicles. For anyone living and working near the ports, there continues to be a strong demand for air quality to get better.

            Two meetings in the Los Angeles area last week gave me some hope for the future of clean transportation at the largest port area in the US.  On Monday afternoon, PortTech Los Angeles, a non-profit organization funded by the Port of Los Angeles, held its annual open house meeting. Guests were able to see PortTech’s expanded office facilities and view table displays from startups in PortTech’s newest portfolio of companies. Like LA Cleantech Incubator, PortTech helps cleantech entrepreneurs go from early startups to thriving businesses. Member companies are in a good place to support PortTech’s vision of advanced, clean technologies serving the port community.

            One of the displaying companies, Transpower, is manufacturing battery-electric drive systems for Class 8 trucks. The electric drive system offers lower lifecycle costs than diesel engines and is well suited for port drayage trucks, local delivery trucks, and refuse collection vehicles. NorthSouth GIS LLC (NSG) designs and deploys geospatial systems for ports. The company integrates these systems with other port systems, populates them with data, devises processes, and trains personnel with a focus on long-term sustainability. In September during the 5th annual PortTechEXPO, cleantech companies were able to connect with business prospects at Southern California’s ports and explore opportunities with ports worldwide working to achieve a more sustainable future.

            Another meeting last week focused on a test project for cargo trucks serving the ports. On Thursday, the e4 Mobility Alliance, which is managed by the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp., hosted a meeting featuring Dennis Rodriguez, the Southern California account manager for Siemens. Rodriguez gave a presentation on electric trucks participating in a test project in Carson, Calif. Siemens is providing electric drive systems that will operate on a catenary system, similar to what you see powering metro buses in San Francisco and other cities. Along with the overhead external conductive box and cable system that Siemens is providing, Volvo Trucks is supplying test freight carrier trucks.

            For Siemens, this technology has proven to be safe and efficient; trucks participating in previous tests have been able to perform at maximum weight loads and speeds. “Road freight emissions has become a big deal at ports,” Rodriguez said.

            This project with its mile-long path in Carson, is the first part of a multi-phase project Siemens is seeking support for. South Coast Air Quality Management District is providing funding for this project that will start up next year. Siemens is hoping that its catenary system could be part of a dedicated single lane within 710 freeway’s corridor project set to start up in the next five years. That 12-mile project is still seeking buy-in from cities along that stretch of the freeway and government agencies overseeing the region. The concept is to launch the corridor project in 2020 and complete it in 2030; it’s expected to create 500,000 project jobs and to help reduce harmful emissions.

             

              This Week’s Top 10: Audi takes on Tesla for wealthy eco-conscious buyers, Federal tax credits on AFVs extended

              by Jon LeSage, editor and publisher, Green Auto Market 

              Here’s my take on the 10 most significant and interesting occurrences during the past week…….

              1. Audi R8Audi takes on Tesla: Even though reaching out to upscale, climate change-conscious car shoppers probably won’t be enough to take electric vehicle sales to the next level, Audi thinks there’s enough potential in that segment to take on Tesla Motors. In 2017, Audi will be rolling out an electric crossover that will compete with Tesla for business among wealthy, environmentally conscious consumers. It will be a battery-powered version of the $115,900 R8 sports car – Audi’s first battery electric vehicle. It will follow deliveries of the A3 E-Tron plug-in hybrid hatchback this year. Competition with Tesla (and BMW) for the luxury electric car buyer market will be tough. Tesla Model S drivers who recently took a Consumer Reports survey say they’re more likely than Porsche owners (or any other brand) to buy one of these Tesla cars again. The car shopping experience is one of the reasons Tesla drivers are staying very loyal to the brand. Even though most franchised dealers hate Tesla for running their own stores, they are showing an example of what luxury car buyers are expecting from the experience. Major dealer chain Sonic Automotive was recently dubbed the “Tesla of dealers” by Morgan Stanley for giving their customers a faster and better buying experience.
              2. Tax credits on AFVs. If you’re looking for tax credits for vehicles running off of compressed natural gas, liquefied natural gas, and propane autogas, there’s good news. The House last week passed HR 5771, the Tax Increase Prevention Act of 2014, which includes a 50-cent per gallon tax credit through the end of this year. That credit had previously expired at the end of 2013, and the US Senate is now reviewing the bill.
              3. Simplifying electric vehicle (EV) charging monitoring and reporting. Siemen’s energy management division is working with Duke Energy on the next phase of a US Dept. of Energy-funded project. Siemens has what it says is the first Underwriters Laboratories (UL)-approved residential EV supply equipment (EVSE) to demonstrate the ability to monitor status, report energy use, and be controlled from the local area network and the cloud. That comes out of an 18-month test project to reduce cost and expand charging technologies.
              4. British OEMs “onshoring” jobs back to UK. British automakers are expected to create 50,000 new jobs in the UK over the next two years; 63% of them are planning on developing low-carbon or electric vehicle technology. According to a study by Lloyds Bank, 70% of car manufacturers or their supply chain partners plan to return more of their production to the UK; improved economic conditions there and a desire to support local communities are reasons why – along with creating more reliable and shorter supply chains.
              5. Ryder System joins Trucking Efficiency. Major fleet management and supply chain company Ryder System is supporting this joint initiative between the Carbon War Room and the North American Council for Freight Efficiency.org provides fleet owners and operators with data on available vehicle technologies and the benefits and challenges of deploying them.
              6. More workplace charging. Coca-Cola Company will provide electric vehicle charging at seven of its facilities across California, and NRG eVgo will install and manage them. It’s part of offering support with the state’s goal of bringing 1.5 million zero-emission vehicles to its roads by 2025.
              7. Diesel plug-in hybrid. Volkswagen will enter the plug-in hybrid diesel market through its Audi brand. The Audi Q7 will debut next year with gasoline and diesel powertrains, and a plug-in diesel will come later to Europe and the US.
              8. Getting NGV support in Washington. Executives from Daimler Trucks, UPS, Clean Energy Fuels, and other companies spoke last week before the US Senate Finance Committee asking for support of federal tax incentives for natural gas vehicles. High-ranking senators agreed that reform is needed on tax and energy policies to level the field for alterative fuels. However, how and when this will take shape was not resolved by the finance committee.
              9. Boeing 787 Dreamliner battery fire. National Transportation Safety Board reported that the lithium-ion battery fire last January in a parked Boeing 787 Dreamliner came from design and certification defects. The NTSB is recommending that the Federal Aviation Administration improve guidance and training provided to industry FAA certification engineers on safety assessments and compliance methods. NTSB made 15 safety recommendations to FAA, two to Boeing, and one to battery manufacturer GS Yuasa.
              10. Fuel Efficient Military Vehicles. GMZ Energy, which produces high temperature thermoelectric generation (TEG) solutions, announced the successful demonstration of a 1,000W diesel TEG that directly converts waste heat into usable electricity to increase fuel efficiency by reducing the load on the alternator. This announcement follows GMZ’s June 2014 demonstration of its 200W diesel TEG, and marks the next milestone in the $1.5 million vehicle efficiency program sponsored by the US Army Tank Automotive Research Development and Engineering Center (TARDEC) and administered by the US Dept. of Energy. TEG could save the US military billions of dollars per year by increasing fuel efficiency in Bradley Fighting Vehicles, which get less than one mile per gallon.

                Keeping hybrid and electric vehicle sales figures in perspective

                plug-in salesWe’ve seen sales numbers decline on hybrid and electric vehicles (EVs) in the past few months. When you look at the broad spectrum of market reports and analysis of that data, it’s a good reminder to keep things in perspective. That being said, here’s the latest…………

                • Automakers do believe that sales of hybrids and EVs will go up eventually; even though recent sales figures have declined, their production schedules are still staying on track – and that includes expecting demand for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. BMW now plans to sell a plug-in hybrid version of every major model in its vehicle lineup. Daimler will be investing 100 million euros to increase production of batteries for its EVs; Tesla is clearly optimistic with its grand vision of building the $5 billion “gigafactory.” Toyota is preparing to sell its first fuel-cell vehicle in Japan, which it recently named the Mirai. One of the reasons for the trend is that automakers do believe gasoline prices will eventually climb up. “We think the trend is clear,” said Ford CEO Mark Fields. “Over time, we believe gas prices around the world will continue moving higher.”
                • Hybrid sales were down nearly14% from last year in November, but EV sales were up slightly over last year and last month. Hybrids did see a 0.7% increase over October 2014. Hybrids are down nearly 5,000 units year-to-date from last year as of the end of November. Plug-in electric vehicles have a different story, according to Electric Drive Transportation Association: “With 9,785 plug in vehicles (3,609 plug-in hybrids and 6,176 battery EVs) sold last month, the total number of plug-ins that have been sold in 2014 rose to 107,487. This year-to-date cumulative number represents a 24 percent increase over the 86,912 plug-in vehicles that had been sold thru the same period last year,” the association reported.
                • Retail vehicle sales guru Art Spinella and his CNW Research firm just reported its consumer survey study indicating upper-middle class Americans are not crazy about buying EVs. “High Yield” new-car customers, upper-middle income Americans in their middle to late forties pre-disposed to buying a vehicle regularly, are not interested in buying an EV. That would be the case if the EV had identical prices as comparably-sized gasoline or diesel cars. That demographic group doesn’t represent the lion’s share of new vehicle sales in the US, but the study does point to a telling trend: you can’t depend on upper income early adopters to make a new technology successful. As suggested last week in Green Auto Market, long-term success in green vehicle sales will need to come from cost-sensitive fleets and consumers. They’ll be bringing in the larger sales numbers long term as these vehicles become more mainstream and accepted – and affordable. Marketing messages need to deliver more than concern over climate change or “keeping up with the Joneses” on cool new technologies.
                • The Nissan Leaf saw 2,687 units sold last month; what was its 22nd straight month of sales increases year-over-year. Overall, battery electric vehicles are continuing to see stronger sales than the plug-in hybrids in the US. There are likely a few influential factors behind it:  car shoppers are impressed and confident in the Nissan Leaf, Tesla Model S, and BMW i3; their lease programs are attractive and make the deals more affordable; there are more charging stations installed in major metros across the US, relieving range anxiety; and battery range is increasing with each new model year.
                • Keep your eyes on the big picture. When you look at studies that are being released, such as the new EV City Casebook, you’ll see signs that perspectives are changing on EV ownership in global markets (including the US) that should increase EV adoption. Fleets are definitely influencing this trend, with a good example coming from California-based consulting firm Vision Fleet and its fleet partners. In late October, Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard was enthusiastic to announce the city’s “Freedom Fleet,” which will bring in 425 plug-in sedans. That project with Vision Fleet is expected to save the city 2.2 million gallons of gasoline over the next decade. The greenhouse gas reduction will be impressive, too.

                  Ethanol sales may not be hurt by EPA decision on Renewable Fuel Standard

                  corn ethanolAre you producing and selling an alternative fuel that’s getting tangled up in regulatory limitations? No worries – just sell it overseas. While ethanol and other biofuels producers have been frustrated with delays in the Renewable Fuel Standard decision by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), exports of corn ethanol have increased 31% this year and have reached their highest level since 2011.

                  Ethanol used in gasoline will probably never hit the 15% ethanol E15 target that the EPA had been considering; and the 10% ethanol mark may be reduced by pressure being placed on the EPA by oil refineries and producers. Exporting petroleum products with the additive ethanol blend has been a big growth sector for petroleum products and ethanol in the past few years. The US passed Russia in 2010 to become the dominant exporter of petroleum products, and ethanol sales have increased with that growing overseas demand.

                  Archer-Daniels-Midland Co., Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc., and Valero Energy Corp., three of the four largest U.S. ethanol companies, say that ethanol exports have been a significant part of their revenue growth. “If we can’t sell it here, we’ll sell it someplace,” said Bob Dinneen, president and CEO of biofuels industry group Renewable Fuels Association (RFA). “We’re going to focus overseas.”

                  Exporting fuel has been a bit more difficult for liquefied natural gas (LNG). So far, the US Dept. of Energy (DOE) has approved each export application, but the approval process has been complicated. Some analysts worry that strong demand for US-drilled natural gas may drive up the price for LNG and compressed natural gas, but so far it remains stable for users of natural gas vehicles.

                  The shale-oil boom in the US has created a stream of oil and gas products being sold overseas; ethanol is seeing a record level of crops being grown for these exports. The US is now producing about 66 million metric tons more corn than 10 years ago; that’s nearly as much as the rest of the world will export this year. Overseas demand is keeping ethanol sales strong even though the EPA has been easing off the ethanol mandate for the past year.

                  Ethanol trade lobbyists have traveled to Peru, Panama, Japan, and South Korea and trips are planned to Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines this month to gain support for more overseas ethanol sales, according to RFA. A Commerce Department-sponsored trade mission to northern Brazil last year won sales contracts valued at $29 million, the RFA says. If the EPA mandates a lower volume of ethanol sales in US fuel, it probably won’t matter much for the ethanol industry.

                    This Week’s Top 10: BMW and Tesla deal didn’t actually take place, Wisconsin wants to tax EV and hybrid owners more

                    by Jon LeSage, editor and publisher, Green Auto Market 

                    Here’s my take on the 10 most significant and interesting occurrences during the past week…….

                    1. Elon MuskWell it looks like many of us fell for it on the BMW-Tesla deal. Last week, Tesla CEO Elon Musk told German media giant Der Spiegel that the two automakers were continuing talks that could set aside competition for the luxury electric car space and focus more on mutual gains. That could have meant combining “lightweighting” from BMW and advanced batteries from Tesla Motors and jointly creating better charging stations. Now, BMW told German business magazine Wirtschafts Woche that it doesn’t have plans for cooperation with Tesla and won’t be doing what other major OEMs have done in buying Tesla’s stock shares. That comes from an unnamed source at BMW. It could also have something to do with BMW digging plug-in hybrids over the battery-electric-only mindset of Tesla. BMW just launched a three-prong approach to bringing these extended-range plug-ins to China. One is a long-wheelbase 5-Series sedan, another is a prototype 3-Series sport sedan, and another project is the new Power eDrive system than can produce 670 horsepower. Tesla will be able to get over it; things are going well enough for the electric carmaker to ramp up its Fremont, Calif., production plant ahead of an expected production increase. Global demand is moving things along and will allow for building its all-wheel drive Dual Motor Model S and the start of its Model X crossover production, the company said.
                    2. State governments are looking more at electric vehicle (EV) and hybrid owners as a funding source. Wisconsin has joined five other states to impose a fee on fuel-efficient vehicles; EV and hybrid owners will get a $50 annual charge. The new fee has been designed “to ensure these owners continue to pay their fair share of the operating costs of our infrastructure,” said Wisconsin DOT Secretary Mark Gottlieb. Washington Governor Jay Inslee sees it another way; Inslee wants to extended a state tax break for EVs and look into giving them access to carpool lanes. Cutting carbon pollution and reducing dependence on fossil fuels gets support in the state, but others question whether EV owners should get preferences. Inslee would agree with many leaders mentioned in another Green Auto Market article – this is part of his larger effort to tackle climate change. One representative who heads the House Finance Committee has concerns about extending that tax break, which expires on July 1.
                    3. EPA’s Christopher Grundler makes Automotive News’ annual all-star list. Grundler, director, Office of Transportation and Air Quality at the US Environmental Protection Agency, has been acknowledged for the role he’s playing in guiding the agency through adoption of its tough emissions and fuel economy rules. Grundler has led offenses against automakers overstating their mpg stickers about their best-in-class fuel-efficient vehicles. Hyundai and Kia were recently hit with a $100 million civil penalty for overstating mileage along with other fines; other automakers have revised fuel economy labels, including Mini and Mercedes-Benz, and Grundler’s office has played a leading role in this tactic.
                    4. Fleets in Texas have access to an incentive for propane autogas vehicles. The Propane Council of Texas is offering up to a $7,500 incentive for purchasing a propane-powered vehicle for their commercial fleet. The program is capped at $15,000 available per fleet.
                    5. The Renault-Nissan Alliance has passed the 200,000 mark in electric vehicle (EV) sales. The global automaker says that about 150,000 of that has been Nissan EVs sold in the US, Asia, and Europe – mostly the Leaf but also the e-NV200 small commercial van that may be introduced into the US. Renault offers four EV models – with its Zoe and Kangoo ZE being top selling, followed by the Twizy and Fluence ZE.
                    6. Southern California Edison’s (SCE) energy storage may be good for electric vehicle (EV) batteries. Electric utility giant SCE is investing more than anyone else in storage – enough for 250 megawatts (MW) of energy storage. That started out as needing 50 MW to make up for the loss when its San Onofre nuclear power plant was taken offline due to safety concerns, but its order has been five times that need. Much of that storage is coming from lithium-ion battery cells similar to what’s being used now in electric vehicle battery packs. Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) systems may be used to turn these EVs into storage units for excess energy.
                    7. Shedding 700 pounds has been very good for F-150 fuel economy. Ford Motor Co. has increased the fuel efficiency of its 2015 F-150 pickup by 29% with its lighter-weight aluminum body. When equipped with a 2.7L V-6 EcoBoost engine, the truck is getting 26 mpg highway, 19 city, and 22 combined, according to the US Environmental Protection Agency.
                    8. Miami-Dade County, Fla., has added more hydraulic hybrid trash trucks to its fleet. That’s the third order of the trucks built with Parker Hannifin’s RunWise Advanced Series Hybrid Drive System, bringing the total in its fleet up to 64 of these vehicles. Using these hydraulic hybrids is reducing fuel consumption by up to 50%, according to Parker Hannifin.
                    9. Renewable natural gas is getting more support. A new report, “Decarbonizing the Gas Sector,” from the Bioenergy Association of California (BAC), makes some impressive statements about the fuel’s potential. Organic waste converted into biogas could meet more than 10% of California’s natural gas demand. According to BAC, total organic waste in the state could be used to produce 2.5 billion gge (gasoline gallon equivalents) of transportation fuel, enough to replace three quarters of all the diesel fuel used in the state.
                    10. Volkswagen has high hopes for its “Think Blue. Factory” program. The German automaker thinks it can reduce energy and waste consumption, along with CO2, waste, and solvent emissions, by 25% by 2018 compared to its 2010 levels. The company has already implemented more than 2,700 projects that have made its production processes 17% more environmentally sustainable over the past three years. Recycling and reusing cooling water at some of its plants has been one of the tactics producing benefits, Volkswagen said.